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Canada Inflation Slows a Tad More Than Expected in June Amid Easing Oil Prices

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Canada's consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.8% year over year in June, easing from a 3.2% annual increase in May, reflecting a sharp decline in oil prices, said the country's statistical agency on Monday.

June CPI was a tad lower than the 2.9% yearly consensus figure provided by MUFG before the data was released by Statistics Canada.

Gasoline prices increased at a slower year-over-year pace in June than in May, helping to ease headline CPI, said StatsCan. Excluding gasoline, inflation remained unchanged at 2.2% annually.

"While gasoline prices remained elevated due to the conflict in the Middle East, diplomatic talks and an interim ceasefire arrangement contributed to an easing of global oil prices in June, leading to a 10.2% month-over-month decline," added the Ottawa-based agency.

The non-seasonally adjusted CPI declined 0.4% in June, marking the largest monthly drop since December 2024. On a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI fell 0.1% month over month, the first decline since April 2025.

Traveller accommodation prices accelerated in June, rising 10.1% annually compared with 2.5% in May, driven by higher costs in Ontario and British Columbia, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver during World Cup events, added StatsCan. Passenger vehicle rental prices also increased 6.8% annually amid stronger travel demand.

The monthly and quarterly CPI reports, reported by Statistics Canada, measure the index level of prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services such as food, energy, vehicle, medical care, apparel, and housing. The core measure, which excludes food and energy due to their volatility, is closely watched by markets and the Bank of Canada as a sign of underlying inflation pressures.

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