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Toronto's Housing Is No Longer Detached From Reality, Says BMO

After correcting for four long years, there are signs of a bottom in at least one segment of the Greater Toronto housing market, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).The price of a single-family home edged higher in April and May, after tumbling nearly 26% since early 2022, noted the bank.While prices are still elevated, affordability has improved enough to draw in some pent-up demand, stated BMO.By contrast, the price of a condo continued to slide this spring and is down about 26% from its peak, pointed out BMO. Although many smaller units have become affordable, the market is saturated.For young, first-time buyers looking to get a foot on the housing ladder, condos are now an affordable option, but there is little urgency to act, added the bank.Meanwhile, larger families have been waiting patiently to get into the detached market. As rising incomes support affordability, this segment will likely recover first, according to BMO.

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Treasury6d ago

Canada's Population Decreases In Q1 On Lower Permanent Immigration, Limits to Non-Permanent Residents, More Deaths Than Births

The population of Canada was estimated at 41,417,056 on April 1, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous quarter, said the country's statistical agency Wednesday.Canada welcomed 83,149 permanent immigrants in Q1 2026. This represents a decline of 20.2% compared with the number of permanent immigrants welcomed in the same quarter of 2025 (104,210) and is in line with the lower target established by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada for the 2026 calendar year, noted Statistics Canada.Natural increase was negative (-155) in Q1, meaning there were more deaths than births in Canada during this quarter, added StatsCan. By comparison, the natural increase in Q1 2025 was positive, at 983. Natural increase is usually low during the winter months, because there are typically fewer births and more deaths during the colder months. Natural increase was also negative in Q1 of 2022 and 2023.The preliminary number of non-permanent residents (NPR) decreased by 117,879 people in Q1 2026.Larger-than-usual updates to NPR estimates for recent years are anticipated, given the rapidly evolving context and shifting international migration policies. Over the last few months, the number of permit extensions granted by Immigration Refugees and Citizenship Canada has increased, while associated processing times have lengthened.As a result, updates of a greater magnitude to recent NPR estimates may occur, which could lead to more pronounced upward changes to population estimates, according to the Ottawa-based agency.

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Treasury6d ago

Canada's New Housing Price Index Slighty Lower In May

Canada's new housing price index (NHPI) shed 0.3% month over month in May, said the country's statistical agency Wednesday.The NHPI is a monthly series that measures changes over time in the contractors' selling prices of new residential houses, where detailed specifications pertaining to each house remain the same between two consecutive periods.The survey covers the following dwelling types: new single homes, semi-detached homes and town homes (row or garden homes).

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Treasury6d ago

Brief: Canada's New Housing Price Index Falls 0.3% M/M in May

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Treasury6d ago

Brief: Canada's Q1 Population Decreases 0.1% Q/Q; Continues Downward Trend

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Treasury6d ago

BMO On The Day Ahead In Canada

Statistics Canada will release quarterly population figures at 8:30 a.m. ET, Wednesday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).The StatsCan population figures are likely to show a continued historic decline, noted the bank.Canada will also publish the new housing price index (NHPI) for May at 8:30 a.m. ET, Wednesday. BMO said the NHPI could increase slightly in May after a sizeable decrease in April, while remaining about 2% below year-ago levels.

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Treasury6d ago

Scotiabank Asks If A Recovery Is in Sight After Canada's Existing Home Sales Rise in May

After having declined by nearly 11% seasonally adjusted (SA) from November 2025 to March 2026, Canada's housing sales have since recovered more than half of this decline with increases in April and May, said Scotiabank.In this latter month, national sales posted a 5.5% (SA) monthly rise, the strongest since October 2024, noted the bank.From April to May, national new listings declined by 1% (SA), essentially continuing their modest downward trend that started in September 2025. From May 2025 to the same month in 2026, national new listings declined 7.9% non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) with most local markets Scotiabank tracks contributing to this national annual decline.With the rise in sales and the decline in new listings from April to May, the national sales-to-new listings ratio rose from 46.2 to 49.2% (SA). This indicator also edged up 2.2 percentage points (SA) from the same month in 2025. This performance suggests a tightening in market conditions over these periods, but this ratio has been hovering in the lower half of the balanced conditions range -- hence close to buyers' favorable zone -- since March of 2024, and indeed for most of the period since Spring 2022.National sales increased for a second consecutive month in May, which is welcome news, and in line with Scotiabank's expectations of some pick-up in housing demand as the ongoing economic uncertainty related to global trade tensions starts fading.The bank added it must witness a sustained upward trend in housing demand and tightening in market conditions before it can see a recovery in the national house price, and especially in Ontario and British Columbia markets given their influence on national figures.Housing demand in recent years has been weakened by first the rise in mortgage rates on the heels of the tightening cycle for monetary policy from early-2022 to mid-2023, and second by the increase in global trade frictions and resulting economic uncertainty triggered by the United States administration since shortly after the November 2024 presidential election, stated Scotiabank.Housing market conditions were further softened by the robust performance of housing starts in recent years, including the sharp rise in recently completed and unabsorbed housing units, which provided additional supply options to potential buyers.

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Treasury6d ago

Commerzbank on Overnight News

Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Wednesday highlighted:Markets: United States Treasuries steady in Asia after yields rose into the New York close. Brent drops to US$78.3/barrel. U.S. equity futures and Nikkei are up, European futures a tad lower. The euro (EUR) remains steady around $1.161.Iran war: 14-point memorandum of understanding draft states that the Strait of Hormuz should be reopened, Iran won't produce nuclear weapons, all sanctions lifted, US$300 billion development fund launched and a 60-day period to reach final agreement (Bloomberg). Some U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, doubt that Iran is willing to make meaningful nuclear concessions (Telegraph).==EUROPE:ECB: European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf warns that price pressure lingers even if the conflict ends.France: The central bank (BdF) lowers 2026 growth forecast to 0.5%, from 0.9%, citing uncertainty from the war in Iran.Germany: Prime Minister Friedrich Merz tells President Donald Trump that Germany is ready to contribute to the Hormuz mission.Italy: BTP Italia Si orders amount to 2.2 billion euros on the second day, taking total orders to 5.4 billion euros.==ASIA:China: The central bank (PBoC) is working on a new policy framework with a focus on the overnight rate. A new repo facility will be created for foreign central banks to generate yuan (CNY) liquidity.

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Treasury6d ago

International Investors Are Big Buyers of Canadian Dollar Bonds, Says BMO

International investors were big net buyers of Canadian securities in April to the tune of $46.9 billion, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).That's among the larger inflows over the past few years, noted the bank.Buying was focused in federal and provincial government debt, as well as corporate bonds, pointed out BMO. Equities saw a decent inflow too, while money markets had an outflow.The net inflow to federal government bonds was a record $27.7 billion in the month, while provincial bonds were just short of a record at $10.6 billion.Notably, April's net inflow to Canadian dollar-denominated bondswas a record $36.2 billion, added the bank. And that's before the recent "huge" issues from Google and Amazon.

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Treasury6d ago

SocGen's Overnight Economic News Summary

Societe Generale in its early Wednesday economic news summary pointed out:Brent testing 200dma at US$78.4/barrel, support below US$75/US$73, resistance US$86/barrel. Bund key support 2.90%, United States 10-year on 50dma (4.42%). The U.S. to grant immediate waivers for Iran's oil exports after the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (WSJ). Iran repeats 2015 commitment to never produce nuclear weapons, concessions to be discussed during 60-day technical negotiations (CNN).United Kingdom's May consumer price index below forecast excluding services: headline unchanged at 2.8% year over year, core up to 2.6% versus 2.5%, services accelerate to 3.7%.Sweden's Riksbank keeps policy rate on hold at 1.75%, neutral bias. Statement: inflation is currently below the target and the recent outcomes have been clearly lower than the forecast in March.Day ahead: Federal Reserve FOMC forecast is for no change, U.S. retail sales. Brazil's central bank forecast to cut by 25bps. European Central Bank speaker Sleijpen. Eurozone final CPI, ECB wage tracker. South Africa's CPI.Nikkei +0.7%, EUR 10-year IRS -1bp at 2.965%, Gold -0.3% at US$4,327/oz.

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Treasury6d ago

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Steady-to-Higher at 4.43%, 2-Year Rate Leaning Slightly Higher to 4.05% Early Wednesday

Treasury6d ago

Most US Treasury Yields Steady-to-Slightly Higher Early Wednesday Ahead of Fed Announcements, Chair Kevin Warsh's Press Briefing, Retail Sales Data

Treasury6d ago

Market Chatter: Philippines Raises $2.5 Billion from 10-Year Bond Sale

The Philippines raised $2.5 billion through the sale of 10-year bonds, marking its second global bond sale in 2026, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday, citing a person familiar with the matter.The bonds, sold Tuesday, will yield 92.5 basis points more than Treasuries against the initial talk of yielding about 125 basis points, the report said.The new dollar-denominated bonds are expected to be eligible for JPMorgan's Emerging Markets Bond Index, Bloomberg said.The country plans to borrow 2.68 trillion pesos this year, including 302 billion pesos from overseas markets, the report said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Treasury6d ago

Enbridge and Enbridge Pipelines Complete a Debt Exchange Transaction

Enbridge (ENB.TO, ENB) and its Enbridge Pipelines Inc. unit (EPI), on Tuesday said they closed a transaction to exchange all outstanding series of EPI's medium-term note debentures for an equal principal amount of newly issued Enbridge medium-term notes with identical financial terms.According to the statement, the note exchange transaction gives EPI the flexibility to operate its business, while also delivering a range of operational, structural and capital markets benefits to EPI, Enbridge and the former EPI note holders.Enbridge shares closed down $0.45 to $77.93 on Toronto Stock Exchange on Tuesday.

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Treasury7d ago

US Treasury Closing Levels

3:00 Tuesday vs 3:00 Monday2yr 99-29 vs 99-28; 4.045% vs 4.064%5yr 99-28 vs 99-23; 4.149% vs 4.186%10yr 99-18+ vs 99-07+; 4.426% vs 4.469%30yr 101-03+ vs 100-14+; 4.927% vs 4.969%2/10 37.825 bps vs 40.278 bps5/30 77.641 bps vs 78.141 bps

Treasury7d ago

Fairfax Financial Holdings Announces Completion of Kennedy Wilson Take-Private Transaction

Fairfax Financial Holdings (FFH.TO) on Tuesday said the acquisition of Kennedy-Wilson Holdings by an entity affiliated with a consortium led by William McMorrow, chief executive officer of Kennedy Wilson, certain other senior executives of the company (collectively, the KW Management Group), and certain affiliates of Fairfax for US$10.90 per share in cash pursuant to a merger agreement has been completed."The KW Management Group, led by William McMorrow, has effective and operational control of and continues to lead and have ultimate responsibility for Kennedy Wilson and its subsidiaries while Fairfax holds a majority of the economic interest," said Fairfax.In addition, an affiliate of the consortium entered into a term loan credit agreement pursuant to which it obtained a three-year US$1.3 billion term loan facility, it stated."In connection with the Credit Agreement, Fairfax agreed to provide a stand-by guarantee pursuant to which Fairfax would agree, upon the occurrence of certain events under the Credit Agreement, to guarantee in favour of the lenders the obligations of the Borrower under the Credit Agreement," added Fairfax.The company's shares were last seen up C$8.70 at C$2,277.23 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.Price: $2277.23, Change: $+8.69, Percent Change: +0.38%

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Treasury7d ago

US 20-Year Auction High Yield Falls from Previous Month, Demand Higher

The US Treasury's 20-year auction hit a high yield of 4.927% on Tuesday, down from the 5.122% high in the previous auction.The bid to cover ratio for the auction was 2.75, above the 2.55 ratio in the previous auction.Dealers represented 51.87% of the bids, with direct bidders at 12.65% and indirect bidders at 35.47%.For takedown, dealers took 8.48%, with direct bidders at 19.94% and indirect bidders at 71.57%.

Treasury7d ago

US 20-Year High Yield 4.927% vs 5.122% Previous; Bid/Cover 2.75 vs 2.55 Previous

Treasury7d ago

Provincial Variation in Canada's Housing Market Conditions Remains "Stark", Says BMO

The regional variation in housing market conditions remains stark in Canada, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).At the strong end, Quebec and Atlantic Canada are seeing firmly balanced or sellers' markets, with house price momentum still running positive, noted the bank. While national home prices are still falling, all major markets east of, and including, Montreal are posting price gains from a year ago.Alberta markets have pivoted from strength to softness, pointed out BMO. Sales-to-new listings ratios have slipped below 60% in Calgary and Edmonton, which is still balanced territory, but well down from recent readings. Sales in both markets are down meaningfully from a year ago, and prices are down roughly 2%.Southern Ontario is still the weak spot, especially in the condo space, stated the bank. As of May, condo prices across the province were down 8.3% year over year, with some exurban Greater Toronto Area markets under more pressure, with double-digit declines in Niagara, Kitchener-Waterloo and Barrie. Single-detached prices, however, are down roughly half that amount from a year ago, and have now posted two months of modest gains.Vancouver and some other markets across British Columbia remain weak as well, with elevated inventories and poor sales activity still dragging down prices. Though Vancouver sales are picking up off the floor (+3.4% year over year), and price declines are moderating, added BMO.

Treasury7d ago

Renewables May Bridge Alberta's AI Data Center Power Gap, Says TD

Alberta aims to position itself as the premier location for building artificial intelligence (AI) data centers in North America, said TD.However, limited electric grid capacity is slowing development, writes the bank in a note to clients.Although the province has abundant natural-gas resources, expansion of gas generation is challenged by global turbine shortages and rising capital costs of new gas generation, points out TD.The global gas-turbine market is dominated by a handful of companies. The major manufacturers are said to be facing order backlogs stretching over five years for large turbines. Wait times for smaller turbines are shorter but rising. Equipment shortages have already contributed to the cancellation of gas power plant projects in the United States.Given the huge volume of data-center capacity seeking to connect to the Alberta grid, the province is exploring a 'bring your own generation' model as an interim solution, states the bank. While new gas generation is the preferred resource for powering surging AI-energy demand as seen in the U.S., ongoing gas-turbine shortages could create opportunities for other sources of power, including renewables.For some of the Alberta data-center projects, solar and wind could offer a relatively faster pathway to meet their electricity demand. In addition, battery costs have been falling steadily, reaching their lowest level in 2025, down 27% from 2024, which makes hybrid renewable-battery projects more cost competitive, adds TD. Storage helps firm up intermittent generation from solar and wind, making the hybrid systems better suited to power data centers, though grid backup will still be necessary.However, uncertainty around power project economics will likely persist for some time as disruptions to gas and critical mineral supply chains caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will take months to resolve, assuming the new deal between the U.S. and Iran leads to lasting peace, according to the bank.

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Showing 61-80 of 1115

Treasury6d ago

Scotiabank Asks If A Recovery Is in Sight After Canada's Existing Home Sales Rise in May

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