Higher long-term government bond yields are "somewhat unnerving" but also are a return to norms seen before the 2008 global financial crisis, according to BMO Capital Markets.
The 30-year Treasury yield has moved above 5.2%, its highest level since 2007, before the crisis pushed interest rates lower worldwide, said Douglas Porter, BMO's chief economist, in a note Thursday. The 30-year Government of Canada bond yield is hovering around 4%, moving toward the strongest level since 2010, according to BMO.
Canadian 30-year yields were up 1.1 basis points early Friday at 4.014% while US notes were up slightly at 5.22%.
"Perhaps the bigger story here is the roughly 120 bp spread with Treasuries; while not an extreme, it's much wider than the 50 bp norm of the past 20 years," Porter wrote in the note.
This reflects a combination of lower Canadian short-term rates, a more moderate inflation environment and a relatively more favorable fiscal outlook, added Porter.
US yields surged this week after a "mini-revolt" in bond markets following the Federal Reserve's rate hold and press conference by Chair Kevin Warsh, Porter said. "Still, the move higher is more a full return to pre-GFC norms, and not the beginning of a long-term upward march in yields."