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Canadian wholesale sales were flat in May at C$90.0 billion after a 1.4% gain in April, with declines in four of seven subsectors, the country's statistical agency said Wednesday.The largest declines came from food, beverage and tobacco as well as personal and household goods, which were partly offset by a jump in non-agricultural chemical and allied product sales, Statistics Canada said in a statement.The trade data excludes oil, oil products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain. Compared with May of the previous year, wholesale trade was up 7.4%.MUFG said before the release of the data that the consensus expected wholesale sales to dip by 0.7% on the month.Wholesale inventories fell 1.1% month over month in May to C$137.7 billion, added StatsCan. The inventory-to-sales ratio, which measures the time in months required to exhaust inventories if sales remain at current levels, improved slightly, declining to 1.53 from 1.55 in April.

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Treasury23d ago

Canada's Manufacturing Sales Rise as Expected in May, Reaching Record High

Canadian manufacturing sales rose 1.3% month over month in May to a record C$78.1 billion, marking a fourth straight monthly gain, the country's statistical agency said on Wednesday.Sales rose in 14 of 21 subsectors, led by monthly gains in transportation equipment, which was up 4.1% and chemicals, gaining 4.6%, according to Statistics Canada. The largest decline was in electrical equipment, appliances and components, which fell 5.8% on the month.Bank of Montreal Capital Markets said before the release of the data that it expected manufacturing sales to advance 1.1%.Manufacturing inventories reached a record C$125.9 billion, rising 0.5% monthly on increases in goods in process and raw materials, added StatsCan. The inventory-to-sales ratio, which measures the time in months that would be required to exhaust inventories if sales were to remain at their current level, edged down to 1.61 from 1.62 in April.Unfilled orders rose 6.7% monthly to a record C$131.5 billion, driven by a surge in transportation equipment orders, particularly in the aerospace sector, according to the Ottawa-based agency.Year over year, manufacturing sales rose 13.4% in May.

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Treasury23d ago

Statistics Canada Says May Manufacturing Sales Reach Record High

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Treasury23d ago

Canada's May Total Manufacturing Inventories Up 0.5% M/M; Unfilled Orders Add 6.7% M/M

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Treasury23d ago

Canada's Manufacturing Sales Rise 1.3% M/M in May; BMO Saw 1.1% M/M Gain

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Treasury23d ago

UBS Expects Bank of Canada to Stay Put, Sees Limited Scope for Canadian Dollar Gains

The Canadian dollar's recent gains may be difficult to sustain as the Bank of Canada is unlikely to significantly shift its policy stance at Wednesday's policy meeting, prompting markets to reassess expectations for future rate hikes, according to UBS Global Research.USD/CAD has already eased from overbought levels, declining from a recent high of 1.4250 to around 1.4150, in line with the typical size of previous one-month technical corrections, wrote the bank in a note Wednesday. A rebound in oil prices has also supported the Canadian dollar."The main challenge we see is the market now prices a 25bp BoC hike this year, which we do not think will be delivered," wrote UBS foreign exchange strategists in the note.A repricing of those expectations could put recent Canadian dollar gains under pressure, they added.Canada's central bank is slated to release its policy decision at 9:45 a.m. ET Wednesday.The BoC faces a challenging balance between weak economic activity and rising consumer inflation expectations. With economists expecting little change in its messaging, the immediate impact on the Canadian dollar is likely to be limited, said UBS.Broader US dollar and Federal Reserve developments are expected to remain the key drivers of USD/CAD, according to the bank.

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Treasury23d ago

MUFG Sees Limited Upside for Canadian Dollar Ahead of BoC Decision

The Canadian dollar's upside is likely to be limited as the Bank of Canada is seen maintaining a cautious policy stance on Wednesday amid a mixed economic outlook and easing inflation pressures, according to MUFG Bank.With markets pricing nearly 20 basis points of tightening by year-end, cautious BoC messaging that signals a prolonged hold could challenge current rate expectations, wrote Derek Halpenny, head of research at MUFG, in the note.While yield spreads have recently turned more supportive of a lower USD/CAD, they "are still at levels that point to downside risks" for the Canadian dollar, added Halpenny.Trade uncertainty, potential equity volatility from Artificial Intelligence-related concerns and a weaker link between crude prices and the Canadian dollar also constrain the loonie's upside, said the bank. With the BoC likely to remain on hold, Canadian dollar "risks are skewed to the downside."Canada's central bank is scheduled to release its policy decision at 9:45 a.m. ET Wednesday, with a press conference led by Governor Tiff Macklem set for an hour later.

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Treasury23d ago

CREA Cuts 2026 Canada Home Sales Forecast on Weak First Half

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) cut its 2026 home sales forecast, citing a weaker-than-expected first half and a delayed recovery across several markets, reversing its earlier call for growth.Home sales are forecast to slip 1.4% this year from 2025 to 463,336, said CREA in a note Wednesday. In April, it had predicted a 1% annual gain.The downgrade reflects weaker population growth and persistent supply constraints in several markets, particularly Quebec and the East Coast, according to CREA. Ontario is the only province in Canada expected to post higher sales than last year.Despite the weaker sales outlook, CREA sees the national average home price to rise 1.1% this year to C$686,710, largely unchanged from its previous estimate.Looking further ahead, CREA expects the housing market recovery to gain momentum in 2027, with national sales forecast to rise 3.7% to 480,567 units as stable interest rates and improving demand draw buyers back. The average home price is projected to increase 1.1% to C$694,164.

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Treasury23d ago

US 10-Year Yield Rises 2.3 Basis Points to 4.61%, 2-Year Rate Climbs 2.6 Basis Points to 4.22% Early Wednesday

Treasury23d ago

US Treasury Yields Rise Early Wednesday Ahead of Producer Price Inflation, Fed Chair Warsh Testimony as Iran Strikes Intensify

Treasury24d ago

US Treasury Closing Levels

3:00 Tuesday vs 3:00 Monday2yr 99-27 vs 99-23; 4.191% vs 4.263%5yr 99-04 vs 98-30; 4.319% vs 4.363%10yr 98-24+ vs 98-04+; 5.098% vs 4.610%30yr 98-18 vs 98-15+; 5.093% vs 5.098%2/10 39.005 bps vs 34.489 bps5/30 77.198 bps vs 73.280 bps

Treasury24d ago

USMCA Trade Deal Matters for Canada's Trade Outlook, CIBC Says

The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade, or USMCA, remains a key safeguard for Canadian exporters and any US withdrawal would be a significant blow to Canada's economic outlook, according to CIBC Economics.Higher U.S. tariffs have already weighed on exports in sectors such as autos and lumber, while Canada's heavy reliance on the American market leaves it more exposed than many peers, chief economist Avery Shenfeld said in a Friday note.Canadian manufacturers also face a growing risk of shifting production to the United States if trade barriers continue to rise, the bank said.USMCA, or CUSMA as it's known in Canada, has not fully shielded Canada from sector-specific tariffs, but it has exempted most compliant goods. Without the agreement, Canada could face broader tariffs and trade restrictions as the United States. expands its use of trade and national security measures, CIBC added.The July 1 deadline to extend CUSMA passed without an agreement.A USMCA extension remains the more likely outcome, preserving integrated trade between the United States, Canada and Mexico, according to the bank. Keeping the agreement and easing trade barriers would be far more supportive for Canada's economy than further escalation.

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Treasury24d ago

Royal LePage Raises Canada's Q4 Home Price Growth Forecast to 2%

Canada's housing market is seen rising more than previously expected in the last quarter of 2026 as price gains in markets where demand continues to outpace supply, according to a Royal LePage survey published Tuesday.Royal LePage predicts Canadian home prices will rise 2.0% annually in the fourth quarter of the year, reflecting an upgrade from its previous 1.0% forecast given in April.Quebec City is projected to record the strongest home price growth, with values expected to increase 8% annually in the fourth quarter, according to the forecast. The Greater Montreal Area and Winnipeg follow with estimated gains of 5%, while Halifax, Edmonton, and Regina are each expected to see prices rise 4%.Home prices in the Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto Areas are projected to decline by 3.5% and 2.0%, respectively.

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