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CREA Cuts 2026 Canada Home Sales Forecast on Weak First Half

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The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) cut its 2026 home sales forecast, citing a weaker-than-expected first half and a delayed recovery across several markets, reversing its earlier call for growth.

Home sales are forecast to slip 1.4% this year from 2025 to 463,336, said CREA in a note Wednesday. In April, it had predicted a 1% annual gain.

The downgrade reflects weaker population growth and persistent supply constraints in several markets, particularly Quebec and the East Coast, according to CREA. Ontario is the only province in Canada expected to post higher sales than last year.

Despite the weaker sales outlook, CREA sees the national average home price to rise 1.1% this year to C$686,710, largely unchanged from its previous estimate.

Looking further ahead, CREA expects the housing market recovery to gain momentum in 2027, with national sales forecast to rise 3.7% to 480,567 units as stable interest rates and improving demand draw buyers back. The average home price is projected to increase 1.1% to C$694,164.

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