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Treasury
US Treasury Closing Levels
3:00 Tuesday vs 3:00 Monday2yr 99-27 vs 99-23; 4.191% vs 4.263%5yr 99-04 vs 98-30; 4.319% vs 4.363%10yr 98-24+ vs 98-04+; 5.098% vs 4.610%30yr 98-18 vs 98-15+; 5.093% vs 5.098%2/10 39.005 bps vs 34.489 bps5/30 77.198 bps vs 73.280 bps
Treasury
USMCA Trade Deal Matters for Canada's Trade Outlook, CIBC Says
The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade, or USMCA, remains a key safeguard for Canadian exporters and any US withdrawal would be a significant blow to Canada's economic outlook, according to CIBC Economics.Higher U.S. tariffs have already weighed on exports in sectors such as autos and lumber, while Canada's heavy reliance on the American market leaves it more exposed than many peers, chief economist Avery Shenfeld said in a Friday note.Canadian manufacturers also face a growing risk of shifting production to the United States if trade barriers continue to rise, the bank said.USMCA, or CUSMA as it's known in Canada, has not fully shielded Canada from sector-specific tariffs, but it has exempted most compliant goods. Without the agreement, Canada could face broader tariffs and trade restrictions as the United States. expands its use of trade and national security measures, CIBC added.The July 1 deadline to extend CUSMA passed without an agreement.A USMCA extension remains the more likely outcome, preserving integrated trade between the United States, Canada and Mexico, according to the bank. Keeping the agreement and easing trade barriers would be far more supportive for Canada's economy than further escalation.
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Treasury
Royal LePage Raises Canada's Q4 Home Price Growth Forecast to 2%
Canada's housing market is seen rising more than previously expected in the last quarter of 2026 as price gains in markets where demand continues to outpace supply, according to a Royal LePage survey published Tuesday.Royal LePage predicts Canadian home prices will rise 2.0% annually in the fourth quarter of the year, reflecting an upgrade from its previous 1.0% forecast given in April.Quebec City is projected to record the strongest home price growth, with values expected to increase 8% annually in the fourth quarter, according to the forecast. The Greater Montreal Area and Winnipeg follow with estimated gains of 5%, while Halifax, Edmonton, and Regina are each expected to see prices rise 4%.Home prices in the Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto Areas are projected to decline by 3.5% and 2.0%, respectively.
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