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Research

Phillip Securities Upgrades Spotify Technology to Buy From Accumulate, $650 Price Target

Spotify Technology (SPOT) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $601.06, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

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Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Advance Late Afternoon

Consumer stocks were higher late Tuesday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) up 0.5% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) adding 0.1%.Redbook US same-store sales rose by 8.7% from a year earlier in the week ended Aug. 1 after an 8.3% year-over-year increase in the previous week. "Shoppers took advantage of the annual sales tax holidays for school supplies and clothing in Arkansas, New Mexico, Tennessee, and West Virginia," Redbook said.In corporate news, McDonald's (MCD) Q2 revenue fell short of market expectations on Tuesday as comparable sales growth in the US slowed on a yearly basis amid a challenging consumer environment. Its shares were still up 1.2%.Nike (NKE) shares fell 2.3% after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to underweight from neutral, and cut the price target to $40 from $47.Spotify (SPOT) issued a stronger-than-expected Q3 revenue outlook, even though it said certain free-tier limitations in emerging markets could impact active users. Its shares were down 1.1%.Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is considering options for its China business, including finding local partners to help grow the business, Bloomberg reported. The company is working with an adviser to review its Chinese assets, and it may sell a stake in the unit, which could be valued at several hundred million dollars, the report said. Abercrombie shares rose 1.1%.

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Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Rise in Afternoon Trading

Consumer stocks were higher Tuesday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) each adding 0.2%.Redbook US same-store sales rose by 8.7% from a year earlier in the week ended Aug. 1 after an 8.3% year-over-year increase in the previous week. "Shoppers took advantage of the annual sales tax holidays for school supplies and clothing in Arkansas, New Mexico, Tennessee, and West Virginia," Redbook said.In corporate news, McDonald's (MCD) Q2 revenue fell short of market expectations on Tuesday as comparable sales growth in the US slowed on a yearly basis amid a challenging consumer environment. Its shares were still up 1.1%.Spotify (SPOT) issued a stronger-than-expected Q3 revenue outlook, even though it said certain free-tier limitations in emerging markets could impact active users. Its shares were down 0.7%.Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is considering options for its China business, including finding local partners to help grow the business, Bloomberg reported. The company is working with an adviser to review its Chinese assets, and it may sell a stake in the unit, which could be valued at several hundred million dollars, the report said. Abercrombie shares rose 0.5%.

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Spotify Issues Strong Revenue Outlook, Flags Hit to Active Users
US Markets

Spotify Issues Strong Revenue Outlook, Flags Hit to Active Users

Spotify (SPOT) issued a stronger-than-expected third-quarter revenue outlook, even though it said certain free-tier limitations in emerging markets could impact active users.The audio-streaming platform expects third-quarter revenue of 5 billion euros ($5.76 billion), ahead of the FactSet-polled consensus of 4.93 billion euros. Premium subscribers are seen growing by 5 million sequentially to 305 million, versus Wall Street's 304.9 million target.The company is adding friction to its free tier through factors including ad load adjustments in select emerging markets to drive "higher user conversion and revenue growth," co-Chief Executive Alex Norstrom said during an earnings call, according to a FactSet transcript."Yes, this will show itself in our (third-quarter monthly active users), but we believe it's well worth it," Norstrom added. "We do not expect it to come at the expense of our (premium) subscriber growth."The company guided monthly active users to grow by 11 million to 788 million in the third quarter, while analysts expected 792.9 million. The expected net addition is a slowdown from 16 million sequential growth in the second quarter to 777 million users, compared with the Street's 777.5 million view.Spotify swung to second-quarter earnings of 2.61 euros per share from a loss of 0.42 euros a year earlier, missing the FactSet EPS consensus of 2.76 euros. Revenue increased 14% to 4.78 billion euros, just shy of the average analyst estimate of 4.79 billion euros.Premium revenue in the June quarter rose 15% year over year to 4.33 billion euros, compared with market expectations of 4.34 billion euros. Premium subscribers increased 9% to 300 million, exceeding analysts' projection of 299.2 million.Morgan Stanley expects Spotify's stock to move higher amid a reacceleration in revenue growth and margin expansion, according to a note e-mailed Monday. Spotify reported second-quarter gross margin of 33.4% compared with 31.5% in the prior-year period.Spotify's New York Stock Exchange-listed shares were little changed in Tuesday midday trade, and have declined 16% this year.Price: $487.91, Change: $+1.57, Percent Change: +0.32%

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Sectors

Sector Update: Tech Stocks Rise Premarket Tuesday

Technology stocks were rising premarket Tuesday, with the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) up 2.1% and the State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) 1.3% higher.Palantir Technologies (PLTR) stock was up more than 16% after the company raised its 2026 revenue guidance as Q2 revenue increased year over year.Spotify Technology (SPOT) shares were down more than 5% after the company reported Q2 earnings and revenue that missed analysts' expectations.On Semiconductor (ON) stock was up more than 6% after the company posted higher Q2 adjusted earnings and revenue.

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Stocks Rise Pre-Bell Ahead of Latest Round of Earnings; Investors Gauge Uncertainty Over Potential US-Iran Deal
US Markets

Stocks Rise Pre-Bell Ahead of Latest Round of Earnings; Investors Gauge Uncertainty Over Potential US-Iran Deal

US equity futures were tracking in the green on Tuesday as traders await the latest batch of corporate earnings and assess ongoing uncertainty over a potential resolution to the Middle East conflict.The S&P 500 rose 0.2% in premarket activity, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq gained 0.3% each. All three main indexes finished Monday trading up, with the Dow notching a record closing high.Caterpillar (CAT), Merck (MRK), McDonald's (MCD), Pfizer (PFE), Spotify Technology (SPOT), Transdigm (TDG), Rockwell Automation (ROK), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), BioNTech (BNTX) and DuPont de Nemours (DD) are all scheduled to report their latest financial results before the bell.SpaceX (SPCX) shares were up 2% pre-bell with the rocket and satellite company expected to release its first quarterly results since going public after the markets close, along with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Arista Networks (ANET), Amgen (AMGN) and Gilead Sciences (GILD).Palantir Technologies' (PLTR) stock jumped 15% early Tuesday as the company lifted its full-year revenue guidance on the back of stronger-than-expected second-quarter results. Snap (SNAP) climbed 7.3% after the social media company announced second-quarter results above Wall Street's estimates.President Donald Trump reportedly said Monday that the latest round of talks between the US and Iran is the "last chance" for Tehran to "sign a good document." Trump recently called off a planned attack on Iran.However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei reportedly ruled out an immediate plan to negotiate with Washington. Tehran was in talks with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important chokepoint for crude flows, Baghaei reportedly said.West Texas Intermediate crude oil inclined 1.6% to $81.64 a barrel before the opening bell, while Brent advanced 2.3% to $85.66."Hopes of a peace deal in the Middle East weighed on crude prices," D.A. Davidson said in a Monday client note.Treasury yields were trending higher in premarket action, with the two-year rate ticking up 1 basis point to 4.27% and the 10-year rate adding 2.2 basis points to 4.71%.Tuesday's economic calendar has the international trade in goods and services report for June at 8:30 am ET, followed by the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for the same month at 10 am.Gold moved up 0.3% to $4,103 per troy ounce, while bitcoin declined 0.7% to $63,441.

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Spotify's Path to Sales Growth Reacceleration, Margin Expansion Should Drive Stock Higher, Morgan Stanley Says
US Markets

Spotify's Path to Sales Growth Reacceleration, Margin Expansion Should Drive Stock Higher, Morgan Stanley Says

Spotify Technology's (SPOT) shares should move higher, driven by factors such as its path to a reacceleration in revenue growth and margin expansion, Morgan Stanley said in a note e-mailed Monday.The brokerage expects features including audiobooks, video podcasts, and generative artificial intelligence mixing tools to highlight product innovation and support long-term margin expansion at the audio-streaming platform, as user engagement deepens."We think the path to revenue growth reacceleration and margin expansion, along with catalysts on the come around additional label deals beyond (Universal Music Group) on the AI tools should drive shares higher," Morgan Stanley said in the note to clients. "Disclosed adoption and engagement data across podcasts, video, and audiobooks reinforce our view that success can continue -- and support (the company's) ability to turn that into improved pricing power and margin improvement, over time."In May, Spotify signed licensing agreements with Universal Music Group for fan-made remixes. The company also detailed its targets through 2030, including delivering a mid-teens revenue compounded annual growth rate, a gross margin between 35% and 40%, and an operating margin above 20%.Last month, Apple's (AAPL) music streaming service raised subscription prices globally, marking its first hike since October 2022. Morgan Stanley said the move helps overall industry structure and provides a favorable pricing umbrella for Spotify. In February, the audio-streaming platform raised premium monthly subscription prices to $12.99 from $11.99."Our credit card panel data shows less churn this price hike cycle than the prior two, underscoring product innovation and increased value perception," Morgan Stanley said.The brokerage raised its price target on the Spotify stock to $640 from $610 while maintaining an overweight rating, saying the stock's risk/reward profile is "compelling."The company's New York Stock Exchange-listed shares were down 2.1% in Monday late-afternoon trade and have fallen nearly 16% so far this year. Spotify is scheduled to report its second-quarter earnings Tuesday.Morgan Stanley projects Spotify to match guidance with more than 6 million Premium subscriber net additions in the quarter before accelerating to 6.5 million in the third quarter.Price: $491.30, Change: $-8.64, Percent Change: -1.73%

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Wire

Spotify's Share Decline Creates Buying Opportunity Ahead of New Products, Morgan Stanley Says

Spotify Technology's (SPOT) 14% year-to-date share decline presents an "attractive" buying opportunity ahead of planned product launches, including new artificial intelligence features, Morgan Stanley said in a report Monday.The firm expects Spotify to add about 26 million "Premium" subscribers in 2026 and 2027, supported by stronger engagement, pricing power and expansion across audiobooks, video podcasts, ticketing and "GenAI mixing tools," according to the report.An "improved free tier" could slow near-term conversion to paid subscriptions but should widen Spotify's long-term customer funnel, the investment bank said. Recent credit card data also showed less subscriber "churn" following Spotify's February "price hike" than after its previous increases, according to the report.The firm said slower streaming growth reported by Universal Music Group does not indicate that Spotify's business is weakening, while Spotify's potential participation in music paywall changes in India could also improve paid conversion and support Premium subscriber growth in international markets over time.The analyst expects free cash flow to grow at about a 20% annual rate over the next three to five years, reaching roughly $35 per share by 2030, according to the report.Morgan Stanley reiterated an overweight rating on Spotify and raised its price target to $640 from $610.Price: $500.24, Change: $+0.30, Percent Change: +0.06%

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Wire

Spotify Likely to Report Q2 Results 'Largely In Line' With Guidance, UBS Securities Says

Spotify Technology (SPOT) is expected to report Q2 results "largely in line" with management's guidance, supported by accelerating foreign exchange neutral revenue growth, higher pricing and stable gross margins, UBS Securities said in a note Thursday.The investment firm forecast Q2 revenue of 4.8 billion euros ($5.5 billion), up 15.6% on an FX-neutral basis despite slower net premium subscriber additions.Advertising revenue growth is also expected to improve, gross margins are seen expanding to 33.1%, and operating income is projected at 634 million euros despite higher artificial intelligence, marketing and content spending, according to the note.Analysts said they are "largely maintaining" their 2026 outlook on Spotify, including 19.4 billion euros in revenue, 33.3% gross margins, and 3.4 billion euros in free cash flow, with premium net adds anticipated to strengthen in H2.UBS Securities maintained a buy rating, but lowered the price target to $690 from $735.Price: $483.52, Change: $-2.37, Percent Change: -0.49%

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Wire

UBS Adjusts Price Target on Spotify Technology to $690 From $735, Maintains Buy Rating

Spotify Technology (SPOT) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $593.92, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $483.34, Change: $-2.54, Percent Change: -0.52%

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Insider Trading

Spotify Technology Insider Sold Shares Worth $2,708,586, According to a Recent SEC Filing

Alex Norstrom, Director, Co-Chief Executive Officer, on June 01, 2026, sold 5,436 shares in Spotify Technology (SPOT) for $2,708,586. Following the Form 4 filing with the SEC, Norstrom has control over a total of 68,390 ordinary shares of the company, with 68,390 shares held directly.SEC Filing:https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000162828026040495/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1780520652.xml

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Insider Trading

Spotify Technology Insider Sold Shares Worth $1,377,629, According to a Recent SEC Filing

Christopher P Marshall, Director, on May 26, 2026, sold 2,650 shares in Spotify Technology (SPOT) for $1,377,629. Following the Form 4 filing with the SEC, Marshall has control over a total of 1,076,708 ordinary shares of the company, with 4,039 shares held directly and 1,072,669 controlled indirectly.SEC Filing:https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000144000826000004/xslF345X05/form4.xml

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Insider Trading

Spotify Technology Insider Sold Shares Worth $18,600,331, According to a Recent SEC Filing

Sven Hans Martin Lorentzon, Director, on May 22, 2026, sold 35,380 shares in Spotify Technology (SPOT) for $18,600,331. Following the Form 4 filing with the SEC, Lorentzon has control over a total of 19,006,383 ordinary shares of the company, with 6,383 shares held directly and 19,000,000 controlled indirectly.SEC Filing:https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000162828026038458/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1779912656.xml

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Insider Trading

Spotify Technology Insider Sold Shares Worth $2,880,902, According to a Recent SEC Filing

Thomas O Staggs, Director, on May 26, 2026, sold 5,477 shares in Spotify Technology (SPOT) for $2,880,902. Following the Form 4 filing with the SEC, Staggs has control over a total of 26,713 ordinary shares of the company, with 3,619 shares held directly and 23,094 controlled indirectly.SEC Filing:https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000162828026038463/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1779912742.xml

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Wire

Update: Market Chatter: Spotify Co-Chief Executive Defends Expansion into AI-Generated Music

(Updates with the company's response in the fourth paragraph.)Spotify Technology's (SPOT) Co-Chief Executive Alex Norstrom has defended the company's expansion into artificial intelligence-generated music, the Financial Times reported Tuesday.Speaking at an interview, Norstrom said there have been "rogue attempts" at using AI tools to make music, adding that Spotify's "controlled" products offer a better alternative to the unregulated AI "slop" already spreading online, according to the report.Norstrom's comments come after the company signed a deal with Universal Music to allow users to create AI-generated covers and remixes of songs from participating artists, the FT reported.In response to' request for comment, a Spotify spokesperson pointed to the company's investor day blog post, which said that as generative AI accelerates music creation, artists can lose control of their work and value can be created without flowing back to creators if a rights system is not in place.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)Price: $528.84, Change: $+8.98, Percent Change: +1.73%

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Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer

Consumer stocks were lower late Tuesday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) falling 1.3% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) shedding 0.2%.In corporate news, Spotify's (SPOT) Co-Chief Executive Alex Norstrom has defended the company's expansion into AI-generated music, the Financial Times reported. Speaking at an interview, Norstrom said there have been "rogue attempts" at using AI tools to make music, adding that Spotify's "controlled" products offer a better alternative to the unregulated AI "slop" already spreading online, according to the report. Spotify shares were up 1.8%.

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Wire

Market Chatter: Spotify Co-Chief Executive Defends Expansion into AI-Generated Music

Spotify Technology's (SPOT) Co-Chief Executive Alex Norstrom has defended the company's expansion into artificial intelligence-generated music, the Financial Times reported Tuesday.Speaking at an interview, Norstrom said there have been "rogue attempts" at using AI tools to make music, adding that Spotify's "controlled" products offer a better alternative to the unregulated AI "slop" already spreading online, according to the report.Norstrom's comments come after the company signed a deal with Universal Music to allow users to create AI-generated covers and remixes of songs from participating artists, the FT reported.Spotify did not immediately respond to' request for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)Price: $530.25, Change: $+10.39, Percent Change: +2.00%

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Wire

Spotify Technology Refreshes 2030 Targets, Highlights AI-Driven Growth, UBS Says

Spotify Technology (SPOT) offered refreshed 2030 financial targets at its Investor Day, expected to be driven by broader monetization across pricing, subscription tiers, add-ons, and AI tools that enable differentiated personalization, UBS Securities said.The company's mid-teens FX-neutral revenue compound annual growth rate target and gross margin forecast of 35% to 40% by 2030 are expected to be supported by subscription tiers and sustained premium conversion from an under-penetrated user base, analysts wrote in a Thursday research note.The company has runway across developed and emerging markets and expects to reach the 1 billion monthly active user target before 2030. Management also expects double-digit advertising revenue growth beginning in H2, helped by its programmatic platforms, according to the note.UBS has a buy rating on the stock with a $735 price target.Shares of Spotify were up more than 8% in Friday afternoon trading.Price: $530.72, Change: $+40.79, Percent Change: +8.32%

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Research

Update: Morgan Stanley Raises Price Target on Spotify Technology to $610 From $590 After 'Landmark Deal' With Universal Music, Keeps Overweight Rating

(Updates with Morgan Stanley's commentary.)Morgan Stanley raised Spotify Technology (SPOT) price target to $610 from $590 saying the company should again be viewed as the "AI winner" because of new AI-powered interactive music features added by the UMG deal.Spotify's 2030 revenue growth guidance came above market expectations, while gross and operating margins outlook also looked solid.Spotify has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $593.28, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $527.00, Change: $+37.07, Percent Change: +7.57%

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Wire

Spotify's Investor Day Unveiled New Drivers of Future Growth and Profitability, Morgan Stanley Says

Spotify Technology (SPOT) introduced multiple new and meaningful drivers of growth and profitability at its investor day, showcasing its ability to capture incremental meaningful time spent, further revenue growth and drive towards 40% gross margins, Morgan Stanley said in a Friday note.The company announced a deal with Universal Music Group, allowing fans to create covers and remixes of their favorite songs, Morgan Stanley noted, adding that this opens up additional revenue streams for Spotify as well as for labels and artists, along with a new path to drive discovery.Spotify also announced a "Reserved by Spotify" feature that allows dedicated fans of an artist to have two concert tickets held just for them, which is further expected to differentiate the company's platform from the likes of other platforms, according to the note.The company has outlined an opportunity to grow to 1 billion monthly active users by 2030, which will contribute to a mid-teens revenue compound annual growth rate, and 35% to 40% gross margins with 20% and above earnings before interest and taxes margins over that time frame, Morgan Stanley said.Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the company's stock to $610 from $590 and maintained its overweight rating.Price: $529.97, Change: $+40.04, Percent Change: +8.17%

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