$MPC

US Gasoline Hits Highest Memorial Day Level Since 2022 on Supply Shocks, EIA Says

US gasoline prices climbed to the highest level for the Memorial Day holiday since 2022 as the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove up crude prices and tightened global fuel supplies, the Energy Information Administration said on Friday.The EIA said the national average price for regular gasoline reached $4.49 per gallon on May 18, up 42% from a year earlier and marking the highest level for the Monday before Memorial Day weekend since Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted oil markets three years ago.Rising crude prices, which typically account for about half of retail gasoline costs, have been the biggest driver behind the increase since February.The agency said global crude markets have been rattled by supply disruptions linked to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for oil shipments.Regional factors, including refinery outages, fuel specifications, and taxes, are also amplifying price disparities across the country.The Midwest and Rocky Mountain regions posted some of the steepest increases after refinery maintenance and outages constrained fuel supplies. Midwest gasoline prices averaged $4.40/gal on May 18, up 45% from a year earlier, while Rocky Mountain prices rose 47% to $4.59/gal.The EIA said several large refineries in the Midwest have been affected in recent weeks, including Phillips 66's (PSX) Wood River refinery in Illinois and Marathon Petroleum's (MPC) Robinson refinery, both of which were undergoing maintenance.BP's (BP) Whiting refinery in Indiana also experienced a temporary outage following a power disruption. Suncor Energy's (SU) Commerce City refinery in Colorado suffered an unplanned shutdown after a power outage during maintenance work.On the West Coast, where gasoline prices are typically the nation's highest because of stricter fuel standards, limited pipeline connectivity and higher state taxes, prices averaged $5.61/gal, up 31% from a year earlier.California's unique fuel specifications, which make gasoline more expensive to produce, have continued to weigh on the region, according to the EIA. Imports into the West Coast have also risen as refining capacity in the region declines.The Gulf Coast retained the country's cheapest gasoline prices, averaging $3.95/gal, benefiting from its concentration of refining capacity and relatively low fuel taxes. The East Coast, the nation's largest gasoline-consuming region, averaged $4.31/gal.The EIA said the US has rolled out several emergency measures to ease fuel market pressures.The government is releasing crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in coordination with the International Energy Agency, temporarily allowing nationwide sales of E15 gasoline and issuing waivers under the Jones Act to facilitate fuel shipments between US ports.Federal regulators have also relaxed enforcement of summer-grade gasoline standards. Despite the higher prices, holiday travel demand remains resilient.The American Automobile Association estimates 39.1 million Americans will travel by car over the Memorial Day weekend, in line with last year.Price: $67.65, Change: $-0.08, Percent Change: -0.12%

BMO Capital Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $290 From $255, Maintains Outperform Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $261, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

Research Alert: CFRA Lifts View On Shares Of Marathon Petroleum To Buy From Hold

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We raised our 12-month target price by $56 to $277, reflecting a combination of relative valuation and DCF models. On a relative basis, we apply a 7.9x multiple of enterprise value to projected 2027 EBITDA, slightly above the peer average. We think a peer premium is reasonable on the basis of a superior return on invested capital. This approach yields a value of $275 per share. Meanwhile, our DCF model, using free cash flow growth of 9.5% per year for 10 years, 2.0% thereafter, discounted at a WACC of 7.2%, yields a value of $279 per share. We lift our 2026 EPS estimate by $13.83 to $26.74 and 2027's by $8.03 to $21.57. MPC should benefit from a widening spread between Western Canada Select and WTI crudes, which benefit its Midwestern refineries, as well as a wide spread between Brent and WTI that has blown out since the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict. We think that, even if the conflict ended today, it could easily take until 2027 to restore energy markets to square one.

JPMorgan Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $257 From $235

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $262.06, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $249.06, Change: $-11.45, Percent Change: -4.40%

TD Cowen Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $320 From $299

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $259.13, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Rise Tuesday Afternoon

Energy stocks were higher Tuesday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index rising 0.5% and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) up 0.3%.The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index was decreasing 0.4%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities Index was adding 0.8%.Crude oil futures slumped after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the ceasefire agreement with Iran remains in force. Hegseth, speaking at a Tuesday morning press conference, said the Iran ceasefire remains in effect while promising to continue to press ahead with opening the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for about a fifth of global crude oil flows.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil was declining 4.3% to $101.80 a barrel, and the global benchmark Brent crude contract was dropping 3.9% to $110.03 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures fell 2.5% to $2.80 per 1 million BTU.In corporate news, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) shares gained 1.8% after its Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue rose year on year and beat analysts' estimates.GE Vernova (GEV) and Blue Energy are planning to develop a 2.5 gigawatt power facility in Texas that will combine nuclear and natural gas, the companies said Tuesday. GE Vernova shares added 2.6%.Enlight Renewable Energy (ENLT) shares climbed 3.5% after it reported higher-than-expected Q1 earnings and revenue.

Sector Update: Energy

Energy stocks were higher Tuesday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index rising 0.5% and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) up 0.3%.The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index was decreasing 0.4%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities Index was adding 0.8%.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil was declining 4.3% to $101.80 a barrel, and the global benchmark Brent crude contract was dropping 3.9% to $110.03 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures fell 2.5% to $2.80 per 1 million BTU.In corporate news, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) shares gained 1.9% after its Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue rose year on year and beat analysts' estimates.

Citigroup Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $257 From $243, Maintains Neutral Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $253.25, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $256.58, Change: $+4.04, Percent Change: +1.60%

Research Alert: Mpc: Strong Refining Margins In Q1

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:MPC generated a robust Q1 earnings beat with adjusted EPS of $1.65 vs. a loss of $0.24 in the prior-year quarter, beating consensus by $0.90. The strong performance was fueled by substantial refining margin expansion to $17.74/b from $13.38/b, a 33% improvement, resulting in R&M segment adjusted EBITDA surging to $1.4B from $489M. MPC is advancing value-enhancing projects including the Garyville jet flexibility project that came online in Q1, with the El Paso FCC upgrade and Robinson jet project targeting 2026 completion. Management guided Q2 refining opex to $5.65/b, implying a sequential reduction of almost 10% from Q1's elevated $6.23/b level. We view the company's $1.5B capital spending outlook positively, with 65% allocated toward value-enhancing projects. MPLX is investing $2.4B in organic growth capital, 90% toward natural gas and NGL infrastructure, supporting expected 12.5% annual distribution growth in both 2026 and 2027.

Marathon Petroleum Q1 Refining Inputs Flat, Midstream Throughputs Down

US downstream and midstream energy company Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Tuesday reported its Q1 results, showing relatively steady refining inputs and a decline in pipeline and terminal throughputs.For the quarter ended March 31, net refinery throughputs were largely unchanged from a year earlier at around 2.9 million barrels per day. Crude oil capacity utilization also remained flat at 89%, with crude oil refining capacity little changed at about 3.0 million barrels per calendar day.On the Gulf Coast, net refinery throughput rose year over year to 1.21 mmbbls/d from 1.16 mmbbls/d. On the West Coast, throughput also climbed to 529,000 barrels per day from 504,000 b/d.However, lower refinery inputs in Mid-Continent offset these increases. Net refinery throughput in the region dropped to 1.1 mmbbls/d from 1.2 mmbbls/d.During the period, the company's refining segment processed 48% sour crude oil and 52% sweet crude oil. This compares with the previous year's mix of 46% sour and 54% sweet crude.The company projects refinery throughputs will increase to about 3 mmbbls/d in Q2.In the midstream segment, the company saw pipeline throughputs declining year over year to 5.8 mmbbls/d from 6.0 mmbbls/d. Terminal throughputs also dropped to 3.0 mmbbls/d from 3.1 mmbbls/d.At the same time, gathering system throughputs eased to 6.49 million cubic feet per day from 6.52 mcf/d, and natural gas processed fell to 9.4 mcf/d from 9.8 mcf/d.The company also said its renewable diesel business posted a lower utilization level due to planned downtime at the Martinez Renewables joint venture facility, which weighed on the segment margin.

Marathon Petroleum Q1 Swings to Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Rises

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) reported Q1 adjusted net income Tuesday of $1.65 per diluted share, swinging from a loss of $0.24 a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected adjusted EPS of $0.74.Revenue for the quarter ended March 31 was $34.57 billion, compared with $31.85 billion a year earlier.Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $33.42 billion.Shares of the company were up 1% in Tuesday's premarket activity.

Earnings Flash (MPC) Marathon Petroleum Posts Q1 Revenue $34.57B, vs. FactSet Est of $33.42B

Earnings Flash (MPC) Marathon Petroleum Posts Q1 Adjusted EPS $1.65, vs. FactSet Est of $0.74

Marathon Petroleum Keeps Quarterly Dividend at $1 a Share, Payable June 10 to Holders of Record May 20

Marathon Petroleum Keeps Quarterly Dividend at $1 a Share, Payable June 10 to Holders of Record May 20

Morgan Stanley Adjusts Marathon Petroleum Price Target to $233 From $200, Maintains Overweight Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $253.25, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

Refining Margins Unlikely to Return to Pre-Conflict Levels Anytime Soon, Morgan Stanley Says

Refining margins are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels anytime soon, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, due to refinery damage, the time required to normalize trade flows, and the need to rebuild inventories, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a Friday note to clients.Analysts said first-quarter financial results for refining companies will be pressured by lower capture rates amid still-tight crude differentials, planned and unplanned maintenance, and derivative headwinds, partially offset by stronger secondary products.Morgan Stanley said near-term U.S. refining margins have roughly doubled since the start of the Iran conflict and now sit near levels last reached in 2022 and 2023.On Phillips 66 (PSX), analysts upgraded the stock to overweight from equal-weight.They said the chemicals business is a key factor that sets the company apart from the rest of the sector, with earnings from the segment expected to rise to about $1.1 billion from $352 million. They also raised the price target to $174 from $147.Morgan Stanley retained an overweight rating on Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and raised its price target to $233 from $200. It also maintained an overweight rating on HF Sinclair (DINO) and increased its price target to $66 from $57.On Valero Energy (VLO), Morgan Stanley maintained an equal-weight rating and raised the price target to $222 from $182. It also maintained an equal-weight rating on Delek US Holdings (DK) and raised its price target to $40 from $38.On PBF Energy (PBF), Morgan Stanley maintained an underweight rating and raised the price target to $34 from $27.Price: $224.00, Change: $+2.90, Percent Change: +1.31%

Morgan Stanley Raises Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $233 From $200, Keeps Overweight Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $253.25, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

Scotiabank Raises Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $210 From $174, Maintains Sector Outperform Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $251.19, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $222.62, Change: $+2.27, Percent Change: +1.03%

Jefferies Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $279 From $263, Maintains Buy Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $249.06, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $226.72, Change: $+4.10, Percent Change: +1.84%