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Equities

TD Cowen Adjusts Marathon Petroleum Price Target to $375 From $357

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $306.94, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $306.31, Change: $-6.30, Percent Change: -2.02%

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Equities

JPMorgan Adjusts Marathon Petroleum Price Target to $323 From $300

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $306.94, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $306.20, Change: $-6.42, Percent Change: -2.05%

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Equities

Evercore ISI Adjusts Marathon Petroleum Price Target to $330 From $300

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $306.94, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $306.87, Change: $-5.74, Percent Change: -1.84%

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Equities

Raymond James Adjusts Marathon Petroleum Price Target to $350 From $335

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $306.94, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $306.87, Change: $-5.74, Percent Change: -1.84%

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Sectors

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Decline Pre-Bell Tuesday

Energy stocks were declining pre-bell Tuesday, with the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) down 1.3%.The United States Oil Fund (USO) was down 3.1% and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 3% lower.Front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil was 3.5% lower at $77.57 per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Global benchmark North Sea Brent crude oil fell 2.8% to $81.39 per barrel, and natural gas futures were down 3.1% at $2.69 per 1 million British Thermal Units.Energy Transfer (ET) shares were up more than 1% after the company posted higher Q2 earnings and revenue.Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stock was down more than 1% even after the company reported higher Q2 adjusted earnings and revenue.BP (BP) reported higher Q2 underlying replacement cost profit as sales and other operating revenue increased during the period. BP shares were down 0.6% pre-bell.

$BP$ET$MPC$UNG$USO$XLE
Commodities

Marathon Petroleum Q2 Refinery Throughput Falls YoY; Refined Product Sales Steady

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Tuesday posted a year-over-year decline in Q2 net refinery throughput to 2.9 million barrels per day from 3.1 mmbbls/d, while refined product sales volume largely steadied at around 3.8 mmbbls/d.Quarterly net throughput on the Gulf Coast remained flat at around 1.3 mmbbls/d, while that in the Mid-Continent dropped to 1.1 mmbbls/d from 1.2 mmbbls/d. On the West Coast, throughput rose to 529,000 barrels per day from 512,000 b/d.In Q2, the company processed 48% sour crude oil and 52% sweet crude oil. This compares with the previous year's 45% sour and 55% sweet crude oil mix.Marathon's midstream segment recorded a year-over-year drop in natural gas processed to 9.59 billion cubic feet per day in Q2 from 9.74 bcf/d a year earlier. Gathering system throughputs, meanwhile, grew to 6.86 bcf/d from 6.56 bcf/d.Results also showed that Q2 pipeline throughputs decreased year over year to 6.0 mmbbls/d from 6.2 mmbbls/d, while terminal throughputs increased to 3.3 mmbbls/d from 3.2 mmbbls/d.Marathon said its renewable diesel business also posted higher throughputs, supporting margin growth during the period.The company said it projects about $1.5 billion in capital spending this year for enhancing and sustaining its refinery operations, while its midstream unit MPLX (MPLX) forecasts around $2.9 billion to primarily accelerate Gulf Coast fractionation projects.

$MPC$MPLX
Equities

Marathon Petroleum Q2 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Rise

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) reported Q2 adjusted earnings Tuesday of $17.73 per diluted share, up from $3.96 a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected $14.27.Revenue and other income for the quarter ended June 30 was $52.34 billion, up from $34.10 billion a year earlier.Analysts expected of $40.87 billion.The company's shares were up 1.9% in premarket activity.

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Equities

Marathon Petroleum Keeps Quarterly Dividend at $1.00 a Share, Payable Sept. 10 to Shareholders of Record on Aug. 19

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Equities

Goldman Sachs Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $376 From $291, Maintains Buy Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $306.94, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

$MPC
Equities

TD Cowen Adjusts Marathon Petroleum Price Target to $357 From $315, Maintains Buy Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $297.94, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

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Commodities

Refining Boom Returns as Geopolitical Tensions Push Fuel Profits to Multi-Year Highs, TPH Says

US refiners are on track to report one of their strongest quarters in years as geopolitical disruptions drove fuel margins sharply higher, TPH Energy Research analyst Matthew Blair said in a note on Wednesday.Average Q2 2026 earnings per share are projected at $6.53, above the consensus estimate of $6.20 and up from $0.59 in Q1.Blair said the quarter is shaping up to be the industry's most profitable since market disruptions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.Global refining runs fell to an estimated 78 million barrels per day in Q2 from 83 million b/d in Q1, reflecting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and increased Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries.Tighter supply pushed US gasoline crack spreads to an average of $25/bbl in the quarter, up from $9/bbl in Q1 and $16/bbl a year earlier.Diesel crack spreads climbed to $45/bbl from $30/bbl in the previous quarter and $17/bbl a year earlier. Margins improved across most US refining regions, with the Southwest and Gulf Coast posting the largest gains over the year. Jet fuel and naphtha margins also strengthened.In Asia, Singapore gasoline and diesel crack spreads rose to $33/bbl and $69/bbl, respectively, from $16/bbl and $41/bbl in Q1. Singapore diesel margins reached five-year highs during much of the quarter.Higher fuel margins were partly offset by tighter crude price differentials, steeper backwardation and higher tanker rates. Backwardation indicates strong near-term demand or tight spot supply, with futures prices trading below spot prices.Marathon Petroleum (MPC), PBF Energy (PBF) and Phillips 66 (PSX) are expected to post the largest earnings beats versus consensus, while CVR Energy (CVI) and Delek US Holdings (DK) may underperform expectations.The third quarter has also started strongly, with gasoline and diesel margins rising further amid renewed US-Iran tensions and continued constraints on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.Blair forecasts average third-quarter earnings per share of $5.91, roughly in line with the consensus estimate of $5.94.Price: $296.79, Change: $-6.61, Percent Change: -2.18%

$CVI$DINO$DK$MPC$PARR$PBF$PSX$VLO
Oil & Energy

Refiners Start Q3 Strong with Better Fuel Margins, Tight Inventories, TPH Says

US refiners have begun the third quarter on a strong footing, with refining margins improving across most companies as low fuel inventories and renewed tensions between the US and Iran support market conditions, TPH Energy Research analyst Matthew Blair said in a Tuesday note.Blair said company-specific refining indicators are off to a "fantastic start" about halfway through the first month of the quarter, with most refiners benefiting from stronger product cracks and favorable crude market dynamics.Among the large-cap refiners, Valero Energy (VLO) is showing the biggest improvement over the quarter, with TPH estimating refining margins have increased by about $9.15 per barrel.Blair attributed the gains to the company's significant exposure to the North Atlantic and US Gulf Coast, where refining economics have strengthened the most since the Q2.Valero is also benefiting from wider Gulf Coast crude differentials, including ASCI and Maya grades.Phillips 66 (PSX) is estimated to be up about $6.70/bbl over the quarter, supported by similar regional exposure. However, Blair said the company's performance has been somewhat constrained by higher crude prices and weaker Gulf Coast product trends.Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is estimated to have improved by roughly $5.95/bbl from the prior quarter. While product margins in the Chicago region have not strengthened as much as elsewhere, Blair said that has been partially offset by a more favorable structure in the WTI crude market.Among small- and mid-cap refiners, Delek US Holdings (DK) stands out as the strongest performer, with TPH estimating a quarter-over-quarter improvement of about $13.60/bbl.Blair cited the company's Gulf Coast product exposure, wider Midland crude differentials and improved WTI market structure as key drivers.CVR Energy (CVI) is also seeing a substantial improvement, with estimated margins up about $9.85/bbl before accounting for renewable volume obligation costs, or about $7.34/bbl after those costs.HF Sinclair (DINO) is estimated to be up about $2.80/bbl, benefiting from stronger Group 3 gasoline cracks, although Blair noted that the company's exposure to the Rockies and Southwest has moderated from exceptionally strong Q2 levels.Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) is the only refiner in TPH's coverage expected to post a quarter-over-quarter decline, with estimated margins down about $2/bbl.Blair attributed the weakness primarily to Singapore refining margins retreating from record Q2 levels, along with TPH's expectation of more challenging Hawaiian crude differentials during Q3.Price: $297.50, Change: $+1.71, Percent Change: +0.58%

$CVI$DINO$DK$MPC$PARR$PSX$VLO
Equities

Citigroup Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $303 From $257, Maintains Neutral Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $295.31, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

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Commodities

Refiners Rally as Renewed US-Iran Fighting Lifts Fuel Margins, TPH Says

US refining equities surged last week, outpacing the broader market as renewed fighting between the US and Iran stoked concerns over energy supplies, driving a sharp climb in gasoline and diesel cracks, TPH Energy Research strategists said in a note Monday.TPH analysts said refining equities jumped 8% last week, outperforming the broader S&P 500, which gained 1.2%.Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH Energy, said higher-beta refiners led the advance, with Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) shares rising 12.5%, PBF Energy (PBF) gaining 11.2%, and CVR Energy (CVI) climbing 8.7%.Blair said that the rally came as renewed US-Iran tensions have stoked concerns over potential disruptions to crude and refined product flows, pushing gasoline and diesel margins higher.US gasoline cracks rose by about $3 per barrel last week to $40/bbl, with the West Coast and Rockies regions posting the strongest gains.Diesel margins climbed even more sharply, surging $10/bbl to $53/bbl, buoyed by stronger pricing across the West Coast, Rockies, Gulf Coast and Midwest markets.TPH said the East Coast and Gulf Coast markets entered Q3 with the largest improvement in refining margins over the quarter.Meanwhile, global markets showed mixed signals. Northwest Europe gasoline margins climbed $3/bbl to $37/bbl, reaching the highest level in five years, while Singapore gasoline margins weakened by $5/bbl to $23/bbl amid softer regional demand and supply dynamics.TPH said forward refining margins also strengthened. The 2026 and 2027 6-3-2-1 crack spread futures curves improved by $2/bbl and $3/bbl, respectively, reaching $19/bbl and $14/bbl, driven largely by gains in diesel markets.Crude oil differentials also improved during the week. TPH said Syncrude and Alaska North Slope crude each widened by $8/bbl over Brent, while other grades, including WTI, Mars, Maya, Western Canadian Select at Houston, Western Canadian Select premiums at Hardisty and Bakken also strengthened.WTI differentials improved by $1/bbl, while Mars and Maya gained $1/bbl each. Bakken widened by $2/bbl, the bank said.However, despite the recent rally, most refining stocks remain valued below their three-year forward consensus enterprise value-to-EBITDA averages.TPH said only Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Valero Energy (VLO) are currently trading above their historical valuation benchmarks.Price: $70.20, Change: $+4.42, Percent Change: +6.72%

$CVI$MPC$PARR$PBF$VLO
Equities

Jefferies Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $335 From $296, Maintains Buy Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $290.25, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

$MPC
Equities

Evercore ISI Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $300 From $245, Maintains In Line Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $290.25, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

$MPC
Equities

BMO Capital Adjusts PT on Marathon Petroleum to $320 From $290, Maintains Outperform Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $290.25, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

$MPC
Equities

JPMorgan Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $300 From $257, Maintains Neutral Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $290.25, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

$MPC
Commodities

Investors Favor Mid-Cap Refiners as Sector Fundamentals Strengthen, TPH Energy Says

Refining investors remain optimistic as stronger fuel margins, supportive market fundamentals and geopolitical developments continue to strengthen the sector, TPH Energy said in a Friday note.TPH Energy said investors showed the most interest in mid-cap refiners Delek US Holdings (DK), HF Sinclair (DINO) and Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), while Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO) attracted the most attention among large-cap companies.Investors focused on the breakdown of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, which boosted gasoline and diesel refining margins, while also watching Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, a recovery in Chinese refining activity and low fuel inventories, TPH Energy said.Market participants also examined regional refining trends, including weaker Midwest gasoline margins compared with the Gulf Coast during the summer, along with Western Canadian Select takeaway constraints, the note added.Investors also highlighted potential benefits from Small Refinery Exemptions for Delek US Holdings, Par Pacific Holdings and HF Sinclair, the note said.TPH Energy also expects Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Valero Energy, HF Sinclair, Delek US Holdings and Par Pacific Holdings to generate enough cash in the first half to support significant shareholder returns in the second half of 2026.Price: $55.66, Change: $-0.43, Percent Change: -0.77%

$DINO$DK$MPC$PARR$PSX$VLO
Equities

UBS Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $321 From $280

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $280.06, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

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