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McDonald's Same-Store-Sales Growth Seen Slowing in Q2, Q3, RBC Says

McDonald's (MCD) same-store-sales growth is expected to slow in Q2 and Q3 as pressure on lower-income consumers more than offsets boosts from World Cup promotions, beverage innovation and value offerings, RBC Capital Markets said Monday in a report.US same-store-sales growth in Q2 are expected to be mostly in line with consensus expectations as consumers grappled with elevated fuel prices, the report said. For Q3, investors will focus on underlying trends excluding the lift from the World Cup and new menu items to get a clearer read on traffic in H2, RBC said.Despite a generally solid underlying performance, international sales are expected to come in slightly below forecasts as several key markets face a tough comparison to last year's global Minecraft promotion, the report said.RBC also flagged risks to unit growth and said a potential investment cycle tied to restaurant upgrades and new openings may weigh on McDonald's free-cash-flow conversion.Q2 results are expected Aug 4.RBC rates McDonald's stock as sector perform with a $305 price target.Price: $273.94, Change: $+3.27, Percent Change: +1.21%

McDonald's Likely to Report 'Sluggish' Q2 Same-Store Sales, UBS Says

McDonald's (MCD) is expected to report "sluggish" Q2 same-store sales as weaker consumer spending and "difficult" comparisons pressure results in the US and globally, UBS Securities said in a report Monday.The firm forecasts Q2 US same-store sales growth of 0.5%, below the 0.8% consensus estimate, despite new beverages, value meals, menu items and marketing initiatives. International Operated Markets sales are expected to rise 1%, also below consensus, according to the report.Sales trends could improve in the H2 as McDonald's benefits from its menu upgrades and digital investments. The firm expects the company to continue gaining market share through 2027, UBS said.McDonald's September investor day is expected to provide details on "menu innovation," marketing, artificial intelligence technology, restaurant upgrades and its global expansion targets, the report said.UBS said the stock's risk-reward remains attractive despite near-term pressures, but lowered the price target to $340 from $365 and maintained a buy rating, to reflect weaker sales trends and macroeconomic headwinds.Price: $269.52, Change: $+4.76, Percent Change: +1.80%

UBS Cuts McDonald's Price Target to $340 From $365, Maintains Buy Rating

McDonald's (MCD) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $323.35, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $267.65, Change: $+2.89, Percent Change: +1.09%

BofA Adjusts Price Target on McDonald's to $339 From $344

McDonald's (MCD) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $325.83, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $268.50, Change: $+0.80, Percent Change: +0.30%

Tigress Financial Raises Price Target on McDonald's to $390 From $385, Maintains Buy Rating

McDonald's (MCD) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $323.71, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $273.78, Change: $+0.34, Percent Change: +0.12%

Restaurants, Food Distributors Poised for Mixed Second Quarter, Morgan Stanley Says

US Markets15d ago

Restaurants, Food Distributors Poised for Mixed Second Quarter, Morgan Stanley Says

US restaurant and food distribution companies likely saw a mixed second quarter, with largely stable industry trends that are masking "signs of strain," Morgan Stanley said in a note e-mailed Wednesday.The stable outlook is supported by Black Box data showing steady same-store sales growth through the June quarter, according to the brokerage. However, there are certain "signs of strain," the firm said in a note to clients. The sectors are facing slowing retail sales and other headwinds. A possible summer cyclosporiasis outbreak could temporarily impact the lettuce supply and deter diners, Morgan Stanley said."We don't see a big change in underlying macro themes near term that could help change the fortunes of some of the more challenged brands," the brokerage wrote. "Larger (quick-service restaurant) we think remains a soft spot; beverage quite strong; fast-casual mixed, but maybe better at the margin; full-service also mixed, but good in absolute; and food (distribution) resilient overall."Morgan Stanley sees Performance Food Group (PFGC) as a preferred name among food distributors. All companies in the brokerage's coverage in this category are likely to have "solid (second) quarters, though bars are higher today," according to the note.The firm sees another "tougher" quarter for franchised fast food companies, with certain exceptions, it said. McDonald's (MCD) and Domino's Pizza (DPZ) are among the names that likely face tougher near-term setups. Beverage continues to be a "bright spot," with Morgan Stanley remaining overweight on Starbucks (SBUX) and Dutch Bros' (BROS) stocks, according to the note.The firm upgraded its rating on Cava Group's (CAVA) shares to overweight from equal weight while downgrading both Chefs' Warehouse (CHEF) and Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) to equal weight from overweight.Cava is among the few companies that Morgan Stanley said it feels "good about most" regarding several key growth metrics, including traffic and unit expansion. "Valuation is defensible, because it remains one of the strongest fundamental stories in restaurants," the brokerage wrote.Although Chefs' Warehouse remains fundamentally strong with a high likelihood of beating its financial guidance, a nearly 60% year-to-date rally has pushed the stock to the high end of its typical valuation range, Morgan Stanley said."Looking at the numbers, there remains a disconnect between (Black Rock Coffee Bar's) growth profile and valuation, but we're aware that narrative, execution, and qualitative concerns can sometimes override that," the brokerage wrote. "For a newly public young company in a large competitive category, hitting guidance isn't enough."Price: $110.83, Change: $-2.16, Percent Change: -1.91%

$BRCB$BROS$CAVA$CHEF$DPZ$MCD$PFGC$SBUX

Restaurant Sector Remains Mixed as Stronger Operators Outperform, Morgan Stanley Says

Restaurant and food companies continue to see mixed performance, as stronger operators outperform while weaker brands face ongoing challenges, Morgan Stanley said in a note Wednesday.Recent market shifts, including artificial intelligence and uncertainty around Iran, have led investors to better differentiate between companies still delivering and those that are not, the investment bank said, adding it does not expect any major near-term macroeconomic changes that would improve conditions for challenged brands.Across the industry, large quick-service restaurants remain a weak segment, while beverage companies continue to perform strongly, and fast-casual restaurants are mixed but showing modest improvement, according to the note. Full-service restaurants are also mixed but remain solid overall, and food distributors continue to demonstrate resilience, the investment bank said."Recent slowing in industry data will be a focus, though perhaps short lived and comparisons help as we head into late Q3/Q4 for many and the overall industry," the bank added.Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Starbucks (SBUX) to $111 from $110, Restaurant Brands International (QSR) to $79 from $78, CAVA Group (CAVA) to $90 from $86, and Dutch Bros (BROS) to $88 from $87, while lowering its price target on Domino's Pizza (DPZ) to $370 from $395, and McDonald's (MCD) to $322 from $331.The bank downgraded Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) to equal-weight from overweight and cut its price target to $9 from $22, while upgrading CAVA Group (CAVA) to overweight from equal-weight and raising the price target to $90 from $86. Morgan Stanley downgraded Chefs' Warehouse (CHEF) to equal-weight from overweight while raising its price target to $97 from $83.The bank also increased its price targets on Performance Food Group (PFGC) to $131 from $120, Sysco (SYY) to $88 from $84, and US Foods (USFD) to $103 from $94.Price: $106.99, Change: $+0.82, Percent Change: +0.78%

$BRCB$BROS$CAVA$CHEF$DPZ$MCD$PFGC$QSR$SBUX$SYY$USFD

McDonald's US Sales Likely Hit New Low in Second Quarter, Deutsche Bank Says

US Markets21d ago

McDonald's US Sales Likely Hit New Low in Second Quarter, Deutsche Bank Says

McDonald's (MCD) US comparable sales likely reached a new low during the second quarter amid a weak macro backdrop, Deutsche Bank said in a note emailed Thursday.Crude and gasoline prices soared in the aftermath of the Iran war, weighing on consumer sentiment. Energy prices have come down as the US and Iran engaged in talks and agreed to a memorandum of understanding in June.Inflation-adjusted sales at eating and drinking places fell in May year on year, the National Restaurant Association said last month.The fast-food giant's US same-store sales are expected to have troughed in the second quarter, Deutsche Bank said."Sentiment on (McDonald's) leans largely negative given concerns on underlying US momentum, unit growth and free cash flow as (McDonald's) approaches a new remodel cycle," Deutsche Bank analyst Lauren Silberman said.Comparable sales in the US will rebound as the economic environment improves, particularly for low-income consumers, and other corporate actions around marketing and value offerings pay off, Silberman said.McDonald's stock is down about 9.6% year to date.The brokerage sees relatively stable trends at McDonald's international operations that could drive potential upside for second-quarter International Operated Markets same-store sales, Silberman wrote."We believe a lot of negativity is priced into this powerful global company and defensive business model, and any signs of improving (same-store sales) should support sentiment (and valuation)," Silberman added.Earlier this year, McDonald's reported better-than-expected first-quarter results despite a challenging environment, with comparable sales growing ahead of Wall Street estimates.Deutsche Bank has a buy rating on McDonald's shares and a $325 price target.Price: $276.52, Change: $-1.73, Percent Change: -0.62%

Kroger Appoints Emilee De Martino as Chief People Officer

Kroger (KR) said Thursday it named Emilee De Martino as chief people officer.De Martino succeeds Tim Massa, who will retire on Sept. 18, according to a statement.De Martino was most recently the chief people officer for international operated markets at McDonald's (MCD), the company said.Price: $57.83, Change: $+1.59, Percent Change: +2.83%

McDonald's Names Bryan Brown as US Chief Development Officer

McDonald's (MCD) has roped in fast-food chain Raising Cane's Bryan Brown to serve as chief development officer for its US business, effective July 14, the company said late Tuesday.Brown, who has more than three decades of experience in restaurant development, real estate, and design, will succeed Tabassum Zalotrawala, the company said.Price: $270.35, Change: $+0.04, Percent Change: +0.01%

Insider Trading59d ago

Mcdonalds Insider Sold Shares Worth $769,109, According to a Recent SEC Filing

Desiree Ralls-Morrison, Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, on May 28, 2026, sold 2,763 shares in Mcdonalds (MCD) for $769,109. Following the Form 4 filing with the SEC, Ralls-Morrison has control over a total of 6,268 common shares of the company, with 6,268 shares held directly.SEC Filing:https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000172393726000005/xslF345X05/form4.xmlPrice: $273.98, Change: $-5.22, Percent Change: -1.87%

McDonald's Seen Well-Positioned for Global Market-Share Gains, UBS Says

McDonald's (MCD) is well positioned globally for market-share gains and offers an appealing long-term valuation despite lingering macroeconomic headwinds, UBS Securities said Monday in a report.Solid execution of strategic plans is likely to continue, with McDonald's among the best-positioned quick-service chains given its strong value and brand perception, the report said. Still, investor sentiment has softened on concerns that H2 same-store sales may turn negative against difficult comparisons, UBS said.Underlying momentum should remain steady, supported by value offerings, menu innovation, digital and loyalty gains, and marketing campaigns, the report said.Data points to only a limited early sales lift from a new beverage platform, though McDonald's is expected to roll out additional options through the year, seen as a modest same-store-sales driver, UBS said.The company's campaigns, collaborations and merchandising are expected to continue resonating with consumers, supporting brand relevance and sales, while tech improvements should provide a competitive edge, the report said.UBS reiterated its buy rating on McDonald's stock and its $365 price target.Price: $280.71, Change: $+4.32, Percent Change: +1.56%

Argus Lowers McDonald's Price Target to $320 From $380

McDonald's (MCD) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $332.47, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $275.01, Change: $-0.69, Percent Change: -0.25%

McDonald's Poised for Market Share Gains Despite Macro Headwinds, UBS Says

McDonald's (MCD) is poised for underlying momentum with US and global market share gains likely through 2026 despite macro headwinds, UBS said in a note emailed Monday.The company's negative US and international April same-store sales growth reflects tough prior year comparisons, and the setup over the rest of the year could include additional difficult laps and headwinds from higher gas prices and depressed consumer sentiment, UBS added.UBS still expects solid sales gains in 2026, led by sales initiatives rolling out through the year across menu innovation, marketing campaigns, and digital and loyalty programs, along with stronger value offerings, according to the note.McDonald's appears to be on track to reach approximately 50,000 stores by the end of 2027, but management is reviewing its development pipeline amid higher construction costs and supply chain challenges, the brokerage said, adding that the company is also considering franchising US co-owned stores partly due to softer-than-expected margins.While sales trends will likely decelerate in Q2 due to slightly negative April comps given the difficult Minecraft limited-time offer lap, underlying momentum should remain solid and 2-year trends should accelerate, according to UBS.UBS kept a buy rating on McDonald's with a price target of $365.Price: $272.13, Change: $-3.62, Percent Change: -1.31%

McDonald's Q1 Comps In Line but Macro Headwinds Pressure Outlook, RBC Says

McDonald's (MCD) Q1 comps were in line and the company gained share in top international operated markets, but macro headwinds and consumer weakness are likely impacting transactions, RBC Capital Markets said.April comps for US and IOM were negative as headwinds weighed on consumers, while a tough Minecraft comparison also pressured results, the brokerage said in a Thursday research note. US McDonald's operated company margins delevered due to executional missteps driven by additional labor hours and conservative pricing.Elevated construction costs and franchisee profitability challenges stemming from beef inflation, macro headwinds, and rising energy costs could limit unit growth in 2027 and beyond, according to the note.Despite a weaker macro backdrop, the company posted in-line Q1 same-store-sales growth, driven by share gains in Australia, Canada, Germany, the UK, and Japan supported by value offerings, menu innovation and marketing.RBC reiterated its sector perform rating on the stock and lowered its price target to $305 per share from $330.Price: $278.96, Change: $-4.75, Percent Change: -1.67%

McDonald's Results Show Fast-Food Giant Not Immune to Macro Challenges, RBC Says

US Markets83d ago

McDonald's Results Show Fast-Food Giant Not Immune to Macro Challenges, RBC Says

McDonald's (MCD) delivered strong first-quarter results against a low bar, though there were signs that the fast-food giant is not immune to macroeconomic challenges, RBC Capital Markets said in a note e-mailed Friday.On Thursday, McDonald's reported better-than-expected results for the March quarter, with comparable sales rebounding more than market estimates despite what the company described as a "challenging" environment.While quick service restaurant industry traffic contracted in many of McDonald's top international markets, the company managed to gain market share in nearly all of them, led by the UK, Germany, and Australia, Chief Financial Officer Ian Borden said on an earnings conference call Thursday, according to a FactSet transcript."These three markets continue to demonstrate disciplined execution across value, menu, and marketing, with each market gaining share again this quarter and delivering comparable sales growth in the mid- to high-single-digit percent range," Borden told analysts.Overall comparable sales for the quarter were likely above buy-side, while the company also gained share among low-income US consumers amid its value offerings, RBC said in a the note to clients."While management still expects acceleration on a two-year basis for (the second quarter), April comps for US and (international operated markets) were slightly negative as macro headwinds weighed on the consumer, particularly in the US, while Minecraft lap is impacting IOM markets," RBC analyst Logan Reich said.The brokerage lowered its price target on the McDonald's stock to $305 from $330, with a sector perform rating.The company's shares were down 1.6% in Friday afternoon trade. The stock has lost 8.7% in value so far this year.RBC reduced its 2026 and 2027 adjusted earnings and revenue estimates for McDonald's.The brokerage cut the company's comparable sales estimates for this year "across the board" as heightened macro uncertainty weighs on top-line growth expectations, it said in the note. "Higher construction costs and franchisee profitability headwinds could limit unit growth in (2027) and beyond."Price: $280.62, Change: $-3.08, Percent Change: -1.09%

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Edge Lower Late Afternoon

Consumer stocks were edging down late Thursday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) each decreasing 0.1%.In corporate news, Tapestry (TPR) raised its fiscal 2026 outlook after delivering a Q3 beat, but provided a subdued Q4 sales guidance for its Kate Spade brand. Its shares dropped more than 13%.Shake Shack (SHAK) shares slumped 28% after the company's Q1 results missed Wall Street estimates.Planet Fitness (PLNT) shares tumbled 32% after the company tempered its full-year outlook amid fewer-than-expected member additions in Q1.McDonald's (MCD) reported better-than-expected Q1 results as comparable sales rebounded more than market estimates despite what the company described as a "challenging" environment. Its shares rose 0.3%.

$MCD$PLNT$SHAK$TPR

Barclays Lowers McDonald's Price Target to $350 From $380

McDonald's (MCD) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $346.87, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $284.34, Change: $+0.24, Percent Change: +0.08%

Baird Cuts Price Target on McDonald's to $305 From $330, Maintains Neutral Rating

McDonald's (MCD) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $343.53, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $284.27, Change: $+0.16, Percent Change: +0.06%

Research84d ago

Research Alert: CFRA Upgrades Opinion On Shares Of Mcdonald's Corp To Buy From Hold

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We cut our target by $33 to $317, 24x our 2026 EPS estimate and in line with the shares' ten-year average forward multiple. We lower our 2026 EPS view to $13.21 from $13.44 and 2027's to $14.11 from $14.27. We upgrade MCD from Hold to Buy. Shares trade at a 12% discount to their ten-year forward average, creating an attractive entry point despite near-term margin headwinds from restaurant operating costs, particularly beef costs. We expect margin normalization as traffic gains scale and value messaging matures. Q1 results outperformed on total revenue, global comps, and adjusted EPS, with developed market comps of +3.9%, improving 490 bps sequentially, and developing markets maintaining momentum at +3.4%. In our view, results suggest value positioning is resonating globally and driving traffic recovery. MCD's category expansion into chicken and beverages provides incremental growth optionality, while >80% free cash flow conversion supports continued investment in restaurant development and shareholder returns.

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