Restaurant and food companies continue to see mixed performance, as stronger operators outperform while weaker brands face ongoing challenges, Morgan Stanley said in a note Wednesday.
Recent market shifts, including artificial intelligence and uncertainty around Iran, have led investors to better differentiate between companies still delivering and those that are not, the investment bank said, adding it does not expect any major near-term macroeconomic changes that would improve conditions for challenged brands.
Across the industry, large quick-service restaurants remain a weak segment, while beverage companies continue to perform strongly, and fast-casual restaurants are mixed but showing modest improvement, according to the note. Full-service restaurants are also mixed but remain solid overall, and food distributors continue to demonstrate resilience, the investment bank said.
"Recent slowing in industry data will be a focus, though perhaps short lived and comparisons help as we head into late Q3/Q4 for many and the overall industry," the bank added.
Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Starbucks (SBUX) to $111 from $110, Restaurant Brands International (QSR) to $79 from $78, CAVA Group (CAVA) to $90 from $86, and Dutch Bros (BROS) to $88 from $87, while lowering its price target on Domino's Pizza (DPZ) to $370 from $395, and McDonald's (MCD) to $322 from $331.
The bank downgraded Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) to equal-weight from overweight and cut its price target to $9 from $22, while upgrading CAVA Group (CAVA) to overweight from equal-weight and raising the price target to $90 from $86. Morgan Stanley downgraded Chefs' Warehouse (CHEF) to equal-weight from overweight while raising its price target to $97 from $83.
The bank also increased its price targets on Performance Food Group (PFGC) to $131 from $120, Sysco (SYY) to $88 from $84, and US Foods (USFD) to $103 from $94.
Price: $106.99, Change: $+0.82, Percent Change: +0.78%