McDonald's (MCD) is poised for underlying momentum with US and global market share gains likely through 2026 despite macro headwinds, UBS said in a note emailed Monday.
The company's negative US and international April same-store sales growth reflects tough prior year comparisons, and the setup over the rest of the year could include additional difficult laps and headwinds from higher gas prices and depressed consumer sentiment, UBS added.
UBS still expects solid sales gains in 2026, led by sales initiatives rolling out through the year across menu innovation, marketing campaigns, and digital and loyalty programs, along with stronger value offerings, according to the note.
McDonald's appears to be on track to reach approximately 50,000 stores by the end of 2027, but management is reviewing its development pipeline amid higher construction costs and supply chain challenges, the brokerage said, adding that the company is also considering franchising US co-owned stores partly due to softer-than-expected margins.
While sales trends will likely decelerate in Q2 due to slightly negative April comps given the difficult Minecraft limited-time offer lap, underlying momentum should remain solid and 2-year trends should accelerate, according to UBS.
UBS kept a buy rating on McDonald's with a price target of $365.
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