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U.S. Crude Oil Stocks Likely Fell 2.0 Million Barrels in Week Ended April 24, Macquarie Says

U.S. crude oil inventories are forecast to have fallen 2.0 million barrels in the week ended April 24, following an increase of 1.9 million barrels in the prior week, Macquarie said in a Monday note.From refineries, crude runs are expected to have increased 0.1 million barrels per day. Net imports are projected to have sharply declined, with exports up 1.3 million barrels per day and imports up 0.1 million barrels per day, Macquarie said.Implied domestic supply is expected to have risen 0.3 million barrels per day. Strategic petroleum reserves are forecast to have dropped 7.1 million barrels, according to Macquarie.Gasoline stocks are forecast to have decreased 4.0 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles are expected to have fallen 2.4 million barrels. Jet stocks, meanwhile, are projected to have gained 0.8 million barrels. Implied domestic demand for these three products are projected at 14.4 million barrels per day, Macquarie said.

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Crude Oil Prices Jump Amid Stalled Talks Between U.S., Iran

Crude oil prices surged on Tuesday as stalled peace talks between the U.S. and Iran fueled market concerns about prolonged disruptions in supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz.Brent crude at last look rose 2.8% to US$111.23/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 3.1% to $99.31/barrel. U.S. President Donald Trump is not satisfied with Iran's latest proposal to end the war, leaving the conflict deadlocked, Reuters said in a Tuesday report, citing an unnamed U.S. official.Iranian sources reported that it avoided addressing the nuclear program until hostilities cease and Gulf shipping disputes are resolved, the report said."With peace talks stalled and no clear path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, traders are factoring in a prolonged disruption to a critical artery of global supply," Reuters quoted Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon as saying."Even in a best-case scenario, any US-Iran agreement is likely to be narrow and partial, leaving the Strait issue unresolved, which means the upside risks to prices remain," Leon added.

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Crude Oil Prices Rise on Stalled U.S.-Iran Peace Talks

Crude oil prices rose on Monday as talks to end the war between the U.S. and Iran remain frozen and flows through the crucial Strait of Hormuz continue to be disrupted.Brent crude at last look gained 2.7% to US$108.17/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 2.4% to $96.63/barrel. The U.S. and Iran appear to still be far apart on issues including Iran's nuclear ambitions and the reopening of the strait, Reuters said in a Monday report."The diplomatic stand-off means that every day 10-13 million barrels of oil fail to get to the international market, worsening an already tight oil balance. Therefore, there is only one direction for oil prices to go," Reuters quoted PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga as saying.Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter oil price forecasts to $90/barrel for Brent and $83/barrel for WTI, citing reduced output from the Middle East, the report said.

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Crude Oil Prices Climb as Shipping Remains Blocked in Strait of Hormuz

Crude oil prices rose on Thursday amid a lack of progress in efforts to end the war in the Middle East, with shipping disruptions remaining in the Strait of Hormuz.Brent crude at last look gained 1.8% to US$103.69/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 1.8% to $94.62/barrel. This comes after larger-than-expected gasoline and distillate stock draws in the U.S. and continued restrictions in the strait despite an extended ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, Reuters said in a Thursday report."The oil market is repricing expectations with little sign of progress in finding a resolution in the Persian Gulf," Reuters quoted ING analysts as saying in a note.Iran on Wednesday seized two ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. is maintaining its blockade of Iran's trade by sea, suggesting continuing disruptions to shipments, analysts said, according to the report.

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Europe Faces Jet Fuel Shortage Amid Middle East War, Commerzbank Says

Crude oil has been the focus for many amid the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the shortage is particularly acute for refined oil products, and especially for jet fuel, Commerzbank said in a Tuesday note.Warnings have been growing about the shortage, mainly from the Airports Council International and the International Air Transport Association to the European economy, the bank noted.The International Energy Agency has examined the European jet fuel market and found an extremely tight picture. Jet fuel demand in European OECD countries stood at 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025, with 1.1 million barrels per day met by domestic production.About 75% of the resulting net import requirement was met by the Gulf region, which is currently strained due to the shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.The IEA also pointed to a significant drop in jet fuel stock levels. With the loss of supplies from the Middle East and without adequate replacement, stocks are at risk of falling further, particularly as demand is set to rise in the coming months, the bank said.The EU plans to present a draft proposal on Wednesday to address the jet fuel shortage and prevent impending restrictions on air travel. An EU-wide mapping of refining capacity for oil products is expected to be introduced next month, the bank noted, citing Reuters.Measures will also be introduced to ensure the full utilization and maintenance of refining capacity. However, as many refineries are already operating at full capacity, the measures are likely to have a limited impact, Commerzbank said.

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Crude Oil Prices Climb Following Gunfire Attacks on Ships in Strait of Hormuz

Crude oil prices rose on Wednesday after container ships were reportedly hit by gunfire in the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbating concerns about the conflict's impact on global supply.Brent crude at last look gained 0.7% to US$99.17/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 0.7% to $90.25/barrel. This comes after gunfire attacks on at least three container ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing maritime security sources and the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations.The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was indefinitely extended hours before its expiry to allow talks to end the war to proceed, the report said.Meanwhile, in Europe, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the Druzhba oil pipeline, which carries supplies from Russia, is ready to resume operation, according to the report. However, industry sources said in the report that Russia is set to halt exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the pipeline starting May 1.

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Crude Oil Prices Decline on Optimism About U.S.-Iran Peace Talks

Crude oil prices saw losses on Tuesday as the market looks forward to peace talks between the U.S. and Iran this week.Brent crude at last look lost 0.4% to US$95.13/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.8% to $88.04/barrel. Investors are focused on the likelihood that the talks will result in an extension of the ceasefire or a final agreement, easing concerns about disrupted supply flows through the region, Reuters said in a Tuesday report.However, the possibility of further conflict and prolonged supply disruptions remain. "We believe markets are underpricing the ongoing supply disruption. Optimism appears to be clouding the reality of the supply shock," Reuters quoted ING analysts as saying in a note."We continue to lean toward a [memorandum of understanding] being signed and/or the ceasefire being extended this week, potentially evolving into a broader agreement," Citi analysts were quoted as saying. "That said, we remain prepared to pivot toward a more protracted disruption scenario should negotiations falter this week."However, no decision has been made to attend on the part of Iran, an Iranian official said in the report.

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Crude Oil Markets Face Uncertainty Amid Developments in Middle East, Commerzbank Says

Uncertainty in the oil markets remain high as tensions are likely to rise significantly again, and price movements are heavily dependent on developments in the Middle East, Commerzbank said in a Friday note.According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, global oil disruptions now total about 13 million barrels per day.In the U.S., meanwhile, trends in inventories have been largely alarming, the bank noted. Crude imports plummeted last week, and a repeat of this would heighten the market's awareness of supply shortages, Commerzbank said.The IEA has also revised downward its forecast for oil demand this year in its monthly report. It no longer expects an increase, but rather a slight decline in global demand.The decline in demand is concentrated primarily in liquefied petroleum gas, naphtha and ethane, which are used as feedstocks in the petrochemical industry and are particularly affected by supply disruptions, the bank said.

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Crude Oil Prices Jump as U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Appears Fragile

Crude oil prices surged on Monday amid concerns about the fragility of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran affecting flows through the Strait of Hormuz.Brent crude at last look gained 5% to US$94.92/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude rose 6% to $88.89/barrel. This comes after the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship, and despite Iran's declaration that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened through the ceasefire, tankers have been fired upon by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Reuters reported Monday, citing analysts."Market fundamentals are getting worse, as 10-11 million barrels per day of crude oil remains shut in," Reuters quoted Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh as saying.Iran said it would not participate in a second round of negotiations that the U.S. had hoped to start before the two-week ceasefire expires this week, igniting fears of a resumption in hostilities, the report said.

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Crude Oil Prices Drop After Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire, Potential U.S.-Iran Talks

Crude oil prices declined on Friday following news of a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, as markets also eyed a possible end to the war between the United States and Iran.Brent crude at last look was down 3.3% to US$96.10/barrel and NY crude had fallen 4.1% to $90.75/barrel.Trump said Tehran had offered not to possess nuclear weapons for more than 20 years, according to the Reuters report. "We're going to see what happens. But I think we're very close to making a deal with Iran," Trump said on Thursday.U.S. and Iranian negotiators have scaled back expectations for a comprehensive peace deal and are instead considering a temporary memorandum to prevent a return to conflict, Reuters reported, citing two Iranian sources.

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U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories Fell 0.9 Million Barrels in Week Ended April 10, EIA Reports

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell by 0.9 million barrels to 463.8 million barrels in the week ended April 10, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report released Wednesday. They are about 1% above the five-year average for this time of year.Total motor gasoline inventories declined 6.3 million barrels to 232.9 million barrels. Distillate fuel stocks dropped 3.1 million barrels to 111.6 million barrels, the EIA reported.Crude oil refinery inputs fell 208,000 barrels per day to 16 million barrels per day week over week. Refineries operated at 89.6% of their operable capacity during the week, the EIA said.Crude imports were down 1 million barrels per day to 5.3 million barrels per day, according to the agency.

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Crude Oil Prices Rise as Market Expects Continued Supply Disruptions Despite U.S.-Iran Talks

Crude oil prices rose on Thursday as the war in the Middle East is expected to continue despite peace talks between the U.S. and Iran and the possibility of a two week ceasefire extension.Brent crude at last look had gained 1.4% to US$96.28/barrel while West Texas Intermediate crude was up 1.2% to $92.42/barrel. U.S. and Iranian officials consider returning to Pakistan for further talks as early as this weekend, Reuters said in a Thursday report.The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports is expected to exacerbate supply disruptions, the report said."We remain sceptical of any immediate solving of this war," Reuters quoted PVM oil market analyst John Evans as saying. "Pick any headline and there is always a counter."

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Signs Of Tightness Abound Ahead Of Impacts Of U.S. Blockade, Commerzbank Says

Signs of tightness in the oil market are proliferating as the supply situation is set to tighten further due to the maritime blockade, Commerzbank said in a Tuesday note.According to data from Kpler, Iran's oil exports stood at 1.84 million barrels per day in March and 1.71 million barrels per day so far in April, the bank noted.The price differentials between the various gasoil and Brent contract maturities on the forward curves are signaling tightness, while the price premium for physical crude on the spot market is even larger, Commerzbank said.Another sign of tight supply is the sharp rise in official selling prices for oil deliveries from the Gulf region. Though Saudi Arabia can divert its oil via the East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea and export it from there, Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil exports have been largely paralyzed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the bank said.For Arab Light, buyers in Asia must now pay a record-high premium of almost US$20/barrel over the Oman/Dubai benchmark. In April, the price premium was still at $2.5. Kuwait has also demanded a premium of $17/barrel over Oman/Dubai for oil supplied to Asia.

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Crude Oil Prices Rise As Markets Await Outcome Of Renewed U.S.-Iran Talks

Crude oil prices saw gains on Wednesday amid uncertainty about the outcome of renewed talks between the U.S. and Iran to end the war in the Middle East.Brent crude at last look rose 1.5% to US$96.24/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 1.2% to $92.46/barrel. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed due to the war, affecting global crude supply.U.S. President Donald Trump said talks with Iran could resume this week, Reuters said in a Wednesday report. This comes even as the U.S. has implemented a blockade of Iranian ports."The trajectory of oil prices will likely hinge less on battlefield developments and more on diplomatic momentum. Markets are increasingly reacting to headlines around negotiations rather than troop deployments," Reuters quoted Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, as saying.

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Crude Oil Prices Drop Amid Potential Resumption of U.S.-Iran Talks

Crude oil prices declined on Tuesday amid a potential resumption of talks between the U.S. and Iran to end the war, easing heightened supply concerns.Brent crude at last look lost 1.1% to US$98.28/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $96.92/barrel. Supply concerns, however, remain due to attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.The U.S. military said its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would extend east to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, and Iran responded by threatening to target ports in nations bordering the Gulf, the report said.Negotiating teams from the U.S. and Iran could return to Islamabad later this week, Reuters reported, citing five unnamed sources."In case talks between the adversaries fail to bear fruit, even revisiting the March highs cannot be ruled out as the decline in global oil inventories might spill into the third quarter and beyond," Reuters quoted PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga as saying.

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Crude Oil Prices Jump After U.S. Announced Strait of Hormuz Blockade, Lack of Ceasefire Deal

Crude oil prices surged on Monday after the U.S. announced it will start a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which followed a failure to reach a ceasefire deal with Iran.Brent crude at last look jumped 7.7% to US$102.54/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude rose 8.2% to $104.44/barrel. This comes after U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. Navy is preparing to block ships to and from Iran via the Strait of Hormuz, which could restrict Iranian oil exports, Reuters said in a Monday report.Iran's Revolutionary Guard said any military vessels attempting to approach the strait would be considered a violation of the ceasefire and will be dealt with, the report said."The announced U.S. blockade marks an admission that the ceasefire's central premise - at least as interpreted by the U.S. - which was the reopening of the Strait, is untenable for now," Nordic bank SEB analyst Erik Meyersson was quoted as saying by Reuters.

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Crude Oil Prices Rise as Attacks on Saudi Infrastructure Exacerbate Supply Concerns

Crude oil prices rose on Friday amid concerns about recent attacks on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and its impact on global supply.Brent crude at last look gained 1% to US$96.89/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 0.9% to $98.83/barrel. Prices are still expected to record weekly losses amid market optimism about the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran and Israel signaling a potential diplomatic opening, Reuters said in a Friday report.Attacks on Saudi facilities have cut its oil production capacity by about 600,000 barrels per day and throughput on the East-West Pipeline by about 700,000 bpd, Saudi state news agency SPA reported, citing an official source at the Ministry of Energy.Meanwhile, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was well below 10% of normal volumes on Thursday despite the ceasefire, Reuters reported.Mukesh Sahdev, founder & CEO of energy consultancy XAnalysts, said in the Reuters report that the "key variable now is how flows through the Strait of Hormuz actually resume - not whether they reopen."

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