-- Uncertainty in the oil markets remain high as tensions are likely to rise significantly again, and price movements are heavily dependent on developments in the Middle East, Commerzbank said in a Friday note.
According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, global oil disruptions now total about 13 million barrels per day.
In the U.S., meanwhile, trends in inventories have been largely alarming, the bank noted. Crude imports plummeted last week, and a repeat of this would heighten the market's awareness of supply shortages, Commerzbank said.
The IEA has also revised downward its forecast for oil demand this year in its monthly report. It no longer expects an increase, but rather a slight decline in global demand.
The decline in demand is concentrated primarily in liquefied petroleum gas, naphtha and ethane, which are used as feedstocks in the petrochemical industry and are particularly affected by supply disruptions, the bank said.