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Strait of Hormuz Closure to Deplete Global Crude Oil Inventories, Commerzbank Says

Hopes for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have faded, which means there is an increasing need to draw on inventories, Commerzbank said in a Friday note.Even if shipping traffic through the strait gradually resumes starting in June, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects a sharp decline in industrial oil inventories in OECD countries, the bank noted.In this scenario, the drawdown of global oil inventories is expected to average 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter.Market participants are likely to focus increasingly on inventory trends, especially if no agreement to end the war is in sight, Commerzbank said.In the US, the focus lies on the weekly inventory report from the US Department of Energy. In China, industrial production figures are in focus. If China's refineries have not scaled back processing despite lower crude oil imports, crude oil inventories there are also likely to decline, the bank said.

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Crude Oil Prices Drop as Trump Pauses Planned Attack on Iran

Crude oil prices declined on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump held off on a planned military attack on Iran as negotiations to end the war resumed.Brent crude at last look lost 1.6% to US$110.29/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.1% to $107.50/barrel. Trump also said the U.S. was ready to attack if a deal to end the war in the Middle East is not reached, Reuters said in a Tuesday report."We continue to jump from one news cycle to the next, with plenty of noise being created but, so far, no meaningful developments pointing toward the beginning of the end of the war," Reuters quoted Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank as saying.The crucial Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed amid the war resulted in a massive oil supply disruption, the report noted.

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Crude Oil Prices Surge as U.S. Statements on China Meeting Renew Focus on Supply Issues

Crude oil prices surged on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons, returning market focus to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Brent crude at last look jumped 3.1% to US$109.02/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude gained 3.5% to $104.72/barrel. Besides the U.S.-Iran deadlock and the blocked strait, the market is also concerned about renewed military escalation, Reuters said in a Friday report, citing analysts.Though the strait is still effectively closed, Iran's Revolutionary Guard said 30 vessels had crossed it since Wednesday evening, down from the typical number of 140 vessels before the war but a substantial increase if confirmed, the report said."Oil prices swung several times yesterday but still closed near the day's high," Reuters quoted Yang An, analyst at Haitong Futures, as saying. "Ships passing through the strait eased some market concerns, but not enough to change the strong trend driven by tight supply."

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Crude Oil Prices Rise as Market Awaits Outcome of U.S.-China Talks

Crude oil prices edged higher on Thursday as the market awaits the outcome of the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.Brent crude at last look gained 0.7% to US$106.41/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $101.55/barrel. The market is waiting for positive results on the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran from the U.S.-China talks, Reuters said in a Thursday report, citing analysts."Failure to make meaningful progress on reopening the strait could leave the U.S. with few options other than renewed military action," Reuters quoted IG analyst Tony Sycamore as saying in a note.This comes as Iran appears to have tightened its control over the Strait of Hormuz, cutting deals with Iraq and Pakistan to ship oil and liquefied natural gas from the Middle East, the report said.Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories declined by 4.3 million barrels to 452.9 million barrels in the week ended May 8 on rising exports, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday.

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Crude Oil Prices Edge Lower as Market Awaits Middle East Ceasefire Developments

Crude oil prices edged lower on Wednesday as the market waited for developments in the Middle East ceasefire, with the war continuing to drive price movements.Brent crude at last look lost 0.4% to US$107.37/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.7% to $101.51/barrel. The market is also awaiting the result of a summit in Beijing between U.S. President Donald Trump and China's Xi Jinping, Reuters said in a Wednesday report."The market remains highly reactive to every update from the region, meaning sharp swings are likely to persist. Any further escalation or direct threat to supply flows could quickly revive strong upside momentum in both Brent and WTI," Reuters quoted Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, as saying.Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency said global oil supply will not meet total demand this year amid impacts of the war in the Middle East."The latest IEA oil market report just showed the magnitude of the disruption with large oil inventory declines over the last two months," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo was quoted as saying.

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International34d ago

U.S. Energy Production Sets New Record in 2025 for 4th Consecutive Year, EIA Reports

U.S. energy production hit a new record high of 107 quadrillion British thermal units in 2025, up 3.4% from the previous record set in 2024, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a Monday note, citing its most recent Monthly Energy Review.Production was driven by record-high production in natural gas, crude oil, natural gas plant liquids and renewables, the EIA noted. This was the fourth consecutive year of record energy production for the U.S.Dry natural gas output rose more than 4% year over year to 39 trillion cubic feet in 2025, with most of the growth occurring in the Appalachia, Permian and Haynesville regions, the EIA said.Crude oil production grew 3% to 13.6 million barrels per day from 2024. Most of the growth comes from the Permian region of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico.Production of NGPLs, or hydrocarbons separated as liquids during natural gas processing, climbed 7% to 4 trillion cubic feet year over year. Like oil and natural gas output, NGPLs production also hit a new record in 2025, according to the agency.

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Crude Oil Prices Climb as Supply Concerns Escalate Amid Lack of Peace Deal

Crude oil prices saw gains on Tuesday amid dissipating hopes that an agreement between the U.S. and Iran to end the war will be reached.Brent crude at last look rose 2.9% to US$107.21/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 3.3% to $101.32/barrel. Disagreements persist between the two countries over demands that include the cessation of hostilities, the removal of the U.S. naval blockade, the resumption of Iranian oil sales and compensation for war damage, Reuters said in a Tuesday report."Optimism regarding an imminent (peace) deal seems to be fading again and if we don't see a deal by the end of May, then upside risks for oil prices are definitely on the table," Reuters quoted DBS Bank energy sector team lead Suvro Sarkar as saying.The continued near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to curtailed exports, with a Reuters survey showing that output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell to its lowest level in over two decades in April, the report said.

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Crude Oil Prices Surge on Lack of Peace Deal Between U.S. and Iran

Crude oil prices rose on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran's response to its proposal for a halt to the war was "unacceptable."Brent crude at last look gained 2.4% to US$103.74/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 2.2% to $97.55/barrel. The lack of a deal between the U.S. and Iran has renewed concerns that the global oil market will remain tight as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, Reuters said in a Monday note."Despite reassuring noises that back channels are still open and the parties are talking, our take is that the U.S. and Iran are as far away from agreement as when this supposed ceasefire started," Reuters quoted PVM Oil Associates analyst John Evans as saying.Even if the strait is reopened, it will take several months for the energy markets to normalize, the report said, citing analysts and Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser.

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Crude Oil Prices Mostly Hold Onto Gains Amid Renewed Hostilities in Middle East

Crude oil prices stabilized after seeing gains due to renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, sparking concerns about the ongoing ceasefire.Brent crude at last look was at US$99.89/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude was at $94.34/barrel. This comes after the U.S. and Iran were reportedly nearing a peace deal to end the war, Reuters said in a Friday report."Price formation is no longer anchored in a pragmatic reading of the war's trajectory or the physical realities in the Strait of Hormuz," Reuters quoted Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights, as saying.U.S. President Donald Trump said the ceasefire was still in effect despite the restart of fighting, according to the report."On the supply front, the picture remains tight," IG analyst Tony Sycamore was quoted as saying.

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Crude Oil Prices Drop as Market Hopes for U.S.-Iran Peace Deal

Crude oil prices dropped further on Thursday as the market continues to anticipate a peace deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz.Brent crude at last look fell 2.4% to US$98.86/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude lost 2.5% to $92.67/barrel. Understandings have been reached to ease the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports in exchange for a gradual reopening of the strait, Reuters said in a Thursday report, citing Saudi Arabia's Al Arabiya news agency. Reuters said it could not immediately verify the report.Iran previously said it was evaluating a U.S. peace proposal that could formally end the war, according to sources, the report said."If a formal deal eventually materialises, oil prices could witness a free fall as geopolitical premiums rapidly evaporate from the market. However, any fresh signs of attacks on oil infrastructure or escalation in the Middle East could easily trigger another parabolic spike in crude prices," Reuters quoted Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, as saying.

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Crude Oil Exports from Other Producing Countries Rise Amid Middle East War, Commerzbank Says

Amid production losses due to the war in the Middle East, crude oil exports from other producing countries are rising, Commerzbank said in a Tuesday note.Venezuela's oil exports climbed to 1.23 million barrels per day in April, up 150,000 barrels per day from the previous month and the highest level since the U.S. imposed sanctions on Venezuela's energy industry at the end of 2018, the bank noted.Nearly 450,000 barrels per day went to the U.S., which is the main buyer of Venezuelan oil. However, exports to India also rose to 374,000 barrels per day and exports to Europe increased to 165,000 barrels per day, Commerzbank said.The U.S. also boosted its oil exports in April to a record high of 5.2 million barrels per day, the bank said, citing data analysis firm Kpler. This was up from 3.9 million barrels per day in March.Meanwhile, at the Corpus Christi oil port in Texas, 240 tankers were recorded in March, up from the rough average of 200 tankers, according to Commerzbank.

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Crude Oil Prices Drop as U.S. Reportedly Nears Deal with Iran to End War

Crude oil prices plummeted on Wednesday on reports that the U.S. is nearing an agreement with Iran to end the war.Brent crude at last look dropped 6.8% to US$102.40/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude fell 7.5% to $94.58/barrel. The reported one-page framework was the closest the parties have come to an agreement since the war began, Reuters said in a Wednesday report, citing Axios.The price hikes have been driven by oil supply losses from disruptions in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz since the war began, the report said. The closure has resulted in a drawdown in global oil and fuel inventories in efforts to offset production shortfalls.American Petroleum Institute figures showed a drop in U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories, Reuters reported, citing market sources. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to report official figures on Wednesday.

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U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Likely Dropped 5 Million Barrels in Week Ended May 1, Macquarie Says

U.S. crude oil stocks are forecast to have dropped 5.0 million barrels in the week ended May 1, adding to a decline of 6.2 MM BBL in the prior week, Macquarie said in a Monday note.Crude runs at refineries are expected to have slightly increased by 0.1 million barrels per day. Net imports are projected to have risen, with exports down 0.4 MBD and imports up 0.4 MBD, Macquarie said.Implied domestic supply is expected to have declined 0.3 MBD. Strategic petroleum reserves are forecast to have decreased 5.2 MM BBL, according to Macquarie.Gasoline inventories are projected to have fallen 0.4 MM BBL. Distillate stockpiles are forecast to have fallen 3.8 MM BBL. Jet stocks are expected to have gained 0.2 MM BBL. Implied demand for these three products are expected at 14.6 MBD, Macquarie noted.

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Crude Oil Prices See Volatility Amid Renewed Hostilities Between U.S. and Iran

Crude oil prices fell on Tuesday but remained elevated amid volatility driven by renewed hostilities in the war between the U.S. and Iran.Brent crude at last look lost 1.2% to US$113.12/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude declined 1.9% to $104.40/barrel. This comes as the U.S. and Iran launched new attacks in the Gulf in efforts to gain control over the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters said in a Tuesday report.Analysts said the easing of prices in recent sessions are not due to improvement in fundamentals but represented a temporary relief, the report said. However, limited safe passage appears to be possible, helping drive away worst-case supply scenarios, analysts noted."Prices continue to trade in a highly volatile range, driven largely by ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz," Reuters quoted Phillip Nova's senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva as saying.

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Crude Oil Prices Jump Amid Lack of Peace Deal, Constrained Flows Through Strait of Hormuz

Crude oil prices surged on Monday as negotiations to end the war in Iran remain at a standstill, with a grim outlook for flows through the Strait of Hormuz.Brent crude at last look jumped 1.2% to US$109.43/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1% to $102.94/barrel. This comes as U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. plans to assist ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping through the waterway is still constrained, Reuters said in a Monday report.In response, Iran's military warned U.S. forces not to enter the strait, the report said."The path for prices remains skewed to the upside as long as flows through the Strait remain restricted," Reuters quoted UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo as saying.Trump is prioritizing a nuclear deal with Tehran, but Iran wants to defer nuclear talks until after the war and first lift rival blockades on Gulf shipping, Reuters reported.

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Crude Oil Prices Stay Elevated as U.S., Iran Remain at an Impasse

Crude oil prices remain elevated as there is no end in sight for the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed due to the conflict.Brent crude at last look gained 1.5% to US$112.06/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.8% to $105.93/barrel. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said it was not realistic to expect quick results from U.S. talks, Reuters said in a Friday report, citing the official IRNA news agency.A senior official of Iran's Revolutionary Guards had threatened "long and painful strikes" on U.S. positions if Washington renewed attacks on Iran, the report said.U.S. President Donald Trump is set to receive a briefing on plans for renewed military strikes on Iran to compel it to negotiate an end to the war, Reuters reported, citing a U.S. official.

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Crude Oil Prices Surge Amid Concerns About Escalation in U.S.-Iran War

Crude oil prices rose on Thursday, hitting a four-year high, amid concerns that hostilities in the Middle East may start up again and prolong the supply disruptions in the region.Brent crude at last look jumped 2.9% to US$121.48/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 1.5% to $108.51/barrel. This comes after Axios, citing unidentified sources, reported that U.S. President Donald Trump is set to receive a briefing on plans for a series of military strikes on Iran to push for a return to negotiations on its nuclear program, Reuters said in a Thursday report.Additionally, Trump spoke with oil companies about how to mitigate the impact of a possible months-long U.S. blockade, Reuters reported, citing a White House official.Continued price hikes risk a renewed spike in global inflation and higher fuel prices, the report said. "For those who do not think Brent prices have the potential to reach $150 a barrel, you ought to look away now," Reuters quoted John Evans of oil broker PVM as saying."Prospects for any near-term resolution to the Iran conflict or a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain dim," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore was quoted as saying in a note.

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Crude Oil Prices Continue Rising as Strait of Hormuz Remains Blocked, Commerzbank Says

Crude oil prices remain on an upward trajectory as the Strait of Hormuz has not yet been opened despite a halt in hostilities, as the situation has worsened due to the U.S. naval blockade against Iran, Commerzbank said in a Tuesday note.Talks between the U.S. and Iran have also come at a standstill, with a new offer from Iran to open the strait unlikely to be considered acceptable by the U.S., the bank noted. Iran is demanding an end to the blockade and the postponement of talks on the nuclear program.Concerns are also growing about a prolonged supply shortage in the oil market. This is also evident in the widening of time spreads, or the price differences between the various contract maturities along with Brent futures curve, according to Commerzbank.The spread between the nearest-month and the next-month Brent futures contracts is once again just under US$7, while the spread between the nearest-month and the seven-month contract is more than $20. These are the highest price premiums for oil available for immediate delivery in three weeks, the bank said.

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Crude Oil Prices Surge as U.S. Plans to Extend Iran Blockade, Fueling Supply Worries

Crude oil prices jumped on Wednesday, with Brent crude reaching a one-month high, amid reports that the U.S. plans to extend its blockade of Iranian ports.Brent crude at last look surged 3.2% to US$114.76/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 3.5% to $103.40/barrel. U.S. President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade, Reuters said in a Wednesday report, citing The Wall Street Journal.The move will prolong supply disruptions in the Middle East despite a ceasefire in the war with Iran, as talks to end the war have stalled, the report said."The recent rise in oil prices has been driven by the Strait blockade. If Trump is prepared to extend the blockade, supply disruptions would worsen further and continue to push oil prices higher," Reuters quoted Yang An, an analyst at Haitong Futures, as saying.Investors are also digesting market impacts of the United Arab Emirates' announcement to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, according to the report. However, analysts do not see major near-term impacts so far."The United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC+ formalises the organisations weaker cohesion, but the near-term impact is limited," Reuters quoted an ANZ Research note as saying. "The move reflects long-standing quota tensions, but prices are still being driven more by geopolitics, inventories and logistics than by institutional changes."

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International48d ago

U.S. Energy Production Climbs 3% YoY in January, EIA Reports

U.S. primary energy production rose 3% year over year in January to 9.1 quadrillion British thermal units, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its Monthly Energy Review released Monday.Total fossil fuels production in January was made up of 46% dry natural gas, 31% crude oil, 12% crude oil and 11% natural gas plant liquids, the EIA reported.Total renewable energy production was composed of 56% biomass, 20% wind, 12% hydroelectric power, 11% solar and 1% geothermal energy, according to the agency.U.S. natural gas plant liquids production was 7% higher in January than in the year-ago month. Dry natural gas production and renewable energy production each climbed 4%. Nuclear electric power production and coal production each increased 2%. Crude oil production rose 1%.

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