$LCON6

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$2.98; Settles at US$93.04 per Barrel

Brent Up 3.1% at Just Under US$94 and NY Crude Up 3.7% at Near US$90.60

Update: WTI Oil Closes at a Six-Week Low on Reports Iran and the U.S. May be Nearing a Peace Deal

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed at six-week Friday on reports the United States and Iran will extend their tenuous ceasefire while a Trump Administration official said the two sides are nearing a deal to end the war.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down $1.54 to settle at US$87.36 per barrel, the lowest since April 17, while July Brent oil was last seen down $1.74 to US$91.97.The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump Administration is near a deal to end the war, which enters its fourth month today. The paper said President Trump is pressing for Iran to for a commitment to surrender its stocks of enriched uranium and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Thursday reports that the two countries have extended a ceasefire for 60 days is also pressing prices.The Strait has been mostly closed to shipping since the Feb. 28 start to the war, blocking exports from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied 20% of daily oil demand. A peace deal could see shipping resume, but Iran is likely to maintain control of the waterway once hostilities end."Any end to the conflict that leaves Iran exercising operational control and influence over the Strait will result in appreciably lower flows through the waterway in our view. Moreover, we struggle to see how a sizeable number of Western shipping companies will be willing to risk transiting the waterway even if a 60-day MoU is inked, given the ever-present risk of recurrent rounds of military action involving missiles, drones, and mines. These factors are compounded by extremely elevated insurance rates as well as the legal difficulties associated with paying or coordinating with IRGC entities under US sanctions," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote.Still, hopes for a full return of Persian Gulf have cut into oil prices, which posted their largest monthly drop in six years on expectations for a peace deal. However prices are not expected to soon return to pre-war levels as importing countries rebuild depleted inventories."While significant hurdles remain, the market is reacting to the prospect of a supply surge once hundreds of tankers loaded with crude oil and refined fuels are released from the Persian Gulf. In the months ahead, however, demand to replenish depleted global inventories is likely to provide support, potentially lifting the price floor compared with pre-war levels," Saxo Bank noted.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$1.54; Settles at US$87.36 per Barrel

Oil Trading at a Six-Week Low on Reports Iran and the U.S. May be Nearing a Peace Deal

Oil traded at a six-week low early Friday on reports the United States and Iran will extend their tenuous ceasefire while a Trump Administration official said the two sides are nearing a deal to end the war.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down $1.26 to US$87.64 per barrel, the lowest since April 17, while July Brent oil was down $1.55 to US$92.16.The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump Administration is near a deal to end the war, which enters its fourth month today. The paper said President Trump is pressing for Iran to for a commitment to surrender its stocks of enriched uranium and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Thursday reports that the two countries have extended a ceasefire for 60 days is also pressing prices.The Strait has been mostly closed to shipping since the Feb. 28 start to the war, blocking exports from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied 20% of daily oil demand. A peace deal could see shipping resume, but Iran is likely to maintain control of the waterway once hostilities end."Any end to the conflict that leaves Iran exercising operational control and influence over the Strait will result in appreciably lower flows through the waterway in our view. Moreover, we struggle to see how a sizeable number of Western shipping companies will be willing to risk transiting the waterway even if a 60-day MoU is inked, given the ever-present risk of recurrent rounds of military action involving missiles, drones, and mines. These factors are compounded by extremely elevated insurance rates as well as the legal difficulties associated with paying or coordinating with IRGC entities under US sanctions," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote.Still, hopes for a full return of Persian Gulf have cut into oil prices, which are posting their largest monthly drop in six years on expectations for a peace deal. However prices are not expected to soon return to pre-war levels as importing countries rebuild depleted inventories."While significant hurdles remain, the market is reacting to the prospect of a supply surge once hundreds of tankers loaded with crude oil and refined fuels are released from the Persian Gulf. In the months ahead, however, demand to replenish depleted global inventories is likely to provide support, potentially lifting the price floor compared with pre-war levels," Saxo Bank noted.

Update: -- NY Crude Down 1.55% at Near US$87.50 and Brent Crude Down 1.5% at About US$92.30

Brent Crude Down 1.6% at About US$92.20

Update: WTI Oil Closes Higher But Gives Up Early Gains Following Reports Iran and the U.S. To Extend Ceasefire

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed with a small gain on Thursday but fell off early highs following reports s the United States and Iran agreed to extend their ceasefire even as they earlier traded strikesWTI crude oil for July delivery up US$0.22 to settle at US$US$88.90 per barrel after earlier touching US$92.52. July Brent oil was last seen down US$0.64 to US$93.65.The drop off session highs came after Axios reported the two countries will extend their ceasefire agreement. The potential deal comes despite earlier reports U.S. forces attacked a drone-control base in Iran and shot down Iranian drones, while Kuwait intercepted an Iranian missile and Iran attacked commercial shipping in the Persian GulfOil prices have climbed by half since Iran closed the Strait of Homuz on the Feb. 28 start to the war, blocking much of the 20% of daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations.In its weekly survey the Energy Information Administration reported U.S. commercial oil inventories fell by 3.3-million barrels last week, while the consensus estimate among analysts polled by Reuters expected a 4.1-million barrel drop.

Update: WTI Oi Closes Higher But Gives Up Early Gains Following Reports Iran and the U.S. To Extend Ceasefire

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed with a small gain on Thursday but fell off early highs following reports s the United States and Iran agreed to extend their ceasefire even as they earlier traded strikesWTI crude oil for July delivery up US$0.22 to settle at US$US$88.90 per barrel after earlier touching US$92.52. July Brent oil was last seen down US$0.64 to US$93.65.The drop off session highs came after Axios reported the two countries will extend their ceasefire agreement. The potential deal comes despite earlier reports U.S. forces attacked a drone-control base in Iran and shot down Iranian drones, while Kuwait intercepted an Iranian missile and Iran attacked commercial shipping in the Persian GulfOil prices have climbed by half since Iran closed the Strait of Homuz on the Feb. 28 start to the war, blocking much of the 20% of daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations.In its weekly survey the Energy Information Administration reported U.S. commercial oil inventories fell by 3.3-million barrels last week, while the consensus estimate among analysts polled by Reuters expected a 4.1-million barrel drop.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes up US$0.22; Settles at US$88.90 per Barrel

Market Chatter: Alberta Oil Pipeline to Cost Sector More Than C$100 Billion, Imperial Says

Alberta's proposed million-barrel-a-day pipeline to the British Columbia coast will require Canada's oil industry to invest more than C$100 billion ($72.5 billion), the chief executive officer of Imperial Oil Ltd. says, Bloomberg is reporting Thursday.Industry will need to invest capital in growing production to fill the new line, make shipping commitments, as well as invest in a carbon capture project mandated by the federal government, John Whelan said at the Energy Roundtable conference in Calgary. The total cost is "north of a hundred billion dollars that we will need to attract to this industry," he said. "Now I think we can do that, but that's kind of scale of what we're talking about."Thursday's report noted Alberta Premier Danielle Smith proposed a new pipeline to the west coast as part of her goal to eventually double oil production in the province. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has pledged to back the new pipeline in exchange for a series of measures including a higher industrial carbon tax and the deployment of a long-planned carbon capture project in the oil sands, called Pathways, to reduce emissions, it also noted.Alberta plans to roll out details of the new pipeline, including the planned route to the coast, by July for federal approval by October, the report says. But Alberta's preferred northwest route faces stiff pushback from Indigenous groups in BC as well as the province's Premier David Eby. The project may also require a lifting of a moratorium on oil tankers if the pipeline goes to the northern BC coast, which Smith wants, it adds.Construction could start late next year, the government has said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sources. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil Rebounds From a Month Low as Iran and the U.S. Trade Strikes, Raising Doubts a Peace Deal is Near

Oil rose off a month low early on Thursday as the United States and Iran traded strikes, a threat to peace talks to end a war that is entering its fourth month and produced the largest-every energy supply shock.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen up US$2.78 to US$91.46 per barrel, rising off the lowest since April 20. July Brent oil was up US$2.85 to US$91.46.The rise comes on fresh hostilities in the Persian Gulf. The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. forces attacked a drone-control base in Iran and shot down Iranian drones, while Kuwait intercepted an Iranian missile and Iran attacked commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf.Despite the fighting, the Journal said U.S. officials expect a strained ceasefire between the two countries to stay in place while peace talks in Qatar continue.Oil prices have climbed by half since Iran blockaded the Strait of Homuz on the Feb. 28 start to the war, blocking much of the 20% of daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations."Brent crude spiked ... after renewed US attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and retaliatory IRGC strikes targeting US bases, underscoring the limited prospect for a near-term peace deal as the US and Iran remained far apart on steps needed to reopen the vital waterway," Saxo Bank noted.Falling U.S. oil inventories are also offering support to oil prices. In its weekly survey, the American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. oil stocks fell by 2.8-million barrels last week, the sixth-straight weekly draw. The Energy Information Administration will release official inventory data later on Thursday.

Brent Crude Up Near 2% at About US$96.10

Update: WTI Oil Plunges to a Month Low on Expectations the War on Iran is Nearing an End

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil plunged 5.6% on Wednesday on expectations the United States and Iran are nearing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the largest-ever energy supply shock.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$5.21 to settle at US$88.68 per barrel, the lowest since April 20, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$5.30 to US$94.28.The drop comes as United States and Iran continue negotiations to end their war and reopen the crucial waterway that is the chokepoint for the 20% of daily oil supply from Persian Gulf nations that has been closed since the Feb. 28 start to the war.Talks between the two countries are continuing in Qatar and U.S. President Trump has repeatedly said a deal is near. Reuters reported Iranian State TV is saying it has seen a draft of "an initial, unofficial framework" for a peace agreement that sees the withdrawal of U.S. forces in the region while Iran and Oman will jointly managing shipping through the Strait.Though oil prices have retreated from April highs above US$110 per barrel, there is little expectations prices will quickly return to pre-war levels as importers look to rebuild inventories."Even if a deal is reached, market normalization is likely to take months, with ongoing demand for replacement barrels and depleted inventories potentially leading to a higher price floor than the one seen before the war," Saxo Bank noted.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$5.21; Settles at US$88.68 per Barrel

Oil Trading at a Month Low on Expectations the War on Iran is Nearing an End

Oil traded lower for a second session early on Wednesday on expectations the United States and Iran will reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the largest-ever energy supply shock.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down US$3.29 to US$90.60 per barrel, the lowest since April 20, while July Brent oil was down US$2.66 to US$96.92.The drop comes as United States and Iran continue negotiations to end their war and reopen the crucial waterway that is the chokepoint for the 20% of daily oil supply from Persian Gulf nations that has been closed since the Feb. 28 start to the war.Talks between the two countries are continuing in Qatar. While U.S. President Trump has repeatedly said a deal is near, The Guardian reported Iran is unwilling to agree to a deal that does not meet all its conditions. The paper said Iran has also launched talks with Oman on future regulations for ships transiting the Strait, which had been an international waterway prior to Iran's blockade.Though oil prices have retreated from April highs above US$110 per barrel, there is little expectations prices will quickly return to pre-war levels as importers look to rebuild inventories."Even if a deal is reached, market normalization is likely to take months, with ongoing demand for replacement barrels and depleted inventories potentially leading to a higher price floor than the one seen before the war," Saxo Bank noted.

Market Chatter: Canada To Sign Deal With Germany's SEFE For Ksi Lisims LNG, Reuters source says

Canada will sign a large-scale LNG agreement with Germany's SEFE for liquefied natural gas from the Ksi Lisims planned export facility on the coast of British Columbia, according to an industry source, Reuters is reporting Tuesday.The agreement, to be announced Wednesday in Vancouver by Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson, comes as Ksi Lisims' backers have been working to finalize contracts with purchasers before making an expected final investment decision this year, the report noted.Ksi Lisims, SEFE and Canada's natural resources ministry declined to comment.Bloomberg first reported the plans, while Shell and TotalEnergies have already signed 20-year LNG purchase agreements with Ksi Lisims, the report noted.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sources. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Update: WTI Oil Falls as U.S. Strikes on Iran Cloud Hopes for Successful Peace Talks

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower on Tuesday even after the United States carried out strikes on Iran, threatening to derail peace talks between the two countries.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$2.71 to settle at US$93.89 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen up US$3.40 to US$99.54While peace talks between Iran and the United States are underway, the United States on Monday launched attacks on what it said were missile-launching sites in Iran.The strikes come as the two countries continue talks to end the three-month war and reopen the Strait, which was the chokepoint for 20% of daily oil demand from Persian Gulf countries. Iran's blockade of the Strait following the Feb. 28 start to the war began the largest-ever oil supply shock and pushed up oil prices by more than half. The U.S. action threatens to prolong the market disruption."Fresh US military strikes in Iran clouded the outlook for an interim agreement between the US and Iran that could help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which around one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows under normal conditions, and which has remained largely closed since early March. While differences between the parties have narrowed, any eventual peace deal would likely lead only to a gradual reopening, meaning the current tight supply outlook could take months to normalize," Saxo Bank wrote.The Wall Street Journal reported talks between the two countries are continuing in Qatar despite the U.S. action, with Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani saying on Tuesday that the indirect talks are likely to continue.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$2.71; Settles at US$93.89 per Barrel

Market Chatter: MP Steven Guilbeault Could Quit Caucus As Soon As This Week Amid Concerns Over Govt Rollback of Climate Policies

Former environment and climate change minister Steven Guilbeault is considering resigning from the Liberal Party caucus due to his concern over the federal government's rollback of Trudeau-era climate policies and the most recent iteration of the MOU with Alberta aimed at building a new pipeline, four sources in the federal government tell CTV News.The sources say Guilbeault is considering remaining as an MP, but sitting as an Independent, and likely would not run in the next election.CTV News has reached out to Guilbeault's office but has not received a response by the time of publication. Sources close to the former minister who spoke to him Monday say he wasn't 100% decided yet.On his way into a cabinet meeting Tuesday morning, Prime Minister Mark Carney was asked by the Globe and Mail's Marieke Walsh if he expected Guilbeault to resign. He didn't reply.According to Tuesday's report, Guilbeault is not alone in his concern about climate policy rollbacks. More than a dozen Liberal MPs wrote recently to the prime minister to express worry over changes to methane and clean electricity regulations in Alberta moving the $130 per-tonne effective price on carbon target beyond 2030, as well as any possible public money going toward a new pipeline.Sources close to Guilbeault say he was disheartened that the MOU and corresponding rollback of the oil and gas emissions cap, and aforementioned regulations meant even Canada's 2050 net-zero was out of reach, according to analysis from the Canadian Climate Institute.Speculation over Guilbeault's political future ramped up after Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith agreed earlier this month to elements of an energy deal that could see construction of an oil pipeline begin as early as the fall 2027 if specific conditions are met.Back in November, Guilbeault resigned from Carney's cabinet where he served as Minister of Canadian Identity and Culture -- just hours after Carney and Smith signed the initial memorandum of understanding (MOU) on energy.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sources. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)