$LCON6

Update: WTI Falls Again on Hopes a Deal to End the Iran War is Near

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell for a third-straight session on Thursday but rose off the day's low on uncertain prospects for a potential peace deal between the United States and Iran.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$0.27 to settle at US$94.81 per barrel, after earlier touching US$89.85. July Brent oil was last seen down US$0.67 to US$100.60The drop, which follows on Wednesday's 7% fall for WTI prices, comes amid rising optimism the United States and Iran are closer to a peace deal. However the outlook for a deal is uncertain. The Guardian reported while U.S. President Trump is saying a deal is "very possible", Iranian media are reporting is only reviewing the proposal and considering its response.There is no certainty talks will result in a deal between the two countries that will see a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for exports from Persian Gulf nations that supplied 20% of the world's daily oil demand. More than 1,000 ships have been trapped in the Gulf since the Feb. 28 start to the war and supplies of oil, refined products, LNG, fertilizer and other commodities are running short."We should not be too optimistic about immediate agreement. A spokesperson for the Iranian finance ministry pushed back yesterday, calling parts of the US framework "ambitious and unrealistic proposals". So far, Tehran's wish list: set out in its 14-point response on May 2, is unchanged: full sanctions relief, release of frozen state assets, ~$270bn in reparations / reconstruction financing ("only way" to end the conflict), and a new multilateral mechanism for the SoH (Strait of Hormuz) that effectively recognizes Iranian sovereignty over it," Ole Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at SEB Research, wrote.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$0.27; Settles at US$94.81 per Barrel

Oil Prices Fall Again on Hopes a Deal to End the Iran War is Near

Oil prices fell again early on Thursday on rising hopes a potential peace deal between the United States and Iran will reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, ending the largest-ever oil supply shock.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for June delivery was last seen down US$3.06 to US$92.02 per barrel, while July Brent oil was down US$3.02 to US$98.25.The drop, which follows on Wednesday's 7% fall for WTI prices, comes amid rising optimism the United States and Iran are closer to a peace deal. The Wall Street Journal reported the two countries are working with mediators to come up with a framework to resume negotiations, with talks in Pakistan beginning as soon as next week on a 14-point memorandum of understanding (MoU) offered by the Trump Administration.There is no certainty talks will result in a deal between the two countries that will see a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for exports from Persian Gulf nations that supplied 20% of the world's daily oil demand. More than 1,000 ships have been trapped in the Gulf since the Feb. 28 start to the war and supplies of oil, refined products, LNG, fertilizer and other commodities are running short.The Guardian reported U.S. President Trump is signaling a deal is "very possible", even as Iranian officials called the MoU an "American wish list"."We should not be too optimistic about immediate agreement. A spokesperson for the Iranian finance ministry pushed back yesterday, calling parts of the US framework "ambitious and unrealistic proposals". So far, Tehran's wish list: set out in its 14-point response on May 2, is unchanged: full sanctions relief, release of frozen state assets, ~$270bn in reparations / reconstruction financing ("only way" to end the conflict), and a new multilateral mechanism for the SoH (Strait of Hormuz) that effectively recognizes Iranian sovereignty over it," Ole Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at SEB Research, wrote.

Brent Crude Down Near 2.2% at Just Over US$99, NY Crude Down 2.25% at Near US$92.90

Update: WTI Oil Plunges Following Reports the U.S. and Iran May Be Close to a Peace Deal

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil plunged 7% on Wednesday following reports the United States and Iran are close to an agreement to end their war, offering the possibility the Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$7.19 to settle at US$95.08 per barrel after touching US$88.66 in Asian trade, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$9.13 to US$100.74.The drop came as Axios overnight reported the two countries were close to a negotiated deal to end hostilities, which was later confirmed by U.S. President Trump. In a social media post, Trump said the war "will be at an end" and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen to traffic if Iran agrees to a U.S. peace proposal, while threatening to resume bombing if its terms are rejected.Citing Iran's state media, Reuters reported Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is claiming the Strait, the chokepoint for exports from Persian Gulf nations supplying 20% of daily oil demand, could reopen if a deal is reached.Oil prices have climbed by more than half since Iran closed the Strait when the war began on Feb. 28, trapping exports of oil, LNG, fertilizers and other commodities in the Persian Gulf. However an end to the war is unlikely to see a quick return to normal. Iranian attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in neighboring countries and restarting production from shut-in oilfields will limit a quick return to pre-war operating levels."If Hormuz were to be reopened, it would take an additional seven months at minimum to fully restore upstream production, assuming no permanent damage and supply chains operate smoothly. A recovery could take longer if there is damage to ports or other transport and loading infrastructure," S&P Global Energy noted.The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported another drop in U.S. commercial oil inventories, saying stocks fell by 2.3-million barrels last week, under the consensus estimate for a drop of 3.3-million barrels among analysts polled by Reuters.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$7.19; Settles at US$95.08 per Barrel

Oil Prices Plunge Following Reports the U.S. and Iran May Be Close to a Peace Deal

Oil prices plunged early Wednesday following reports the United States and Iran are close to an agreement to end their war, offering the possibility the Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen.West Texas Intermediate crude oil was last seen down $8.63 to US$93.64 per barrel after touching US$88.66 in Asian trade, while July Brent oil was down $8.64 to US$101.23.The drop came as Axios overnight reported the two countries were close to a negotiated deal to end hostilities, which was later confirmed by U.S. President Trump. In a social media post, Trump said the war "will be at an end" and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen to traffic if Iran agrees to a U.S. peace proposal, while threatening to resume bombing if its terms are rejected.Citing Iran's state media, Reuters reported Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is claiming the Strait, the chokepoint for exports from Persian Gulf nations supplying 20% of daily oil demand, could reopen if a deal is reached.Oil prices have climbed by more than half since Iran closed the Strait when the war began on Feb. 28, trapping exports of oil, LNG, fertilizers and other commodities in the Persian Gulf. However an end to the war is unlikely to see a quick return to normal. Iranian attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in neighboring countries and restarting production from shut in oilfields will limit a quick return to pre-war operating levels."If Hormuz were to be reopened, it would take an additional seven months at minimum to fully restore upstream production, assuming no permanent damage and supply chains operate smoothly. A recovery could take longer if there is damage to ports or other transport and loading infrastructure," S&P Global Energy noted.A big drop in U.S. oil inventories limited oil's retreat Wednesday. In its weekly survey, the American Petroleum Institute reported domestic oil stocks dropped by 8.1-million barrels last week, well above consensus estimate for a 2.8-million draw, according to Investing.com. The Energy Information Administration will release official inventory data later Wednesday morning.

Brent Crude Down 9.6% and Under US$100 and NY Crude Down 10.4% at Near US$91.60

Brent Crude Down 7.3% at US$101.85 and NY Crude Down 8.25% at Near US$93.80

Update: WTI Crude Oil Falls as the Iran War Ceasefire Holds After Monday's Attacks

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell 3.9% on Tuesday with the ceasefire between the United States and Iran seen holding, calming Monday's gains as violence in the Persian Gulf eased.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$4.15 to settle at US$102.27 per barrel, after rising 4.4% on Monday, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$4.24 to US$110.20.Hostilities in the Iran war picked up on Monday as Iran attacked the United Arab Emirates' Fujairah oil port on the Gulf of Oman, which had been continuing to export oil since the Feb. 28 start to the war, even as Persian Gulf supply remains trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz. It also fired on U.S. warships, claiming to have struck one naval vessel with two missiles, which was denied by the U.S. military.The United States responded by attacks on Iranian fast boats while President Trump said the United States will begin guiding ships through the Strait. Reuters reported the Alliance Fairfax, a U.S.-flagged vehicle carrier, transited the Strait on Monday accompanied by the U.S. military.Still, despite the strikes, reports said U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, speaking at a Tuesday morning press conference, said the ceasefire remains in effect while promising to continue to press to open the Strait of Hormuz.Still, the war has produced the largest-ever oil supply shock as the closure of the Strait blocked exports from the Persian Gulf, which supplied 20% of daily oil demand, keeping oil prices near four-year highs, with any relief unlikely until a peace deal is reached despite U.S. efforts to reopen the waterway."Despite US plans to restore shipping, security risks may keep the route closed until a US-Iran deal, sustaining concern over energy prices," Saxo Bank wrote.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$4.15; Settles at US$102.27 per Barrel

Oil Prices Ease as the Iran War Ceasefire Holds After Monday's Attacks

Oil traded lower early on Tuesday with the ceasefire between the United States and Iran seen holding, calming Monday's gains as violence in the Persian Gulf eased.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery was last seen down US$3.48 to US$102.94 per barrel, after rising 4.4% on Monday, while July Brent oil was down US$1.85 to US$112.59.Hostilities in the Iran war picked up on Monday as Iran attacked the United Arab Emirates' Fujairah oil port on the Gulf of Oman, which had been continuing to export oil since the Feb. 28 start to the war, even as Persian Gulf supply remains trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz. It also fired on U.S. warships, claiming to have struck one naval vessel with two missiles, which was denied by the U.S. military.The United States responded by attacks on Iranian fast boats while President Trump said the United States will begin guiding ships through the Strait. Reuters reported the Alliance Fairfax, a U.S.-flagged vehicle carrier, transited the Strait on Monday accompanied by the U.S. military.Still, despite the strikes, reports said U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, speaking at a Tuesday morning press conference, said the ceasefire remains in effect while promising to continue to press to open the Strait of Hormuz.Still, the war has produced the largest-ever oil supply shock as the closure of the Strait blocked exports from the Persian Gulf, which supplied 20% of daily oil demand, keeping oil prices near four-year highs, with any relief unlikely until a peace deal is reached despite U.S. efforts to reopen the waterway."Despite US plans to restore shipping, security risks may keep the route closed until a US-Iran deal, sustaining concern over energy prices," Saxo Bank wrote.

Brent Crude Down 1.4% at Near US$112.80 and NY Crude Down 2.2% at Just Over US$104

Update: WTI Oil Moves Higher on Escalating Middle East Violence

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed higher Monday in volatile as traders eye escalating violence in the Persian Gulf.WTI oil for June delivery closed up US$4.48 to settle at US$106.42 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen up US$6.53 to US$114.70.Iran attacked the United Arab Emirates oil port of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman, which has allowed the country to continue exporting oil while the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. The Wall Street Journal reported Iran also fired missiles at U.S. warships and commercial vessels.Iran's Fars News Agency also reported Iranian forces struck a U.S. warship with two missiles to prevent it from moving into the Strait, which Iran blocked at the Feb. 28 start of the war, cutting off 20% of the world's oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations. However, The Guardian reported U.S. Central Command dismissed the report, while continuing the blockade of Iranian ports.U.S. President Trump in a weekend social media post said the U.S. would begin escorting ships trapped in the Gulf through the Strait, but offered no details on the scheme. The Wall Street Journal reported Trump "intends to use countries, insurance companies and shipping organizations to move traffic through the strait. It doesn't currently involve U.S. Navy warships escorting vessels through the waterway", citing two U.S. officials. The uncertain details of the plan has done little to lower prices, which have climbed by about half since the conflict began."The market remains fragile because the plan's implementation is uncertain, and Kuwait's oil exports reportedly falling to zero underlines how severe the regional supply disruption has become," Saxo Bank wrote.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$4.48; Settles at US$106.42 per Barrel

Oil Moves Higher as U.S. Denies Iran's Claim It Hit a U.S. Warship with Missiles

Oil prices were higher early Monday in volatile trade after Iran claimed it struck a U.S. warship moving into the Strait of Hormuz with two missiles, a claim denied by U.S. Central Command, according to reports. If such a hit did happen, it would potentially bringing an end to a ceasefire between the two countries.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery was last seen up $1.38 to US$103.32 per barrel, after touching US$107.46 in Asian trade, while July Brent oil was up $2.64 to US$110.81.Iran's Fars News Agency reported Iranian forces struck the U.S. ship to prevent it from moving into the Strait, which Iran blocked at the Feb. 28 start of the war, cutting off 20% of the world's oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations. However, The Guardian reported U.S. Central Command dismissed the report, while continuing the blockade of Iranian ports.U.S. President Trump in a weekend social media post said the U.S. would begin escorting ships trapped in the Gulf through the Strait, but offered no details on the scheme. The Wall Street Journal reported Trump "intends to use countries, insurance companies and shipping organizations to move traffic through the strait. It doesn't currently involve U.S. Navy warships escorting vessels through the waterway", citing two U.S. officials. The uncertain details of the plan has done little to lower prices, which have climbed by about half since the conflict began."The market remains fragile because the plan's implementation is uncertain, and Kuwait's oil exports reportedly falling to zero underlines how severe the regional supply disruption has become," Saxo Bank wrote.

NY Crude Now Up 3.5% at US$105.50 and Brent Crude Up 3.6% at Near US$112.10

NY Crude Up 4.3% at US$106.30 and Brent Crude Up 4.8% at Near US$113.35; Iran Announcing New 'Control Zone' In Strait of Hormuz, says Bloomberg TV, citing Tasnim

Brent Crude Up 1.6% at Near US$109.90

Update: WTI Oil Falls As Iran Offers New Peace Plan

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower Friday as Iran made a new peace proposal, however U.S. President Trump rejected the plan.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$3.13 to US$101.94 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$2.177 to US$108.23.Reuters reported Iran offered a new proposal to reach a peace deal with the United States. While details were not disclosed Trump rejected the plan, telling reporters he was not satisfied with the plan. However he confirmed indirect talks mediated by Pakistan are continuing by phone.Oil remains in short supply following the closure of the Strait, the chokepoint for exports from the Persian Gulf nations that accounted for 20% of daily demand. The lack of supply has pushed up crude oil prices by more than half since the Feb.28 start of the war amid shortages of crude oil and refined products, with Nymex gasoline futures up 81% since the war began while supplies of aviation are tightening.The supply crunch comes ahead of the May 23 start to the Memorial Day weekend, the traditional start of the summer driving season, when demand for fuel peaks, which is likely to push prices even higher."With summer demand season quickly approaching, we see a path for oil prices to exceed the 2022 and even 2008 highs, especially as sentiment may finally be shifting on the duration of the Hormuz blockage," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote.