$LCON6

Oil Prices Mixed Early as U.S. Strikes on Iran Cloud Hopes for Successful Peace Talks

Oil prices were mixed early on Tuesday after the United States carried out strikes on Iran, threatening to derail peace talks between the two countries.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down US$3.85 to US$92.75 per barrel, the lowest since April 21, while July Brent oil was up US$2.90 to US$99.04.While peace talks between Iran and the United States are underway, the United States on Monday launched attacks on what it said were missile-launching sites in Iran.The strikes come as the two countries continue talks to end the three-month war and reopen the Strait, which was the chokepoint for 20% of daily oil demand from Persian Gulf countries. Iran's blockade of the Strait following the Feb. 28 start to the war began the largest-ever oil supply shock and pushed up oil prices by more than half. The U.S. action threatens to prolong the market disruption."Fresh US military strikes in Iran clouded the outlook for an interim agreement between the US and Iran that could help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which around one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows under normal conditions, and which has remained largely closed since early March. While differences between the parties have narrowed, any eventual peace deal would likely lead only to a gradual reopening, meaning the current tight supply outlook could take months to normalize," Saxo Bank wrote.The Wall Street Journal reported talks between the two countries are continuing in Qatar despite the U.S. action, with Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani saying on Tuesday that the indirect talks are likely to continue.

Brent Crude Up 3.1% at Near US$99.10 As US Strikes Iranian Targets While Peace Talks Continue

TSX Closer: Index Posts Record Highs Even As RBC and National Bank Both Try and Put the Oil Price Shock In Context

The resources heavy Toronto Stock Exchange raced to fresh record intraday and closing highs after rising for a fourth straight session on Monday, even as a sharply lower oil price prompted both RBC and National Bank to try and put the related market shock in context.Today the TSX closed up 359.53 points or 1% at 34,830.89 with most sectors higher. After climbing above 34,840 early in the session, the index then succumbed to some likely profit taking, but then it recovered from nearer 34,700 mid-afternoon.According to Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet the TSX going in to Monday was month-to-date up 1.49% and year-to-date up 2,758.60 points or 8.70%.Base Metals led gainers (up 2.3%) as gold traded higher by midafternoon Monday with the U.S. dollar falling on hopes the United States and Iran are nearing a deal to end the three-month war that has caused the largest-ever energy supply shock. Gold for July delivery was up $49.60 to US$4,606.00 per ounce in electronic trade, with markets closed for the Memorial Day holiday.But Energy was down 3.3% as oil traded sharply lower midafternoon Monday, falling more than 6% as peace negotiations between Iran and the U.S. continue, raising hopes for a deal that will reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down US$6.21 to US$90.39 per barrel in electronic trade, with markets closed for the Memorial Day holiday, July Brent oil was down US$7.40 to US$96.14.RBC today moved to put the oil price shock in context, and noted lots of focus on the nominal price of oil (Brent/WTI). The bank said nominal prices matter for inflation, but added the real oil price (i.e. cost per barrel divided by the price level or equivalently the CPI adjusted price of oil) matters for real GDP growth.Among observations, RBC noted the current real price of oil is around the average since 2006. "Oil is neither low nor high." It also noted that to reach the real oil price high in 2022, the nominal price needs to rise to US$131 (+25% compared to current WTI); to reach the average real oil price between 2011-14, the nominal price of oil needs to reach $143 (+38%); and to hit the 2007-2008 average real oil price, the nominal price needs to hit $164 (+58%).In looking at what does it potentially mean, RBC said, yes, the nominal price will cause headline inflation and maybe cause a rise in core inflation.According to RBC, economies generally managed growth "just fine" since 2006 with a similar real oil price as now, and demand destruction is probably a long way off. The bank noted oil intensity, the volume of oil required to generate one unit of gross domestic product (GDP), has been steadily falling over the past 40 years (down 50% since the mid-70s) and particularly in the past 20 years due to improvements in technology & transportation. "Thinking about it another way, the U.S. consumes roughly the same amount of barrels now as in the mid-70s, but real GDP is higher by a magnitude of 3.5x. So, an oil shock has been having a smaller impact on demand/consumption/GDP over time," RBC added.For policymakers, RBC said "the inflation consequences are real while the demand implications are murkier." To protect against the worst outcome (inflation), policy might need to be tightened, even if reluctantly, the bank added. "Now if a US-Iran deal caused oil to fall materially, the calculus would shift significantly less hawkish. This is a generic conclusion on central bank reaction functions."Elsewhere, Ethan Currie and Taylor Schleich over at National Bank noted economic data in Canada has "stumbled out the gate" so far in 2026, both in absolute terms (for example, the year-to-date employment decline) and relative terms (compared to consensus expectations).Indeed, last week, Canada's economic surprise index reached its lowest level since the fall of 2022, they said. "Back then, the Bank of Canada was bludgeoning the economy with rate hikes, after an oil supply shock that began earlier in the year contributed to an inflation surge. Sound familiar?," the National Bank added.But when it comes to the economic and inflation environment in 2026, this time is different, allowing the Bank of Canada to take a more patient policy approach, according to the National Bank duo.

Update: Oil Prices Slump as the United States and Iran Continue Peace Talks

Oil traded sharply lower midafternoon Monday, falling more than 6% as peace negotiations between Iran and the Untied States continue, raising hopes for a deal that will reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down US$6.21 to US$90.39 per barrel in electronic trade, with markets closed for the Memorial Day holiday, July Brent oil was down US$7.40 to US$96.14.The drop comes as the countries continue talks to end the war that has kept the Strait closed for nearly three months, blocking much of the 20% of daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations. The Wall Street Journal reported Iran is willing to lift its blockade of the Strait in exchange for the United States ending its blockade of Iranian ports, though Iran warned a final deal is not imminent.The closure of the Strait has boosted oil prices to four-year highs, raising inflation and pressuring U.S. President Trump to come up with a deal to end the war as the high-demand U.S. driving season begins with today's Memorial Day holiday, further squeezing supply."Both Trump and Iran have strong reasons to find a quick way out of the war and crisis, for economic, financial, political and military reasons," SEB Research noted.

Oil Prices Slump as the United States and Iran Continue Peace Talks

Oil traded sharply lower early Monday, falling 6% as peace negotiations between Iran and the Untied States continue, raising hopes for a deal that will reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down $5.77 to US$90.83 per barrel, the lowest since April 20, while July Brent oil was down $6.20 to US$97.34.The drop comes as the countries continue talks to end the war that has kept the Strait closed for nearly three months, blocking much of the 20% of daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations. The Wall Street Journal reported Iran is willing to lift its blockade of the Strait in exchange for the United States ending its blockade of Iranian ports, though Iran warned a final deal is not imminent.The closure of the Strait has boosted oil prices to four-year highs, raising inflation and pressuring U.S. President Trump to come up with a deal to end the war as the high-demand U.S. driving season begins with today's Memorial Day holiday, further squeezing supply."Both Trump and Iran have strong reasons to find a quick way out of the war and crisis, for economic, financial, political and military reasons," SEB Research noted.

Update: WTI Oil Edges Up as Hopes for a Diplomatic Agreement to End the War on Iran Fade

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed with a small gain Friday on fading hopes for a quick peace deal between the United States and Iran.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed up US$0.25 to settle at US$96.60 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen up up US$0.75 to US$103.33.The rise comes as prospects for a speedy end to the war on Iran fade, though the two sides continue indirect negotiations after the U.S. this week offered Iran a new peace plan. However, a key U.S. demand calling for Iran to surrender its nuclear stockpiles has been rejected by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and the Strait of Hormuz, remains blocked, keeping much of the 20% of daily oil demand produced by Persian Gulf nations off the market."Hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Iran conflict supported markets, with Tehran saying the latest proposal from Washington had helped narrow differences between the two sides. However, major hurdles remain, with the US demanding that Iran hand over its enriched uranium stockpile and commit to ending uranium enrichment, terms Iranian leaders have publicly resisted," Saxo Bank wrote.The supply shock that followed the end of the war has raised oil prices by more than half on an undersupplied market. But demand is set to climb with the start of the U.S. summer driving season which begins with this weekend's Memorial Day holiday.The Guardian reported Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, on Thursday warned the start of the travel season could push oil prices into a "red zone" as inventories continue to deplete, while demand is set to rise amid the travel season. He also said production from the Persian Gulf is likely to take a year to recover from the damage caused by the war.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$0.25; Settles at US$96.60 per Barrel

Oil Trading Higher as Hopes for a Diplomatic Agreement to End the War on Iran Fade

Oil traded higher early Friday on fading hopes for a quick peace deal between the United States and Iran. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen up $1.32 to US$97.67 per barrel, while July Brent oil was up $210 to US$104.88.The rise comes as prospects for a speedy end to the war on Iran fade, though the two sides continue indirect negotiations after the U.S. this week offered Iran a new peace plan. However, a key U.S. demand calling for Iran to surrender its nuclear stockpiles has been rejected by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and the Strait of Hormuz, remains blocked, keeping much of the 20% of daily oil demand produced by Persian Gulf nations off the market."Hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Iran conflict supported markets, with Tehran saying the latest proposal from Washington had helped narrow differences between the two sides. However, major hurdles remain, with the US demanding that Iran hand over its enriched uranium stockpile and commit to ending uranium enrichment, terms Iranian leaders have publicly resisted," Saxo Bank wrote.The supply shock that followed the end of the war has raised oil prices by more than half on an undersupplied market. But demand is set to climb with the start of the U.S. summer driving season which begins with this weekend's Memorial Day holiday.The Guardian reported Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, on Thursday warned the start of the travel season could push oil prices into a "red zone" as inventories continue to deplete, while demand is set to rise amid the travel season. He also said production from the Persian Gulf is likely to take a year to recover from the damage caused by the war.

Brent Crude Up 2.7% at Near US$105.30 and NY Crude Up 2.15% at About US$98.45

Update: WTI Oil Falls Again as Iran is Reportedly Refusing to Surrender Its Uranium Stocks

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell for a third day on Thursday as the United States awaits Iran's response to it latest peace proposal, though reports said the Persian Gulf country will not agree to U.S. demands to end its nuclear program.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$1.91 to settle at US$96.35 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$1.54 to US$103.48.The drop comes a day after the United States sent Iran a fresh peace offer while threatening to resume attacks on the country should its terms be rejected. While Iran has yet to formally respond Reuters reported Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei ordered the country's stocks of enriched uranium would not be surrendered, blocking a key U.S. peace demand.The news agency said that along with Iran's refusal to end its nuclear program, it also formed a Persian Gulf Strait Authority to firm its control of the Strait of Hormuz, the choke point for 20% of global oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations.Iran blockaded the Strait at the Feb. 28 start to the war, producing the largest-ever energy supply shock, boosting oil prices by more than half and boosting inflation and raising fears central banks will need to raise interest rates and slow global growth while roiling markets."Oil moved sharply lower (Wednesday) after Trump stated that the US was in the "final stages" of talks with Iran, raising hopes that some form of diplomatic breakthrough could eventually ease supply disruptions. Those hopes faded after subsequent comments warning that "there's more fighting to come unless Iran gets smart. Markets increasingly appear trapped between these alternating signals. The result has been substantial price volatility without delivering the one development that ultimately matters: a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a normalization of regional energy flows," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$1.91; Settles at US$96.35 per Barrel

Oil Prices Rise as Iran Reportedly Refusing to Surrender Its Uranium Stocks

Oil prices are up early Thursday, rebounding from a day-prior plunge as the United States awaits Iran's response to it latest peace proposal, though reports said the Persian Gulf country will not agree to U.S. demands to end its nuclear program.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen up $2.34 to US$100.60 per barrel, while July Brent oil was up $1.94 to US$106.96.The rise comes a day after the U.S. sent Iran a fresh peace offer while threatening to resume attacks on the country should its terms be rejected. While Iran has yet to formally respond Reuters reported Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei ordered the country's stocks of enriched uranium would not be surrendered, blocking a key U.S. peace demand.The news agency said that along with Iran's refusal to end its nuclear program, it also formed a Persian Gulf Strait Authority to firm its control of the Strait of Hormuz, the choke point for 20% of global oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations.Iran blockaded the Strait at the Feb. 28 start to the war, producing the largest-ever energy supply shock, boosting oil prices by more than half and boosting inflation and raising fears central banks will need to raise interest rates and slow global growth while roiling markets."Oil moved sharply lower (Wednesday) after Trump stated that the US was in the "final stages" of talks with Iran, raising hopes that some form of diplomatic breakthrough could eventually ease supply disruptions. Those hopes faded after subsequent comments warning that "there's more fighting to come unless Iran gets smart. Markets increasingly appear trapped between these alternating signals. The result has been substantial price volatility without delivering the one development that ultimately matters: a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a normalization of regional energy flows," Ole Hansen head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote.

Brent Crude Up 1.5% at Near US$106.50, NY Crude Up 1.7% at Near US$100 As Bloomberg TV Cites Report of Iran Supreme Leader Saying Uranium Must Stay In Iran

Market Chatter: Canada PM Carney Pitches Reluctant British Columbia on New Oil Pipeline to Fuel Asia

Prime Minister Mark Carney said people in British Columbia should see "substantial economic and financial benefits" from a proposed new oil pipeline to the province's coast, which BC Premier David Eby opposes, Bloomberg is reporting Wednesday.Last Friday, the neighboring province of Alberta signed a deal with Carney on energy rules, helping pave the way for a pipeline it is proposing to carry 1 million barrels of crude a day to the west coast for shipment to Asian markets, the report noted.It faces environmental and Indigenous resistance in BC, the report also noted.In an address to the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade, Carney said it would only be built under three conditions: benefits for BC, the building of a massive carbon capture project and consultation with Indigenous people.One item on the agenda is a national harmonized levy on carbon, Carney said. Last week's deal with Alberta included a lower carbon price than the previous federal minimum. The new lower figure will also now apply for all provinces, according to the government's website.The prime minister said he'll engage with BC and other provinces about the new threshold.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sources. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Update: WTI Plunges 5.7% as Trump Says an Iran Deal is Near

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday after as U.S. President Trump said negotiations with Iran were in their final stages while threatening to renew attacks if a deal cannot be reached.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$5.89 to settle at US$98.26 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$6.18 to US$105.10.Reuters reported Trump on Wednesday told reporters "We're in the final stages of Iran. We'll see what happens. Either have a deal or we're going to do some things that are a little bit nasty, but hopefully that won't happen".Iranian media confirmed it received a fresh U.S. offer through an intermediary and is reviewing the proposed deal.The war has blocked the Strait of Hormuz since it began on Feb. 28, keeping the 20% of daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations mostly off the market and producing the world's largest-ever supply shock. Though the closure of the Strait has already pushed oil prices up by more than half, analytics firm Woods Mackenzie said if the war is extended until the end of the year, oil prices could rise as high as US$200 per barrel, though a quick settlement could lower Brent prices to US$80 by year end."The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical chokepoint in global energy markets, and a prolonged closure would become far more than an energy crisis," said Peter Martin, head of economics at Wood Mackenzie. "The longer disruption persists, the greater the impact on energy prices, industrial activity, trade flows and global economic growth."The market is awaiting the start of the high-demand U.S. summer driving season, which begins with this weekend's Memorial Day holiday. The start of the season comes as U.S. oil inventories continue to decline, with the Energy Information Administration reporting U.S. commercial oil inventories fell 7.9-million barrels last week, well above consensus estimate for a drop of 2.9-million barrels among analysts polled by Reuters.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$5.89, or 5.7%; Settles at US$98.26 per Barrel

Oil Prices Fall Despite U.S. Threats to Resume Attacks on Iran

Oil prices eased early on Wednesday even as U.S. President Trump again threatened fresh attacks on Iran, while Iran threatened strikes outside the Persian Gulf region should the United States resume attacks.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down US$0.89 to US$107.77 per barrel, while July Brent oil was down US$2.25 to US$109.03.The Guardian reported Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened to extend the war beyond the Persian Gulf region if the United States resumes strikes against the country after Trump on Tuesday promised a fresh wave of attacks if Iran does not agree to a peace deal.The war has blocked the Strait of Hormuz since it began on Feb. 28, keeping the 20% of daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations mostly off the market and producing the world's largest-ever supply shock. Though the closure of the Strait has already pushed oil prices up by more than half, analytics firm Woods Mackenzie said if the war is extended until the end of the year, oil prices could rise as high as US$200 per barrel, though a quick settlement could lower Brent prices to US$80 by year end."The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical chokepoint in global energy markets, and a prolonged closure would become far more than an energy crisis," said Peter Martin, head of economics at Wood Mackenzie. "The longer disruption persists, the greater the impact on energy prices, industrial activity, trade flows and global economic growth."The market is awaiting the start of the high-demand U.S. summer driving season, which begins with this weekend's Memorial Day holiday. The start of the season comes as U.S. oil inventories continue to decline, with the American Petroleum Institute's weekly survey showing stocks fell by 9.1-million barrels last week, well ahead of the consensus estimate for a drop of 3.4-million barrels. The Energy Information Administration will release official inventory data later on Wednesday morning.

NY Crude Down 1.9% at US$102.15 and Brent Crude Down 2% at Near US$109

Brent Crude Down Near 1.7% at Near US$102.40

Update: WTI Falls as Trump Extends U.S. Ceasefire on Iran

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil eased om Tuesday after the United States extended a ceasefire with Iran, in favor of continuing peace talks with the country.WTI oil for June delivery closed down US$0.89 to settle at US$107.77, falling off the highest since April 7. July Brent oil was last seen down $1.70 to US$110.40.The Wall Street Journal cited U.S. President Trump saying the U.S. agreed to hold off fresh attacks on Iran at the request of Persian Gulf nations and will continue to look for negotiations to end the war that has blocked 20% of daily oil demand shipped through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz."The President, at the request of several Gulf states, suspended a planned Tuesday attack, allowing what he described as "serious negotiations" to continue. No ships have reportedly left Iran's main export terminal during the past 10 days, potentially increasing the prospects for a deal. Overall, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains only a fraction of pre-war levels, despite the waterway accounting for roughly one-fifth of global oil supply," Saxo Bank noted.Oil has gained 62% since Feb. 28, when the U.S, and Israel launched their war on Iran, which responded by blocking the Strait, shutting off exports of oil and raising refined-product prices ahead next weekend's Memorial Day holiday in the United States, which launches the high-demand summer driving season."The likely path forward this summer is a steady draw down in jet fuel, diesel and gasoline," Bjarne Schieldrop, chief analyst commodities at SEB Research, wrote.