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Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Gain Late Afternoon

Consumer stocks rose late Thursday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) rising 1.7% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) adding 1.5%.In corporate news, O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) shares gained 7.2% on Thursday, a day after it reported higher-than-expected Q1 results.Lamb Weston (LW) shareholder Starboard Value said in a letter to the board that the company should hold an investor day and reset earnings to a normalized level. Lamb Weston shares rose 1.6%.Wayfair (W) shares slumped 12% after the company reported Q1 adjusted earnings that missed Wall Street estimates, while net revenue topped expectations.Ford Motor (F) is in early discussions with the US government on potential defense projects, CEO Jim Farley said on the company's earnings call. Ford shares were down 1.5%.

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Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Rise in Afternoon Trading

Consumer stocks gained Thursday afternoon with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) rising 1.4% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) increasing 0.4%.In corporate news, Lamb Weston (LW) shareholder Starboard Value said in a letter to the board that the company should hold an investor day and reset earnings to a normalized level. Lamb Weston shares rose 1.8%.Wayfair (W) shares slumped 11% after the company reported Q1 adjusted earnings that missed Wall Street estimates, while net revenue topped expectations.Ford Motor (F) is in early discussions with the US government on potential defense projects, CEO Jim Farley said on the company's earnings call. Ford shares fell 2.3%.

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Research

Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold Opinion On Shares Of Ford Motor Company

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We raise our 12-month target by $1 to $13, based on a 2027 P/E of 6.8x, a discount to F's five-year average forward P/E of 8.0x. We raise our adjusted EPS estimates to $1.80 from $1.42 for 2026 and to $1.90 from $1.75 for 2027. Following Ford's Q1 earnings release, we are raising our estimates, but maintaining a Hold rating on the shares. Ford's Q1 earnings were well ahead of consensus, but the beat was largely led by a $1.3B one-time IEEPA tariff refund benefit reflecting amounts paid between March 2025 and February 2026. Candidly, given the strength of Q1 results, we think the company's 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance should have been increased by more than $0.5B. A closer examination of the outlook indicated ~$2B of expected commodity cost inflation, offset by material cost and warranty reductions of $1B. As a result, our estimates for the balance of the year have been lowered. Furthermore, management's track record of execution has been inconsistent and we recommend remaining on the sidelines.

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Research

Research Alert: F: Q1 Well Ahead Of Expectations, But Revised Guidance Raises Questions

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:Ford (F) posted Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.66 vs. $0.14, well ahead of the $0.19 consensus. The beat was driven by stronger-than-expected sales and margins, as automotive revenue rose 6.4% to $39.82B ($1.0B ahead of consensus) and adjusted EBIT margin expanded 560 bps to 8.1%. Results included a $1.3B one-time IEEPA tariff benefit reflecting amounts paid between March 2025 and February 2026. Ford raised full-year adjusted EBIT guidance to $8.5B-$10.5B from $8.0B-$10.0B, the midpoint of which is well above the $8.87B consensus. Ford's guidance for 2026 adjusted FCF and capex was unchanged at $5B-$6B and $9.5B-$10.5B, respectively. Shares initially surged higher on the beat and increased guidance in after-hours trading, but quickly gave back the gains, as the release begged the question of why Ford didn't raise full-year earnings guidance by an even greater amount in light of the $1.3B IEEPA tariff benefit. It appears to be mainly due to the company's expectation of a greater commodity cost headwind in 2026 (~$2B).

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Wire

Market Chatter: Ford, Geely Looked Into Expanding Partnership to US

Ford Motor (F) and Chinese automaker Geely, which are negotiating a tie-up in Europe, were in talks on the possibility of extending their collaboration to the US, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.The talks over Ford licensing Geely's technology in the US have stalled in recent months, the report said.Ford did not immediately respond to a request for comment from.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)Price: $12.36, Change: $-0.13, Percent Change: -1.00%

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Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Mixed Late Afternoon

Consumer stocks were mixed late Thursday afternoon with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) rising 0.4% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) falling 0.6%.In corporate news, Ford's (F) reorganization announced late Wednesday "makes sense," though the departure of Doug Field, the EV chief, risks unsettling investors, UBS Securities said. Ford shares dropped 1.8%.PepsiCo (PEP) reported higher-than-expected fiscal Q1 results amid affordability initiatives, while the company reiterated its full-year outlook. The shares rose 1.9%.Walmart (WMT) said it is making a "significant" investment across the US this year for remodels and opening new stores. Walmart shares were little changed.Tesla's (TSLA) Cybertruck sales were boosted by purchases from Elon Musk's other companies, Bloomberg reported, citing S&P Global Mobility registration data. Tesla shares declined 0.6%.

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Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer

Consumer stocks were mixed late Thursday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) up 0.5% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) down 0.6%.In corporate news, Ford's (F) reorganization announced late Wednesday "makes sense," though the departure of electric vehicle chief, Doug Field, risks unsettling investors, UBS Securities said in a note. Ford merged its electric vehicle, digital and design team with the global industrial system into a new organization, to be led by Chief Operating Officer Kumar Galhotra. As part of the reshuffle, Chief EV, Digital and Design Officer Field will leave the company. Ford shares were down 1.8%.

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Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Mixed Thursday Afternoon

Consumer stocks were mixed Thursday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) up 0.3% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) down 0.5%.In corporate news, PepsiCo (PEP) reported higher-than-expected fiscal Q1 results on Thursday amid affordability initiatives, while the company reiterated its full-year outlook. Shares rose 2.8%.Walmart (WMT) said Thursday it is making a "significant" investment across the US this year for remodels and opening new stores. Walmart shares added 0.3%.Sales of Tesla's (TSLA) Cybertruck were boosted by purchases from Elon Musk's other companies, Bloomberg reported, citing S&P Global Mobility registration data. Tesla declined 1%.General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) are among several companies that have held discussions with senior US defense officials about supporting increased weapons and military supplies production, the Wall Street Journal reported. GM shares were down 0.4%, and Ford fell 1.9%.

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US Markets

Ford's Restructuring 'Makes Sense,' EV Chief's Departure Risks Unsettling Investors, UBS Says

Ford Motor's (F) reorganization announced late Wednesday "makes sense," though the departure of electric vehicle chief, Doug Field, risks unsettling investors, UBS Securities said in a note emailed Thursday.The company merged its electric vehicle, digital and design team with the global industrial system into a new organization, to be led by Chief Operating Officer Kumar Galhotra. As part of the reshuffle, Chief EV, Digital and Design Officer Field will leave Ford."By uniting advanced technology with industrial execution, we can make decisions faster, eliminate complexity, and deliver great vehicles and digital experiences with the quality and efficiency our customers and shareholders expect," Galhotra said in a statement on Wednesday.UBS analysts, including Joseph Spak, said thinking about products holistically can create efficiencies."This type of reorganization makes sense," Spak wrote. "Better alignment, if achieved, could lead to more discipline and more on-time, on-budget launches."Ford said it plans to refresh 80% of its North American portfolio and 70% of its global portfolio by 2029.Field's departure may be viewed negatively as he was a key EV leader, UBS said. "This may cause investors to question upcoming (Universal Electric Vehicle) platform," Spak wrote.Ford's shares fell nearly 2% in Thursday trade.Alan Clarke became vice president of advanced development projects, and will continue to head the advanced EV development team, Ford said."We believe (Clarke) is well respected and liked so retention, talent and execution risk (from a reorganization) may be limited," Spak wrote.Price: $12.51, Change: $-0.20, Percent Change: -1.60%

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Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Rise Late Afternoon

Consumer stocks rose late Tuesday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) up 0.1% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) advancing 2.2%.In sector news, Redbook US same-store sales rose 7% from a year earlier in the week ended April 11 after a 7.6% year-over-year increase in the previous week.In corporate news, Ford (F) has a "credible" path to delivering 2027 EPS of above $2, with a march towards $3 beyond 2027, UBS Securities said in a note. UBS upgraded Ford to buy from neutral, with a $15 price target. Ford shares climbed up 4.7%.Walt Disney (DIS) will eliminate around 1,000 jobs, including positions in marketing, studio and television units, and certain corporate functions, Reuters reported. Disney shares rose 1.5%.FedEx (FDX) said its finance chief will step down in early June as the parcel delivery giant completes the spinoff of its freight business into a new publicly listed company. FedEx fell 0.8%.United Airlines (UAL) Chief Executive Scott Kirby proposed a potential combination with American Airlines (AAL) during a late February meeting with President Donald Trump, Reuters reported Monday. A consolidated carrier would be more competitive globally, aligning with the administration's focus on international trade deficits, the news outlet quoted Kirby as saying. United shares rose 2.3%, and American jumped past 8%.

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Wire

Ford's Potential Earnings Power Underappreciated, UBS Says

Ford Motor (F) has a "credible path" to delivering 2027 EPS of above $2, with a march towards $3 beyond 2027, UBS Securities said in a Tuesday note.The report pointed among others to its product portfolio, a more lenient US regulatory backdrop, and an emerging battery energy storage system opportunity.The note also said recent concerns over higher gasoline and aluminum prices are overdone as aluminum prices are hedged and not impacting 2026."The market is pricing in 2027 EPS of $1.73, ~16% below our forecast and under appreciating that transient headwinds dissipate in 2H26E and 2027E+ EPS power," the report said.UBS upgraded Ford to buy from neutral, with a $15 price target.Price: $12.65, Change: $+0.49, Percent Change: +4.03%

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Research

UBS Upgrades Ford Motor to Buy From Neutral, Price Target is $15

Ford Motor (F) has an average rating of hold and mean price target of $13.73, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)

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US Markets

Prolonged Iran War Could Drive Outlook Cuts at US Auto Companies in 2026 Second Half, RBC Says

US automotive companies could lower outlooks in the second half of this year in case of a prolonged Middle East conflict or if the latest oil price shock "adversely" affects consumer confidence, RBC Capital Markets said in a note e-mailed Monday.The US-Israel war with Iran that started at the end of February has sent energy prices surging amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important chokepoint for crude flows. Oil prices hovered around $100 a barrel intraday Monday as the start of a US blockade of maritime traffic around Iran's ports reportedly became effective.As most auto suppliers typically maintain one to two quarters of inventory, they are likely to be shielded from increasing raw materials costs in the near term, RBC analyst Tom Narayan said in a note to clients, adding that potential cost hikes in the future can be passed along to original equipment manufacturers. Overall, US suppliers have "negligible exposure" to the Middle East, according to the note."Importantly, we think neither OEMs nor suppliers (will) cut guidance in (the first quarter)," Narayan wrote. "That said, if the Iran conflict is prolonged or if higher oil prices adversely impact consumer confidence, we could see guidance cuts in (the second half of 2026)."Last week, a survey by the University of Michigan showed that US consumer sentiment hit the lowest on record this month, reflecting heightened worries about higher prices and the overall economic fallout from the Middle East conflict.Compared with suppliers, US OEMs could face "greater macro sensitivity," considering higher difficulty in passing along commodity inflation costs and a potential delay in the resolution to the US-Mexico-Canada trade pact due to the Iran war, RBC said."In China, the revised subsidy framework and reduction of the EV purchase tax credit could adversely impact mass-market players, where western suppliers remain structurally under-indexed," Narayan said.In the long term, RBC projects Brent crude prices to be around $80 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate oil seen at $75 a barrel, according to the note."While elevated fuel prices may support (electric vehicle) adoption in Europe, we expect limited mix shift in the US, where government incentives have been the primary demand driver for EV sales," Narayan said.RBC said it likes Autoliv (ALV), Dauch (DCH) and Aptiv (APTV) on a risk/reward basis. The brokerage reduced its price targets on the shares of several companies, including Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM), Tesla (TSLA), Mobileye Global (MBLY), and Lucid Group (LCID).Earlier this month, Tesla's first-quarter deliveries missed Wall Street's estimates, with Wedbush Securities flagging a challenging demand environment for the EV maker.Price: $12.11, Change: $-0.02, Percent Change: -0.16%

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