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Dollar Tree Raises Full-Year Earnings Outlook Following Fiscal First-Quarter Beat
US Markets

Dollar Tree Raises Full-Year Earnings Outlook Following Fiscal First-Quarter Beat

Dollar Tree (DLTR) raised its full-year earnings outlook on Thursday after the discount retailer reported fiscal first-quarter results above Wall Street's estimates.The company now expects adjusted earnings to be in a range of $6.70 to $7.10 per share for fiscal 2026, up from its previous outlook of $6.50 to $6.90. The current consensus on FactSet is for non-GAAP EPS of $6.67.The stock jumped 9.8% in the most recent premarket activity.Dollar Tree continues to project net sales from continuing operations at $20.5 billion to $20.7 billion for the ongoing fiscal year and comparable sales to grow by 3% to 4%. The Street is looking for same-store sales growth of 3.3%.Adjusted EPS for the three months ended May 2 advanced to $1.74 from $1.26 a year earlier and topped the average analyst estimate of $1.53. Overall revenue improved to $4.98 billion from $4.64 billion, ahead of the Street's view for $4.96 billion."Our first-quarter results reflect continued progress across the business and demonstrate the strength of Dollar Tree's position," Chief Executive Mike Creedon said in a statement. "We continued advancing our strategic plan - a more relevant assortment, agile cost management, a stronger customer connection, and new store growth coupled with improved store conditions - all driving operating margin expansion and delivering a strong bottom-line performance."Same-store net sales inclined 3.5%, while analysts expected a 3.3% rise at the enterprise level. The metric was buoyed by a 4.5% gain in average ticket.Traffic declined by 1%, but this represented a sequential improvement from the 120 basis-point decrease in the prior quarter, Truist Securities said in a client note.If traffic continues to improve sequentially, Dollar Tree shares could "re-rate significantly from current levels," according to Truist Managing Director Scot Ciccarelli.For the ongoing quarter, the company anticipates adjusted EPS of $1 to $1.15 on net sales of $4.8 billion to $4.9 billion. Analysts are looking for non-GAAP EPS of $0.99. Comparable store net sales are forecast to grow by 2.5% to 3.5%, while the market's current view is for a gain of 2.8%.

$DLTR
Research

Research Alert: Dltr: Apr-q Beat, Though Traffic Declined; Fy 27 Outlook Raised

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:Dollar Tree reported a solid Apr-Q beat with adj-EPS of $1.74 (+38% Y/Y) topping the $1.54 consensus, due to better-than-expected gross margin expansion of 130 bps to 36.9%. Revenue rose 7% to $4,976M, roughly $12M above consensus, with comparable sales up 3.5% versus the 3.3% consensus estimate. The multi-price rollout, now in ~5,900 stores after ~630 Q1 additions, continues lifting average basket (+4.5%) but appears to weigh on traffic, which fell 1.0% (negative for the third consecutive quarter). DLTR raised FY 27 adj-EPS guidance to $6.70-$7.10, up $0.20 at the midpoint, and Jul-Q EPS to $1.10-$1.15 vs. the $0.99 consensus. We view the guidance raise positively, particularly against weakening consumer sentiment and likely freight headwinds from rising diesel prices. However, we remain skeptical on growth sustainability given persistent traffic declines and questions surrounding the multi-price rollout's impact on the company's value proposition and long-term growth algorithm.

$DLTR
Stocks Fall Pre-Bell Amid Renewed US-Iran Tensions; Key Inflation, Economic Data on Deck
US Markets

Stocks Fall Pre-Bell Amid Renewed US-Iran Tensions; Key Inflation, Economic Data on Deck

The main US stock measures were trending lower in Thursday's premarket activity amid renewed tensions in the Middle East, while traders await key inflation and economic data.The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.1% each before the opening bell, while the Nasdaq was off 0.2%. The indexes finished Wednesday's trading session with fresh highs.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Thursday it targeted a US airbase, CNBC reported, citing Tehran's semi-official Tasnim news agency.The reported attack came after a US official told MS Now on Wednesday that US forces carried out strikes against a military site believed to threaten its troops and commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased 1.7% to $90.21 a barrel in premarket action, while Brent rose 1.6% to $95.81.President Donald Trump on Wednesday said that no single country will control the crucial Strait of Hormuz, according to Bloomberg News. "Nobody's going to control it, it's international waters," Trump reportedly said at the White House. "The strait's going to be open to everybody," and the US will "watch over it," he added.Earlier on Wednesday, Trump expressed confidence that the US would be able to reach a deal to end the conflict, but he is not yet satisfied with the terms, CNN reported. Iranian state TV previously claimed that a draft memorandum on ending the conflict calls for the US to withdraw its military forces and lift the naval blockade in return for reopening the Strait of Hormuz within a month. However, the White House dismissed it as a "complete fabrication," according to CNN.The personal income and outlays report for April is due to be released at 8:30 am ET. The report includes the personal consumption expenditure core price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric.Treasury yields were moving higher before the open, with the two-year rate gaining 2.7 basis points to 4.06% and the 10-year rate adding 1.2 basis points to 4.49%.Thursday's economic calendar also has the second estimate report of the first-quarter gross domestic product at 8:30 am, along with the weekly jobless claims bulletin and the durable goods orders report for last month. The new home sales report for April is out at 10 am, followed by the EIA domestic petroleum inventories report at 12 pm.New York Fed President John Williams is slated to speak at 8:55 am, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks at 10:15 am. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin's remarks are due at 3 pm.Shares of Snowflake (SNOW) jumped 38% pre-bell after the cloud-based data platform lifted its full-year product revenue outlook and agreed to a $6 billion infrastructure spending deal with Amazon's (AMZN) cloud platform. Salesforce (CRM) declined nearly 2% as the company issued a soft fiscal second-quarter outlook.Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Synopsys (SNPS) dropped 3.3% and 2.8%, respectively, following their latest quarterly results.Burlington Stores (BURL), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Li Auto (LI), XPeng (XPEV), Best Buy (BBY) and Hormel Foods (HRL) are expected to release their earnings before the bell, among others. Costco Wholesale (COST), Dell Technologies (DELL) and MongoDB (MDB) are scheduled to announce their results after the markets close.Gold fell 1.1% to $4,400 per troy ounce, while bitcoin slipped 2.2% to $73,258.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$BBY$BURL$COST$CRM$DELL$DLTR$HRL$LI$MDB$MRVL$SNOW$SNPS$XPEV
Dollar General, Dollar Tree Face Mounting Pressures Amid Macro Headwinds, Deutsche Bank Says
US Markets

Dollar General, Dollar Tree Face Mounting Pressures Amid Macro Headwinds, Deutsche Bank Says

Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) face growing challenges amid mounting energy costs and a tough pricing environment, Deutsche Bank said in a Wednesday note.Dollar Tree is scheduled to release its first-quarter results on Thursday, followed by Dollar General on June 2. Both discount retailers have lost more than 20% each in value so far this year."While it's been a rough few months for shares of (Dollar General) and (Dollar Tree), we are incrementally more cautious not only on the low-end consumer ... but also these models' ability to absorb/mitigate rising energy costs at a time consumers seek affordability," Deutsche Bank analyst Krisztina Katai said.Gasoline and crude oil prices have surged due to supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.Deutsche Bank downgraded its rating on Dollar General to hold from buy, and lowered the price target to $110 from $170.Shares of Dollar General "may be unable to outperform this year as numerous headwinds impact results," Katai said.The biggest challenge is for Dollar General to expand gross margin amid diesel cost pressures, at a time of "a sharp food retail pricing environment" led by major retailers Walmart (WMT), Kroger (KR), and Target (TGT), Katai said.Deutsche Bank reiterated its hold rating on Dollar Tree, with a price target of $99.While discretionary reads have been favorable, Dollar Tree is "at risk of losing share given value perception challenges with the rapid expansion of multi-price, and increased reliance on holidays/occasions to drive traffic/sales," Katai said. "Moreover, this plays out against a backdrop of rising costs."Price: $104.95, Change: $+1.34, Percent Change: +1.29%

$DG$DLTR$KR$TGT$WMT
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Mixed Late Afternoon

Consumer stocks were mixed late Tuesday afternoon with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) falling 1.3% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) gaining 0.3%.In sector news, US consumer confidence fell in May amid mounting inflation concerns as the Middle East conflict stretches into a third month, a survey by the Conference Board showed. The consumer confidence index eased to 93.1 this month from April's upwardly revised reading of 93.8. The consensus was for 92 in a Bloomberg survey.In corporate news, AutoZone (AZO) reported mixed fiscal Q3 results with earnings topping estimates and revenue falling short. The shares tumbled 9.2%.Starbucks' (SBUX) Korean unit has suffered a "very significant" drop in sales following a controversial marketing campaign, Reuters and other media outlets reported. Starbucks shares fell 1.8%.Dollar Tree (DLTR) may face a modest earnings reset as recent grocery price increases appear to be getting rolled back, while weak shopper response and softer store-level trends may weigh on results, Oppenheimer said. Dollar Tree shares dropped 1.5%.Spotify's (SPOT) co-CEO Alex Norstrom defended expansion into AI-generated music, the Financial Times reported. The shares rose 2.2%.

$AZO$DLTR$SBUX.SPOT
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Fall in Afternoon Trading

Consumer stocks were lower Tuesday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) falling 1.4% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) shedding 0.3%.In corporate news, AutoZone (AZO) reported mixed fiscal Q3 results with earnings topping estimates and revenue falling short. Its shares tumbled past 9%.Starbucks' (SBUX) Korean unit has suffered a "very significant" drop in sales following a controversial marketing campaign, Reuters and other media outlets reported. Starbucks shares fell 1.9%.Dollar Tree (DLTR) may face a modest earnings reset as recent grocery price increases appear to be getting rolled back, while weak shopper response and softer store-level trends may weigh on results, Oppenheimer said in a note Tuesday. Dollar Tree shares were down 2.8%.

$AZO$DLTR$SBUX
Wire

Dollar Tree Cuts Prices on Select Groceries After Weak Shopper Reaction, Oppenheimer Says

Dollar Tree (DLTR) may face a modest earnings reset as recent grocery price increases appear to be getting rolled back, while weak shopper response and softer store-level trends may weigh on results, Oppenheimer said in a note Tuesday.Weekend store checks showed new price cuts and temporary discounts on some grocery items, suggesting shoppers may not have responded to earlier price boosts as management expected, the report said. Some stores had updated signage, while others rang up lower prices even when shelf labels still showed higher ones, Oppenheimer said.Management may have raised prices too aggressively on certain items, though it's unclear whether the company is also passing tariff savings to customers, Oppenheimer said.Dollar Tree is set to hold a conference call Thursday after fiscal Q1 results, and Oppenheimer said it will look for more detail on how much of the food assortment is now priced at $1.50 and how customers are reacting.Oppenheimer maintained its perform rating on Dollar Tree stock and said that store conditions remain solid and merchandise selection continues to improve across most recent checks.Price: $92.73, Change: $-2.25, Percent Change: -2.37%

$DLTR
Wire

Dollar Tree Grapples With Volatile Trends, Cost Pressures, UBS Says

Dollar Tree (DLTR) is grappling with volatile trends as the retailer works to retain its appeal to budget-strained shoppers amid rising costs and mounting affordability pressures, UBS Securities said Thursday in a report.UBS said the market widely expects fiscal Q1 comparable sales at or below the bottom end of the company's 3% to 4% full-year comp outlook, making the current 3.6% consensus appear too optimistic.Dollar Tree will likely move its comparable-sales outlook to 1% to 3% for the year, which in turn would probably mean lowering its EPS forecast to $6.10 to $6.50 from the current $6.50 to $6.90 range, the report said.The company will also need to account for higher fuel and transportation costs alongside a softer sales outlook, UBS said. Q1 results are due Thursday.UBS lowered its price target on Dollar Tree stock to $132 from $138 and maintained its buy rating.Price: $94.71, Change: $-1.01, Percent Change: -1.05%

$DLTR
Dollar Tree Could Miss Quarterly Earnings Views, Cut Outlook Amid Oil Price Headwinds, Oppenheimer Says
US Markets

Dollar Tree Could Miss Quarterly Earnings Views, Cut Outlook Amid Oil Price Headwinds, Oppenheimer Says

Dollar Tree's (DLTR) fiscal first-quarter earnings could fall short of Wall Street's estimates amid potential oil price headwinds, which may prompt the discount retailer to cut its full-year outlook, Oppenheimer said Wednesday.The brokerage now expects the company to log earnings of $1.45 a share for the three-month period when it reports May 28, down from its prior outlook of $1.55, which is also the Street's view. In March, the company said it expected first-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.45 to $1.60."We have moved to the low end of the guidance range to reflect likely diesel headwinds and more conservative (comparable) assumptions given current consumer dynamics and recent pricing actions at the chain," Oppenheimer analysts, including Rupesh Parikh, said in a note to clients Wednesday.Investor sentiment surrounding the retailer has been "the most negative" in some time due to elevated diesel prices, the potential for continued traffic decreases and concerns regarding the low-income cohort, according to the brokerage. "We believe some of these fears are valid, especially on the cost and consumer fronts," the analysts said.Energy prices have surged in the aftermath of the US-Israel war with Iran that started at the end of February, with the crucial Strait of Hormuz effectively shut. A fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran still holds, with the two sides yet to agree on a framework for a permanent peace deal.Dollar Tree could lower its fiscal 2026 earnings projections to reflect the high oil prices, a "less robust" top-line outlook, and potentially less favorable mix, Oppenheimer said.In March, the company projected full-year adjusted EPS at $6.50 to $6.90, while the Street is currently looking for $6.70. Since that time, diesel costs have moved up by about $0.50, according to Oppenheimer.When oil prices surged in 2022 in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the retailer's management quantified a $63 million annualized impact for every $1 change in diesel rate for the year, the brokerage said. At the time, the company saw impacts on traffic as customers made less trips at the gas stations.Dollar Tree shares were up 2% in Wednesday afternoon trade. So far in 2026, the stock has lost 25% in value."Based on our review of historical valuation parameters and read of investor sentiment, we see limited downside risk on the print," Oppenheimer said.Price: $92.26, Change: $+1.65, Percent Change: +1.82%

$DLTR
Research

Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Sell Opinion On Shares Of Dollar Tree, Inc.

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We lower our 12-month target to $85 from $100, about 13x our FY 27 (Jan.) EPS of $6.49 (cut from $6.67 and below DLTR's guidance range of $6.50 to $6.90). We cut our FY 28 EPS to $7.09 from $7.23. This multiple is a notable discount to the company's long-term average forward P/E of 18x. We think a discount is warranted given risks associated with the company's multi-price rollout, which we believe introduces more competition and will make it difficult for DLTR to sustain traffic growth. We also note some one-time or transitory benefits to earnings growth in FY 27, including lower re-stickering costs associated with the multi-price rollout, along with higher TSA income from the divested Family Dollar business. Finally, freight costs, which served as a meaningful tailwind over the past year, are now reversing course. We expect rising freight to emerge as a more significant headwind as the fiscal year progresses, with potential downside implications for both margins and EPS.

$DLTR
Wire

Bernstein Adjusts Price Target on Dollar Tree to $117 From $124, Maintains Market Perform Rating

Dollar Tree (DLTR) has an average rating of hold and mean price target of $125.70, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $101.06, Change: $-1.19, Percent Change: -1.17%

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