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Research

Gordon Haskett Upgrades Dollar Tree to Hold From Reduce, Raises Price Target to $115 From $100

Dollar Tree (DLTR) has an average rating of hold and mean price target of $125.75, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)

$DLTR
Ollie's Bargain Lifts Full-Year Earnings Guide, Trims Revenue Outlook
US Markets

Ollie's Bargain Lifts Full-Year Earnings Guide, Trims Revenue Outlook

Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) raised its full-year earnings outlook on Wednesday, while the discount retailer trimmed its revenue expectations.The company raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings guidance to between $4.45 and $4.55 per share from $4.40 to $4.50 previously projected. Analysts polled by FactSet expect $4.44 per share.Ollie's revenue is pegged at $2.98 billion to $3 billion, compared with the prior outlook that called for $2.985 billion to $3.013 billion. Wall Street is modeling for $3 billion."We are cognizant of the state of the consumer right now," Chief Financial Officer Robert Helm said during an earnings call, according to a FactSet transcript. "They are prioritizing their spending around their needs and driving a little less if they can. Weather is still a bit of a lingering factor and we don't have the benefit of higher tax refunds to offset some of these pressures in the second quarter."Gasoline prices in the US have surged as the Iran war pushed crude oil costs higher due to the near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Dollar General (DG), Dollar Tree (DLTR), TJX (TJX) and Burlington Stores (BURL) recently raised their full-year earnings guidance.Shares of Ollie's rose 0.9% intraday Wednesday. The stock is down 27% so far this year.For the first quarter ended May 2, adjusted EPS rose to $0.91 from $0.75 a year earlier, ahead of the Street's $0.87 estimate. Sales jumped 14% to $658.9 million, but fell short of the FactSet consensus of $661.7 million.Comparable sales grew 1.7%, decelerating from the prior-year quarter's 2.6% rise but topping analysts' 1.6% growth view."Our comp target remains a positive 2% for the full fiscal year," Helm told analysts. "Our current trends are running below this level, primarily reflecting continued weather volatility and ongoing pressure on the lower income consumer."Wall Street expects Ollie's full-year comparable sales to increase 1.7%.Price: $79.44, Change: $+0.19, Percent Change: +0.24%

$BURL$DG$DLTR$OLLI$TJX
Wire

Dollar Tree's Strong Q1 Supports Achievability of 2026 Guidance, Morgan Stanley Says

Dollar Tree (DLTR) is "managing well" to achieve its fiscal 2026 guidance after a stronger-than-expected Q1, although rising costs and consumer spending pressures continue to limit upside potential, Morgan Stanley said in a note Friday.The investment bank said customer traffic appears to be "stabilizing" and could improve in H2, while Q1 gross margin expansion of about 125 basis points provides support for the company's full-year margin outlook.Outperformance in Q1 supports the "achievability" of Dollar Tree's fiscal 2026 targets of about 3.5% comparable sales growth, roughly flat gross margin, and earnings per share of about $6.90 at the midpoint, Morgan Stanley said.However, margin pressure is expected to increase later in the year as Dollar Tree laps "tariff-related pricing" benefits from the prior year and faces higher freight costs. Potential upside from traffic growth and tariff refunds could be offset by higher freight, wage and liability expenses, according to the note.Morgan Stanley has an equal-weight rating on Dollar Tree, with the price target raised to $130 from $126.Price: $113.61, Change: $+0.61, Percent Change: +0.54%

$DLTR
Research

Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Sell Opinion On Shares Of Dollar Tree, Inc.

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We lift our 12-month target to $98 from $85, about 14x (up from 13x) our FY 27 (Jan.) EPS of $7.03 (raised from $6.49; FY 28 raised to $8.00 from $7.09). This multiple remains below the company's long-term mean of 18x, which we believe is justified given negative traffic trends and risks associated with the multi-price rollout, as we believe higher price points will erode the brand and increase competition with larger retail peers. While DLTR posted solid Apr-Q results, we were surprised by the magnitude of the share price reaction, particularly as traffic remains down Y/Y alongside back-half risks from weak consumer sentiment and cost pressures (e.g., freight/fuel surcharges). The key test will come in 2H on whether DLTR returns to traffic growth. We remain skeptical on improving traffic trends absent significant reinvestment. We maintain our Sell rating.

$DLTR
Asia Markets

US Equity Indexes Rise as Iran Peace Deal Reportedly Awaits Trump's Signature, Core Inflation Eases Unexpectedly

US equity indexes rose as a deal to end the war against Iran was said to be awaiting President Donald Trump's signature and as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge unexpectedly eased in April.The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.9% to 26,917.47, the S&P 500 advanced 0.6% to 7,563.63, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up by less than 0.1% to 50,668.97 at the close on Thursday.A tentative agreement has been reached between the US and Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and start nuclear talks, according to US officials, CNN reported, adding that Trump has not signed off on it yet. Negotiators for the US and Iran agreed on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire, Axios reported, citing two US officials.Meanwhile, US Central Command confirmed that Iran fired a ballistic missile toward Kuwait overnight, which was intercepted, CNN reported. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps earlier said it launched an attack targeting an American air base, claiming it was the source of US strikes, according to the news report.Brent crude futures slipped 0.4% to $93.94. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 0.5% to $89.15.In precious metals, gold futures jumped 1% to $4,528.2, and silver futures climbed 1.3% to $75.90.The personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index slowed to 0.4% month-over-month from 0.7% in March, Bureau of Economic Analysis data showed. The Street expected 0.5% in a Bloomberg-compiled poll. The core PCE price index, which excludes the more volatile food and energy and is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, grew by 0.2% versus March's 0.3%, also the consensus for April.Annually, the PCE index jumped 3.8% in April, the largest increase since May 2023, up from 3.5% in March but in line with market expectations. Core PCE climbed to 3.3%, as expected, from 3.2% in March.Most US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 2.8 basis points to 4.45%. The two-year declined one basis point to 4.02%.US economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product, rose by 1.6% in Q1, revised lower from a 2.0% increase in the advance estimate. No revision was expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. GDP rose by 0.5% in Q4.New orders for US durable goods rose by 7.9% in April following a 1.3% increase in March, beating the 4.0% gain forecast in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. Excluding a 21.5% surge in transportation orders, new orders would have been up 1.1% in April after a 1.1% increase in March. Expectations were for a 0.5% gain.In company news, Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares soared 18%, the biggest gainer on the S&P 500, after the company posted higher fiscal Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue, and raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance.The worst performer on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq was Synopsys (SNPS), down 8.6%, after the company reported a decline in fiscal Q2 non-GAAP earnings.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$DLTR$SNPS
US Equities Extend Record Run Following Iran Deal Report
US Markets

US Equities Extend Record Run Following Iran Deal Report

Wall Street's equity benchmarks extended their record advance following a report that the US and Iran have reached a tentative peace agreement, while traders parsed fresh macro data.The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9% to 26,917.5, while the S&P 500 added 0.6% to 7,563.6, both closing at record highs for a third day in a row. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1% to 50,669, notching back-to-back record finish.Six of the 11 sectors ended in the red, led by utilities, while healthcare paced the gainers.The US and Iran have agreed to a memorandum of understanding to extend a ceasefire between the countries and begin talks on Tehran's nuclear program, Axios reported, citing sources. However, US President Donald Trump is yet to sign off on the deal, according to the report.Iran fired a ballistic missile toward Kuwait overnight, which was intercepted by Kuwaiti forces, US Central Command said on X.West Texas Intermediate crude oil was up 0.7% at $89.31 in Thursday late-afternoon trade, while Brent fell 0.3% to $94.03.In economic news, annual inflation hit the highest reading in almost three years in April even as consumer spending moderated in the face of high gasoline prices in the US, official data showed.Personal consumption expenditures data underscore the Federal Open Market Committee's "concern of elevated cost pressures permeating throughout the economy," Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said in a report e-mailed to.The US economy expanded at a slower rate in the first quarter than previously estimated as consumer spending growth decelerated, the Bureau of Economic Analysis' second estimate showed"The downward revisions to consumer spending in (the first quarter) and the slowdown in April point to a consumer coming under stress, but not one that is about to buckle," Michael Pearce, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, said in remarks e-mailed to.Federal Reserve officials flagged the possibility of higher interest rates if the Middle East conflict dragged on and kept inflation above the 2% goal, according to minutes from the central bank's April meeting released last week.Markets widely expect the FOMC to keep interest rates unchanged at its next policy meeting in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Although artificial intelligence has the potential to be a "transformative technology," the risks of a miscalculation regarding its impact on inflation and productivity are "too great," St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said."If the evidence becomes clear that higher productivity growth is likely to ease inflation pressures, I'm prepared to adjust my policy views," Musalem said. "However, at present, I believe we should keep our guard up against persistent above-target inflation today, rather than base monetary policy on the hope that we will have higher productivity growth tomorrow."US Treasury yields were lower, with the 10-year rate down 3.2 basis points at 4.46% and the two-year rate falling close to one basis point to 4.03%.In company news, Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares jumped nearly 18%, the best performer on the S&P 500, as the discount retailer raised its full-year earnings outlook after posting fiscal first-quarter results above Wall Street's estimates.Snowflake (SNOW) shares surged 36%. Late Wednesday, the cloud-based data platform raised its full-year product revenue outlook on the back of better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results. The company agreed to a $6 billion infrastructure spending deal with Amazon's (AMZN) cloud platform.Burlington Stores (BURL) increased its full-year outlook Thursday, while the off-price retailer's guidance for the ongoing quarter indicated a sequential slowdown in comparable sales growth. The company's shares slumped 7.9%.Gold was last up 1.9% at $4,530.70 per troy ounce, while silver advanced 1.3% to $75.87 per ounce.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$BURL$DLTR$SNOW
Japan

US Equity Markets Close Higher on Optimism Over Pending US-Iran Deal

US equity indexes closed higher Thursday amid speculation a US-Iran agreement was in the final approval stages.* Negotiators for the US and Iran reached an agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and begin talks on Iran's nuclear program, though President Donald Trump has not yet given final approval, Axios reported, citing two US officials.* The personal consumption expenditures price index slowed to 0.4% in April from 0.7% in March, Bureau of Economic Analysis data showed. Annually, the gauge rose 3.8%, the largest increase since May 2023, up from 3.5% in March and in line with market expectations.* US economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product, rose by 1.6% in Q1, revised down from a 2% increase in the advance estimate. No revision was expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.* July West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose $0.68 to settle at $89.36 per barrel, while July Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last seen down $0.21 at $94.08.* Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares jumped 18%, the top gainer on the S&P 500, after the discount retailer raised its full-year earnings outlook following better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results.* Synopsys (SNPS) shares fell 8.6%, the biggest drop on the S&P, a day after the company reported a decline in fiscal Q2 non-GAAP earnings.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$DLTR$SNPS
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Mixed Late Afternoon

Consumer stocks were mixed late Thursday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) fractionally lower and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) adding 0.5%.In corporate news, Burlington Stores (BURL) increased its full-year outlook Thursday, but its guidance for the ongoing quarter indicated a sequential slowdown in comparable sales growth. Its shares fell 9%.Caesars Entertainment (CZR) has agreed to be acquired and taken private by Fertitta Entertainment in an all-cash deal worth roughly $17.6 billion, the companies said in separate statements Thursday. Caesars shares were up 1%.Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares jumped past 17% after it posted higher fiscal Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue, and raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance.Best Buy (BBY) shares climbed 16% after it reported higher-than-expected fiscal Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue.

$BBY$BURL$CZR$DLTR
Wire

Dollar Tree Traffic Trends Ease Bear Concerns, Truist Says

Dollar Tree (DLTR) Q1 results reinforced confidence that improving traffic trends and margin gains could support further upside in the shares, Truist Securities said in a note on Thursday.The brokerage said the results eased one of the market's biggest concerns around the retailer, adding that "the entire crux of the bear argument on the stock" has been centered on deteriorating customer visits.Looking ahead, Truist said continued improvement in traffic despite higher ticket growth could help Dollar Tree shares "re-rate significantly from current levels," as investors gain confidence in merchandise improvements and store execution.Truist maintained its buy rating and $107 price target.Price: $111.18, Change: $+15.31, Percent Change: +15.97%

$DLTR
Equity Markets Rise Intraday Amid US-Iran Deal Report
US Markets

Equity Markets Rise Intraday Amid US-Iran Deal Report

US benchmark equity indexes were higher intraday as traders parsed a report that Washington and Iran have reached a tentative peace agreement.The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.7% at 26,862 after midday Thursday, while the S&P 500 rose 0.5% to 7,560.5. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.1% to 50,693.5. The indexes closed at new all-time highs in the previous session.Among sectors, healthcare and technology paced the gainers intraday Thursday, while financials saw the biggest decrease.The US and Iran have agreed to a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and begin talks on Tehran's nuclear program, Axios reported, citing sources. However, US President Donald Trump has yet to sign off on the deal, according to the report.Iran fired a ballistic missile toward Kuwait overnight, which was intercepted by Kuwaiti forces, US Central Command said on X.West Texas Intermediate crude oil was up 0.1% at $88.75 a barrel intraday, while Brent fell 0.7% to $93.60.In economic news, annual inflation hit the highest reading in almost three years in April even as consumer spending moderated in the face of high gasoline prices in the US, official data showed."If elevated inflation continues, we can expect slower trend real consumer spending ahead," BMO said in a note.Although artificial intelligence has the potential to be a "transformative technology," the risks of a miscalculation regarding its impact on inflation and productivity are "too great," St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said."If the evidence becomes clear that higher productivity growth is likely to ease inflation pressures, I'm prepared to adjust my policy views," Musalem said. "However, at present, I believe we should keep our guard up against persistent above-target inflation today, rather than base monetary policy on the hope that we will have higher productivity growth tomorrow."US Treasury yields were lower intraday, with the 10-year rate down 3.2 basis points at 4.45% and the two-year rate falling 1.9 basis points to 4.01%.In company news, Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares jumped nearly 18%, the second-top gainer on the S&P 500, as the discount retailer raised its full-year earnings outlook after posting fiscal first-quarter results above Wall Street's estimates.Snowflake (SNOW) shares surged 37%. Late Wednesday, the cloud-based data platform raised its full-year product revenue outlook on the back of better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results. The company agreed to a $6 billion infrastructure spending deal with Amazon's (AMZN) cloud platform.Burlington Stores (BURL) increased its full-year outlook Thursday, while the off-price retailer's guidance for the ongoing quarter indicated a sequential slowdown in comparable sales growth. The company's shares were down 8.3% intraday.Dell Technologies (DELL), Costco Wholesale (COST), and MongoDB (MDB) are scheduled to report financials after the closing bell Thursday, along with others.Gold was up 1.3% at $4,538.60 per troy ounce, while silver advanced 1.6% $76.08 per ounce.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$BURL$COST$DELL$DLTR$MDB$SNOW
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Edge Higher Thursday Afternoon

Consumer stocks edged up Thursday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) fractionally higher and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) increasing 0.1%.In corporate news, Caesars Entertainment (CZR) has agreed to be acquired and taken private by Fertitta Entertainment in an all-cash deal worth roughly $17.6 billion, the companies said in separate statements Thursday. Caesars shares were up 0.9%.Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares jumped past 18% after it posted higher fiscal Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue, and raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance.Best Buy (BBY) shares climbed almost 18% after it reported higher-than-expected fiscal Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue.

$BBY$CZR$DLTR
Asia Markets

US Equity Indexes Rise Amid Rumors of Iran Peace Deal, Surprise Easing in Fed's Preferred Inflation Measure

US equity indexes rose amid speculation of an agreement over a path to end the war against Iran and as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation rate unexpectedly eased in April.The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.8% to 26,880.1, the S&P 500 advanced 0.6% to 7,562.2, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up by less than 0.1% to 50,678.5 after midday on Thursday.Healthcare and technology led the gainers intraday. Financials, utilities, and consumer staples were among the decliners.Negotiators for the US and Iran reached an agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and begin talks on Iran's nuclear program, but President Donald Trump has not yet given final approval, Axios reported Thursday, citing two US officials. The White House didn't immediately reply to a request for comment.Brent crude futures fell 0.6% to $93.70. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 0.2% to $88.86, off session highs of more than 1% gain.In precious metals, gold futures jumped 1.1% to $4,532.3, and silver futures climbed 1.4% to $75.91.Most US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 2.8 basis points to 4.46%. The two-year declined 1.5 basis points to 4.02%.On a month-on-month basis, the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index slowed to 0.4% from 0.7% in March, Bureau of Economic Analysis data showed Thursday. The Street expected 0.5% in a Bloomberg-compiled poll. The core PCE price index, which excludes the more volatile food and energy and is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, grew by 0.2% versus March's 0.3%, also the consensus for April.Annually, the PCE index jumped 3.8% in April, the largest increase since May 2023, up from 3.5% in March but in line with market expectations. Core PCE climbed to 3.3%, as expected, from the 3.2% in March.US economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product, rose by 1.6% in Q1, revised lower from a 2.0% increase in the advance estimate. No revision was expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. GDP rose by 0.5% in Q4.New orders for US durable goods rose by 7.9% in April following a 1.3% increase in March, beating the 4.0% gain forecast in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. Excluding a 21.5% surge in transportation orders, new orders would have been up 1.1% in April after a 1.1% increase in March. Expectations were for a 0.5% gain.In company news, Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares soared 18%, the second-biggest gainer on the S&P 500, after the company posted higher fiscal Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue, and raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance.The worst performer on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq was Synopsys (SNPS), down 8.4%, after the company reported a decline in fiscal Q2 non-GAAP earnings.Best Buy (BBY) shares catapulted 18%, the top performer on the S&P 500, after the firm reported higher-than-expected fiscal Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$BBY$DLTR$SNPS
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Mixed Pre-Bell Thursday

Consumer stocks were mixed pre-bell Thursday, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) up 0.6% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) 0.1% lower.Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares were up more than 18% after the company posted higher fiscal Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue, and raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance.Best Buy (BBY) stock was up more than 9% after the company reported higher fiscal Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue.JD.com (JD) is under an in-depth investigation by the European Commission over its proposed acquisition of Ceconomy due to concerns that foreign subsidies may have distorted the deal process, the agency said. JD.com shares were down more than 2% premarket.

$BBY$DLTR$JD$XLP$XLY
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer

Consumer stocks were mixed pre-bell Thursday, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) up 0.5% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) down 0.3%.Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares were up more than 19% after the company posted higher fiscal Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue, and raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance.

$DLTR
Dollar Tree Raises Full-Year Earnings Outlook Following Fiscal First-Quarter Beat
US Markets

Dollar Tree Raises Full-Year Earnings Outlook Following Fiscal First-Quarter Beat

Dollar Tree (DLTR) raised its full-year earnings outlook on Thursday after the discount retailer reported fiscal first-quarter results above Wall Street's estimates.The company now expects adjusted earnings to be in a range of $6.70 to $7.10 per share for fiscal 2026, up from its previous outlook of $6.50 to $6.90. The current consensus on FactSet is for non-GAAP EPS of $6.67.The stock jumped 9.8% in the most recent premarket activity.Dollar Tree continues to project net sales from continuing operations at $20.5 billion to $20.7 billion for the ongoing fiscal year and comparable sales to grow by 3% to 4%. The Street is looking for same-store sales growth of 3.3%.Adjusted EPS for the three months ended May 2 advanced to $1.74 from $1.26 a year earlier and topped the average analyst estimate of $1.53. Overall revenue improved to $4.98 billion from $4.64 billion, ahead of the Street's view for $4.96 billion."Our first-quarter results reflect continued progress across the business and demonstrate the strength of Dollar Tree's position," Chief Executive Mike Creedon said in a statement. "We continued advancing our strategic plan - a more relevant assortment, agile cost management, a stronger customer connection, and new store growth coupled with improved store conditions - all driving operating margin expansion and delivering a strong bottom-line performance."Same-store net sales inclined 3.5%, while analysts expected a 3.3% rise at the enterprise level. The metric was buoyed by a 4.5% gain in average ticket.Traffic declined by 1%, but this represented a sequential improvement from the 120 basis-point decrease in the prior quarter, Truist Securities said in a client note.If traffic continues to improve sequentially, Dollar Tree shares could "re-rate significantly from current levels," according to Truist Managing Director Scot Ciccarelli.For the ongoing quarter, the company anticipates adjusted EPS of $1 to $1.15 on net sales of $4.8 billion to $4.9 billion. Analysts are looking for non-GAAP EPS of $0.99. Comparable store net sales are forecast to grow by 2.5% to 3.5%, while the market's current view is for a gain of 2.8%.

$DLTR
Research

Research Alert: Dltr: Apr-q Beat, Though Traffic Declined; Fy 27 Outlook Raised

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:Dollar Tree reported a solid Apr-Q beat with adj-EPS of $1.74 (+38% Y/Y) topping the $1.54 consensus, due to better-than-expected gross margin expansion of 130 bps to 36.9%. Revenue rose 7% to $4,976M, roughly $12M above consensus, with comparable sales up 3.5% versus the 3.3% consensus estimate. The multi-price rollout, now in ~5,900 stores after ~630 Q1 additions, continues lifting average basket (+4.5%) but appears to weigh on traffic, which fell 1.0% (negative for the third consecutive quarter). DLTR raised FY 27 adj-EPS guidance to $6.70-$7.10, up $0.20 at the midpoint, and Jul-Q EPS to $1.10-$1.15 vs. the $0.99 consensus. We view the guidance raise positively, particularly against weakening consumer sentiment and likely freight headwinds from rising diesel prices. However, we remain skeptical on growth sustainability given persistent traffic declines and questions surrounding the multi-price rollout's impact on the company's value proposition and long-term growth algorithm.

$DLTR
Stocks Fall Pre-Bell Amid Renewed US-Iran Tensions; Key Inflation, Economic Data on Deck
US Markets

Stocks Fall Pre-Bell Amid Renewed US-Iran Tensions; Key Inflation, Economic Data on Deck

The main US stock measures were trending lower in Thursday's premarket activity amid renewed tensions in the Middle East, while traders await key inflation and economic data.The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.1% each before the opening bell, while the Nasdaq was off 0.2%. The indexes finished Wednesday's trading session with fresh highs.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Thursday it targeted a US airbase, CNBC reported, citing Tehran's semi-official Tasnim news agency.The reported attack came after a US official told MS Now on Wednesday that US forces carried out strikes against a military site believed to threaten its troops and commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased 1.7% to $90.21 a barrel in premarket action, while Brent rose 1.6% to $95.81.President Donald Trump on Wednesday said that no single country will control the crucial Strait of Hormuz, according to Bloomberg News. "Nobody's going to control it, it's international waters," Trump reportedly said at the White House. "The strait's going to be open to everybody," and the US will "watch over it," he added.Earlier on Wednesday, Trump expressed confidence that the US would be able to reach a deal to end the conflict, but he is not yet satisfied with the terms, CNN reported. Iranian state TV previously claimed that a draft memorandum on ending the conflict calls for the US to withdraw its military forces and lift the naval blockade in return for reopening the Strait of Hormuz within a month. However, the White House dismissed it as a "complete fabrication," according to CNN.The personal income and outlays report for April is due to be released at 8:30 am ET. The report includes the personal consumption expenditure core price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric.Treasury yields were moving higher before the open, with the two-year rate gaining 2.7 basis points to 4.06% and the 10-year rate adding 1.2 basis points to 4.49%.Thursday's economic calendar also has the second estimate report of the first-quarter gross domestic product at 8:30 am, along with the weekly jobless claims bulletin and the durable goods orders report for last month. The new home sales report for April is out at 10 am, followed by the EIA domestic petroleum inventories report at 12 pm.New York Fed President John Williams is slated to speak at 8:55 am, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks at 10:15 am. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin's remarks are due at 3 pm.Shares of Snowflake (SNOW) jumped 38% pre-bell after the cloud-based data platform lifted its full-year product revenue outlook and agreed to a $6 billion infrastructure spending deal with Amazon's (AMZN) cloud platform. Salesforce (CRM) declined nearly 2% as the company issued a soft fiscal second-quarter outlook.Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Synopsys (SNPS) dropped 3.3% and 2.8%, respectively, following their latest quarterly results.Burlington Stores (BURL), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Li Auto (LI), XPeng (XPEV), Best Buy (BBY) and Hormel Foods (HRL) are expected to release their earnings before the bell, among others. Costco Wholesale (COST), Dell Technologies (DELL) and MongoDB (MDB) are scheduled to announce their results after the markets close.Gold fell 1.1% to $4,400 per troy ounce, while bitcoin slipped 2.2% to $73,258.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$BBY$BURL$COST$CRM$DELL$DLTR$HRL$LI$MDB$MRVL$SNOW$SNPS$XPEV
Dollar General, Dollar Tree Face Mounting Pressures Amid Macro Headwinds, Deutsche Bank Says
US Markets

Dollar General, Dollar Tree Face Mounting Pressures Amid Macro Headwinds, Deutsche Bank Says

Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) face growing challenges amid mounting energy costs and a tough pricing environment, Deutsche Bank said in a Wednesday note.Dollar Tree is scheduled to release its first-quarter results on Thursday, followed by Dollar General on June 2. Both discount retailers have lost more than 20% each in value so far this year."While it's been a rough few months for shares of (Dollar General) and (Dollar Tree), we are incrementally more cautious not only on the low-end consumer ... but also these models' ability to absorb/mitigate rising energy costs at a time consumers seek affordability," Deutsche Bank analyst Krisztina Katai said.Gasoline and crude oil prices have surged due to supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.Deutsche Bank downgraded its rating on Dollar General to hold from buy, and lowered the price target to $110 from $170.Shares of Dollar General "may be unable to outperform this year as numerous headwinds impact results," Katai said.The biggest challenge is for Dollar General to expand gross margin amid diesel cost pressures, at a time of "a sharp food retail pricing environment" led by major retailers Walmart (WMT), Kroger (KR), and Target (TGT), Katai said.Deutsche Bank reiterated its hold rating on Dollar Tree, with a price target of $99.While discretionary reads have been favorable, Dollar Tree is "at risk of losing share given value perception challenges with the rapid expansion of multi-price, and increased reliance on holidays/occasions to drive traffic/sales," Katai said. "Moreover, this plays out against a backdrop of rising costs."Price: $104.95, Change: $+1.34, Percent Change: +1.29%

$DG$DLTR$KR$TGT$WMT
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Mixed Late Afternoon

Consumer stocks were mixed late Tuesday afternoon with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) falling 1.3% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) gaining 0.3%.In sector news, US consumer confidence fell in May amid mounting inflation concerns as the Middle East conflict stretches into a third month, a survey by the Conference Board showed. The consumer confidence index eased to 93.1 this month from April's upwardly revised reading of 93.8. The consensus was for 92 in a Bloomberg survey.In corporate news, AutoZone (AZO) reported mixed fiscal Q3 results with earnings topping estimates and revenue falling short. The shares tumbled 9.2%.Starbucks' (SBUX) Korean unit has suffered a "very significant" drop in sales following a controversial marketing campaign, Reuters and other media outlets reported. Starbucks shares fell 1.8%.Dollar Tree (DLTR) may face a modest earnings reset as recent grocery price increases appear to be getting rolled back, while weak shopper response and softer store-level trends may weigh on results, Oppenheimer said. Dollar Tree shares dropped 1.5%.Spotify's (SPOT) co-CEO Alex Norstrom defended expansion into AI-generated music, the Financial Times reported. The shares rose 2.2%.

$AZO$DLTR$SBUX.SPOT
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Fall in Afternoon Trading

Consumer stocks were lower Tuesday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) falling 1.4% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) shedding 0.3%.In corporate news, AutoZone (AZO) reported mixed fiscal Q3 results with earnings topping estimates and revenue falling short. Its shares tumbled past 9%.Starbucks' (SBUX) Korean unit has suffered a "very significant" drop in sales following a controversial marketing campaign, Reuters and other media outlets reported. Starbucks shares fell 1.9%.Dollar Tree (DLTR) may face a modest earnings reset as recent grocery price increases appear to be getting rolled back, while weak shopper response and softer store-level trends may weigh on results, Oppenheimer said in a note Tuesday. Dollar Tree shares were down 2.8%.

$AZO$DLTR$SBUX

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