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Research

Research Alert: Cme: Q1 Eps Miss Despite Record Results; Margin Expands To 72.8%

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:CME Group Inc. (CME) posted strong Q1 2026 results with adjusted EPS of $3.36 vs. $2.80 in the prior year, missing consensus by $0.01, while revenue of $1.88B grew 14% Y/Y but missed estimates by 1%. Despite the misses, this was a record quarter with revenue, market data, net income, and EPS all hitting record highs. We attribute the misses to lofty expectations rather than company weakness, as CME demonstrated exceptional operational performance. ADV surged 22% to a record 36.2M contracts with broad-based growth across all six asset classes, led by metals (+130% Y/Y) and energy (+37%). However, the rate per contract declined 5% to $0.652, pressuring profitability. Market data revenue accelerated 15% to a record $224M, continuing double-digit growth and providing valuable recurring revenue stability. We believe CME's extraordinary 72.8% operating margin (+170 bps Y/Y) reinforces the quality of its market infrastructure franchise while investing in strategic initiatives.

$CME
Commodities

Update: CFTC Reportedly Probes Oil Futures Trades Timed Ahead of Iran-Related Policy Moves

(Updates with comments from the White House, ICE and CME in paragraphs five to nine.)The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating a series of oil futures trades executed shortly before major US policy developments tied to President Donald Trump's handling of the Iran conflict, news outlets reported on Wednesday.The inquiry is reportedly examining trading activity in crude oil futures on exchanges operated by CME Group (CME) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), focusing on at least two instances on Mar. 23 and Apr. 7.Investigators have requested exchange records, including so-called "Tag 50" identifiers that can reveal the entities behind the trades, the reports said.The scrutiny follows concerns raised by market participants and at least two Democratic senators that the unusually well-timed trades may have generated significant profits and could indicate the use of non-public information.Responding to' query, Davis Ingle, White House spokesperson, said all federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines prohibiting the use of non-public information for financial benefit."However, any implication that administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting. The CFTC will always uphold its duty to monitor fraud, manipulation, and illicit activity daily," Ingle added.ICE declined to comment in response to' request.CME Group's spokesperson Anita Liskey told, "Nothing is more important than market integrity. At CME Group, we vigorously surveil our markets and work closely with the CFTC to oversee trading activity.""Importantly, any review of market behavior must include all venues, including prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi that list related products with little to no visibility," she said in an emailed response.The CFTC did not immediately respond to requests for comment.On Mar. 23, oil and stock futures worth billions of dollars were traded 15 minutes before Trump said previously threatened strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure would be delayed.Last week, investors placed roughly $950 million in bullish oil positions hours before the US and Iran announced a ceasefire, the reports said.The White House is reported to have previously cautioned staff against using sensitive government information for personal trading in futures markets during the ongoing Iran conflict.Last month, the CFTC's enforcement director said the agency was monitoring potential market misconduct and manipulation in energy markets and was aware of recent speculation about insider trading in CFTC-regulated products.Price: $163.49, Change: $-1.58, Percent Change: -0.96%

$CME$ICE
Commodities

Update: CFTC Reportedly Probes Oil Futures Trades Timed Ahead of Iran-Related Policy Moves

(Updates with comments from ICE and CME in the fifth, sixth and seventh paragraphs.)The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating a series of oil futures trades executed shortly before major US policy developments tied to President Donald Trump's handling of the Iran conflict, news outlets reported on Wednesday.The inquiry is reportedly examining trading activity in crude oil futures on exchanges operated by CME Group (CME) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), focusing on at least two instances on Mar. 23 and Apr. 7.Investigators have requested exchange records, including so-called "Tag 50" identifiers that can reveal the entities behind the trades, the reports said.The scrutiny follows concerns raised by market participants and at least two Democratic senators that the unusually well-timed trades may have generated significant profits and could indicate the use of non-public information.ICE declined to comment in response to' request.CME Group's spokesperson Anita Liskey told, "Nothing is more important than market integrity. At CME Group, we vigorously surveil our markets and work closely with the CFTC to oversee trading activity.""Importantly, any review of market behavior must include all venues, including prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi that list related products with little to no visibility," she said in an emailed response.The CFTC and the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.On Mar. 23, oil and stock futures worth billions of dollars were traded 15 minutes before Trump said previously threatened strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure would be delayed.Last week, investors placed roughly $950 million in bullish oil positions hours before the US and Iran announced a ceasefire, the reports said.The White House is reported to have previously cautioned staff against using sensitive government information for personal trading in futures markets during the ongoing Iran conflict.Last month, the CFTC's enforcement director said the agency was monitoring potential market misconduct and manipulation in energy markets and was aware of recent speculation about insider trading in CFTC-regulated products.Price: $164.13, Change: $-0.94, Percent Change: -0.57%

$CME$ICE
Commodities

CFTC Reportedly Probes Oil Futures Trades Timed Ahead of Iran-Related Policy Moves

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating a series of oil futures trades executed shortly before major US policy developments tied to President Donald Trump's handling of the Iran conflict, news outlets reported on Wednesday.The inquiry is reportedly examining trading activity in crude oil futures on exchanges operated by CME Group (CME) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), focusing on at least two instances on Mar. 23 and Apr. 7.Investigators have requested exchange records, including so-called "Tag 50" identifiers that can reveal the entities behind the trades, the reports said.The scrutiny follows concerns raised by market participants and at least two Democratic senators that the unusually well-timed trades may have generated significant profits and could indicate the use of non-public information.The CFTC, CME, ICE and the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment from.On Mar. 23, oil and stock futures worth billions of dollars were traded 15 minutes before Trump said previously threatened strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure would be delayed.Last week, investors placed roughly $950 million in bullish oil positions hours before the US and Iran announced a ceasefire, the reports said.The White House is reported to have previously cautioned staff against using sensitive government information for personal trading in futures markets during the ongoing Iran conflict.Last month, the CFTC's enforcement director said the agency was monitoring potential market misconduct and manipulation in energy markets and was aware of recent speculation about insider trading in CFTC-regulated products.

$CME$ICE

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