FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Market Chatter: $7 Billion Oil Bets Placed Ahead of Trump's Iran Announcements Spark Scrutiny

By

Oil market bets totaling as much as $7 billion were placed ahead of major Iran-related announcements by US President Donald Trump in March and April, a Reuters analysis of exchange data, published Thursday, showed, raising fresh scrutiny over possible insider trading.

The trades, spread across crude, diesel and gasoline futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), far exceed previously reported positions worth about $2.6 billion.

Reuters said it could not determine who placed the trades or whether they originated in the US or abroad.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating the activity, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters in April, but has not publicly confirmed a probe.

Separately, ABC News reported Thursday that the US Department of Justice is also investigating oil trades linked to the Iran conflict.

The trades involved short positions that profited from sharp declines in oil prices following Trump's announcements on Iran. Traders first identified unusual activity on March 23, minutes before Trump delayed and threatened attacks on Iranian power infrastructure, sending oil prices sharply lower.

Similar trading patterns appeared on April 7, before Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran; on April 17, before Iranian officials discussed reopening the Strait of Hormuz; and again on April 21, before Trump extended the ceasefire.

In response to' request for comment, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said, "All federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines that prohibit the use of nonpublic information for financial benefit."

He added that any implication that administration officials "are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting."

Reuters' expanded analysis found coordinated sell orders across Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures, as well as European diesel and US gasoline contracts, often executed within minutes of key announcements.

It found that on March 23 alone, traders sold roughly $2.2 billion in oil and fuel futures contracts shortly before Trump's announcement. Oil prices later fell by over 10%, while fuel prices dropped by about 12%.

Reuters cited information from Adi Imsirovic, a veteran oil trader and associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who said the trades appeared "well informed" and noted regulators could trace the activity through exchange data.

ICE, CME, the Justice Department, and the CFTC did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Related Articles

Commodities

Matador Resources Raises 2026 Oil Production Outlook After Higher Q1 Output

Matador Resources (MTDR) reported Q1 earnings Wednesday, showing net production volumes of 18.68 million barrels of oil equivalent, up from 17.88 mmboe a year earlier.The company produced 10.83 million barrels of oil for the quarter ended March 31, compared with 10.35 mmbbls in the corresponding quarter a year earlier.Natural gas production volumes increased to 47.2 billion cubic feet in Q1 from 45.1 Bcf a year earlier.Average daily total oil equivalent production reached 207,594 boe per day during the quarter ended March 31, up from 198,631 boe/d in the prior-year period.Daily production volumes for oil averaged 120,277 barrels per day, up from 115,030 b/d, while daily natural gas production volumes averaged 523.9 million cubic feet per day, up from 501.6 MMcf/d.Matador raised its full-year 2026 oil production guidance to 123,000 b/d to 125,000 b/d, up from the prior range of 122,000 b/d to 124,000 b/d.The company also revised its total oil equivalent production guidance to 210,500 boe/d to 216,000 boe/d, upwards from the prior outlook of 209,500 boe/d to 215,000 boe/d.The company expects 2026 drilling, completion and equipping capital expenditures of $1.35 billion to $1.44 billion.

$MTDR
Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Oversupply, Falling Crude Pressure Futures

US natural gas futures fell in after-hours trade on Wednesday on rising domestic supply, while broader energy markets tracked lower on reports that Iran is reviewing a US-backed peace proposal that could ease tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and restore shipping flows through the key chokepoint.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous benchmark both declined 2.37% to $2.722 per million British thermal units.LNG feedgas flows to US export terminals dropped 7.8% on the week to 17.7 billion cubic feet per day, the lowest level in more than three months due to seasonal maintenance, Barchart said, citing BNEF data.The LNG slowdown is leaving more gas in the domestic market and reinforcing concerns about inventory builds. Storage levels were already 7.7% above the five-year average as of April 24.On Thursday, the US Energy Information Administration is due to release the latest weekly inventory data. Gelber & Associates forecasts an 80 Bcf injection for the week ended May 1, compared with 104 Bcf a year ago and a five-year average of 77 Bcf."If the print lands near our view, the market will likely keep watching whether LNG feedgas recovers and whether late-May power burn can build a stronger floor," the firm said in a Wednesday note.It added that "a materially larger build would reinforce the idea that spring maintenance and mixed weather are still capping rallies, while a lighter number would make it easier for prices to hold support into the next round of heat revisions," the firm said.Meanwhile, US lower-48 dry gas production was 110.9 Bcf/d on Wednesday, up 5.5% over the year, BNEF data showed, while net Canadian imports remained light at 4.5 Bcf/d, according to Gelber & Associates.Lower-48 demand was 72.2 Bcf/d, up 9.5% from a year earlier, with residential and commercial demand at 17.2 Bcf/d providing the strongest support as late-season weather demand returned, Gelber & Associates said.Demand is expected to strengthen as the US National Weather Service on Wednesday issued another winter storm warning for large parts of the Rocky Mountain states, which got hit with an unusually late snowstorm on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Commodities

Weekly US Gasoline Pump Prices Jump 7.3%; Diesel Up 60% From Year-Ago Levels, AAA Says

US gasoline prices climbed sharply this week, with the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline rising to $4.536 per gallon on Wednesday, according to American Automobile Association data.That was up 30.7 cents, or 7.3%, from $4.229/gal a week earlier.Prices were also significantly higher than a year ago, when regular gasoline averaged $3.158/gal, marking an increase of 43.6% over the year.Despite the latest surge, prices remain below the all-time high of $5.016/gal recorded by AAA on June 14, 2022.Diesel prices also moved higher, with the national average reaching $5.674/gal, up from $5.464/gal a week earlier, an increase of 3.8%.Compared with a year ago, when diesel averaged $3.54/gal, prices are up 60.3%. AAA said the record high for diesel was $5.816/gal, set on June 19, 2022.