$CLM6

NY Crude Down 1.9% at US$102.15 and Brent Crude Down 2% at Near US$109

Brent Crude Down Near 1.7% at Near US$102.40

Update: WTI Falls as Trump Extends U.S. Ceasefire on Iran

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil eased om Tuesday after the United States extended a ceasefire with Iran, in favor of continuing peace talks with the country.WTI oil for June delivery closed down US$0.89 to settle at US$107.77, falling off the highest since April 7. July Brent oil was last seen down $1.70 to US$110.40.The Wall Street Journal cited U.S. President Trump saying the U.S. agreed to hold off fresh attacks on Iran at the request of Persian Gulf nations and will continue to look for negotiations to end the war that has blocked 20% of daily oil demand shipped through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz."The President, at the request of several Gulf states, suspended a planned Tuesday attack, allowing what he described as "serious negotiations" to continue. No ships have reportedly left Iran's main export terminal during the past 10 days, potentially increasing the prospects for a deal. Overall, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains only a fraction of pre-war levels, despite the waterway accounting for roughly one-fifth of global oil supply," Saxo Bank noted.Oil has gained 62% since Feb. 28, when the U.S, and Israel launched their war on Iran, which responded by blocking the Strait, shutting off exports of oil and raising refined-product prices ahead next weekend's Memorial Day holiday in the United States, which launches the high-demand summer driving season."The likely path forward this summer is a steady draw down in jet fuel, diesel and gasoline," Bjarne Schieldrop, chief analyst commodities at SEB Research, wrote.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$0.89; Settles at US$107.77 per Barrel

Oil Trading Lower as Trump Extends U.S. Ceasefire on Iran

Oil prices eased early Tuesday after the United States extended a ceasefire with Iran, in favor of continuing peace talks with the country.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery was last seen down $0.37 to US$108.29, falling off the highest since April 7. July Brent oil was last seen down $1.66 to US$110.44.The Wall Street Journal cited U.S. President Trump saying the U.S. agreed to hold off fresh attacks on Iran at the request of Persian Gulf nations and will continue to look for negotiations to end the war that has blocked 20% of daily oil demand shipped through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz."The President, at the request of several Gulf states, suspended a planned Tuesday attack, allowing what he described as "serious negotiations" to continue. No ships have reportedly left Iran's main export terminal during the past 10 days, potentially increasing the prospects for a deal. Overall, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains only a fraction of pre-war levels, despite the waterway accounting for roughly one-fifth of global oil supply," Saxo Bank noted.Oil has gained 62% since Feb. 28, when the U.S, and Israel launched their war on Iran, which responded by blocking the Strait, shutting off exports of oil and raising refined-product prices ahead next weekend's Memorial Day holiday in the United States, which launches the high-demand summer driving season."The likely path forward this summer is a steady draw down in jet fuel, diesel and gasoline," Bjarne Schieldrop, chief analyst commodities at SEB Research, wrote.

Brent Crude Down 2% at US#109.90 and NY Crude Down 1.05% at US$107.50

TSX Closer: Index Plunges On Concerns Around Elevated Oil Prices and Inflation, Overshadows Pipeline Agreement

The Toronto Stock Exchange closed sharply lower Friday as rising global bond yields sapped investor appetite for equities, with elevated oil prices reigniting concerns around the outlook for higher inflation and with that, overshadowing news of an energy agreement that could see pipeline construction start in oil-rich Alberta within about two years.The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 434.92 points, or 1.25%, to 33,833.25, with most sectors lower, led by Base Metals, down 5.5% as gold was lower, and Health Care, down 3.6%.Higher oil price have boosted the Energy sector, which gained 2% on a day when the big local news centered around the Canadian federal government's plans to greenlight Alberta oil pipeline construction in return for oil-sands producers moving ahead with a massive carbon-capture.With a green light from the federal government, Alberta hopes to begin construction on a new oil pipeline as early as fall 2027, with oil flowing by 2033-34,CTV National News reported, while noting there remains no clear private sector investor to pay for it.Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith met in Calgary Friday to sign an updated deal. It outlines that the federal government will work towards designating the pipeline a project of national interest by Oct. 1, with a date of Sept. 1, 2027, for potential construction approval.The deal also raises the effective carbon price for Alberta to $130-a-tonne by 2040, instead of 2030 as previously laid out in the memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by the pair in November. That deal originally laid out conditions for the new pipeline to the West Coast. Alberta estimates the new pricing will save the industry about $250 billion by 2050.Friday's see headline carbon-emission costs move from a current $95 per tonne to $115 in 2030, $130 by 2035 and $140 by 2040, Alberta's headline carbon price is currently set at $95-a-tonne.But today the impact of the higher oil price outside of Canada dictated how the trading day went.As the conflict in the Middle East is about to enter its twelfth week, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to shipping following the failure of a new round of negotiations between the United States and Iran, noted National Bank in its latest Monthly Economic Monitor. "If the crisis is not resolved, what looms is a multi-faceted supply shock that would put considerable pressure on supply chains, drive inflation upwards beyond the sectors most exposed to energy prices, and likely force several central banks to tighten monetary policy," it said."Of course," National Bank added, "such an outcome is not inevitable, as a negotiated agreement between the two warring parties remains a distinct possibility. Indeed, this is currently factored into our baseline scenario. It is important to note, however, that while a reopening of the strait would lead to better economic outcomes in many regions, it would not resolve all the issues. This is because it would likely take several weeks, or even several months, before maritime traffic could return to its pre-crisis level."National Bank said even if the political impasse were to be resolved relatively quickly, as it still anticipates, the world would not return to its previous growth trajectory. The resilience of the U.S. would likely be more than offset by the weakness of emerging markets in Asia and Europe, and this would result in growth of 3.0% this year and 3.3% next year, it added.Meanwhile, BMO Capital Markets Chief Economist Douglas Porter in his weekly 'Talking Points' note said Canada "has certainly not escaped the global bond sell-off", noting 30-year yields were above 4%. They touched that level on one day in late 2023, but haven't otherwise been there since 2010, he noted. Porter added the "important" five-year yield has jumped to 3.35%, its highest level in almost two years and is now up more than 65 bps since the start of the war. "That will put upward pressure on mortgage rates and further dampen a soggy housing market, thus tightening conditions notably without the Bank of Canada even lifting a finger."Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 4.2% on fading hopes the U.S. and Iran will reach a deal that will re-open the Strait of the Hormuz as this week's U.S.-China summit meeting ended with mixed messages on ending the war on Iran. WTI oil for June delivery closed up US$4.25 to settle at US$105.42 per barrel, while July Brent oil was up US$3.56 to US$109.28.But gold traded lower by midafternoon Friday as the dollar and yields climbed on concerns around inflation and concerns the rise in oil prices will force central banks to hike interest rates. Gold for June delivery was down $140.90 to US$4,544.40 per ounce.

Update: WTI Oil Rises on Fading Hopes for a Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose 4.2% on Friday on fading hopes for the United States and Iran will reach a deal that will re-open the Strait of the Hormuz as the U.S.-China summit meeting ended with mixed messages on ending the war on Iran.WTI oil for June delivery closed up US$4.25 to settle at US$105.42 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen up US$3.56 to US$109.28.A summit meeting between U.S. President Trump and Xi Jinping, Trump's Chinese counterpart, ended with mixed messages from Trump on the war on Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported. The paper said Trump told Fox News the United States does not need to see the Strait reopen, then told reporters both he and Xi want to see the Iran war come to an end, while also saying the Strait needs to to be open as soon a possible."Both sides aligned on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The US readout connected China's energy import needs to the energy disruptions due to the conflict in Iran. Even though the Chinese statement did not even mention energy, China's foreign minister before the start of the second day of the summit called for the reopening of the Strait. Indeed, weeks before the summit, President Xi had already called for a comprehensive ceasefire that would allow normal passage of vessels," Eugenia Victorino, Head of Asia Strategy at SEB Research, noted.Iran closed the Strait to most traffic at the Feb. 28 start to the war launched by the United States and Israel, stranding hundreds of ships in the Persian Gulf and blocking 20% of daily oil demand supplied by regional nations.The blockade of the Strait has pushed oil prices up by half since the start of the war, leaving Asian nations scrambling for physical supply and boosting inflation, raising concerns central banks will need to raise interest rates to cut demand.Hopes for further talks between Iran and the United States continue, with The Guardian reporting Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, said that U.S. contacted Iran "to say that they were seeking to continue talks, and that his country (is) prepared to pursue either a diplomatic or militaristic route in order to end the conflict".

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$4.25; Settles at US$105.42 per Barrel

Oil Prices Rise on Fading Hopes for a Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

Oil prices rose early on Friday on fading hopes for the United States and Iran will reach a deal that will re-open the Strait of the Hormuz as the U.S.-China summit meeting ended with mixed messages on ending the war on Iran.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery was last seen up US$3.48 to US$104.65 per barrel, while July Brent oil was up US$2.71 to US$108.43.A summit meeting between U.S. President Trump and Xi Jinping, Trump's Chinese counterpart, ended with mixed messages from Trump on the war on Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported. The paper said Trump told Fox News the United States does not need to see the Strait reopen, then told reporters both he and Xi want to see the Iran war come to an end, while also saying the Strait needs to to be open as soon a possible."Both sides aligned on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The US readout connected China's energy import needs to the energy disruptions due to the conflict in Iran. Even though the Chinese statement did not even mention energy, China's foreign minister before the start of the second day of the summit called for the reopening of the Strait. Indeed, weeks before the summit, President Xi had already called for a comprehensive ceasefire that would allow normal passage of vessels," Eugenia Victorino, Head of Asia Strategy at SEB Research, noted.Iran closed the Strait to most traffic at the Feb. 28 start to the war launched by the United States and Israel, stranding hundreds of ships in the Persian Gulf and blocking 20% of daily oil demand supplied by regional nations.The blockade of the Strait has pushed oil prices up by half since the start of the war, leaving Asian nations scrambling for physical supply and boosting inflation, raising concerns central banks will need to raise interest rates to cut demand.Hopes for further talks between Iran and the United States continue, with The Guardian reporting Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, said that U.S. contacted Iran "to say that they were seeking to continue talks, and that his country (is) prepared to pursue either a diplomatic or militaristic route in order to end the conflict".

NY Crude Up 3.4% at US$104.60 and Brent Crude Up 2.75% at Near US$108.60

Brent Crude Up 3.25% at Near US$109.20

Update: WTI Oil Edges Up Despite Reports Iran is Allowing Chinese Ships to Move Through the Strait of Hormuz

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil edged higher on Thursday despite reports Iran is allowing Chinese ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed up US$0.15 to settle at US$101.17 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen up US$0.10 to US$105.73.The rise follows a Reuters report, citing Iranian state media, that Iran is allowing Chinese ships to move through the blocked Strait of Hormuz, and have allowed 30 vessels to move through the Strait "in recent hours".Iran closed the Strait to most traffic at the Feb. 28 start to the war launched by the United States and Israel, stranding hundreds of ships in the Persian Gulf and blocking 20% of daily oil demand supplied by regional nations.The blockade of the Strait has pushed oil prices up by half since the start of the war. leaving Asian nations scrambling for physical supply and boosting inflation, raising concerns central banks will need to raise interest rates to cut demand. The United States this week reported wholesale and consumer prices surged last month, heightening concerns of higher rates, though the CME FedWatch Tool sees a 97.5% probability the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged during the June 17 meeting of its policy committee.Iran's control of the Strait is a key focus of the summit meeting underway between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump in Beijing. The Wall Street Journal reported the pair agreed the Strait should remain an international waterway and Iran should not be allowed to extract payments from ships passing through the Strait.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$0.15; Settles at US$101.17 per Barrel

Oil Trading Lower After Reports Iran is Allowing Chinese Ships to Move Through the Strait of Hormuz

Oil moved lower early on Thursday following reports Iran is allowing Chinese ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery was last seen down US$1.48 to US$99.54 per barrel, while July Brent oil was down US$1.68 to US$103.95.The drop followed a Reuters report, citing Iranian state media, that Iran is allowing Chinese ships to move through the blocked Strait of Hormuz, and have allowed 30 vessels to move through the Strait "in recent hours".Iran closed the Strait to most traffic at the Feb. 28 start to the war launched by the United States and Israel, stranding hundreds of ships in the Persian Gulf and blocking 20% of daily oil demand supply by regional nations.The blockade of the Strait has pushed oil prices up by half since the start of the war. leaving Asian nations scrambling for physical supply and boosting inflation, raising concerns central banks will need to raise interest rates to cut demand. The United States this week reported wholesale and consumer prices surged last month, heightening concerns of higher rates, though the CME FedWatch Tool sees a 97.5% probability the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged during the June 17 meeting of its policy committee.Iran's control of the Strait is a key focus of the summit meeting underway between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump in Beijing. The Wall Street Journal reported the pair agreed the Strait should remain an international waterway and Iran should not be allowed to extract payments from ships passing through the Strait.

Update: WTI Crude Oil Falls as the IEA Sees Global Inventories Dropping at a Record Pace

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower on Wednesday but stuck above US$100 as the loss of Persian Gulf supply since the start of the war on Iran cuts into stocks, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) reporting a a record draw down in inventories since the conflict began.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$1.02 to settle US$101.02 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$1.98 to US$105.79.Oil prices have climbed by more than half since the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran on Feb. 28. Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz, trapping in 20% of daily oil supply produced by Persian Gulf nations.In its closely watched monthly Oil Market Report, the IEA said the loss of Persian Gulf supply is depleting global inventories at a record pace."With Hormuz tanker traffic still restricted, cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers already exceed 1 billion barrels with more than 14 mb/d of oil now shut in, an unprecedented supply shock," the agency said.The IEA said the supply disruption and high prices will cut into demand, expecting a global demand drop of 420,000 barrels per day this year to 104-million bpd, down 1.3-million bpd from its pre-war forecast.Inventories fell by 129-million bpd in March and by 117-million bpd in April, though rising output from producers outside of the Gulf is helping to ease the supply shock."2026 supply growth expectations from the Americas have been revised up by more than 600 kb/d since the start of the year, to 1.5 mb/d on average. Moreover, Atlantic Basin crude oil exports, now heading primarily to hard-hit East of Suez markets, have increased by 3.5 mb/d since February, with notable gains from the United States, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Venezuela," the IEA noted.In its weekly survey, the Energy Information Administration reported U.S. commercial oil inventories fell by 4.3-million barrels last week, while the consensus estimate among analysts polled by Reuters expected a drop of 2.9-million barrels.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$1.16; Settles at US$101.02 per Barrel

Oil Edges Lower Early as the IEA Sees Global Inventories Dropping at a Record Pace

Oil prices edged lower early on Wednesday but are sticking above US$100 as the loss of Persian Gulf supply since the start of the war on Iran cuts into stocks, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) reporting a a record draw down in inventories since the conflict began.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery was last seen down US$0.37 to US$101.81 per barrel, while July Brent oil was down US$0.10 to US$107.67.Oil prices have climbed by more than half since the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran on Feb. 28. Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz, trapping in 20% of daily oil supply produced by Persian Gulf nations.In its closely watched monthly Oil Market Report, the IEA said the loss of Persian Gulf supply is depleting global inventories at a record pace."With Hormuz tanker traffic still restricted, cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers already exceed 1 billion barrels with more than 14 mb/d of oil now shut in, an unprecedented supply shock," the agency said.The IEA said the supply disruption and high prices will cut into demand, expecting a global demand drop of 420,000 barrels per day this year to 104 million bpd, down 1.3-million bpd from its pre-war forecast.Inventories fell by 129-million bpd in March and by 117-million bpd in April, though rising output from producers outside of the Gulf is helping to ease the supply shock."2026 supply growth expectations from the Americas have been revised up by more than 600 kb/d since the start of the year, to 1.5 mb/d on average. Moreover, Atlantic Basin crude oil exports, now heading primarily to hard-hit East of Suez markets, have increased by 3.5 mb/d since February, with notable gains from the United States, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Venezuela," the IEA noted.

Update: WTI Oil Rises Again as the Shaky U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Continues to Block Persian Gulf Supply

(Updates prices and adds detail from the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook in the final two paragraphs.)West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil oil closed higher a third session early on Tuesday as a faltering ceasefire between the United States and Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed, continuing the largest-ever energy supply shock.WTI oil for June delivery closed up US$4.11 to settle at US$102.18 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen up US$3.60 to US$107.81.The rise comes as a shaky ceasefire in the war on Iran threatens to end, with U.S. President Trump on Monday saying it was on "massive life support" after Iran rejected a U.S. peace plan and Trump rejected Iran's response.The lack of a deal continues Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, blocking exports from Persian Gulf nations that accounted for 20% of daily oil demand. Oil prices have climbed by nearly half since the Feb. 28 start to the war, with stalemate between the warring nations offering no quick relief to countries searching for alternative supply."Oil prices climbed ... as the global oil market continued to tighten amid limited prospects for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The move followed Trump casting doubt over a ceasefire with Israel signalling the war is not over," Saxo Bank wrote.In its influential monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday, the Energy Information Administration reported Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain have together shut in 10.5-million barrels per day of oil production due the the closure of the Strait, while global inventories fall amid the lack of supply."The Brent crude oil spot price increased sharply in April, reaching a high of $138 per barrel (b) on April 7 and averaging $117/b for the month, as the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz tightened global oil supplies. We expect global oil inventories will fall by an average of 8.5 million b/d in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), keeping Brent prices around $106/b in May and June. As oil production in the Middle East rises, we expect crude oil prices to fall, dropping to an average of $89/b in 4Q26 and $79/b in 2027," the agency said.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$4.11; Settles at US$102.18 per Barrel