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Update: WTI Oil Rises Again as the Shaky U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Continues to Block Persian Gulf Supply

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(Updates prices and adds detail from the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook in the final two paragraphs.)

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil oil closed higher a third session early on Tuesday as a faltering ceasefire between the United States and Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed, continuing the largest-ever energy supply shock.

WTI oil for June delivery closed up US$4.11 to settle at US$102.18 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen up US$3.60 to US$107.81.

The rise comes as a shaky ceasefire in the war on Iran threatens to end, with U.S. President Trump on Monday saying it was on "massive life support" after Iran rejected a U.S. peace plan and Trump rejected Iran's response.

The lack of a deal continues Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, blocking exports from Persian Gulf nations that accounted for 20% of daily oil demand. Oil prices have climbed by nearly half since the Feb. 28 start to the war, with stalemate between the warring nations offering no quick relief to countries searching for alternative supply.

"Oil prices climbed ... as the global oil market continued to tighten amid limited prospects for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The move followed Trump casting doubt over a ceasefire with Israel signalling the war is not over," Saxo Bank wrote.

In its influential monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday, the Energy Information Administration reported Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain have together shut in 10.5-million barrels per day of oil production due the the closure of the Strait, while global inventories fall amid the lack of supply.

"The Brent crude oil spot price increased sharply in April, reaching a high of $138 per barrel (b) on April 7 and averaging $117/b for the month, as the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz tightened global oil supplies. We expect global oil inventories will fall by an average of 8.5 million b/d in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), keeping Brent prices around $106/b in May and June. As oil production in the Middle East rises, we expect crude oil prices to fall, dropping to an average of $89/b in 4Q26 and $79/b in 2027," the agency said.

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