$CLM6

Oil Rises Again as the Shaky U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Continues to Block Persian Gulf Supply

Oil prices rose for a third session early on Tuesday as a faltering ceasefire between the United States and Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed, continuing the largest-ever energy supply shock.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery was last seen up US$3.23 to US$101.30 per barrel, while July Brent oil was up US$3.32 to US$107.53.The rise comes as a shaky ceasefire in the war on Iran threatens to end, with U.S. President Trump on Monday saying it was on "massive life support" after Iran rejected a U.S. peace plan and Trump rejected Iran's response.The lack of a deal continues Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, blocking exports from Persian Gulf nations that accounted for 20% of daily oil demand. Oil prices have climbed by nearly half since the Feb. 28 start to the war, with stalemate between the warring nations offering no quick relief to countries searching for alternative supply."Oil prices climbed ... as the global oil market continued to tighten amid limited prospects for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The move followed Trump casting doubt over a ceasefire with Israel signalling the war is not over," Saxo Bank wrote.Trump will travel to Beijing tomorrow for a summit meeting with Xi Jinping, his Chinese counterpart, a major buyer of Iranian oil and an ally of the country. However the Wall Street Journal reported Xi is unlikely to press Trump to end the war.

NY Crude Up 3.1% at US$101.10 and Brent Crude Up 2.9% at Near US$107.25

Brent Crude Up 2.8% at Near US$107.20

Update: WTI Oil Rises as the United States Rejects Iran's Response to Its Peace Proposal

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil rose on Monday after the United States rejected Iran's response to its peace proposal, calling it unacceptable, continuing the war that has produced the largest-ever energy supply shock.WTIcrude oil for June delivery closed up US$2.65 to settle at US$98.07 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen up US$3.47 to US$104.76.Iran replied to a U.S. peace offer last week with a plan of its own, delivering a response on Sunday that included demands for compensation for war damages, acknowledgement of its control of the Strait of Hormuz, an end to Israel's war on Lebanon and the removal of sanctions on it oil exports and nuclear enrichment program.Iran's demands were dismissed by U.S. President Trump. who called the demands "totally unacceptable" in a social media post.The war launched by the United States and Israel is now in its tenth week, leaving the Strait of Hormuz closed to tankers that delivered 20% of daily demand for oil, LNG and refined products. Iran's blockade of the Strait has forced Asian nations that rely on Persian Gulf imports to bid up spot prices for oil, caused shortages of aviation fuel and raised inflation as gasoline costs climb."The two sides continue to maintain a fragile ceasefire while the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz drags on. After briefly trading down to USD 96 last week on renewed hopes the strait would reopen, Brent has rebounded above USD 105. Morgan Stanley has described the situation as a "race against time," warning that recent mitigating factors - such as a surge in U.S. exports (+3.8 mb/d YoY over the past 30 days) and weaker Chinese imports (-5.5 mb/d) - cannot persist indefinitely. That increasingly leaves demand destruction through slower consumption growth and higher prices as the only viable mechanisms to rebalance the market," Saxo Bank wrote.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$2.65; Settles at US$98.07 per Barrel

Oil Rises as the United States Rejects Iran's Response to Its Peace Proposal

Oil prices rose early on Monday after the United States rejected Iran's response to its peace proposal, calling it unacceptable, continuing the war that has produced the largest-ever energy supply shock.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery was last seen up US$2.92 to US$98.34 per barrel, while July Brent oil was up US$2.93 to US$104.33.Iran replied to a U.S. peace offer last week with a plan of its own, delivering a response on Sunday that included demands for compensation for war damages, acknowledgement of its control of the Strait of Hormuz, an end to Israel's war on Lebanon and the removal of sanctions on it oil exports and nuclear enrichment program.Iran's demands were dismissed by U.S. President Trump. who called the demands "totally unacceptable" in a social media post.The war launched by the United States and Israel is now in its tenth week, leaving the Strait of Hormuz closed to tankers that delivered 20% of daily demand for oil, LNG and refined products. Iran's blockade of the Strait has forced Asian nations that rely on Persian Gulf imports to bid up spot prices for oil, caused shortages of aviation fuel and raised inflation as gasoline costs climb."The two sides continue to maintain a fragile ceasefire while the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz drags on. After briefly trading down to USD 96 last week on renewed hopes the strait would reopen, Brent has rebounded above USD 105. Morgan Stanley has described the situation as a "race against time," warning that recent mitigating factors - such as a surge in U.S. exports (+3.8 mb/d YoY over the past 30 days) and weaker Chinese imports (-5.5 mb/d) - cannot persist indefinitely. That increasingly leaves demand destruction through slower consumption growth and higher prices as the only viable mechanisms to rebalance the market," Saxo Bank wrote.

Brent Crude Up 2.2% at US$103.55 and NY Crude Up 2.2% at Near US$97.50

Brent Crude Up 0.55% at US$110.60 and NY Crude Up 0.3% at US$95.10

Update: WTI Falls Again on Hopes a Deal to End the Iran War is Near

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell for a third-straight session on Thursday but rose off the day's low on uncertain prospects for a potential peace deal between the United States and Iran.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$0.27 to settle at US$94.81 per barrel, after earlier touching US$89.85. July Brent oil was last seen down US$0.67 to US$100.60The drop, which follows on Wednesday's 7% fall for WTI prices, comes amid rising optimism the United States and Iran are closer to a peace deal. However the outlook for a deal is uncertain. The Guardian reported while U.S. President Trump is saying a deal is "very possible", Iranian media are reporting is only reviewing the proposal and considering its response.There is no certainty talks will result in a deal between the two countries that will see a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for exports from Persian Gulf nations that supplied 20% of the world's daily oil demand. More than 1,000 ships have been trapped in the Gulf since the Feb. 28 start to the war and supplies of oil, refined products, LNG, fertilizer and other commodities are running short."We should not be too optimistic about immediate agreement. A spokesperson for the Iranian finance ministry pushed back yesterday, calling parts of the US framework "ambitious and unrealistic proposals". So far, Tehran's wish list: set out in its 14-point response on May 2, is unchanged: full sanctions relief, release of frozen state assets, ~$270bn in reparations / reconstruction financing ("only way" to end the conflict), and a new multilateral mechanism for the SoH (Strait of Hormuz) that effectively recognizes Iranian sovereignty over it," Ole Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at SEB Research, wrote.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$0.27; Settles at US$94.81 per Barrel

Oil Prices Fall Again on Hopes a Deal to End the Iran War is Near

Oil prices fell again early on Thursday on rising hopes a potential peace deal between the United States and Iran will reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, ending the largest-ever oil supply shock.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for June delivery was last seen down US$3.06 to US$92.02 per barrel, while July Brent oil was down US$3.02 to US$98.25.The drop, which follows on Wednesday's 7% fall for WTI prices, comes amid rising optimism the United States and Iran are closer to a peace deal. The Wall Street Journal reported the two countries are working with mediators to come up with a framework to resume negotiations, with talks in Pakistan beginning as soon as next week on a 14-point memorandum of understanding (MoU) offered by the Trump Administration.There is no certainty talks will result in a deal between the two countries that will see a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for exports from Persian Gulf nations that supplied 20% of the world's daily oil demand. More than 1,000 ships have been trapped in the Gulf since the Feb. 28 start to the war and supplies of oil, refined products, LNG, fertilizer and other commodities are running short.The Guardian reported U.S. President Trump is signaling a deal is "very possible", even as Iranian officials called the MoU an "American wish list"."We should not be too optimistic about immediate agreement. A spokesperson for the Iranian finance ministry pushed back yesterday, calling parts of the US framework "ambitious and unrealistic proposals". So far, Tehran's wish list: set out in its 14-point response on May 2, is unchanged: full sanctions relief, release of frozen state assets, ~$270bn in reparations / reconstruction financing ("only way" to end the conflict), and a new multilateral mechanism for the SoH (Strait of Hormuz) that effectively recognizes Iranian sovereignty over it," Ole Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at SEB Research, wrote.

Brent Crude Down Near 2.2% at Just Over US$99, NY Crude Down 2.25% at Near US$92.90

Update: WTI Oil Plunges Following Reports the U.S. and Iran May Be Close to a Peace Deal

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil plunged 7% on Wednesday following reports the United States and Iran are close to an agreement to end their war, offering the possibility the Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$7.19 to settle at US$95.08 per barrel after touching US$88.66 in Asian trade, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$9.13 to US$100.74.The drop came as Axios overnight reported the two countries were close to a negotiated deal to end hostilities, which was later confirmed by U.S. President Trump. In a social media post, Trump said the war "will be at an end" and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen to traffic if Iran agrees to a U.S. peace proposal, while threatening to resume bombing if its terms are rejected.Citing Iran's state media, Reuters reported Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is claiming the Strait, the chokepoint for exports from Persian Gulf nations supplying 20% of daily oil demand, could reopen if a deal is reached.Oil prices have climbed by more than half since Iran closed the Strait when the war began on Feb. 28, trapping exports of oil, LNG, fertilizers and other commodities in the Persian Gulf. However an end to the war is unlikely to see a quick return to normal. Iranian attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in neighboring countries and restarting production from shut-in oilfields will limit a quick return to pre-war operating levels."If Hormuz were to be reopened, it would take an additional seven months at minimum to fully restore upstream production, assuming no permanent damage and supply chains operate smoothly. A recovery could take longer if there is damage to ports or other transport and loading infrastructure," S&P Global Energy noted.The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported another drop in U.S. commercial oil inventories, saying stocks fell by 2.3-million barrels last week, under the consensus estimate for a drop of 3.3-million barrels among analysts polled by Reuters.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$7.19; Settles at US$95.08 per Barrel

Oil Prices Plunge Following Reports the U.S. and Iran May Be Close to a Peace Deal

Oil prices plunged early Wednesday following reports the United States and Iran are close to an agreement to end their war, offering the possibility the Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen.West Texas Intermediate crude oil was last seen down $8.63 to US$93.64 per barrel after touching US$88.66 in Asian trade, while July Brent oil was down $8.64 to US$101.23.The drop came as Axios overnight reported the two countries were close to a negotiated deal to end hostilities, which was later confirmed by U.S. President Trump. In a social media post, Trump said the war "will be at an end" and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen to traffic if Iran agrees to a U.S. peace proposal, while threatening to resume bombing if its terms are rejected.Citing Iran's state media, Reuters reported Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is claiming the Strait, the chokepoint for exports from Persian Gulf nations supplying 20% of daily oil demand, could reopen if a deal is reached.Oil prices have climbed by more than half since Iran closed the Strait when the war began on Feb. 28, trapping exports of oil, LNG, fertilizers and other commodities in the Persian Gulf. However an end to the war is unlikely to see a quick return to normal. Iranian attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in neighboring countries and restarting production from shut in oilfields will limit a quick return to pre-war operating levels."If Hormuz were to be reopened, it would take an additional seven months at minimum to fully restore upstream production, assuming no permanent damage and supply chains operate smoothly. A recovery could take longer if there is damage to ports or other transport and loading infrastructure," S&P Global Energy noted.A big drop in U.S. oil inventories limited oil's retreat Wednesday. In its weekly survey, the American Petroleum Institute reported domestic oil stocks dropped by 8.1-million barrels last week, well above consensus estimate for a 2.8-million draw, according to Investing.com. The Energy Information Administration will release official inventory data later Wednesday morning.

Brent Crude Down 9.6% and Under US$100 and NY Crude Down 10.4% at Near US$91.60

Brent Crude Down 7.3% at US$101.85 and NY Crude Down 8.25% at Near US$93.80

Update: WTI Crude Oil Falls as the Iran War Ceasefire Holds After Monday's Attacks

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell 3.9% on Tuesday with the ceasefire between the United States and Iran seen holding, calming Monday's gains as violence in the Persian Gulf eased.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$4.15 to settle at US$102.27 per barrel, after rising 4.4% on Monday, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$4.24 to US$110.20.Hostilities in the Iran war picked up on Monday as Iran attacked the United Arab Emirates' Fujairah oil port on the Gulf of Oman, which had been continuing to export oil since the Feb. 28 start to the war, even as Persian Gulf supply remains trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz. It also fired on U.S. warships, claiming to have struck one naval vessel with two missiles, which was denied by the U.S. military.The United States responded by attacks on Iranian fast boats while President Trump said the United States will begin guiding ships through the Strait. Reuters reported the Alliance Fairfax, a U.S.-flagged vehicle carrier, transited the Strait on Monday accompanied by the U.S. military.Still, despite the strikes, reports said U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, speaking at a Tuesday morning press conference, said the ceasefire remains in effect while promising to continue to press to open the Strait of Hormuz.Still, the war has produced the largest-ever oil supply shock as the closure of the Strait blocked exports from the Persian Gulf, which supplied 20% of daily oil demand, keeping oil prices near four-year highs, with any relief unlikely until a peace deal is reached despite U.S. efforts to reopen the waterway."Despite US plans to restore shipping, security risks may keep the route closed until a US-Iran deal, sustaining concern over energy prices," Saxo Bank wrote.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$4.15; Settles at US$102.27 per Barrel

Oil Prices Ease as the Iran War Ceasefire Holds After Monday's Attacks

Oil traded lower early on Tuesday with the ceasefire between the United States and Iran seen holding, calming Monday's gains as violence in the Persian Gulf eased.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery was last seen down US$3.48 to US$102.94 per barrel, after rising 4.4% on Monday, while July Brent oil was down US$1.85 to US$112.59.Hostilities in the Iran war picked up on Monday as Iran attacked the United Arab Emirates' Fujairah oil port on the Gulf of Oman, which had been continuing to export oil since the Feb. 28 start to the war, even as Persian Gulf supply remains trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz. It also fired on U.S. warships, claiming to have struck one naval vessel with two missiles, which was denied by the U.S. military.The United States responded by attacks on Iranian fast boats while President Trump said the United States will begin guiding ships through the Strait. Reuters reported the Alliance Fairfax, a U.S.-flagged vehicle carrier, transited the Strait on Monday accompanied by the U.S. military.Still, despite the strikes, reports said U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, speaking at a Tuesday morning press conference, said the ceasefire remains in effect while promising to continue to press to open the Strait of Hormuz.Still, the war has produced the largest-ever oil supply shock as the closure of the Strait blocked exports from the Persian Gulf, which supplied 20% of daily oil demand, keeping oil prices near four-year highs, with any relief unlikely until a peace deal is reached despite U.S. efforts to reopen the waterway."Despite US plans to restore shipping, security risks may keep the route closed until a US-Iran deal, sustaining concern over energy prices," Saxo Bank wrote.