$CLM6

Brent Crude Down 1.4% at Near US$112.80 and NY Crude Down 2.2% at Just Over US$104

Update: WTI Oil Moves Higher on Escalating Middle East Violence

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed higher Monday in volatile as traders eye escalating violence in the Persian Gulf.WTI oil for June delivery closed up US$4.48 to settle at US$106.42 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen up US$6.53 to US$114.70.Iran attacked the United Arab Emirates oil port of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman, which has allowed the country to continue exporting oil while the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. The Wall Street Journal reported Iran also fired missiles at U.S. warships and commercial vessels.Iran's Fars News Agency also reported Iranian forces struck a U.S. warship with two missiles to prevent it from moving into the Strait, which Iran blocked at the Feb. 28 start of the war, cutting off 20% of the world's oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations. However, The Guardian reported U.S. Central Command dismissed the report, while continuing the blockade of Iranian ports.U.S. President Trump in a weekend social media post said the U.S. would begin escorting ships trapped in the Gulf through the Strait, but offered no details on the scheme. The Wall Street Journal reported Trump "intends to use countries, insurance companies and shipping organizations to move traffic through the strait. It doesn't currently involve U.S. Navy warships escorting vessels through the waterway", citing two U.S. officials. The uncertain details of the plan has done little to lower prices, which have climbed by about half since the conflict began."The market remains fragile because the plan's implementation is uncertain, and Kuwait's oil exports reportedly falling to zero underlines how severe the regional supply disruption has become," Saxo Bank wrote.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$4.48; Settles at US$106.42 per Barrel

Oil Moves Higher as U.S. Denies Iran's Claim It Hit a U.S. Warship with Missiles

Oil prices were higher early Monday in volatile trade after Iran claimed it struck a U.S. warship moving into the Strait of Hormuz with two missiles, a claim denied by U.S. Central Command, according to reports. If such a hit did happen, it would potentially bringing an end to a ceasefire between the two countries.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery was last seen up $1.38 to US$103.32 per barrel, after touching US$107.46 in Asian trade, while July Brent oil was up $2.64 to US$110.81.Iran's Fars News Agency reported Iranian forces struck the U.S. ship to prevent it from moving into the Strait, which Iran blocked at the Feb. 28 start of the war, cutting off 20% of the world's oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations. However, The Guardian reported U.S. Central Command dismissed the report, while continuing the blockade of Iranian ports.U.S. President Trump in a weekend social media post said the U.S. would begin escorting ships trapped in the Gulf through the Strait, but offered no details on the scheme. The Wall Street Journal reported Trump "intends to use countries, insurance companies and shipping organizations to move traffic through the strait. It doesn't currently involve U.S. Navy warships escorting vessels through the waterway", citing two U.S. officials. The uncertain details of the plan has done little to lower prices, which have climbed by about half since the conflict began."The market remains fragile because the plan's implementation is uncertain, and Kuwait's oil exports reportedly falling to zero underlines how severe the regional supply disruption has become," Saxo Bank wrote.

NY Crude Now Up 3.5% at US$105.50 and Brent Crude Up 3.6% at Near US$112.10

NY Crude Up 4.3% at US$106.30 and Brent Crude Up 4.8% at Near US$113.35; Iran Announcing New 'Control Zone' In Strait of Hormuz, says Bloomberg TV, citing Tasnim

Brent Crude Up 1.6% at Near US$109.90

Update: WTI Oil Falls As Iran Offers New Peace Plan

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower Friday as Iran made a new peace proposal, however U.S. President Trump rejected the plan.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$3.13 to US$101.94 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$2.177 to US$108.23.Reuters reported Iran offered a new proposal to reach a peace deal with the United States. While details were not disclosed Trump rejected the plan, telling reporters he was not satisfied with the plan. However he confirmed indirect talks mediated by Pakistan are continuing by phone.Oil remains in short supply following the closure of the Strait, the chokepoint for exports from the Persian Gulf nations that accounted for 20% of daily demand. The lack of supply has pushed up crude oil prices by more than half since the Feb.28 start of the war amid shortages of crude oil and refined products, with Nymex gasoline futures up 81% since the war began while supplies of aviation are tightening.The supply crunch comes ahead of the May 23 start to the Memorial Day weekend, the traditional start of the summer driving season, when demand for fuel peaks, which is likely to push prices even higher."With summer demand season quickly approaching, we see a path for oil prices to exceed the 2022 and even 2008 highs, especially as sentiment may finally be shifting on the duration of the Hormuz blockage," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$3.13; Settles at US$101.94 per Barrel

Oil Mostly Steady As the U.S. and Iran Remain Deadlocked

Oil prices were little changed early Friday as the United States and Iran remain deadlocked, leaving the Strait of Hormuz closed and causing the largest even supply shock that is likely to be compounded by the coming start to the high-demand summer driving season.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery was last seen down $0.80 to US$104.27 per barrel, while July Brent oil was up $0.57 to US$110.97.Oil remains in short supply following the closure of the Strait, the chokepoint for exports from the Persian Gulf nations that accounted for 20% of daily demand. The U.S.-Israel war on Iran is now in its third month and neither side is talking to the other. The Guardian reported Pakistan is acting as a back channel to pass messages between the combatants, but little progress has appeared to be made after scheduled negotiations collapsed last weekend.The lack of supply has pushed up crude oil prices by about half since the Feb.28 start of the war amid shortages of crude oil and refined products, with Nymex gasoline futures up 81% since the war began while supplies of aviation are tightening.The supply crunch comes ahead of the May 23 start to the Memorial Day weekend, the traditional start of the summer driving season, when demand for fuel peaks, which is likely to push prices even higher."With summer demand season quickly approaching, we see a path for oil prices to exceed the 2022 and even 2008 highs, especially as sentiment may finally be shifting on the duration of the Hormuz blockage," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote.

Brent Crude Up Near 0.9% at Near US$111.40 and NY Crude Up Near 0.4% at About US$105.50

Market Chatter: Trump Administration Authorizes New pipeline From Canada to U.S.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday signed an order authorizing the Bridger Pipeline's proposed project to transport Canadian crude from the U.S.-Canada border to Wyoming, CTV News reported.Bridger Pipeline's project would have the capacity to move more than 1 million barrels of oil per day, according to the company. If built and connected, analysts told Reuters it could increase Canada's crude exports to the U.S. by more than 12%.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sources. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Update: WTI Closes Lower, Off Overnight Highs Despite Little Sign of Progress to End the Iran War

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower on Thursday, falling off four-year highs touched overnight during Asian trade on a report the U.S. may end the ceasefire with Iran as the largest-ever supply shock hits hardest for the continent that relies on Persian Gulf supplies now trapped behind the closed Strait of Hormuz.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$1.81 to settle at US$105.07 per barrel after touching US$110.93 overnight, while June Brent oil was last seen down US$4.12 to US$113.91, after it reached US$126.34 overnight, the highest since 2022.WTI has now climbed 59% since the war began on Feb. 28, when Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply, following attacks by the United States and Israel. The United States is now blockading Iranian ports and Iran has demanded that they should be lifted before peace talks can resume, which the U.S. is refusing to do, continuing the largest-ever supply shock.The shortage is hitting hardest in Asia, which buys 80% of Persian Gulf exports, with countries bidding up spot prices and increasingly looking to tap China's strategic stockpiles to avoid shortages."There continue to be reports of fuel shortages in rural communities in several (Asian) countries whilst fuel distribution appears to be a bit of hap hazard. We continue to see more and more essentially government to government deals with China allowing some exports to friendly countries and Thailand considering providing more support to neighboring countries," Vikas Dwivedi, Global Energy Strategist at Macquarie Group, wrote.Still, there is little sign of any negotiations to end the war and reopen the blocked Strait. Talks scheduled between the United States and Iran expected to be held last weekend in Pakistan failed to take place after the U.S. refused an Iranian demand to lift a blockade of Iranian ports. The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. President Trump is asking other countries to join a coalition to reopen the Strait in what the American government is calling the "Maritime Freedom Construct" as it looks for its embassies to press allies to join, while Trump warned of an extended blockade of the Strait until Iran agreed to end its nuclear program.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$1.81; Settles at US$105.07 per Barrel

Oil Price Ease, Falling Off Overnight Highs Despite Little Sign of Progress to End the Iran War

Oil prices eased early on Thursday, falling off four-year highs touched overnight during Asian trade on a report the U.S. may end the ceasefire with Iran as the largest-ever supply shock hits hardest for the continent that relies on Persian Gulf supplies now trapped behind the closed Strait of Hormuz.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for June delivery was last seen down US$2.44 to US$104.44 per barrel after touching US$110.93 overnight, while June Brent oil was down US$4.01 to US$114.02 after it reached US$126.34 overnight, the highest since 2022.WTI has now climbed 59% since the war began on Feb. 28, when Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply, following attacks by the United States and Israel. The United States is now blockading Iranian ports and Iran has demanded that they should be lifted before peace talks can resume, which the U.S. is refusing to do, continuing the largest-ever supply shock.The shortage is hitting hardest in Asia, which buys 80% of Persian Gulf exports, with countries bidding up spot prices and increasingly looking to tap China's strategic stockpiles to avoid shortages."There continue to be reports of fuel shortages in rural communities in several (Asian) countries whilst fuel distribution appears to be a bit of hap hazard. We continue to see more and more essentially government to government deals with China allowing some exports to friendly countries and Thailand considering providing more support to neighboring countries," Vikas Dwivedi, Global Energy Strategist at Macquarie Group, wrote.Still, there is little sign of any negotiations to end the war and reopen the blocked Strait. Talks scheduled between the United States and Iran expected to be held last weekend in Pakistan failed to take place after the U.S. refused an Iranian demand to lift a blockade of Iranian ports. The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. President Trump is asking other countries to join a coalition to reopen the Strait in what the American government is calling the "Maritime Freedom Construct" as it looks for its embassies to press allies to join, while Trump warned of an extended blockade of the Strait until Iran agreed to end its nuclear program.

Brent Crude Down 2.5% at Near US$115 and NY Crude Down 1.5% at Near US$105.20 After Eight Day Streak of Higher Prices

Brent Crude Now Down 1.5% at About US$116.20, Having Touched Above $126 a Barrel Earlier

Update: WTI Oil Closes Above US$100 With No End to the Iran War in Sight; U.S. Inventories Fall

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed higher on Wednesday, rising for a fourth-straight session as hopes for a coming end to the Iran war and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz fade, while a report showed an larger than expected drop in U.S. oil inventories.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed up US$6.95 to settle at US$106.88 per barrel, the highest since April 7, while June Brent oil was last seen up US$6.74 to US$118.00.WTI has now climbed 59% since the war began on Feb. 28, when Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply, following attacks by the United States and Israel. The United States is now blockading Iranian ports and Iran has demanded that be lifted before peace talks can resume, which the U.S. is refusing to do, continuing the largest-ever supply shock."The near closure of the Strait of Hormuz prolongs a disruption that continues to tighten global energy markets ... Traders now focus on the next steps in peace talks and today's US inventory report for further signs of how quickly US stockpiles are falling amid robust export demand," Saxo Bank wrote.In its weekly survey, the Energy Information Administration reported U.S. commercial oil inventories fell by 6.2-million barrels last week, while the consensus estimate among analysts polled by Reuters forecast a drop of 2.2-million barrels.The oil market is also focusing on the Tuesday decision by the United Arab Emirates to withdraw from the OPEC Cartel. The UAE is OPEC's third-largest producer and the No. 7 global oil exporter. The decision is unlikely to have a near-term effect, given the supply shock, but could add additional supply to the market once the conflict ends."Given the world is currently suffering from a lack of supply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE's departure doesn't really matter since it is already producing at its maximum capacity. That is the maximum it can export via its pipeline (1.5-1.8 mb/d) to the Gulf of Oman given the closure of the Strait, which is why the UAE's overall output fell to 2.37 mb/d in March (vs. 3.64 mb/d in February). In the longer run, when hopefully the conflict is resolved, it may matter more as the UAE could supply the global oil market with an additional 1.0 mb/d. Moreover, OPEC/OPEC+ is losing one of its most vital members," Art Woo, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$6.95: Settles at US$106.88 per Barrel

U.A.E's OPEC Withdrawal Likely to Begin Lowering Oil Prices by 2027

The decision by the United Arab Emirates to withdraw from the OPEC cartel on May 1 is unlikely to offer any near-term relief from high oil prices this year, but raises over-supply risks and lower prices beginning as soon as 2027, Woods Mackenzie said on Wednesday.The UAE's move to leave OPEC comes amid its long-standing push to boost production as it chafed under OPEC quotas while spending to boost its potential output. The country is OPEC's No.3 oil producer and the world's No.7 exporter. Removing quota restrictions makes it a powerful competitor to the cartel and could begin returning the market to over-supply once a recovery from the Iran war is complete."As the nation with the second-largest liquids capacity in OPEC, the UAE's exit is momentous. However, it's not entirely surprising as political tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia have been building over the last few years and have intensified in recent months amid the ongoing conflict in Iran. UAE's departure from OPEC will have minimal impact on market fundamentals in 2026, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Gulf countries, including the UAE, will take months to return to pre-war production volumes. Beyond this year, losing the UAE will compound OPEC's challenge to balance the market and increase the risk of oversupply weakening prices," chief analyst Simon Flowers said in a release.The analytics firm said when the UAE begins competing with OPEC, OPEC+ and other producers for market share next year "challenges OPEC's current policy of unwinding its voluntary cuts. If tensions escalate, competition between the UAE and OPEC for market share could send medium-term oil prices sharply lower".