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Research

TD Cowen Downgrades Carlyle to Hold From Buy, Adjusts Price Target to $53 From $54

Carlyle (CG) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $61.81, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)

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Research

Research Alert: CFRA Lowers Shares Of The Carlyle Group Inc. To Sell From Buy

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We lower our target price by $25 to $45, using a forward 2026 P/E of 10.7x vs. the five-year historical average of 11.5x and below peer average. We reduce our 2026 EPS estimate by $0.50 to $4.20 and 2027's by $0.25 to $5.15 on revenue projections of $4.2B and $5.0B, respectively. We believe CG's performance and outlook is not keeping pace with larger peers in the alternative asset management (ALT) industry. We were disappointed by CG's Q1 2026 results on several metrics, including distributable earnings. The quarter saw significant investment losses of $617M, primarily reflecting the reversal of unrealized performance allocations. This was largely attributable to depreciation in the firm's seventh U.S. buyout fund, due to market price decreases of certain public investments, though partially offset by appreciation in international energy funds. Net accrued performance revenues declined to $2.6B from $2.9B in Q4 2025, representing a 9% quarterly decrease due to these carry reversals in the quarter.

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Research

Research Alert: The Carlyle Group Misses On Distributable Earnings In Q1 2026

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:CG reported mixed Q1 2026 results with total AUM growing 5% to $475B while fee-earning AUM rose only 1% to $333B. Total segment revenue declined 28% Y/Y with realized performance fees dropping sharply to $62M from $355M a year ago. We believe ALT firms like CG should never be judged on just one quarter of performance, as fee-related earnings, performance fees, fund inflows, and monetizations are asymmetrical quarter-to-quarter, and management highlighted CG's position as the #1 private equity sponsor globally by IPO proceeds since 2024, generating approximately $10B over the past two years. Management expressed strong momentum into the current year despite providing no specific 2026 guidance and an earnings miss in Q1 2026. Inflows were solid at $13.0B in Q1 and $52.5B LTM, underpinned by insurance solutions and asset-backed finance strategies in Global Credit. Deployments totaled $10.0B mostly across Global Credit, while realized proceeds of $12.2B suggest stable market conditions for exits.

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Sectors

Sector Update: Financial Stocks Mostly Lower Pre-Bell Thursday

Financial stocks were mostly lower pre-bell Thursday, with the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) declining 0.2%.The Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) declined 0.3% and its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) was 0.4% higher.Carlyle (CG) stock was down more than 5% pre-bell after the company reported lower Q1 after-tax distributable earnings and revenue.Primo Brands (PRMB) shares were down more than 5% before the opening bell after the company reported lower Q1 adjusted net income.Patria Investments (PAX) stock advanced by nearly 2% after the company reported higher Q1 distributable earnings and revenue.

$CG$FAS$FAZ$PAX$PRMB$XLF
Commodities

Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Higher Pre-Bell Thursday Amid Corporate Earnings, Economic Data Deluge

The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was up 0.2% and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was 0.1% higher in Thursday's premarket activity amid a deluge of corporate earnings results and economic data.US stock futures were also higher, with S&P 500 Index futures up 0.1%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures advancing 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures gaining 0.1% before the start of regular trading.US layoff intentions rose in April, led by the technology sector due to increased use of AI, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday.US initial jobless claims rose to a level of 200,000 in the week ended May 2 from an upwardly revised 190,000 level in the previous week, compared with expectations for a larger increase to 205,000 in survey of analysts compiled by Bloomberg.Nonfarm productivity rose by 0.8% in Q1 after a downwardly revised 1.6% increase in Q4, above expectations for a 0.6% gain in a survey compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:40 am ET, data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed.Construction spending data for February and March will be released at 10 am ET, followed by weekly natural gas stocks at 10:30 am ET.The consumer credit data for March posts at 3 pm ET.Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and New York Fed President John Williams are slated to speak on Thursday.In premarket activity, bitcoin was down by 0.6%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was 0.8% lower, Ether ETF (EETH) retreated 1%, and Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) was flat.Power Play:IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) advanced 0.3%, while the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) was flat and the iShares US Industrials ETF (IYJ) was inactive.MDA Space (MDA) stock was up more than 8% before the opening bell after the company reported higher Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue.Winners and Losers:Health CareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) advanced 0.1%, the Vanguard Health Care Index Fund (VHT) retreated 0.3%, while the iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH) slipped 1.5%. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) was 0.8% higher.Viatris (VTRS) stock was down more than 3% premarket after gaining 2.8% at the prior close. The company reported higher Q1 financial results and reaffirmed its 2026 guidance.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) retreated by 0.2%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) was down 0.4%, while its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), was 0.4% higher.Carlyle (CG) shares were down more than 3% pre-bell after the company reported lower Q1 after-tax distributable earnings and revenue.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) retreated 0.01%, and the iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) was 0.03% lower, while the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was down 0.7%. Among semiconductor ETFs, the State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) gained 0.03%, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rose by 0.4%.Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) shares were up more than 2% in premarket activity after closing the prior session with a 2.8% rise. Bloomberg reported that Google has proposed changes to how it shows news results in its search engine to avoid further EU competition fines.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) was down 0.3%, the Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund ETF Shares (VDC) was up 0.03%, while the iShares US Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) was inactive. The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) lost 0.7%. The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) was 0.6% higher, while the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) retreated by 0.3%.Tesla (TSLA) shares were up more than 1% pre-bell after Reuters reported the EV maker's China-made electric vehicle sales rose for a sixth consecutive month on a year-over-year basis.EnergyThe iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) was down 0.9%, while the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) was 1.1% lower.Shell (SHEL) stock was down more than 1% before the opening bell after the company reported lower-than-expected Q1 revenue.CommoditiesFront-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil retreated by 3.3% to $91.97 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas was down by 1% at $2.70 per 1 million British Thermal Units. The United States Oil Fund (USO) fell by 3.3%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 0.3% lower.Gold futures for May gained by 1.2% to reach $4,748.30 an ounce on the Comex. Silver futures advanced by 5.4% to $81.44 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was 1% higher, and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) rose by 4.7%.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$BETH$BITO$CG$EEM$EETH$EXI$FAS$FAZ$GLD$GOOG$GOOGL$IBB$IGM$IGV$IPK$IVV$IWM$IYE$IYH$IYJ$IYK$IYW$MDA$PMR$QQQ$RTH$SHEL$SLV$SOXX$SPY$TSLA$UNG$USO$VDC$VHT$VIS$VRTS$XLE$XLF$XLI$XLK$XLP$XLV$XLY$XRT$XSD
Sectors

Sector Update: Financial

Financial stocks were mostly lower pre-bell Thursday, with the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) declining by 0.1%.The Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) fell by 0.1%, and its bearish counterpart Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) was 0.5% higher.Carlyle (CG) stock fell over 5% pre-bell after the company reported lower Q1 after-tax distributable earnings and revenue.

$CG$FAS$FAZ$XLF
Equities

Diversified Energy, Carlyle Partner to Acquire $1.18 Billion Worth of Oklahoma Energy Assets

Diversified Energy (DEC) and Carlyle's (CG) global credit platform exercised a purchase agreement for the acquisition of a portfolio of oil and natural gas properties and related assets in Oklahoma's Anadarko Basin from Camino Natural Resources for $1.18 billion, the companies said Wednesday.The acquisition includes an additional 100 undeveloped inventory locations in an active area, with Diversified owning more than 450 locations in Oklahoma, the companies said.The acquisition will be financed by an asset-backed securitization structured and arranged by Carlyle, the companies said.

$CG$DEC
Sectors

Sector Update: Financial Stocks Fall Monday

Financial stocks declined Monday with the NYSE Financial Index falling 1.1% and the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) losing 0.7%.The Philadelphia Housing Index dropped 3.4%, and the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) shed 0.6%.Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose 1.7% to $79,950, and the yield for 10-year US Treasuries gained 6.8 basis points to 4.45%.In economic news, new orders for US factory goods rose 1.5% in March, above expectations for a 0.6% gain in a Bloomberg survey, following a revised 0.3% increase in February. Excluding a 0.8% rebound in transportation orders, new orders would have been up 1.6%, topping the projected 1.3% gain and matching February's pace.In corporate news, Boyd, which is backed by Goldman Sachs (GS) Asset Management, is offering a deeply discounted loan to refinance its capital structure following the sale of its liquid-cooling business to Eaton (ETN), Bloomberg reported. Goldman shares fell 2.2%.Carlyle (CG) arranged a first-of-its-kind financing that will seed its next flagship buyout fund while repaying investors in some of its older funds, Bloomberg reported. Carlyle shares rose 1.1%.American Express Global Business Travel, which is operated by Global Business Travel (GBTG), agreed to be acquired by Long Lake Management for $6.3 billion in cash. Global Business Travel shares surged 58%.Blackstone (BX) Digital Infrastructure Trust set its initial public offering at 87.5 million shares with an anticipated price of $20 a share. Blackstone shares fell 1.7%.

$BX$CG$GBTG$GS
Wire

Market Chatter: Carlyle Arranges Financing to Seed Next Flagship Buyout Fund

Carlyle (CG) has arranged a first-of-its-kind financing that will seed its next flagship buyout fund while repaying investors in some of its older funds, Bloomberg reported Monday, citing people with knowledge of the matter.The credit deal will total about $8.5 billion, and half of it will be composed of bank debt with the balance in preferred equity and common equity, the report said.Additionally, Carlyle will take a significant minority holding in the common equity with cash from its balance sheet and partners, the people said, according to the news outlet.Carlyle did not immediately respond to' request for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)Price: $50.11, Change: $+0.67, Percent Change: +1.36%

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Mining & Metals

Carlyle Group Cited As Being Interested As CAE Evaluates Strategic Alternatives, notes RBC Capital Markets

An unconfirmed report, via a Betaville "uncooked" alert, is circulating that CAE (CAE.TO, CAE) is working with an adviser to evaluate strategic alternatives for all or part of the business, with Carlyle Group (CG) cited as one interested PE party, RBC Capital Markets noted in a note dated April 27."We view this as neutral, as it is consistent with commentary from management's most recent earnings call (Q3 FY2026, February 13, 2026), where CEO Matt Bromberg explicitly disclosed that CAE had completed a bottom-up portfolio review, identified non-core assets representing near 8% of revenue, and had already engaged advisers on potential transactions -- while cautioning that these transformations typically take 18-24 months," RBC said."With no incremental detail beyond the unconfirmed report, we don't see this as a standalone catalyst, though we note CAE trades at low-teens EV/EBITDA and high-20s P/E, which provides some context for evaluating potential transaction economics alongside any strategic considerations," RBC added.Shares in CAE were down about 0.15% in US premarket trade today amid lower broader stock futures markets.

$CAE$CAE.TO$CG
Sectors

Sector Update: Financial Stocks Advance Late Afternoon

Financial stocks were higher in late Tuesday afternoon trading with the NYSE Financial Index rising 0.5%, and the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) increasing 0.4%.The Philadelphia Housing Index rose 0.6%, and the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) climbed 1%.Bitcoin (BTC-USD) shed 0.3% to $74,210, and the yield for 10-year US Treasuries fell 4.1 basis points to 4.256%.In economic news, the US Producer Price Index rose by 0.5% in March, the same as in February and below the 1.1% gain expected in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. Energy prices jumped by 8.5% in the month after a 2.1% gain in the previous month due to a 15.7% surge in gasoline prices. Excluding food and energy, core PPI edged up 0.1%, below the 0.4% gain forecast and slower than the 0.3% gain reported in February.The International Monetary Fund now expects 2.3% US economic growth in 2026, a downward adjustment from its 2.4% estimate set out in January, and compares with the 2.1% growth reported in 2025. The IMF also revised down its 2026 global growth outlook in its World Economic Outlook update released Tuesday.In corporate news, Carlyle (CG) has attracted $1.5 billion in the first round of fundraising for its Carlyle Asset-Backed Income Fund from pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors, Bloomberg reported. Carlyle shares gained 4.1%.Citigroup's (C) Q1 results came in stronger than Wall Street's expectations amid double-digit gains in fixed income and investment banking revenue. The stock rose 2.2%.Wells Fargo's (WFC) Q1 revenue missed market expectations as Chief Executive Charlie Scharf said there will likely be a lag in the pass-through of higher oil prices. Its shares dropped 5.6%.JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported better-than-expected Q1 results on Tuesday, while Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said the US economy remained resilient but warned of an "increasingly complex set of risks," including wars and energy price volatility. JPMorgan shares decreased 0.9%.KKR (KKR) has limited redemptions to 5% of its asset-based finance fund K-ABF after receiving withdrawal requests of about 7.2%, Bloomberg reported. KKR shares were up 2.3%.

$C$CG$JPM$KKR$WFC
Sectors

Sector Update: Financial

Financial stocks were higher in late Tuesday afternoon trading with the NYSE Financial Index rising 0.5% and the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) increasing 0.4%.The Philadelphia Housing Index rose 0.6%, and the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) climbed 1%.Bitcoin (BTC-USD) shed 0.3% to $74,210, and the yield for 10-year US Treasuries fell 4.1 basis points to 4.256%.In corporate news, Carlyle (CG) has attracted $1.5 billion in the first round of fundraising for its Carlyle Asset-Backed Income Fund from pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors, Bloomberg reported. Carlyle shares gained 4.3%.

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Wire

Market Chatter: Carlyle Asset-Backed Income Fund Raises $1.5 Billion in First Round

Carlyle Group (CG) has attracted $1.5 billion in the first round of fundraising for its Carlyle Asset-Backed Income Fund from pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors, Bloomberg reported Tuesday, citing a source familiar with the matter.The fund does not have a preset end date unlike most credit vehicles, the source said.Carlyle did not immediately reply to a request for comment from.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)Price: $50.28, Change: $+1.08, Percent Change: +2.18%

$CG
Sectors

Sector Update: Financial Stocks Advance Late Afternoon

Financial stocks increased late Thursday afternoon, with the NYSE Financial Index adding 0.3% and the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) up 0.4%.The Philadelphia Housing Index was climbing 1.2%, and the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) rose 0.8%.Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose 1.1% to $72,174, and the yield for 10-year US Treasuries was slightly lower at 4.29%.In economic news, US economic growth, measured by gross domestic product, was revised lower to a 0.5% increase in Q4 from a 0.7% gain in the second estimate, compared with estimates for no revision in a Bloomberg survey.US initial jobless claims rose to 219,000 in the week ended April 4 from an upwardly revised 203,000 in the previous week, compared with expectations for 210,000 in a Bloomberg poll.In corporate news, Ares Management (ARES) on Thursday agreed to acquire Whitestone REIT (WSR) in an all-cash deal worth about $1.7 billion. Ares shares were fractionally down, and Whitestone jumped nearly 12%.Carlyle (CG) will limit redemptions to 5% for its Tactical Private Credit Fund after receiving repurchase requests amounting to roughly 15.7% of shares outstanding, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing a shareholder letter. Carlyle shares were little changed.Goldman Sachs-backed (GS) Japanese taxi-hailing provider Go plans an initial public offering in 2026 that could raise between 50 billion yen ($314.5 million) and 80 billion yen, Bloomberg reported. Goldman shares shed 0.2%.TPG (TPG) has hired UBS (UBS) and Malayan Banking to help weigh options for Malaysian medical services provider Asia OneHealthcare, Bloomberg reported. TPG shares rose 1.2%, and UBS added 0.3%.

$ARES$CG$GS$TPG$UBS$WSR

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