Research Alert: CFRA Lowers Shares Of The Carlyle Group Inc. To Sell From Buy

-- CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

We lower our target price by $25 to $45, using a forward 2026 P/E of 10.7x vs. the five-year historical average of 11.5x and below peer average. We reduce our 2026 EPS estimate by $0.50 to $4.20 and 2027's by $0.25 to $5.15 on revenue projections of $4.2B and $5.0B, respectively. We believe CG's performance and outlook is not keeping pace with larger peers in the alternative asset management (ALT) industry. We were disappointed by CG's Q1 2026 results on several metrics, including distributable earnings. The quarter saw significant investment losses of $617M, primarily reflecting the reversal of unrealized performance allocations. This was largely attributable to depreciation in the firm's seventh U.S. buyout fund, due to market price decreases of certain public investments, though partially offset by appreciation in international energy funds. Net accrued performance revenues declined to $2.6B from $2.9B in Q4 2025, representing a 9% quarterly decrease due to these carry reversals in the quarter.

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise on Small Storage Injection

US natural gas futures erased early losses and maintained higher prices in after-hours trade on Thursday after government data showed a smaller-than-expected increase in domestic gas inventories, triggering short covering and reinforcing expectations that the spring supply-demand balance may be tightening modestly.Both the front-month Henry Hub futures and the continuous contract rose 1.90% to $2.782 per million British thermal units.The US Energy Information Administration said natural gas inventories for the week ended May 1 rose by 63 billion cubic feet, below analyst expectations for a 72-80 Bcf build and under the five-year average increase of 77 Bcf for the week.The bullish storage surprise prompted buying in front-month contracts after futures had traded lower ahead of the report, Barchart said.Despite the smaller injection, supply levels remain ample. US gas inventories were 2.8% above year-ago levels and 6.7% above the five-year seasonal average.The Energy Buyers Guide said the market will likely be focused on "whether this storage miss was a one-off or a harbinger of a more durable shift in the underlying fundamental balance".Analysts at Gelber & Associates said the price lift "reinforced the idea that the spring balance is not quite as loose as consensus had assumed," the firm said, adding that the market still viewed the move as a near-term adjustment rather than the start of a sustained rally, noting that elevated inventories continue to limit upside potential for winter contracts."The rally is doing more to firm up summer risk than to meaningfully reprice next winter when storage remains above the five-year average," the firm said.Analysts also pointed to competing forces in the broader market, with strong LNG exports supporting prices while robust domestic production continues to weigh on sentiment.According to Barchart, citing data from BNEF, US lower-48 dry gas production on Thursday was estimated at 110.9 Bcf per day, up 4.5% from a year earlier. Demand across the lower 48 states was estimated at 71.0 Bcf/d, up 10.2% year over year.Flows to US LNG export terminals were estimated at 17.7 Bcf/d, down 5.9% from the prior week due to maintenance slowdowns.Gelber said the market can pop on a bullish storage surprise but still "needs either sustained heat, a more persistent slowdown in supply growth, or a string of smaller injections to make the move stick beyond the near-term contracts."

Research Alert: CFRA Lowers Shares Of The Carlyle Group Inc. To Sell From Buy

Related Articles

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise on Small Storage Injection

Earnings Flash (EXE.TO) Extendicare Reports Q1 Net Earnings Increased $25.7M to $40.7M In Q1 2026 Vs Q1 2025

Earnings Flash (LAS-A.TO) Lassonde Industries Inc. Reports Q1 Revenue $664.0M Vs $699.7M a Year Earlier

Related Articles

Commodities17m ago
US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise on Small Storage Injection
US natural gas futures erased early losses and maintained higher prices in after-hours trade on Thursday after government data showed a smaller-than-expected increase in domestic gas inventories, triggering short covering and reinforcing expectations that the spring supply-demand balance may be tightening modestly.Both the front-month Henry Hub futures and the continuous contract rose 1.90% to $2.782 per million British thermal units.The US Energy Information Administration said natural gas inventories for the week ended May 1 rose by 63 billion cubic feet, below analyst expectations for a 72-80 Bcf build and under the five-year average increase of 77 Bcf for the week.The bullish storage surprise prompted buying in front-month contracts after futures had traded lower ahead of the report, Barchart said.Despite the smaller injection, supply levels remain ample. US gas inventories were 2.8% above year-ago levels and 6.7% above the five-year seasonal average.The Energy Buyers Guide said the market will likely be focused on "whether this storage miss was a one-off or a harbinger of a more durable shift in the underlying fundamental balance".Analysts at Gelber & Associates said the price lift "reinforced the idea that the spring balance is not quite as loose as consensus had assumed," the firm said, adding that the market still viewed the move as a near-term adjustment rather than the start of a sustained rally, noting that elevated inventories continue to limit upside potential for winter contracts."The rally is doing more to firm up summer risk than to meaningfully reprice next winter when storage remains above the five-year average," the firm said.Analysts also pointed to competing forces in the broader market, with strong LNG exports supporting prices while robust domestic production continues to weigh on sentiment.According to Barchart, citing data from BNEF, US lower-48 dry gas production on Thursday was estimated at 110.9 Bcf per day, up 4.5% from a year earlier. Demand across the lower 48 states was estimated at 71.0 Bcf/d, up 10.2% year over year.Flows to US LNG export terminals were estimated at 17.7 Bcf/d, down 5.9% from the prior week due to maintenance slowdowns.Gelber said the market can pop on a bullish storage surprise but still "needs either sustained heat, a more persistent slowdown in supply growth, or a string of smaller injections to make the move stick beyond the near-term contracts."

Mining & Metals18m ago
Earnings Flash (EXE.TO) Extendicare Reports Q1 Net Earnings Increased $25.7M to $40.7M In Q1 2026 Vs Q1 2025
$EXE.TO

Mining & Metals20m ago
Earnings Flash (LAS-A.TO) Lassonde Industries Inc. Reports Q1 Revenue $664.0M Vs $699.7M a Year Earlier
$LAS-A.TO