S&P/TSX Composite

Market Chatter: U.S. Administration Demanding "Entry Fee" From Ottawa Before Trade Talks

The Trump administration is demanding what amounts to an "entry fee" from Canada to engage in trade talks toward a revised Canada-United States-Mexico Free Trade Agreement (CUSMA), four sources told Radio-Canada, CBC is reporting Wednesday."The Americans are setting conditions before negotiations begin," said one high-ranking individual familiar with the matter.Three sources used the term "entry fee" to describe concessions the U.S. administration is seeking before formal trade talks begin.The U.S. demand was also confirmed by former Quebec premier Jean Charest, who was appointed Tuesday to Prime Minister Mark Carney's new advisory committee on Canada-U.S. economic relations. "[U.S. President Donald] Trump wants us to make a lot of concessions before we sit down at the table," Charest told Radio-Canada. "Meanwhile, he wouldn't make any."On the U.S. side, the report said, there are suggestions that Canada should try to get Trump's attention by making an immediate concession, especially since the president is juggling several major issues right now.However, Canadian sources said they have twice offered concessions to the U.S. administration without receiving anything in return. On the way into a cabinet meeting Wednesday, Carney said the Canadian government has multiple levels of contacts with the U.S. administration that address different trade issues between the two countries. "It's not a case of the United States dictates the terms. We have a negotiation, we can come to a mutually successful outcome, it will take some time and we will take some time," he said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sourcesd. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Canada Economics Brief: U.S. Administration Demanding Concessions Before Formally Launching CUSMA talks, sources tell Radio-Canada

Canada Economics Brief: U.S. Administration Demanding "Entry Fee" From Ottawa Before Trade Talks, Canada's CBC reporting, citing sources

TSX Up Near 230 Pts Early Wednesday; Lost 550 Pts on Tuesday

TMX Group Moves To Buy Cboe Australia and Cboe Canada

TMX Group (X.TO), with key operations that include Toronto Stock Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange, announced Wednesday an agreement to acquire Middlebury Holdings Pty. Limited (Cboe Australia) and Cboe Canada Holdings, ULC (Cboe Canada) from Cboe Global Markets, Inc. for US$300 million in total consideration.In a statement TMX said the transaction will bolster its ability to serve clients across the capital markets ecosystem, expand the company's global presence, and accelerate the company's growth strategy, while reducing cost and complexity for Canadian market participants."We are tremendously excited to announce the acquisition of Cboe Australia and Cboe Canada, a deal that represents a unique opportunity to strengthen our domestic marketplace for clients and the entire stakeholder ecosystem, while expanding the reach and impact of our presence in a region of the world we know well," said John McKenzie, Chief Executive Officer. "We look forward to working with our industry partners to ensure a smooth transition, and to exploring innovative ways to serve the needs of issuers and investors across the Australian market, while continuing to seek out opportunities to accelerate our enterprise growth strategy."TMX, noting Cboe Australia and Cboe Canada offer equities trading venues, listing venues and market data solutions, said the transaction will create a "global powerhouse" for mining finance and reduce complexity and costs for Canadian market participants.Shares in TMX were down $0.28 or 0.5% at $53.89 in Canada yesterday.

Nasdaq 100 Futures Up 0.7% and S&P Futures Up 0.55%

S&P Futures Up 0.55% As US President Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire, After Vowing Not To

TSX Closer: Index Slumps On Profit Taking and Nerves Around a Middle East Ceasefire

The Toronto Stock Exchange slumped on Tuesday on some profit taking after a recent strong run gains and amid market nerves ahead of Wednesday's scheduled expiration of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 551.73 points, or 1.6%, to 33,808.30, with all sectors bar one lower as Energy, rose 1.9% on elevated oil prices. Base Metals was the biggest loser, down 3.8%, not helped by a deflated gold price. The TSX was up in 12 of the prior 14 sessions leading into today.Investor focus appears to be on the current U.S.-Iran ceasefire, which went into effect on April 8, but is set to expire "Wednesday evening Washington time," according to U.S. President Donald Trump. The president told Bloomberg in an interview he is "highly unlikely" to extend the ceasefire if no deal is reached with Iran.U.S. Vice President JD Vance was supposed to depart earlier today for the next round of negotiations in Pakistan but he has, reportedly, since gone to the White House for policy meetings. Details around his planned departure are now unclear. The Wall Street Journal reported Iran is refusing to attend negotiations until the U.S. Navy lifts a blockade of the country's ports.Of commodities today, West Texas Intermediate closed higher Tuesday amid an uncertain outlook for peace talks between Iran and the United States. WTI crude oil for May delivery closed up US$2.52 to settle at US$92.13 per barrel, while June Brent oil was up US$3.11 to US$98.59.Gold prices were down a second day by midafternoon Tuesday as the dollar rose after U.S. retail sales rose above expectations last month, while talks between the United States and Iran could see an end to the Middle East war that has sent the price of oil and other commodities higher. Gold for May delivery was down US$105.50 to US$4,723.30 per ounce.

TSX Down 335 Points at Midday With Miners The Worst Performer

The Toronto Stock Exchange is down 335 points at midday with most sectors in the red.Energy is the sole gainer, up 1.1%. Miners, down 3.0%, is the worst performer.In domestic news, Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled a new Canada-U.S. advisory council ahead of the CUSMA review process this summer.The council is made up of some members from the previous council while adding former Conservative leader Erin O'Toole, former Conservative cabinet minister Lisa Raitt, and former Canadian High Commissioner to the United Kingdom Ralph Goodale.The committee will hold its first meeting on April 27 a statement from the prime minister's office said.In stocks, Goodfood Market (FOOD.TO), which reported a wider second-quarter loss this morning, is down 21% to $0.17 per share.

TSX Fluctuating Between Modest Gains and Modest Losses Early Tuesday; Late Rally Brought 12th Win Day In Last 14 on Monday

TSX Closer: Index Rallied Late To Make It 12 Gains In The Last 14 Sessions

The Toronto Stock Exchange rallied late to post a modest gain Monday with investors buoyed by two domestic economic updates, RBC Economics noting business sentiment was "stable" in Canada amid the Iran conflict, while National Bank said Canada's current inflation environment "calls for a bit of patience".The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 13.74 to 34,360.03, with sectors mixed after the index was lower for most of the session on some profit taking after a strong recent run up and some nerves as market watchers await an end to the Iran war. Among gainers, Health Care was up 2.85% and Info Tech up near 1.6%. The Battery Metals Index was down near 1.5%.Perhaps in reflecting global investor sentiment, Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie Group, published a note entitled 'Traders haven't given up the prospect of permanent US-Iran deal' in which he said despite the "disturbing" news flow from the weekend, financial market prices were largely stable to start the week. Wizman added: "This means that traders haven't given up on the prospect of reaching a permanent deal within a multiweek timeframe. We believe that this is the 'correct' attitude so long as traders also recognize that the peace process is likely to be long and jagged. As most peace processes are."Edward Jones in its 'Weekly wrap', noted markets have rapidly priced out worst-case risks, with easing oil pressures, stabilizing rates, and resilient earnings helping drive one of the fastest rebounds to new highs on record for the S&P 500. Edward Jones said corporate profits remain the most durable support, in its view, with double-digit TSX and S&P 500 earnings growth expected to continue in the quarters ahead. "While a near-term pause or consolidation is likely, we think a credible path toward de-escalation could see markets revert to earlier year leadership, favouring cyclicals, small- and mid-caps, emerging markets, and a balanced growth value approach," it added.RBC said this morning's Q1 Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey revealed healthier than expected business sentiment and investment/hiring intentions in February and March amid the Middle East conflict, but concerning signs of business inflation expectations edging higher through March. "Taken together, the results are broadly consistent with our expectations for per-capita domestic demand to slowly improve in 2026, absorbing remaining economic slack. The full impact of high oil prices will take time to play out and to date poses no real urgency for the BoC to intervene," the bank addedRBC's base case assumes declining but still elevated oil prices will have a relatively neutral impact on Canada's economy with limited second-round effects on non-energy consumer prices. It expects the BoC to monitor inflation expectations closely but won't make a move this year.Elsewhere, National Bank said the BoC's Business Outlook Survey, "arguably the most important soft data release in Canada", had signaled improvements in the outlook. It noted the latest survey (2026 Q1, conducted between February 5-25), highlighted an improved outlook on future sales, hiring, and investment intentions prior to the onset of the Mideast conflict, a topic that was discussed in survey follow-up calls.In a separate note, National Bank wrote while inflationary pressures increased here in March on the crisis in the Middle East, they were "generally less pronounced than economists had widely expected", with the bank noting annual inflation rose from 1.8% in February to 2.4% in March, but remained well below the 2.6% forecast by economists. According to National Bank, what surprised economists most in March was the stagnation of prices in the basket excluding food and energy. On a three-month annualized basis, these prices rose by only 0.5%, the slowest pace in two years.As for the measures favored by the Central Bank, National Bank noted they are growing at rates that are "comfortable", at 2.0% and 1.3%, respectively. For reference, the central bank had projected last January that the average of these two measures would be 2.5% (y/y) during the quarter, which is materially higher than what actually occurred (2.3%). "This morning's report reinforces our view that the Central Bank should, for now, overlook the rise in energy prices by keeping rates unchanged. Core inflation remains contained, reflecting an economy with excess supply. We believe that the risk of second-round effects (wage-push inflation) from the surge in energy prices is unlikely. As for interest rates, they seem far from accommodative in the current environment marked by geopolitical uncertainty and trade tensions with Washington. Indeed, the labour market stumbled at the start of the year, and the housing market continues to weaken. All in all, the current environment calls for a bit of patience," National Bank said.Of commodities today, West Texas Intermediate crude oil surged 6.9% after Iran again closed the Strait of Hormuz after the United States refused to end a blockade of country's ports while firing on and seizing an Iranian cargo ship. WTI crude oil for May delivery closed up US$5.76 to settle at US$89.61 per barrel, while June Brent oil was up US$4.74 to US$95.12.But gold traded lower as the dollar rose while hopes for an end to the war on Iran faded after Iran on Friday opened and then closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up oil prices and the dollar on worries over higher inflation and interest rates. Gold for May delivery was down US$51.80 to US$4,827.80 per ounce.

TSX Down 27 Points at Midday

The Toronto Stock Exchange is down 27 points at midday as Middle East peace prospects grow fainter.Miners, down 0.5%, is the worst performer, as precious metals prices decline.Healthcare and energy, up 2% and 0.9% are the best performers.On the economic front, all eyes were on the release of Canadian CPI for March.CIBC noted the 2.4% headline reading, driven by a 0.9% not seasonally adjusted m/m increase (0.5% after seasonal adjustment), was actually slightly below the consensus expectation (2.6%) but still a sharp acceleration from 1.8% in the prior month."Everyone knew that inflation jumped in March due to higher gasoline prices, the only question remaining was how high?," CIBC said. "As it turned out," the bank added, "the jump in headline inflation wasn't quite as high as expected, and core measures continued to show little sign of inflationary pressure outside of the surge in fuel prices. Pass-through from higher energy prices into core measures of inflation may become more evident closer to the summer months, particularly in areas such as air fares, but slack within the Canadian economy should prevent those measures from reaccelerating too much, enabling the Bank of Canada to remain on the sidelines through 2026."For RBC the bottom line is that while some components, particularly grocery prices and rent, are still running well above year-ago levels, the March report reinforces its view that recent increases in oil prices can push headline inflation higher in the near term but are unlikely to re-ignite broader inflation pressures. RBC said the BoC will keep a close eye on inflation expectations, but added slower core price growth measures leave the central bank flexibility to also keep an eye on what is still a soft economic backdrop with the unemployment rate still elevated.In stocks, Rupert Resources (RUP.TO) jumped 65% to an all-time high of $11.86, after it announced that it was being acquired by Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM.TO) in a deal that values the company at $2.9 billion.

Canada CPI in March Higher on Energy, Food Prices, But The Advance Is Less Than Expected

The Canadian consumer price index increased 2.4% year over year in March, up from an increase of 1.8% year over year in February, said the country's statistical agency on Monday.March's CPI was lower than the 2.6% year-over-year consensus figure provided by Scotiabank.Driving faster price growth in headline inflation were higher prices for energy, especially gasoline, due to the conflict in the Middle East, noted Statistics Canada in a statement. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose at a slower pace year over year in March of 2.2% compared with February's 2.4%.The CPI was up 0.9% month over month in March on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, added StatsCan. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.5% month over month.Energy prices rose 3.9% on a year-over-year basis in March, after decreasing 9.3% in February. On a monthly basis, energy prices rose 13.1% in March.Higher prices for gasoline were the primary driver of the year-over-year acceleration in the CPI, as consumers paid 5.9% more for gasoline in March than they did in the same month the previous year. Prices surged 21.2% on a monthly basis, the largest price increase for gasoline on record, due to the supply shock resulting from the conflict in the Middle East, added the Ottawa-based agency.However, this monthly effect was muted on a year-over-year basis due to the comparison with prices from March 2025, which included the since-removed consumer carbon levy. The removal of the consumer carbon levy will no longer impact the 12-month movement as of April 2026, and this will be reflected in next month's CPI release.Prices for food purchased from stores rose 4.4% on a yearly basis in March, after increasing 4.1% in February.On a year-over-year basis, prices for fresh vegetables increased 7.8% in March, the largest increase since August 2023 (+8.7%), after rising 0.5% in February.The monthly and quarterly CPI reports, reported by StatsCan, measure the index level of prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services such as food, energy, vehicle, medical care, apparel, and housing. The core measure, which excludes food and energy due to their volatility, is closely watched by markets and the Bank of Canada as a sign of underlying inflation pressures.

Brief: Canada's CPI Excluding Gasoline at 2.2% in March Vs. 2.4% Y/Y in February

Brief: Canada's March CPI at 0.9% M/M Non-Seasonally Adjusted; at 0.5% M/M Seasonally Adjusted

Brief: Canada's CPI at 2.4% Y/Y in March; Scotiabank Says Consensus Saw at 2.6% Y/Y

Nasdaq 100 Futures and S&P Futures Both Down Near 0.4%

S&P Futures Down Near 0.45%

TSX Closer: The Index Rises For 11th Time In 13 Sessions As It Edges Back Towards Its Record Close

The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher on Friday, rising for the eleventh time in 13 sessions on Friday with it appearing to be a case of, as BMO's Douglas Porter put it in the headline of his weekly column, "All Quiet on the (Middle) Eastern Front?" as Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 294.06 points, or 0.85%, to close at 34,346.29. leaving it about 200 points off its record high, even with both commodity prices and sectors largely mixed. Not for the first time in the last week, Info Tech led gainers, up 1.85%, followed by Financials, up 1.5%, and then Industrials, up 1.2%. Decliners were led by Energy, down 4.9% as oil prices plunged following Iran's announcement.According to FactSet, the TSX going in to today up 3.92% month-to-date and up 2,339.47 points, or 7.38%, since the start of the year. It was off 1.42% from its 2026 closing high of 34,541.27 hit March 2.Within a technical analysis on global equity markets from Rosenberg Research, author Walter Murphy said in a commentary last month he had noted that Canada's TSX index had been probing Fibonacci resistance in the 33,851 area, the last point where the rally from last April's low is 1.618 times the earlier 2023-2025 uptrend. Five weeks later, the index is still probing 33,851. However, between then and now, the index fell to as low as 31,146 before recovering, Murphy said, before adding: that sell-off represented an almost 10% decline and carried the index to within view of 30,808 to 29,378 support.Underneath this price action, Murphy noted the weekly Coppock Curve continued to decline from its late-February secondary peak. "That is about to change," he said, and added: "There are indications that the oscillator has begun a bottoming process from above its neutral zero line that could continue into mid-May. Under that scenario, the Coppock indicator would likely be in a confirmed uptrend shortly thereafter."Murphy noted, 33,581 is "important Fibonacci resistance". He said under normal circumstances, March's 34,544 peak would be viewed as a decisive breakout. However, he added, the rapid decline to 31,146 means the TSX will have to prove itself again with a rally through March's high and that, in turn, would allow for further strength toward 35,842. "A possible move to 38,067 is stowed away in the cupboard (not yet on the stove's back burner)."March's 31,146 low is "key support", Murphy also noted, before saying "a breakdown will complete a top formation and allow for a deep test of 30,808-29,379."However, Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, noted equities are "putting the war in the rear-view mirror". He wrote: "The fact that the ceasefire is holding, a truce was reached in Lebanon, and reports are circulating that the U.S. may buy Iran's uranium -- a potentially elegant solution to two issues -- are buoying the markets. Even the U.S. blockade of Iran made only a fleeting mark on crude prices, with many viewing it as a short-term tactic which could hasten the end of the conflict. Iran further fueled the rally by declaring Friday the Strait is completely open to commercial ships, as long as the ceasefire holds (including no blockade)."Porter added: "While it's obviously premature to declare the war over, we can now better assess the economic damage, particularly with oil prices simmering down notably. The IMF weighed in this week with its previously scheduled semi-annual World Economic Outlook. While the tone was downbeat, or at best cautious, what was remarkable was how little the Fund changed its global growth outlook from its January update. Based on the main mild scenario, growth is expected to cool only slightly this year to 3.1%, from 3.4% in both its initial projection and for actual growth in 2025. The Fund noted that last year's growth rate ended up matching precisely the forecast at the start of 2025, as a variety of policy support measures offset the trade war impact -- clearly a lesson for assessing the impact of this year's war as well. We shaved our forecast for global growth a bit more than the IMF to 2.9% for this year, presumably based on a somewhat higher assumption for oil prices."Meanwhile, Porter in the same note said even with a tamer inflation outlook than, "well, just a week ago", markets are "stubbornly clinging" to the view that the Bank of Canada will hike rates later this year. Porter noted GoC yields nudged only slightly lower this week, and the market is still priced for one full hike in 2026. "True," he said, "that's down from almost three hikes just a few weeks ago, but it still looks heavy to us." Porter noted while the economy may have rebounded in February after a tough winter, GDP is up only 0.6% y/y and employment is up only 0.4% y/y, while housing remains in a deep slumber and trade uncertainty remains high as the USMCA review looms. "Our view thus continues to be that the best policy course for the Bank is to stand still, and if anything with an easing bias," he added.Of commodities today, West Texas Intermediate crude closed sharply lower after Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, freeing up tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf and ending a supply shock that sent prices to four-year highs. WTI crude oil for May delivery closed down US$10.84, or 11.5%, to settle at US$83.85 per barrel, while June Brent oil was down US$9.45 to US$89.94.Gold was higher by midafternoon Friday as Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, ending the largest ever energy supply shock and easing inflation fears. Gold for May delivery was up US$75.30 to US$4,883.60 per ounce.

National Bank On What It Will Be Watching For Next Week

National Bank noted the highlight of the week ahead will be the release of Consumer Price Index data for March on Monday. It said the surge in gasoline prices, a result of the conflict in the Middle East, will likely feed a 1.2% month-on-month rise in the headline index on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. This could cause the 12-month rate to rise from 1.8% to 2.6%, the highest level since February 2025. Core inflation could remain "more stable", with both CPI-median and CPI-trim likely holding steady at 2.3% on a 12-month basis, National Bank added.Another key event will be the release of the retail sales report for February, next Friday. Based on previously released car sales data, spending on motor vehicles and parts is expected to have contributed positively to the headline figure, as is spending at gasoline stations, which could have benefited from higher pump prices, National Bank said. All told, goods outlays could have increased by 0.9% in the second month of the year. Excluding automobiles, sales could also have increased, albeit at a slightly slower pace (+0.7%), it added.National Bank will also keep an eye on the release of the March Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) on Thursday and the Bank of Canada's first-quarter Business Outlook Survey (BOS) on Monday.