S&P/TSX Composite

TSX Closer: Index Down For a Third-Straight Session Ahead of Tomorrow's Spring Economic Update

The Toronto Stock Exchange closed lower for a third-straight session Monday, ahead of tomorrow's Spring Economic Update from the Carney government, as one Macquarie strategist warned the risk of adverse effects on the global economic supply chain will grow if the U.S.-Iran 'economic war' endures.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 85.92 points, or 0.25%, to 33,818.19, with most sectors lower, albeit none of them by as much as 1%.In contrast, Energy was up 2.3% with West Texas Intermediate crude oil closing higher Monday as talks expected to be held over the weekend between the United States and Iran in Pakistan did not happen, even as Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in return for it being allowed to continue its nuclear program and the U.S. ending the blockade of its ports. WTI oil for June delivery closed up US$1.97 to settle at US$96.37 per barrel, while June Brent oil was up $3.13 to US$108.46.Base Metals rose 0.4% even though gold prices were down by midafternoon Monday. They did remain rangebound as the dollar fell ahead of Wednesday's interest rate announcement from the Federal Reserve. Gold for June delivery was down US$42.60 to US$4,698.30 per ounce, staying within a US$200 range it has been stuck in since the start of the war on Iran, as high oil prices raise concerns over higher inflation and threaten to boost interest rates.Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie Group, expected traders to retreat from risk following the news on Saturday that a new round of face-to-face talks between the U.S. and Iran was not going to happen imminently. But, he said, an Axios report this morning restored some 'hope', by saying that Iran's side has put forward a new proposal to allow a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in the short term, while asking that the negotiation pertaining to Iran's nuclear ambitions is left for later."We doubt that the U.S. will go for this, since the US's economic blockade of the Iran remains its key "pressure tactic" in making Iran concede to the US's fundamental demands pertaining to Iran's power. Yet that it is Iran that is making the proposal suggests that the pressure from the US's economic blockade is being felt, and that the U.S. may not need to invoke its military power again. To the U.S. administration, the economic blockade of Iran is intended to have that very effect, i.e., of causing revenue losses that lead to monetary inflation and, ultimately, instability within the regime, and leading to concessions from Iran on the fundamental issues that the U.S. has raised," Wizman added.Wizman said while central banks are mindful of the inflation that supply side disruptions may cause, he added the central banks that meet this week (Fed, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan) and next week (Reserve Bank of Australia) are unlikely to change policy settings, although some may do so later this year. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to maintain its key benchmark interest rate steady on Wednesday.Still on the Canadian economy, CIBC in 'Thoughts on the Spring Economic Update' due out from the federal government tomorrow said Prime Minister Mark Carney made two important announcements this morning, including the introduction of a Canadian sovereign wealth fund, and suggesting tomorrow's update will showcase a better deficit profile across the forecast horizonAccording to CIBC, improvement for the current fiscal year reflects a better starting point, as already telegraphed by the Department of Finance in its most recent Fiscal Monitor, showing the FY25-26 deficit is tracking near C$26 billion as of the end of February, which compares to an initial full year projection of C$78 billion. CIBC noted March is typically a very big deficit month, reflecting tax payments. But, CIBC said, calibrating from prior years suggests the FY25-26 deficit is likely to come in some $15 billion to $20 billion lower than initially expected.For the current fiscal year, FY26-27, CIBC estimates an improvement between $5 billion to $10 billion. "But," it said, "that doesn't mean coupon supply is going to fall one-for-one". First, CIBC noted, there have already been new spending initiatives announced that will "eat" some of the "better starting point" to the current fiscal year. Second, it noted, non-budgetary transactions are tracking worse than expected. Third, it also noted, the SWF needs to be seeded with an initial endowment of $25 billion.

TSX Down 122 Points at Midday in Broad Decline

The Toronto Stock Exchange is down 122 points at midday with most sectors lower.Energy, up 1.8% is the best performer, led by gains in ARC Resources (ARX.TO) which has jumped 21% higher to $31.28 after announcing this morning it agreed to be acquired by Shell. Shareholders will receive $8.20 in cash and 0.40247 ordinary shares of Shell per ARC share.On the economic front, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Canada's first national sovereign wealth fund, the "Canada Strong Fund," at a press conference in Ottawa on Monday. The federal government will endow $25 billion into the fund, which Carney says will function as a "national savings and investment account designed to grow wealth for future generations of Canadians." A government statement said the fund will invest in projects in "clean and conventional energy, critical minerals, agriculture, and infrastructure." Investments will be conducted alongside the private sector.

Canada's Federal Government Announces First National Sovereign Wealth Fund

Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the nation's first national sovereign wealth fund, the 'Canada Strong Fund', at a press conference in Ottawa on Monday.The Liberal Party's majority federal government will endow $25 billion into the fund, one Carney says will function as a "national savings and investment account designed to grow wealth for future generations of Canadians." In remarks made during the announcement Carney noted Canada's economic relationship with the administration in the United States had changed, and "that's their right", and his government is responding to that in finding new ways of growing the domestic economy here without relying on its ties with its North American neighbour. "That is our imperative."

Canada PM Mark Carney Says 'Canada Strong Fund' Will Start With Initial Endowment of $25 Billion

Canada PM Mark Carney Says the U.S. Has Changed, "That's Their Right"; And "We Are Responding. That Is Our Imperative"

Canada PM Mark Carney Announcing New Public Investment Fund To Finance Major Projects

S&P Futures Now Up Less Than 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 Futures Up 0.2%

Nasdaq 100 Futures Up Less Thank 0.1%, S&P Futures Down Less Than 0.1%

S&P Futures Down Less Than 0.1%

TSX Closer: The Index Down Modestly For a Second Straight Session As Middle East War Casts a Shadow

The Toronto Stock Exchange posted a modest drop for a second-straight session Friday with BMO's Douglas Porter noting "as much as the equity market wants to move on from the [Middle East] conflict, a renewed spike in oil beckons if the U.S. and Iran can't soon reach some kind of arrangement on the Strait" amid reports the two sides will meet for talks in Pakistan this weekend.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 8.82 points at 33,904.11, with sectors mixed. The Battery Metals Index was the biggest loser, down 2.5%, while Health Care was the biggest gainer, up near 4%.Looking ahead, the key question for policymakers is whether the war on Iran can be resolved in time to avert another big step up in oil prices and "keep consumers on track", said BMO Capital Markets chief economist Porter in his weekly 'Talking Points' note. Porter wrote: "While the current stalemate in the Strait (of Hormuz) is not overly rattling oil, many analysts have noted that true physical shortages are poised to emerge very soon if the crude doesn't begin to flow from the Gulf. As much as the equity market wants to move on from the conflict, a renewed spike in oil beckons if the U.S. and Iran can't soon reach some kind of arrangement on the Strait. And even the AI boom may not be able to override another sharp run-up in energy costs."The Bank of Canada is expected to stay firmly on hold next week, so the "big debate" is whether Governor Macklem will "lean hawkishly" in his remarks, with the market still pricing in a hike later this year, noted Porter. He said this week "brought a couple of big strikes against the hawks". First, CPI was "nicely" below expectations in March at 2.4% y/y, and all measures of core came in "mild". That's three consecutive months of "decent" CPIs, with prices ex food, energy and taxes up at a mere 0.5% annual pace over that time. Second, the looming USMCA review surged back onto the front page, with some "heated rhetoric" on both sides, pointing to some turbulence ahead. Porter noted Canada's lead negotiator counselled calm, but businesses may heed that call to hold their nerve by also holding their spending. "With trade uncertainty still dragging heavily on Canada's economy, we continue to believe that the best course of action for the Bank is zero action," Porter said.National Bank published a BoC preview entitled 'Keep calm and look through inflation' in which it said the central bank is set to leave its overnight target unchanged at 2.25% on April 29, a decision widely expected by forecasters and OIS markets. This would mark the fourth consecutive hold after policymakers first declared in October that policy is at "about the right level" to keep inflation near target and support the economy's transition, National Bank noted.Traders have stripped out the three hikes that were "briefly" priced for 2026, but a tightening bias clearly remains, according to National Bank, which doesn't expect Governing Council to explicitly endorse this, instead reiterating that policy is appropriately calibrated. They will continue to look through the war's "immediate" impact on inflation while also assuring that they will not let higher energy prices spread or become persistent inflation, National Bank added.The BoC's statements will acknowledge weaker than expected growth and sluggish job market performance, National Bank said. On the other hand, it should concede that before the war, business confidence was improving even with the "layers of uncertainty" weighing on the economy, it added.Despite the surge in gasoline prices, recent inflation data has been "encouraging" as underlying price pressures continue to cool, National Bank noted. For now, soft core inflation supports looking through the headline CPI spike, the bank said. In an updated MPR, expect the all-items inflation outlook to be marked up reflecting higher gas prices, it added.However, revisions to core inflation projections should be minimal, National Bank said, adding the GDP growth profile is likely to be downgraded "modestly" with Q4 2025 performance weaker than expected, Q1 2026 tracking below earlier estimates and the labour market underwhelming. "The Bank may note that risks to growth are skewed lower and risks to inflation are skewed higher."Of commodities today, Energy was down 1.35% as West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell following reports that said Pakistani officials expect another round of peace talks between the United States and Iran. WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$1.45 to settle at US$94.40 per barrel, while June Brent oil was last seen up US$0.15 to US$105.22.Base Metals lost 0.6% even with gold steady as the dollar and yields eased on reports that Iran is ready to resume negotiations with the U.S to end their war. Gold for May delivery was up US$12.80 to US$4,76.80 per ounce.

TSX Flat at Midday With Most Sectors Higher

The Toronto Stock Exchange is little changed at midday with most sectors higher.The best performers are healthcare (+2.8%) and financials (+0.5%).Limiting gains are losses in energy (-1.8%) and telecoms (-1.1%).On the economic front, focus was on the release of Canadian retail sales data for February, and a March advance figure. CIBC said the 0.7% increase in headline sales during February missed the consensus forecast and advance estimate (0.9%), but built on a marginally upwardly revised 1.2% gain in the prior month. Core sales (ex autos and gasoline) rose by 0.6%, while overall sales volumes increased by 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, sales volumes were up by 2.3% in February, which would represent a solid increase in per-capita terms as well given the stall in population growth seen over the past year.The advance estimate for March pointed to a "solid-looking" 0.6% increase in overall sales, although the sharp rise in gasoline prices during the month will flatten that nominal figure, CIBC adds. Goods prices rose by more than 1% after seasonal adjustment within the March CPI figures, so the advance estimate for retail sales could represent a broadly flat move, or even a slight decline, in volume terms, the bank said."Overall," CIBC said, "it appears that retail sales in Q1 have posted their best quarter for growth since before US trade tensions started to negatively impact consumer sentiment. However, with higher pump prices limiting the ability of some households to make discretionary purchases, we expect consumer spending to slow again in volume terms during Q2. That slowing in spending should limit the spread of inflationary pressures to other areas of the economy, enabling the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates on hold through 2026."Following today's release, the Desjardins Q1 GDP tracking remains broadly in line with the BoC's January MPR estimates. Desjardins continues to expect the central bank to remain on the sidelines as it waits for more clarity.National Bank said as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, households will face an erosion in purchasing power in the coming months. This, combined with a mortgage interest-payment shock and a still fragile labour market, could weigh on discretionary spending going forward, it added.In company news, Enbridge (ENB.TO) said Friday morning the Federal government approved its Sunrise natural gas pipeline expansion project in British Columbia.

Canada Budgetary Surplus For February Down YoY, While Deficit For April 2025 to February 2026 Widened

Canada's budgetary surplus for February declined from the year-prior month, while the deficit for the April 2025 to February 2026 period was wider, the Department of Finance said Friday ahead of the spring economic update coming next Tuesday.There was a budgetary surplus of $5.7 billion in February, down from a surplus of $7.6 billion in February 2025, the department said in its latest Fiscal Monitor.The budgetary surplus before net actuarial losses and gains was $6.1 billion, compared to a surplus of$7.9 billion in the same period of 2024-25, it added. The department noted the budgetary balance before net actuarial losses and gains is intended to supplement the traditional budgetary balance and improve the transparency of the government's financial reporting by isolating the impact of the amortization of net actuarial losses and gains arising from the revaluation of the government's pension and other employee future benefit plans.Compared to February 2025, revenues fell by $2.8 billion, or 5.5%, largely reflecting lower corporate income-tax revenue and lower pollution-pricing proceeds to be returned to Canadians. These drops were partially offset by higher other revenues, the Fiscal Monitor said. Program expenses excluding net actuarial losses were down $1.1 billion, or 2.8%, as a decrease related to the timing of major transfers to provinces, territories and municipalities was partly offset by higher major transfers to persons and direct program expenses.For the April 2025 to February 2026 period, the government posted a budgetary deficit of $25.5 billion, compared to a deficit of $19.3 billion reported for the same period of 2024-25. Revenue rose by $3.4 billion, or 0.8%, "largely reflecting increases in customs import duties due to the countermeasures imposed in response to U.S. tariffs, personal and corporate income tax revenues, and other revenues", the government said.However program expenses excluding actuarial losses rose by $8.8% in the 2025/26 period "mainly reflectingincreases in major transfers to persons and direct program expenses, offset in part by the wind-down of theCanada Carbon Rebate".

TSX Down Near 130 Pts, Adding to 40-plus Pts Lost Thursday

S&P Futures Now Up 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 Futures Up 1.3% After Pakistan Officials Say a Second Round of US-Iran Talks Are Expected

Nasdaq 100 Futures Up Near 0.8%, Boosted By Intel Earnings and Chip Stocks; S&P Futures Flat

S&P Futures Flat

TSX Closer: Index Down As News of U.S. Reclassification Fails To Keep Fire Burning Under Cannabis Stocks

The Toronto Stock Exchange edged lower on Thursday as news of the U.S. reclassification of cannabis initially lit up cannabis stocks, but failed to keep a fire burning as investors realized full legalization of the sector will require further legislative action.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 42.18 points to 33,912.93, only its fourth loss in 17 sessions, as investors also took profits after a recent run of winning days, while geopolitical tensions and uncertainty around the Iran war continue to cast a shadow over the outlook for markets.Sectors were mixed, but the two biggest movers were Health Care, down 7.7% and Info Tech, down 4.5%. The Battery Metals Index was up 4%.Within the health sector, cannabis firms lost early gains Thursday as investors at first welcomed news the Department of Justice was "immediately rescheduling FDA-approved marijuana and state-licensed marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III", but after some more inspection seemed to conclude the move fell short of full legalization.Aurora Cannabis (ACB.TO) was down 14%, Canopy Growth (WEED.TO) fell 13%, Cronos Group (CRON.TO) was down 8% and Tilray Brands (TLRY.TO) lost 13%.BNN Bloomberg spoke with Pablo Zuanic, managing partner at Zuanic & Associates, about the implications for cannabis companies, investors and the broader industry. Among key takeaways, BNN noted the change reduces tax burdens by allowing companies to deduct operating expenses, improving cash flow, while expanded research and federal registration for operators are expected to support industry development. But, BNN also noted, cannabis remains federally illegal, and interstate trade and exports are still restricted. The move is seen as a step toward broader reform, but full legalization would require further legislative action.Of commodities, the Energy sector was up near 1.8% as West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher with the United States and Iran making little progress to end a war that has produced the largest-ever supply shock with shipments from the Persian Gulf region barred from the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil for June delivery closed up US$2.89 to settle at US$95.85 per barrel, while June Brent oil was up US$3.07 to US$104.98.Base Metals lost near 3.2% as gold fell, remaining rangebound amid concerns high oil prices will push up inflation and force hikes to interest rates. Gold for June delivery was down US$34.00 to US$4,719.00 per ounce.

TSX up 6 Points at Midday, But With Most Sectors Lower

The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 6 points at midday, with most sectors lower.The biggest decliners are healthcare (-5.0%) likely on some profit taking, and info tech, down 3.5%.Industrials and utilities, up 2.2% and 1.4% respectively, are the best performers.The U.S. Department of Justice has officially reclassified cannabis as less dangerous, moving licensed medical marijuana from Schedule I - which includes the most restricted drugs such as heroin and ecstasy - to Schedule III, the same category as some prescription medicines.Reuters reports that cannabis firms will no longer be subject to Section 280E, a provision of the U.S. federal tax that prevents businesses dealing in Schedule I- and II-controlled substances from claiming tax credits and deductions for business expenses.For its part, Tilray Brands (TLRY.TO), down 5.3%, says it is "positioned" for expansion in the U.S. as federal policy opens the door to rescheduling of cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III.

Nasdaq 100 Futures and S&P Futures Both Down Near 0.6%

TSX Closer: The Index Recovers From Tuesday's Slump, Boosted By Higher Commodity Prices and Cannabis Stocks

The Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday recovered from its day-prior slump, boosted by cannabis stocks and higher commodity prices, even as National Bank said the positive impact of commodities on the real economy is expected to be limited.The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 146.81 points, or 0.4%, to 33,955.11, after losing near 550 points on Tuesday, only its third loss in the last 16 sessions.Most sectors were higher, led by Health Care, up 6.6%, amid reports the U.S. Justice Department will ease restrictions around the cannabis market this week. Among individual related stocks, Curaleaf (CURA.TO) jumped 25%.Among other sectors, Base Metals was up 3.7% and Telecom up 2.75%. The Battery Metals Index was down 5.8%.National Bank published its Monthly Economic Monitor on Economics and Strategy report entitled 'Can the commodities boom revitalize the economy?'. National Bank noted the commodity price surge is bolstering terms of trade, public finances, and corporate profits in Canada's resource sector. "But its positive impact on the real economy is expected to be limited, it said, before adding: "Despite a sharp rise in energy and commodity prices, the resource sector, which is not labour-intensive and faces a lack of incentives to invest, is unlikely to generate many jobs, while weakness persists in other sectors, including manufacturing."At the same time, the bank said, consumers face several headwinds, including inflation that is set to rise temporarily and a downturn in the housing market is exacerbated by population decline, which is resulting in a negative wealth effect.The bank added: "The slowdown in immigration is limiting economic growth in 2026, which is expected to come in at 1.0%, a pace sufficient for the labour market to improve somewhat by the end of the year. A relatively smooth renegotiation of CUSMA is necessary for such an improvement to materialize."Of commodities today, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose after the United States extended a ceasefire with Iran while continuing to blockade the country's ports, and as Iran attacked ships in the Persian Gulf while rejecting talks with the U.S. until the blockade is lifted. WTI crude oil for June delivery closed up US$3.29 to settle at US$92.96 per barrel, while June Brent oil was last seen up US$3.65 to US$102.13.Gold traded higher on Wednesday following two losing sessions after the United States extended a ceasefire related to its war on Iran. Gold for June delivery was up US$35.70 to US$4,755.30 per ounce.