National Bank noted the highlight of the week ahead will be the release of Consumer Price Index data for March on Monday. It said the surge in gasoline prices, a result of the conflict in the Middle East, will likely feed a 1.2% month-on-month rise in the headline index on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. This could cause the 12-month rate to rise from 1.8% to 2.6%, the highest level since February 2025. Core inflation could remain "more stable", with both CPI-median and CPI-trim likely holding steady at 2.3% on a 12-month basis, National Bank added.
Another key event will be the release of the retail sales report for February, next Friday. Based on previously released car sales data, spending on motor vehicles and parts is expected to have contributed positively to the headline figure, as is spending at gasoline stations, which could have benefited from higher pump prices, National Bank said. All told, goods outlays could have increased by 0.9% in the second month of the year. Excluding automobiles, sales could also have increased, albeit at a slightly slower pace (+0.7%), it added.
National Bank will also keep an eye on the release of the March Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) on Thursday and the Bank of Canada's first-quarter Business Outlook Survey (BOS) on Monday.