FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

TSX Flat at Midday With Most Sectors Higher

-- The Toronto Stock Exchange is little changed at midday with most sectors higher.

The best performers are healthcare (+2.8%) and financials (+0.5%).

Limiting gains are losses in energy (-1.8%) and telecoms (-1.1%).

On the economic front, focus was on the release of Canadian retail sales data for February, and a March advance figure. CIBC said the 0.7% increase in headline sales during February missed the consensus forecast and advance estimate (0.9%), but built on a marginally upwardly revised 1.2% gain in the prior month. Core sales (ex autos and gasoline) rose by 0.6%, while overall sales volumes increased by 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, sales volumes were up by 2.3% in February, which would represent a solid increase in per-capita terms as well given the stall in population growth seen over the past year.

The advance estimate for March pointed to a "solid-looking" 0.6% increase in overall sales, although the sharp rise in gasoline prices during the month will flatten that nominal figure, CIBC adds. Goods prices rose by more than 1% after seasonal adjustment within the March CPI figures, so the advance estimate for retail sales could represent a broadly flat move, or even a slight decline, in volume terms, the bank said.

"Overall," CIBC said, "it appears that retail sales in Q1 have posted their best quarter for growth since before US trade tensions started to negatively impact consumer sentiment. However, with higher pump prices limiting the ability of some households to make discretionary purchases, we expect consumer spending to slow again in volume terms during Q2. That slowing in spending should limit the spread of inflationary pressures to other areas of the economy, enabling the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates on hold through 2026."

Following today's release, the Desjardins Q1 GDP tracking remains broadly in line with the BoC's January MPR estimates. Desjardins continues to expect the central bank to remain on the sidelines as it waits for more clarity.

National Bank said as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, households will face an erosion in purchasing power in the coming months. This, combined with a mortgage interest-payment shock and a still fragile labour market, could weigh on discretionary spending going forward, it added.

In company news, Enbridge (ENB.TO) said Friday morning the Federal government approved its Sunrise natural gas pipeline expansion project in British Columbia.

Related Articles

Research

Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Buy Opinion On Shares Of The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We trim our 12-month target price by $8 to $155, valuing HIG shares at 11.3x our 2026 operating EPS estimate of $13.75 (cut by $0.45) and at 10.6x our 2027 EPS estimate of $14.65 (cut by $0.30), vs. the shares' one-year average forward multiple of 10.3x and peer average of 13x. Q1 EPS of $3.09 vs. $2.20 a year ago missed our $3.60 estimate and $3.39 consensus view. Operating revenue growth of 6.2% was in line with our 6%-10% forecast, amid 5.3% earned premium growth, 13% higher net investment income, and 7.9% fee revenue growth. Q1 written premium growth of 4% and full-year 2025 growth of 7% bode well for 2026 revenue trends as premiums are earned. Underwriting results improved significantly, with Personal Lines combined ratio improving to 87.7% from 106.1% and underlying combined ratio to 85.0% from 89.7%. Business Insurance combined ratio was stable at 94.8%. Weighing the Q1 EPS miss with HIG's decent top-line growth and discounted valuation to peers, we view the shares as undervalued.

$HIG
Research

Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Strong Buy Opinion On Shares Of Baker Hughes

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We raise our 12-month target price by $14 to $82, reflecting a combination of our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) and DCF models. For our SOTP model, we presume the oilfield services business (about 50% of BKR's franchise) to be valued at about 10x projected 2027 EBITDA (in line with major peers) and its industrial energy technology business (the other 50%) valued at 14x projected 2027 EBITDA (in line with the peer median). This blended approach, yielding a 12x multiple, implies a value of $73 per share. Meanwhile, our DCF model, using medium-term free cash flow growth of 5% per year, terminal growth of 2.5%, discounted at a WACC of 6.3%, yields intrinsic value of $91 per share. We cut our 2026 EPS estimate by $0.47 to $2.48, but we raise 2027's by $0.07 to $3.24. We acknowledge that the oilfield services business is likely to struggle in 2026 owing to the U.S.-Iran conflict, but the IET business appears quite robust and likely to be a source of both accelerating revenue growth and margins.

$BKR
Research

Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold Opinion In Shares Of Wab

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We lift our 12-month target to $285 from $275 following WAB's Q1 earnings print, valuing shares at 24.2x our 2027 EPS outlook of $11.76 (revised from $11.46; 2026 EPS estimate up to $10.57 from $10.50), a slight premium to WAB's long-term historical multiple average given structural improvements in earnings quality. While we are cautious on signs of overcapacity in the freight market, an elevated order backlog (12-month sits at over $9 billion), internal initiatives to shore up margins, and potential synergies from M&A activity positions WAB to continue growing earnings at double-digit rates in 2026-2027, in our view. Despite tariff-related cost pressures, WAB has done a commendable job of defending margins via a mix of pricing, lean manufacturing, and pruning of lower-profit operations. Q1 results were mixed but overall positive, in our view. We maintain our Hold recommendation on shares.

$WAB