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International

US-Iran Ceasefire Hopes Lift European Bourses Midday

European bourses tracked higher midday Friday as traders weighed reports that US and Iran ceasefire negotiators will meet in Islamabad on Saturday.Bank and tech stocks led gains on continental trading floors, while oil shares lagged.Front-month North Sea Brent crude-oil futures were up 0.1% at $96.05 a barrel.Investors also eyed flat Wall Street futures amid higher closes overnight on Asian exchanges.In other news, European airports could face jet-fuel shortages if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened in three weeks, Financial Times reported, citing a Airports Council International letter to the European Union.The pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 Index was up 0.8% mid-session.The Stoxx Europe 600 Technology Index was up 1.3%, and the Stoxx 600 Banks Index rose 1.8%.The Stoxx Europe 600 Oil and Gas Index eased 0.8%, while the Stoxx 600 Europe Food and Beverage Index edged 0.9% higher.The REITE, a European REIT index, gained 0.3%.On the national market indexes, Germany's DAX was up 0.7%, and the FTSE 100 in London gained 0.4%. The CAC 40 in Paris was up 0.8%, and Spain's IBEX 35 lifted 0.7%.Yields on benchmark 10-year German bonds were higher, near 3.03%.The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index was down 4.6% at 22.47, but still indicating above-average volatility for European stock markets in the next 30 days, a negative signal. A reading above 20 indicates choppier markets ahead, while below 20 suggests calmer exchanges.

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US Markets

German Inflation Hits Two-year High in March as Middle East War Fuels Energy Price Surge

The annual inflation rate in Germany accelerated in March 2026, marking its highest level since January 2024, largely driven by soaring energy prices due to the ongoing war in the Middle East.The German consumer price index climbed to 2.7% in March from 1.9% in February, in line with the provisional estimate, final data from the country's Federal Statistical Office showed Friday. On a monthly basis, consumer prices matched the initial reading of a 1.1% increase, compared with the previous 0.2% uptick.Energy product prices jumped 7.2% year over year, indicating the first time energy prices increased on an annual basis since December 2023, with motor fuel and heating oil prices surging 20% and 44.4%, respectively, as a result of the war.On the services front, prices rose 3.2%, while the prices of food and goods were respectively 0.9% and 2.3% higher, aligning with the overall inflation rate. The annual core inflation, which excludes food and energy, stood at 2.5%.Meanwhile, the annual harmonized inflation rate increased to 2.8% from 2%. Month over month, harmonized consumer prices were 1.2% higher, compared with the previous 0.4% gain. The statistical office confirmed the preliminary readings for both.Looking ahead, ING expects headline inflation in Germany to further increase, remaining between 3% and 4% for most of 2026."All in all, today's German inflation data shows that, for the time being, the new inflation wave stemming from the war in the Middle East is 'only' an energy price shock. Any [European Central Bank] reaction to this new price shock will clearly depend on whether soaring energy prices will find their way into the rest of the economy or not," the research firm said in a March 30 note. "Needless to say that a broadening of inflationary pressures and a de-anchoring of inflation expectations could trigger an ECB rate hike. For now, however - at the risk of using a forbidden word, at least at the ECB - the energy price shock falls under the label of 'transitory'."

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International

Eurozone's Monthly Services Output Rises 1.2% in January

The euro area's seasonally adjusted services production rose 1.2% month over month in January, after zero growth in the previous month, according to Eurostat data published Friday.On a yearly basis, the eurozone's services output was 1.5% higher, against the 0.5% gain earlier.

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International

Correction: German Annual Inflation Confirmed at 2.7% in March

(Corrects month in the headline)Confirming the flash estimate, Germany's annual inflation rate increased to 2.7% in March from 1.9% in February, final data from the country's Federal Statistical Office showed Friday.On a monthly basis, consumer prices were up 1.1%, matching the preliminary reading and against the previous 0.2% uptick.The annual harmonized inflation rate for March was also confirmed at 2.8%, compared with 2% earlier. Meanwhile, harmonized consumer prices were affirmed to be 1.2% higher month over month, against the previous reading of a 0.4% gain.

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Asia Markets

Persian Gulf Uncertainty Damps European Bourses Midday

European bourses tracked moderately lower midday Thursday as traders weighed Persian Gulf hostilities, rising oil prices, and an uncertain Strait of Hormuz opening.Oil stocks led gains on continental trading floors, while bank and tech shares lagged.Investors also eyed Wall Street futures in the red, and lower closes overnight on Asian exchanges.In other news, the US and Iranians are set for direct negotiations in Pakistan over the weekend, reported Turkey's Anadolu Agency, citing officials in Islamabad.The pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 Index was off 0.7% mid-session.The Stoxx Europe 600 Technology Index was down 1.7%, and the Stoxx 600 Banks Index lost 0.6%.The Stoxx Europe 600 Oil and Gas Index rose 1.2%, while the Stoxx 600 Europe Food and Beverage Index declined 0.8%.The REITE, a European REIT index, fell 0.7%.On the national market indexes, Germany's DAX was down 1.3%, and the FTSE 100 in London lost 0.4%. The CAC 40 in Paris was down 0.9%, and Spain's IBEX 35 eased 0.8%.Yields on benchmark 10-year German bonds were higher, near 2.98%.Front-month North Sea Brent crude-oil futures were up 4.1% at $98.63 a barrel.The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index was up 1.2% at 25.01, indicating above-average volatility for European stock markets in the next 30 days, a negative signal. A reading above 20 indicates choppier markets ahead, while below 20 suggests calmer exchanges.

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US Markets

Germany's Manufacturing Production Contracts in February on Lower Pharmaceuticals, Electronics Output

Production in Germany's manufacturing sector unexpectedly declined month over month in February, even before the war in the Middle East began, as output from the pharmaceuticals and electronics industries weakened, provisional data from the Federal Statistical Office showed Thursday.Real, price-adjusted manufacturing output dropped 0.3% in February, after seasonal and calendar changes, compared with the upwardly revised stagnation in January. The consensus estimate for February was a 0.9% rise.On a monthly basis, production of pharmaceuticals and computer, electronic, and optical products contracted 4.4% and 3.9%, respectively. Amid the cold winter weather, construction output slipped 1.2%, while automotive production improved 1.7%. Destatis data paints a picture of a "very reluctant, hesitant consumer," while the manufacturing sector struggles to gain positive momentum, said Carsten Brzeski, the global head of macro at ING.Annually, German manufacturing output after calendar adjustment was stable, against the revised 0.9% decrease in January. Excluding energy and construction, industrial production in February slipped 0.1% on the month and 0.6% on the year.In energy-intensive industries, which account for 17% of industrial gross value, production expanded 1.9% month over month and 0.1% on a yearly basis. Consumer goods production fell 1.5% sequentially, while the output of intermediate goods and capital goods rose by 0.4% and 0.1%, respectively. Germany, one of Europe's largest net importers of energy, clocked a 0.3% monthly gain in energy production in February."All in all, February's macro data shows that even without the war in the Middle East, the German economy was unfortunately on track for yet another quarter of contraction. To make things worse, the war in the Middle East, no matter how sustainable yesterday's announced ceasefire will prove to be, will leave clear marks on the German economy over the next few months. As much as we were hoping to finally comment on some good economic news from Germany, it is a bit like waiting for a German train these days: definitely delayed and uncertain whether it will ever arrive," Brzeski concluded.

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