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STOXX Europe 600

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Hit fresh record highs after Tehran and Washington said the Strait of Hormuz would reopen as part of peace negotiations.

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International

BofA: European Central Bank to Hold Key Rates in July Meeting; One Final Hike Likely in September

BofA Global Research expect the European Central Bank to leave its key interest rates on hold at its Thursday monetary policy meeting, which is forecast to be an "uneventful" one for the euro."With no large surprises in data and energy prices no far from the ECB's baseline forecasts, there is not a big enough sense of urgency to move policy rates now. Our strong conviction here is that, irrespective of whether the ECB hikes once or twice this year, policy rates at the end of 2027 will be 2% at most," analysts said in a Monday preview note. "Why? We still think inflation will prove a lot less persistent than feared. The shape of the current energy price shock is nowhere near that of 2022."The research firm continues to anticipate the ECB to make one final 25 basis-point increase in rates in September as energy prices rose again recently amid renewed hostilities between Iran and the US."We still refrain from expressing these views with an outright long position in the front-end. Risks of further escalation in the US-Iran war, higher oil and/or gas prices, and a market positioning that is likely still long the EUR front-end all make us cautious," BofA added.

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International

Eurozone's Monthly Construction Output Up 0.4% in May

The euro area's seasonally adjusted construction production rose 0.4% month over month in May, following a revised 0.1% growth in April, according to Eurostat data published Monday.On a yearly basis, the eurozone's construction output grew 1.2%, against the revised 0.2% increase earlier.

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International

German Annual Producer Prices Up 1.8% in June

The producer prices of industrial products in Germany increased 1.8% year over year in June, following a 2.2% growth in May, the country's Federal Statistical Office said Monday.On a monthly basis, producer prices were 0.3% lower, against the expected 0.2% dip.

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International

Deutsche Bank Expects a July Rate Hold from ECB Amid Energy Price Volatility

Deutsche Bank Research forecasts the European Central Bank will hold its rates steady on Thursday, despite ongoing energy price uncertainty stemming from the reignited Middle East tensions."Despite these fluctuations, a pause in July is expected. Current oil prices remain below 11 June levels, and the June HICP inflation data, which came in softer than expected, cast some doubt on the rapid emergence of indirect inflation. Furthermore, our June dbDIG survey indicated a complete unwinding of the initial energy shock's impact on household inflation expectations. Waiting until September will provide the ECB with two additional HICP prints and updated staff forecasts, enabling a more informed decision," the research firm said in July 17 preview note, adding it expects the central bank to maintain "neutral communications" with a hawkish stance on inflation.The euro area's annual inflation eased to 2.8% in June from 3.2% a month ago, according to final data from Eurostat. The eurozone's annual core rate, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, stood at 2.4%, below May's 2.6%.Conversely, analysts forecast a "second and final" rate hike in September to 2.50%, with the "measured tightening" bringing the rates to the top end of the neutral range. The research firm said the move will be justified by core inflation forecasts remaining high alongside volatile energy concerns and persistent expectations of indirect inflation effects."Despite initial fears of tightening credit conditions due to geopolitical uncertainty, actual credit data has shown no such effect. By feeding the resilience of growth, this reduces ECB apprehension about further rate increases," the note said. Deutsche Bank expects euro area headline inflation to decline from 2.8% in 2026 to 2.3% in 2027, while core inflation is expected to ease slightly from 2.5% to 2.4% over the same period.

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Equities

EU Commission Launches Revamped Carbon Trading Scheme, New Electrification Plan

The European Commission on Friday launched a comprehensive Electrification Action Plan, intended to lower the European Union's annual fossil fuel import costs by 260 billion euros, as well as an overhaul of the bloc's Emissions Trading System to ease pressure on industries affected by the region's clean energy transition.The Commission will review a new indicative electrification target of 46% by 2040, up from the 23% rate that has "stalled" over the past decade, in a move linked to a reform of the ETS carbon market. The proposal also seeks to address the price gap between electricity and fossil energy costs, fast-track grid deployment and reduce upfront tech costs, among others.To fund this transition, the Commission proposed an Industrial Decarbonisation Bank with 100 billion euros in funding to support large-scale industrial decarbonization.The review will also ease immediate regulatory pressure on industries by slowing the rate of carbon cap reductions through 2040 and extending free carbon allowances for relevant sectors to 2038. A separate proposal also aims to increase free allocation of 6 billion euros in carbon allowances to industry for 2026 to 2030.

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Asia Markets

Tech Jitters, Persian Gulf Turmoil Blunt European Bourses Midday

European bourses tracked moderately lower midday Friday as traders backed away from tech issues, and weighed ongoing hostilities in the Persian Gulf.Bank shares also lagged, while oil stocks led gains on continental trading floors.Front-month North Sea Brent crude-oil futures were up 2% at $85.89 a barrel, midday.Investors additionally eyed Wall Street futures flashing red, and largely lower closes overnight on Asian exchanges, on a semiconductor-sector retreat.In economic news, the Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.8% on year June, cooling from a 3.2% gain logged in May, reported Eurostat. In the broader European Union, the CPI rose 2.9% on year in June, easing from 3.3% in May.The pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 Index was off 0.6% mid-session.The Stoxx Europe 600 Technology Index was down 2.4%, and the Stoxx 600 Banks Index lost 1.5%.The Stoxx Europe 600 Oil and Gas Index rose 0.6%, while the Stoxx 600 Europe Food and Beverage Index inclined 0.3%.The REITE, a European REIT index, rose 0.4%.On the national market indexes, Germany's DAX was down 0.7%, and the FTSE 100 in London lost 0.1%. The CAC 40 in Paris was down 0.9%, and Spain's IBEX 35 eased 0.4%.Yields on benchmark 10-year German bonds were lower, near 3.12%.The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index was up 5.6% at 17.49, but still indicating below-average volatility for European stock markets in the next 30 days, a positive signal. A reading above 20 indicates choppier markets ahead, while below 20 suggests calmer exchanges.

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International

Eurozone's Annual Inflation Rate Confirmed at 2.8% in June

Annual inflation in the euro area fell to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May, according to final data from Eurostat published Friday.The final reading is consistent with the flash estimate.On a monthly basis, consumer prices were 0.1% lower, matching the preliminary reading.Excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, the annual inflation rate came in at 2.4%, in line with the initial reading and below the previous month's 2.6%. Month over month, core consumer prices were 0.2% higher, matching the preliminary estimate.

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International

Italian Current Account Surplus Drops in May

Italy's current account surplus dropped to 594 million euros in May from a revised surplus of 2.55 billion euros in the prior month.In the 12 months to May, the Italian current account surplus totaled 31.2 billion euros, against 18.4 billion euros in the previous year, according to data from the Bank of Italy published Friday.

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International

Eurozone Current Account Surplus Rises in May

The euro area's seasonally adjusted current account surplus increased to 25 billion euros in May from the revised 17 billion euros in the previous month, European Central Bank data showed Friday.The consensus estimate for the month stood at 18.1 billion euros.In the 12 months to May, the bloc's current account surplus totaled 272 billion euros, against 318 billion euros a year earlier.

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International

Italy's Annual Construction Output Rises 2.9% in May

Italy's calendar-adjusted construction output index increased 2.9% year over year in May, following a revised 3.2% growth previously, statistics agency Istat said Friday.On a monthly basis, Italy's seasonally adjusted construction output held steady, against the revised 0.8% gain earlier.

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Asia Markets

Oil, Tech Woes, Earnings Pressure European Bourses Midday

European bourses tracked moderately lower midday Thursday as traders weighed Persian Gulf turmoil, tech valuations and awaited earnings-season results.Oil and tech stocks led declines on continental trading floors, while bank shares inched higher.Investors also eyed Wall Street futures in the red, and largely lower closes overnight on Asian exchanges, in a chip-sector retreat.In economic news, UK gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.1% in May, said the Office for National Statistics. On a quarterly basis, the UK economy is estimated to have expanded by 0.7% in the three months to May.The pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 Index was off 0.6% mid-session.The Stoxx Europe 600 Technology Index was down 0.8%, but the Stoxx 600 Banks Index gained 0.1%.The Stoxx Europe 600 Oil and Gas Index eased 0.9%, while the Stoxx 600 Europe Food and Beverage Index declined 0.2%.The REITE, a European REIT index, fell 0.4%.On the national market indexes, Germany's DAX was down 0.8%, and the FTSE 100 in London lost 0.3%. The CAC 40 in Paris was down 0.8%, and Spain's IBEX 35 eased 0.6%.Yields on benchmark 10-year German bonds were higher, near 3.14%.Front-month North Sea Brent crude-oil futures were down 0.3% at $84.66 a barrel.The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index was down 0.5% at 17.34, indicating below-average volatility for European stock markets in the next 30 days, a positive signal. A reading above 20 indicates choppier markets ahead, while below 20 suggests calmer exchanges.

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International

Italian Trade Surplus Rises in May

Italy recorded a trade surplus of 4.79 billion euros in May, up from the revised surplus of 4.42 billion euros in April, according to data from statistics agency Istat published Thursday.Analysts expected a trade surplus of 4.83 billion euros for the month.Seasonally adjusted exports edged up 0.2% month over month, while imports rose 1.5%.

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International

Eurozone Trade Deficit Down in May

The euro area recorded a trade deficit of 7.8 billion euros in May, down from the revised deficit of 1.2 billion euros in the previous month, according to Eurostat data published Thursday.The consensus estimate for the month was a deficit of 2.8 billion euros.Exports of goods to the rest of the world climbed 0.1% year over year to 243.6 billion euros, while imports rose 10% to 251.4 billion euros.

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International

Italian Annual Inflation Rate Confirmed at 3% in June

As expected, Italy's annual inflation rate fell to 3% in June from 3.2% in May, final data from statistics agency Istat showed Thursday.On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat, matching the flash figure, and against the prior 0.4% increase.The Italian harmonized inflation rate stood at 3% on an annual basis, compared with the preliminary reading of 3.1% and the previous 3.2%. Month over month, harmonized consumer price growth stalled, against the initial estimate of a 0.1% rise and the 0.3% gain earlier.

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Asia Markets

Higher Oil Prices, Interest Rates Cap European Bourses Midday

European bourses tracked marginally lower midday Wednesday as traders weighed rising oil prices and interest rates, and ongoing hostilities in the Persian Gulf.Tech stocks led gains on continental trading floors, after ASML (ASML) the giant Dutch maker of semiconductor-manufacturing equipment, reported record Q2 earnings and raised guidance.Food and property shares lagged.Yields on benchmark 10-year German bonds edged up near 3.11%, striking a fresh 15-year high.Front-month North Sea Brent crude-oil futures were up 0.7% at $85.31 a barrel midday.Investors also eyed Wall Street futures in the green, and higher closes overnight on Asian exchanges.In economic news, seasonally adjusted industrial production decreased by 0.2% in May from April in the Eurozone, and by 0.1% in the broader European Union (EU), Eurostat reported. On the year, industrial output declined by 1.2% in the euro area in May, and by 0.3% in the EU.The pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 Index was off 0.1% mid-session.The Stoxx Europe 600 Technology Index was up 0.9%, but the Stoxx 600 Banks Index lost 0.3%.The Stoxx Europe 600 Oil and Gas Index eased 0.3%, while the Stoxx 600 Europe Food and Beverage Index declined 0.7%.The REITE, a European REIT index, fell 0.5%.On the national market indexes, Germany's DAX was down 0.8%, and the FTSE 100 in London lost 0.3%. The CAC 40 in Paris was down 0.3%, and Spain's IBEX 35 fell 0.8%.The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index was down 1.3% at 17.43, indicating below-average volatility for European stock markets in the next 30 days, a positive signal. A reading above 20 indicates choppier markets ahead, while below 20 suggests calmer exchanges.

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International

Eurozone Monthly Industrial Production Down 0.2% in May

The euro area's industrial production fell 0.2% month over month in May, after a revised 0.3% increase in April, Eurostat data showed Wednesday.The consensus estimate for the month was a 0.3% gain.On a yearly basis, industrial production recorded a 1.2% drop, compared with the revised 0.4% growth earlier and the expected 0.5% decline.

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International

Spanish Annual Inflation Rate Confirmed at 3.2% in June

Spain's annual inflation held steady at 3.2% in June for a third consecutive month, final data from the National Statistics Institute confirmed Wednesday.On a monthly basis, consumer prices in Spain were up 0.6%, in line with the initial reading and against the previous 0.1% uptick.The Spanish annual harmonized inflation rate remained unchanged at 3.6%, matching the flash figure. Month over month, harmonized consumer prices grew 0.6%, in line with the initial data and compared with the 0.1% gain earlier.Meanwhile, the country's annual core inflation rate edged down to 2.9% from 3%, meeting the flash figure.

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Equities

EU Eyes Delay to Penalties on Fossil Fuel Imports that Fail to Meet Methane Emissions Rules

The European Commission plans to temporarily delay the implementation of penalties on fossil fuel imports that fail to meet the European Union's methane emissions rules, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.Céline Gauer, the commissions directorate-general for energy, told the European Parliament's industry committee that the bloc will present two recommendations to encourage member states not to impose fines "for a certain period of time" to let the market adjust amid the current energy crisis due to the Middle East conflict.Gauer said the commission hopes to unveil the guidelines next week, the news outlet noted.

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Equities

Market Chatter: EU Reportedly Fails to Approve Sanctions Package Against Russia

The European Union failed to adopt the 21st sanctions package against Russia following contention on three main points, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.The main disagreements were reportedly over restrictions on the transport of Russian liquefied natural gas, measures affecting Austria's Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI.VI), and a proposal to keep the price cap on Russian crude until January 2027.The European Commission did not immediately respond to a request for comment from.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Asia Markets

Persian Gulf Turmoil, Higher Bond Yields Damp European Bourses Midday

European bourses tracked lower midday Tuesday as traders weighed fresh hostilities in the Persian Gulf, higher crude prices, and rising bond yields.Oil stocks led gains on continental trading floors, while bank, tech and property shares lagged.Front-month North Sea Brent crude-oil futures were up 3.5% at $86.19 a barrel in midday action.Yields on benchmark 10-year German bonds were higher, near 3.09% and testing 15-year highs.Investors also eyed mixed Wall Street futures, but higher closes overnight on Asian exchanges on a tech-sector recovery, and following strong June international trade reports from Beijing.In economic news, the UK's main problem is economic growth, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey testified to the Treasury Select Committee of the Parliament. The renewed Persian Gulf hostilities could exacerbate inflation and financial instabilities, added Bailey.The pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 Index was off 0.4% mid-session.The Stoxx Europe 600 Technology Index was down 1.1%, and the Stoxx 600 Banks Index lost 0.8%.The Stoxx Europe 600 Oil and Gas Index rose 1.1%, while the Stoxx 600 Europe Food and Beverage Index declined 0.5%.The REITE, a European REIT index, fell 1%.On the national market indexes, Germany's DAX was down 0.7%, and the FTSE 100 in London lost 0.2%. The CAC 40 in Paris was down 0.7%, and Spain's IBEX 35 eased 1%.The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index was up 5.6% at 18.64, indicating below-average volatility for European stock markets in the next 30 days, a positive signal. A reading above 20 indicates choppier markets ahead, while below 20 suggests calmer exchanges.

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