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RBNZ Press Conference: Unemployment Numbers in Line With What RBNZ Expected From a Financial Stability Perspective

RBNZ Expects Slower Recovery for New Zealand Economy Amid Middle East Conflict Despite Resilient Financial System

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand expects New Zealand's economic recovery to be slower due to the Middle East conflict reducing profits for businesses as a result of higher oil prices, causing them to invest less and households to save more, according to the central bank's financial stability report published on Wednesday.The bank noted that business deposits have declined as a share of gross domestic product over the past three years, particularly for smaller firms, suggesting that businesses do not have the same cash buffers now.Financial markets have become more volatile due to the Middle East conflict, RBNZ said. While New Zealand banks are well funded and have the flexibility to manage short-term disruptions, this volatility could interact with other vulnerabilities and result in a more significant tightening in financial conditions internationally, the central bank added.RBNZ said New Zealand's four largest banks would maintain capital buffers even in a stress scenario where the unemployment rate peaks at 10.5%, gross domestic product declines by 6.5%, and house prices fall by 35%.The central bank said it will release a crisis preparedness consultation package in June, including additional loss-absorbing capital requirements, which would provide a key source of resilience if a scenario worse than the 2025 stress test eventuated.The Depositor Compensation Scheme, which became operational in July 2025 and provides a government-backed guarantee for deposits up to NZ$100,000 if a deposit taker fails, has boosted deposit growth for finance companies, enabling them to reduce term deposit rates to only slightly above what banks are offering, the report added.The housing market generally remains soft, with elevated inventories weighing on house prices, particularly in Auckland and Wellington, with prices around the top of the RBNZ's estimated sustainable range, although rising mortgage rates could reduce house prices further, and growth in mortgage lending has been subdued, the report added.The performance of insurers has been mixed, with health insurers adapting to higher claims costs partly by raising premiums, while dwelling and general insurers have benefited from fewer large claims events, although impacts on claims costs and supply chain disruptions from the Middle East conflict could affect general insurers, who account for about 60% of premiums, RBNZ added.

New Zealand's Jobless Rate Falls in March Quarter

New Zealand's seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in the March quarter from 5.4% in the December 2025 quarter, data from Stats NZ showed on Wednesday.The seasonally-adjusted number of unemployed people for the quarter was 163,000, down from 165,000 for the December 2025 quarter.The underutilization rate was unchanged at nearly 13% in the quarter, while the participation rate slid 70.4% from 70.5% in the December 2025 quarter.The seasonally-adjusted employment rate was flat at about 67%.The seasonally adjusted youth not in employment, education, or training (NEET) rate rose to over 14% in the March quarter, up from over 13% in the December 2025 quarter."Women aged 20 to 24 continue to have the highest NEET rate, rising 1.9 percentage points to 20.3% in the March quarter," labor market spokesperson Abby Johnston said.

New Zealand's Jobless Rate at 5.3% in March Quarter Versus 5.4% in December 2025 Quarter, Employment Rate at About 67%

Quantity Sold at GDT Auction Nearly Reaches 14,000 Metric Tonnes

A total of 13,743 metric tonnes (MT) of products were sold during the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction held on Tuesday, with supply ranging from 13,068 to 17,289 MT, according to data from the trading platform.The average selling price for whole milk powder was $3,741 per MT, anhydrous milk fat averaged $6,461 per MT, and mozzarella and butter averaged at $4,010 per MT and $5,525 per MT, respectively.Additionally, cheddar prices averaged $4,611 per MT, lactose averaged $1,522 per MT, and skim milk powder and butter milk powder averaged at $3,547 per MT and $3,467 per MT, respectively.

New Zealand Shares Fall; Fletcher Building Flags Ongoing Residential Review, Asset Sales Underway

New Zealand shares ended lower on Tuesday as most Asian indexes saw losses amid fresh attacks exchanged between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.The S&P/NZX 50 Index fell 0.47% or 61.98 points to close at 13,035.70.The US and Iran exchanged fresh strikes across the Gulf on Monday, vying for control of the Strait of Hormuz with rival maritime blockades and rattling an already fragile truce, according to a Monday Reuters report.Meanwhile, New Zealand signed an agreement with Singapore on Monday to keep supply chains open between the countries during times of crisis, according to a Monday Reuters report.In domestic news, the ANZ World Commodity Price Index fell 0.8% month over month in April, with dairy prices in a period of high volatility, particularly butter and anhydrous milk fat, according to a report from ANZ Research.Further, overall card spending fell 2.5% in April, but was up 4.4% compared with the same time last year, ANZ Research said in a note.In corporate news, Fletcher Building (ASX:FBU, NZE:FBU) acknowledged recent media reports about its ongoing strategic review of the residential and development division, including speculation around a potential industrial property sale, but declined to provide further comment.Synlait Milk (ASX:SM1, NZE:SML) obtained two waivers in relation to its syndicated loan facilities, as external challenges continue to strain the company's financial performance.

ANZ Commodity Price Index Declines in April

The ANZ World Commodity Price Index fell 0.8% month over month in April, with dairy prices in a period of high volatility, particularly butter and anhydrous milk fat, according to a Tuesday report from ANZ Research.Dairy prices fell 3.8% sequentially during the month and 7.5% year over year, reflecting strong global supply. The global supply outlook suggests a downward price bias that was temporarily interrupted by the conflict in the Middle East.Meanwhile, the meat and fiber index rose just 0.2% from March. Beef prices fell slightly, but lamb and wool prices rose. A seasonal increase in New Zealand supply put a slight pressure on local prices, but strong demand has kept overseas prices elevated.The horticulture index was flat in April, with the first large shipments of apples and gold kiwifruit just now reaching overseas markets.The forestry index jumped 7.1% in April and was up 9.2% year over year, partially reflecting the higher production and transportation costs.Aluminum prices jumped 6.3% month over month to a record high, and soared roughly 51% year over year. A large aluminum smelter in the United Arab Emirates was damaged in March, tightening global supplies. The Middle East accounts for around 8% to 9% of global production.

Overall Card Spending in New Zealand Down 2.5% in April, ANZ Says

Overall card spending fell 2.5% in April, but was up 4.4% compared with the same time last year, ANZ Research said in a note Tuesday.Spending at fuel, charging, and service stations lifted 0.9% in April on top of a nearly 21% lift in March. Card spending at fuel stations rose 0.3% in April, once adjusted for typical seasonality.Spending at car and truck dealerships fell 7.9% after the March spike in electric vehicle sales, but motorcycle and bike shops were up 0.8% and 1.9%, respectively.Spending in the hospitality sector retreated 0.2% in the month. This followed a 2.7% fall in March. Apparel category spending fell a further 1.5% in April on top of a 2.5% decline in March.A decline of 1.4% in spend in the grocery category is unusually large, the report noted.Spending at second-hand good stores fell 3.3% on top of a 3.2% fall last month. The data showed an over 19% fall in spending at airlines and airports in April, and a more than 32% fall at tour and travel agencies.Most services also saw reduced spending in April, including a 2.8% month-over-month fall in health and beauty services and a 1.9% fall in hairdressing. Public transport spending fell 7% after a sharp jump in March, but was up 5.7% year over year.

NZX Midday Sector Update: Electronic Technology Advances, Technology Services Decline

Electronic technology shares gained the most on New Zealand's Exchange, rising nearly 3% by midday Tuesday.Shares of ikeGPS Group (NZE:IKE, ASX:IKE) rose almost 7% in recent trade.On the flip side, the technology services sector struggled, shedding more than 14%.Shares of Gentrack Group (NZE:GTK, ASX:GTK) fell past 30% in recent trade.The company on Tuesday said it now expects fiscal year 2026 revenue of between NZ$229 million and NZ$238 million, lower than its previous guidance.

Asia Week Ahead: PMI Reports; Central Bank Decisions; and Inflation Prints

For the week ahead in Asia, the economic calendar is packed with S&P Global's monthly purchasing managers' index reports, inflation prints, and central bank decisions across the region.Monday brings a slate of S&P Global manufacturing PMI reports for April, alongside Indonesia's inflation and trade figures.On Tuesday, markets will turn to the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision, while Thailand and the Philippines release April inflation data.Wednesday features South Korea's April inflation print and New Zealand's first-quarter labor-market report, along with PMI readings from India, China, Hong Kong and Singapore.On Thursday, Malaysia's central bank decision will be in focus, alongside Taiwan's April inflation data and the Philippines' first-quarter GDP report.On Friday, Taiwan's April trade data and Malaysia's March industrial production figures will be due, before China closes out the week with April trade figures on Saturday.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, May 4The week kicked off with a slate of S&P Global purchasing managers' index reports covering manufacturing activity during April.Most economies in the region saw a rise in output despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East which has pushed oil prices upwards.Malaysia's manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in four years in April, supported by stronger output and a return to growth in new orders.The S&P Global Malaysia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51.6 in April from 50.7 in March, marking a second straight month of expansion.Output grew at the fastest pace since December 2021, while new orders increased as firms and clients built safety stocks amid uncertainty linked to the Middle East war.Output activity also expanded in South Korea, India, and Taiwan, according to S&P Global.Meanwhile, Vietnam's manufacturing sector also expanded, albeit at a slower pace.The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.5 in April from 51.2 in March, a seven-month low, signalling a tenth straight month of expansion but only marginal growth.In contrast, Indonesia's manufacturing sector slipped into contraction in April as cost pressures intensified due to material shortages and delays linked to the Middle East conflict.The S&P Global Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 49.1 in April from 50.1 in March, dropping below the 50 mark for the first time in nine months.Manufacturing activity similarly slipped in the Philippines as new orders fell sharply and cost pressures intensified.Indonesia released inflation figures, noting a 2.4% year on year rise in prices during April -- slower than the 3.5% recorded a month prior.The island state also booked a trade surplus of $5.55 billion in the first quarter, supported by a strong non-oil and gas balance despite higher import growth, according to official data released by Statistics Indonesia.The Melbourne Institute released its monthly inflation gauge, noting another increase in April, mainly driven by higher recreation-related prices. The monthly cost of living also increased in April, especially for employees and self-funded retirees.TUESDAY, May 5An interest rate decision in Australia will capture headlines on Tuesday.The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to rate hikes by 25 basis points to 4.35% as persistent inflation pressures and rising fuel costs linked to Middle East supply disruptions keeps the central bank on a hawkish path even as global peers hold steady.Thailand and the Philippines will release inflation data for April.Economists at ING said they expect the Philippines' headline inflation to rise above 5% as the government passes on the impact of higher global oil prices onto consumers. The Philippines' inflation climbed to 4.1% in March.Thailand is similarly expected to see a rise in consumer prices during April. According to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics, headline inflation could clock in at 1.7% on an annual basis, compared with a 0.08% decline in March.First-quarter gross domestic growth data will be due in Indonesia. DBS said it was forecasting 5.6% growth for the quarter thanks to government spending and festive spending during the period, the Wall Street Journal reported.Hong Kong will similarly release its first-quarter advance GDP growth estimate on Tuesday.Meanwhile, March retail sales figures will be expected in Singapore.On the activity front, S&P Global will release PMI reports manufacturing activity in Thailand and services and composite activity in Australia.WEDNESDAY, May 6Another inflation print, this time in South Korea.Economists at ING said they expect consumer prices to rise at a faster pace in April despite attempts by Seoul to rein in the impact of rising oil costs on consumers. A consensus compiled by Trading Economics indicated headline inflation could clock in at 2.6%.In March, South Korea's annual inflation rose to 2.2%, breaching the central bank's 2% target.First-quarter labor data from New Zealand will also be in the news.CommBank expects headline labor-market figures to remain weak, forecasting just 0.1% quarterly employment growth and a rise in unemployment to 5.5%, compared with Trading Economics consensus estimates of 0.3% employment growth and a 5.4% jobless rate for the first quarter."We do not envisage a labor market recovery until 2027, reflective of adverse impacts from geopolitical ructions," CommBank said in a preview.The Philippines will similarly release labor data for March, as well as industrial production figures.ING said it expects unemployment to edge higher. "On the industry side, weak soft construction activity should continue to weigh on growth," ING said.Additional S&P Global PMI reports covering services and composite activity in India and China, as well as overall activity in Hong Kong and Singapore, will be due.A business confidence report will be due in Thailand, while Hong Kong's March retail sales figures will also be on display.THURSDAY, May 7Malaysia's central bank will meet for its interest rate decision, with no change expected in the 2.75% policy rate.RHB Bank said it expects Bank Negara Malaysia to hold rates as growth remains steady and inflation remains in check, the Wall Street Journal reported.Taiwan's April inflation print will be due, with analysts looking for signs on how the Iran war was weighing in on prices. ING said it expects to see inflationary pressure picking up after limited pass through of energy prices in March.Australia will release March trade figures. The country's trade surplus could fall to A$4.45 billion from the A$5.69 billion recorded in the month prior, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.CommBank said it expects the goods trade balance to decline due to rising fuel imports in the wake of the Iran conflict.The Philippines' first-quarter GDP growth figures will be expected. ING said the Philippines' economy could recover to a growth of 4.3% year on year thanks to favorable base effects and some pick-up in government spending.The Philippines' economy grew by 3% last quarter.Another confidence report covering consumer sentiment will be due in Thailand.FRIDAY, May 8Markets will be on the lookout for Taiwan's trade data for April.ING said it expects the island state's trade surplus to rise to $21.6 billion from $21.3 billion in the month prior. "We're looking for another strong month, with 59.3% YoY export growth and 35.5% import growth," ING said in a preview.In Malaysia, March industrial production figures will be due.S&P Global will release PMI reports covering services and composite activity in Japan.SATURDAY, May 9China will release its April trade data on Saturday.The world's second largest economy could record a surplus of $82.4 billion for the month, rising from $51.13 billion in March, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.Analysts at DBS expect a sharp uptick in surplus, with export growth more than doubling to 8.4% from the 2.5% rise seen in March, the WSJ reported.

New Zealand Shares Rise; a2 Milk Co. Recalls US Infant Formula Batches After Toxin Detection

New Zealand shares ended higher on Monday as most Asian indexes saw gains amid hopes of an easing US-Iran war.The S&P/NZX 50 Index rose 0.45% or 58.48 points to close at 13,097.68.US President Donald Trump on Sunday said that the US would begin efforts Monday morning to help free ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, describing the move as a humanitarian step to assist neutral countries amid the US-Israeli war with Iran, according to a Sunday Reuters report.In corporate news, a2 Milk Co. (ASX:A2M, NZE:ATM) started a voluntary recall on May 1 of three batches of its a2 Platinum USA infant milk formula, following the detection of cereulide in product manufactured by Synlait Milk (ASX:SM1, NZE:SML).Air New Zealand (ASX:AIZ, NZE:AIR) group capacity rose 4.1% year on year in March, and long-haul available seat kilometers (ASKs) rose 2.5%, while domestic ASKs increased by 3.4%.

NZX Midday Sector Update: Industrial Services Stocks Rise, Consumer Non-Durables Decline

Industrial services gained the most among New Zealand sectors on Monday, advancing almost 2%.Ventia Services Group (NZE:VNT, ASX:VNT) gained nearly 2% in recent trade.Meanwhile, the consumer non-durables sector declined by almost 7%.a2 Milk Company (NZE:ATM, ASX:A2M) was down past 14% in recent trade.The company on Monday said it started a voluntary recall on May 1 of three batches of its a2 Platinum USA infant milk formula, following the detection of cereulide in product manufactured by Synlait Milk (NZE:SML, ASX:SM1).

ADB Pledges $70 Billion For Energy, Digital Networks Across APAC as Middle East Conflict Batters Outlook

The Asian Development Bank is committing $70 billion to support new energy and digital infrastructure initiatives across the Asia-Pacific region by 2035.ADB President Masato Kanda announced the pledge on Sunday during the lender's annual meeting in Uzbekistan."Energy and digital access will define the region's future," said Kanda. "These two initiatives build the systems Asia and the Pacific need to grow, compete, and connect. By linking power grids and digital networks across borders, we can lower costs, expand opportunity, and bring reliable power and digital access to hundreds of millions of people."The pledge comes as the ADB sharply downgraded its forecast for the APAC region, citing energy disruptions from the ongoing Middle East conflict.On Wednesday, the ADB slashed its GDP growth outlook for developing Asia and the Pacific to 4.7% in 2026 from the previous 5.1% forecast.Inflation for 2026 is projected to accelerate to 5.2% in 2026 from 3% in 2025, before easing to 4.1% in 2027."Our revised outlook is a significant downward revision for growth and a sharp increase in inflation following a special update to reflect the deepening crisis," Kanda said at the time.The bank's new outlook assumes that oil prices average around $96 a barrel in 2026, well above the $69 per barrel average in January and February before the Middle East conflict. The bank expects oil prices to ease to around $80 per barrel in 2027."We are confronting systemic, long-lasting disruptions to global energy and trade networks, not just temporary volatility. ADB will remain an agile partner in protecting the region's economy; tracking fast-moving risks, and moving with urgency to scale up our support," Kanda added.Diesel prices across several Southeast Asian countries have increased by more than 100% since late February, the ADB said in its updated outlook report.The ADB also noted in its Wednesday report that the energy shock is also affecting fertilizer prices, which it said could add to food inflation, particularly for economies most dependent on Middle East imports.Against that backdrop, the ADB is committing $70 billion to build new energy and digital infrastructure in Asia and the Pacific by 2035.The largest investment, worth $50 billion, will be allocated towards cross-border power infrastructure to unlock renewable energy at scale, the ADB said.The project will focus on transmission and grid integration, including cross-border lines, substations, storage, and grid digitalization, according to the lender.By 2035, the bank aims to integrate about 20 gigawatts of renewable energy across borders, connect 22,000 circuit-kilometers of transmission lines, and cut regional power sector emissions by 15%, while improving energy access for around 200 million people.The remaining $20 billion will fund the Asia-Pacific Digital Highway, targeting digital corridors, data infrastructure, and AI-ready economies.The project aims to bring first-time broadband access to 200 million people and cut connectivity costs in remote and landlocked areas by about 40%.The South Korean government will back a new Center for AI Innovation and Development in Seoul with a $20 million contribution. The center will aim to train about 3 million people in digital and AI-related skills by 2035.Separately on Sunday, the ADB also unveiled a Critical Minerals-to-Manufacturing Financing Partnership Facility designed to help the region move beyond mining into higher-value industries such as processing, manufacturing, and recycling.Japan committed $20 million to the grant window, the UK contributed $1.6 million, and the Korea Eximbank and the Korean Trade Insurance Corporation each signed $500 million memorandums as the facility's first partners.

New Zealand's Building Sector Sees Rising Headwinds Despite Lift in Planned Building Work, Says Westpac

Westpac said that while the amount of planned building work has lifted, headwinds in New Zealand's building sector are mounting, according to a Friday report by the bank.The bank said the Middle East conflict has resulted in a sharp rise in fuel costs and related increases in materials costs in the construction sector, with some increases described as substantial, while uncertainty and upward pressure on borrowing costs have also risen as inflation pressures have increased.Westpac said developers are likely to be cautious about initiating new projects given sluggish price growth and the broader headwinds, with the recent uplift in activity potentially giving way to renewed softness later in the year. However, a lift in consent numbers over the past year is expected to see building activity trend higher over the next few months.

New Zealand Consumer Credit Demand Softened in Recent Weeks But Remains Higher Year Over Year, Centrix Says

Consumer credit demand in New Zealand softened in recent weeks with enquiry volumes easing, but it remained up 1.3% year over year, Centrix said in a new report.Mortgage enquiries are up more than 11%, auto loan demand is up over 8%, and personal loan enquiries ticked nearly 8% higher. But on the flip side, credit card demand is down past 17%, and retail energy enquiries have fallen more than 28%.Consumer arrears declined again in March to hit the lowest level since September 2023, although the picture is not uniformly positive as there are still 95,000 consumers who are past 90 days overdue on payments, according to the report.In terms of sectors, agriculture continues to perform well, but there is weakness across the services economy, and hospitality also remains vulnerable, Centrix said.The firm noted that there is a broad expectation among economists and business leaders that the full impact of higher fuel prices has not yet filtered through to credit indicators.

New Zealand Property Listings See 7.3% Annual Rise in April

New Zealand total new property listings rose 7.3% year-on-year to 9,139 in April, while the national average asking price rose 2.2% to NZ$869,023 and total stock increased 3.9% to 37,334, according to data published by realestate.co.nz on Friday.The report said 7,853 properties sold in March, the highest total since November 2021, with Canterbury and Southland both recording all-time average asking price highs.Canterbury's average asking price reached NZ$735,798, up 3.8% on April last year and surpassing the region's previous high of NZ$735,383 set in March 2022, while Southland recorded an average asking price of NZ$617,879, up 17.9% year-on-year and the first time the region reached the NZ$600,000 bracket, the data added.Auckland led new listings growth with a 23.1% rise to 3,422, followed by Bay of Plenty up 10.6% to 617 and Otago up 10.3% to 321, while Marlborough was the only region to record a double-digit decline in average asking price, down 10.1% to NZ$707,013, the data added.Three regions recorded double-digit declines in new listings, with Central North Island down 15.1%, Northland down 14%, and Southland down 10.6% year-on-year, the report showed.

New Zealand Shares Rise; Contact Energy Chair to Retire

New Zealand shares ended higher on Friday as most Asian shares saw gains after a Thursday Wall Street rally.The S&P/NZX 50 Index rose 1.05% or 135.89 points to close at 13,039.20.On Thursday, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.9%, the S&P rose 1%, and the Dow Jones climbed 1.6%.Wall Street gains were helped by tech giant Apple's earnings as the iPhone-maker reported fiscal second-quarter results above Wall Street's estimates, with iPhone revenue coming in stronger than expected.In domestic news, Consumer confidence in New Zealand fell to its lowest in roughly three years in April, as a looming oil shock raised concerns about the broader economic outlook and downside risk for retailers, ANZ said.Further, home values across New Zealand extended a third consecutive monthly rise in April, in a slight surprise, edging up 0.1%, despite a soft start to the year for sales volumes and the Middle East conflict weighing on global economies, property valuation firm Cotality saidAlso, New Zealand's seasonally adjusted new dwellings consents fell 1.3% to 3,370 in March from 3,412 in the previous month, according to Stats NZ data.Meanwhile, New listings up 7.3% year-on-year to 9,139 in April in New Zealand, according to data from realstate.co.nz.In corporate news, Contact Energy (ASX:CEN, NZE:CEN) said Chair Rob McDonald will retire at the conclusion of the upcoming annual shareholder meeting.KMD Brands (ASX:KMD, NZE:KMD) appointed Non-Executive Director Philip Bowman as chair, effective Friday, succeeding David Kirk.

NZX Midday Sector Update: Consumer Durables Sector Soars, Energy Minerals Struggle

The consumer durables shares gained the most on New Zealand's Exchange, rising past 3% on Friday.Shares of KMD Brands (NZE:KMD, ASX:KMD) rose over 3% in recent trade.The company on Friday said it appointed Non-Executive Director Philip Bowman as chair, effective Friday, succeeding David Kirk.Meanwhile, the energy minerals sector fell below 1%.Shares of Channel Infrastructure (NZE:CHI, ASX:CHI) drove the decline, falling past 1% in recent trade.

New Zealand's Seasonally Adjusted New Dwelling Consents Fall in March

New Zealand's seasonally adjusted new dwellings consents fell 1.3% to 3,370 in March from 3,412 in the previous month, according to Stats NZ data on Friday.In actual terms, 3,677 new dwellings were consented, including 1,729 stand-alone houses, 1,556 townhouses, flats, and units, 127 retirement village units, and 265 apartments.New dwellings consented in the reported month rose 8.2% in actual terms compared with 3,398 in March 2025.In the 12 months ended March, the actual number of new dwellings consented was up 11% to 37,813 compared with the prior corresponding period."New home consents increased in the year ended March, following decreases in each of the previous three years," economic indicators spokesperson Michelle Feyen said.The regions with the highest increase in new home consents in the year ended March were Auckland, up 14%, Waikato, up 3.5%, and Wellington, up 3.8%.The annual value of non-residential building work consented in March rose 1.2% year-on-year to NZ$9 billion.

New Zealand Home Values Extend Third Monthly Upward Streak in April, Says Cotality

Property values across New Zealand extended a third consecutive monthly rise in April, in a slight surprise, edging up 0.1%, despite a soft start to the year for sales volumes and the Middle East conflict weighing on global economies, property valuation firm Cotality said Friday.According to the Cotality NZ's latest Home Value Index, the national median value of $809,101 in April notched up 0.6% from January but remained nearly 17% below the peak seen in 2022.Growth remains uneven across the country, with major cities Auckland and Wellington still witnessing minor declines of 0.1%. In contrast, house prices in Dunedin and Hamilton rose 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively."The bottom line is that the housing market broadly remains in a holding pattern, with buyers enjoying current conditions - or at least those that are secure in their jobs," said ‍Kelvin Davidson, Cotality NZ Chief Property Economist.The central bank is watching closely for any signs of second-round price effects from the Middle East conflict, particularly in wage demands or raised inflation expectations, amid a growing view that it may raise the Official Cash Rate as soon as July.Nevertheless, it would not be a surprise for mortgage rates to gradually rise, with modest house price increases flattening or even reversing, Davidson added.