New Zealand's agriculture sector is performing "incredibly well" despite developments overseas, as farmgate prices for beef, lamb, mutton, and wool currently stand at or near record levels, ANZ said in a new report.
Dairy prices have remained strong for two consecutive seasons, with both the end of the last season and the beginning of the new season looking positive even in the face of robust global milk production. Meanwhile, the wine, forestry, and grains sectors are still struggling to some extent due to oversupply, low prices, and elevated production costs.
ANZ warned, however, that the picture remains volatile, with the possibility of conflict reigniting in the Middle East and the US government again advancing a tariff agenda. Additionally, a 'super' El Niño weather pattern is expected to develop in the second half of the year, which will likely have a negative impact on pasture growth.
"As things stand, the worst of the oil shock seems to be behind us, even though the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed," the bank said. "But even if a resolution was to be found soon there will still be slow-rolling shockwaves washing up on rural New Zealand's shores for at least the next year."
Higher fuel and fertilizer prices, elevated borrowing costs, and logistical challenges are among the most pressing issues facing the country's agriculture industry, according to the report.