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International

New Zealand Consumer Confidence Nears Three-Year Low as Oil Shock Weighs, Says ANZ Research

Consumer confidence in New Zealand fell to its lowest read in roughly three years in April, as a looming oil shock raised concerns about the broader economic outlook and downside risk for retailers, ANZ Research said Friday.The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index declined 11 points to 80.3 in April from 91.3 in March. The index has also dropped 20 points over the past two months since the Middle East conflict began and pushed up global fuel prices.Expectations for inflation rose by about another full percentage point to 6.6%. The net proportion of households considering it "a good time to buy a major household item" slid 11 points to negative 25, the lowest since September 2024.The firm said it is too soon for the oil shock to have had a meaningful impact on household incomes, and that the decline instead reflects rising cost of living, with a growing wariness among retailers about the future activity levels.However, consumer confidence, now at levels seen in 2022 and 2023, is "clearly hurting" as higher petrol prices dent weekly budgets.While consumer inflation expectations are not the central bank's main focus, as they don't directly influence price setting, the gap between consumer inflation expectations of 6.6% and firms' wage expectations of 2.5% is widening, it added.

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Asia

New Zealand Shares Rise; Synlait Milk Chief Quality Officer Resigns

New Zealand shares rose on Thursday despite a broad-based fall in Asian shares amid fears that the US may strike Iran again.The S&P/NZX 50 Index rose 1.05% or 133.01 points to close at 12,903.31.US President Donald Trump is scheduled to receive a briefing on Thursday from CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper on new plans for possible military action against Iran, Axios reported on Thursday, citing two sources familiar with the matter.In domestic news, New Zealand's total lending edged higher in March, driven by a rise in housing and agricultural loans, even as personal consumer and business lending declined, according to data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.Further, business confidence in New Zealand turned negative in April, falling to minus 10.6 from 32.5 in the previous month, as inflation indicators continued to trend higher, ANZ Research said.Meanwhile, small businesses in New Zealand are pacing a slow recovery and building on the improvements seen in the second half of last year, with a 3.9% rise in sales in the March quarter, as mounting fuel shock risks remain uncertain, Xero said.In corporate news, Synlait Milk (ASX:SM1, NZE:SML) said that Chief Quality Officer Hila Mory has resigned, effective July 31.T&G Global (NZE:TGG) said it is in talks to sell its New Zealand fresh produce operations to founder J & P Turner and its Fijian and Pacific businesses to Bidfood to focus on its Apples and VentureFruit platforms.

^NZ50ASX:SM1NZE:SMLNZE:TGG
International

New Zealand Total Lending Rises in March

New Zealand's total lending edged higher in March, driven by a rise in housing and agricultural loans, even as personal consumer and business lending declined, according to data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand released on Thursday.Total housing loans from registered banks and non-bank lending institutions in New Zealand grew to NZ$395.64 billion in March from NZ$393.61 billion in February. Total personal consumer lending fell to NZ$14.54 billion in March from NZ$14.66 billion in the previous month.Total business lending decreased to NZ$142.66 billion in the period, from NZ$142.76 billion. Meanwhile, agricultural lending climbed to NZ$63.63 billion in March, from NZ$63.39 billion in the previous month.

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International

Business Confidence in New Zealand Turns Negative in April, ANZ Says

Business confidence in New Zealand turned negative in April, falling to minus 10.6 from 32.5 in the previous month, as inflation indicators continued to trend higher, ANZ Research said in a Thursday report."Firms are understandably concerned about the outlook for their activity and profitability in the face of this significant cost shock," the research firm said, adding that it remains a "very challenging time" to run a business.However, the negative 10.6 reading is higher than the minus 22.5 average seen in late-March responses, indicating that at least some of the initial confidence shock has waned.Inflation expectations rose to 3.8% in April from 3.1% in March, but pricing intentions did not rise any further, which should be somewhat reassuring for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, ANZ Research said.Reported past activity, the best indicator of GDP in the survey, was steady in April.

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Asia

NZX Midday Sector Update: Consumer Durables Sector Soars, Non-Energy Minerals Decline

Shares of the consumer durables sector gained the most on New Zealand's Exchange, rising past 3% on Thursday.Shares of KMD Brands (NZE:KMD, ASX:KMD) rose over 3% in recent trade.Meanwhile, non-energy minerals shares fell 1%.Fletcher Building (NZE:FBU, ASX:FBU) was down nearly 1% in recent trade.

^NZ50ASX:FBUASX:KMDNZE:FBUNZE:KMD
International

New Zealand Small Businesses Continue Slow Recovery, Says Xero

Small businesses in New Zealand are pacing a slow recovery and building on the improvements seen in the second half of last year, with a 3.9% rise in sales in the March quarter, as mounting fuel shock risks remain uncertain, Xero said Thursday.According to Xero Small Business Insights (XSBI) data, an uptick in jobs signals that small business owners are starting to feel a bit more confident about the sustainability of the sales recovery. However, this confidence is likely to be tested in the coming months in light of high fuel prices triggered by the Middle East conflict.The latest consumer price index, which rose 3.1% in the March quarter, did not reflect a broad-based rise in inflation and suggests XSBI sales growth is an indicator of "genuine improvement in activity" rather than being driven by higher prices, the firm added.Sales grew across industries, with other services and retail trade leading the gains, climbing 5.4% and 5.1% in the quarter, respectively.The external shock from increased fuel prices and concerns regarding fuel availability comes at a time when the economy is continuing to build, and hurts small businesses directly through rising costs and reduced customer spending on non-fuel goods and services.The firm said current fuel stocks in the fuel-import-dependent country are "sufficient" and advised small businesses to buy fuel as normal.

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Asia

New Zealand Shares Flat; Taiko Critical Minerals Secures Nearly NZ$8 Million in Capital Raise

New Zealand shares ended flat and Asian shares were mixed on Wednesday after a sell-off on Wall Street as US-Iran peace talks continue to stall.The S&P/NZX 50 Index was little changed to close at 12,770.30.On Tuesday, the S&P fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq lost 0.9%, and the Dow Jones decreased 0.05%.The United Arab Emirates will leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Friday, in a move that Rystad Energy said makes the cartel "structurally weaker."In domestic news, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman said New Zealand cannot avoid being "buffeted" by global forces stemming from the Middle East conflict, with the impact to be felt differently across sectors, regions, and households, according to a statement.Further, house prices in New Zealand rose 0.8% in the three months to March, but are forecast to fall by 2% over 2026, ANZ saidAlso, New Zealand saw NZ$54.7 million wiped from property asking prices in the first quarter as sellers priced at levels closer to what buyers expect to pay, according to a Wednesday report from realestate.co.nz.Meanwhile, total new residential mortgage lending in New Zealand rose to NZ$9.5 billion in March from NZ$6.64 billion in February, according to data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand released on Wednesday.Finally, New Zealand's first-quarter unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 5.4%, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 5.5%, according to a report by ANZ released on Wednesday.In corporate news, Taiko Critical Minerals (NZE:TCM) reported strong progress in the March quarter, securing NZ$7.9 million through a rights issue and shortfall placement.Rua Bioscience (NZE:RUA) said the Australian market has experienced "significant contraction" in medical cannabis prescribing volumes amid a Therapeutic Goods Administration review of the safety of unapproved products.

^NZ50NZE:RUANZE:TCM
International

New Zealand House Prices Forecast to Decline by 2% Over 2026, ANZ Says

House prices in New Zealand rose 0.8% in the three months to March, but are forecast to fall by 2% over 2026, ANZ said in a report on Wednesday.Prices in the South Island continued to trend higher, with local economies bolstered by growth in agriculture and tourism. The Auckland and Wellington markets also saw prices rise slightly from their low points a few months ago. ANZ said this was likely due to an economic recovery underway and the interest rates being set at a low level.The New Zealand housing market was showing signs of strengthening before the conflict in the Middle East. However, the resultant fuel price shock has weakened the outlook for economic growth and is pushing up inflation.A big negative for the housing market is likely to come from upward pressure on interest rates. ANZ forecast that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise the official cash rate three times this year towards 3%, starting in July.Another headwind for house prices is the upcoming general election, including the Labour Party's commitment to introduce a capital gains tax on residential investment property and commercial property.Median mortgage rates of one year and longer are all up, with the biggest change seen in two-year and five-year rates, per the report.

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International

New Zealand Property Sellers Wipe NZ$54.7 Million From Asking Prices in Q1, Realestate.co.nz Says

New Zealand saw NZ$54.7 million wiped from property asking prices in the first quarter as sellers priced at levels closer to what buyers expect to pay, according to a Wednesday report from realestate.co.nz.The total value of price reductions fell by more than NZ$8 million year over year in what the report described as a shift from a year earlier. The results come despite more properties hitting the market than in the year-ago period, and the total value of new listings rising by almost $800 million.Across the country, vendors who cut their asking price in the first quarter did so by an average of NZ$33,212 per listing."More listings would normally mean more discounting, but that's not the case this quarter," said Vanessa Williams, a spokesperson for the online real estate marketplace."The data tells us that sellers are reading the room and pricing their properties closer to what buyers are willing to pay," Williams added.The report noted that overall, the amount that vendors are cutting their prices has been trending lower during the last two years.

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International

New Zealand New Residential Mortgage Lending Rises in March

Total new residential mortgage lending in New Zealand rose to NZ$9.5 billion in March from NZ$6.64 billion in February, according to data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand released on Wednesday.Residential mortgage lending to first home buyers rose to NZ$1.99 billion in March from NZ$1.39 billion in the previous month. Lending to other owner-occupiers increased to NZ$5.49 billion from NZ$3.92 billion.Residential mortgage lending to investors rose to NZ$1.89 billion from NZ$1.25 billion, while that for business purposes increased to NZ$134 million from NZ$82 million.Total new residential lending at a loan-to-valuation ratio above 80% came in at NZ$1.38 billion in March for all borrower types, up from NZ$981 million in February.Residential mortgage lending, where the loan-to-valuation ratio is equal to 80% or below, was NZ$8.12 billion for all borrower types, up from NZ$5.65 billion in the previous month.

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International

New Zealand's Q1 Unemployment Rate Expected to Stay Steady, ANZ Says

New Zealand's first-quarter unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 5.4%, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 5.5%, according to a report by ANZ released on Wednesday.ANZ increased its quarterly employment growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 0.3%, with employment growth appearing to have held onto a little more momentum in March than previously anticipated, the report said.Upcoming data on hours paid and hours worked may indicate some signal around the risks to the first-quarter GDP forecast of 0.8% quarter on quarter, though the recent oil shock likely won't show up yet since the labor market is typically the last sector to react to changing economic conditions.First-quarter labor market data is expected to show that the market had enough excess capacity to act as a buffer against the recent oil shock, limiting the risk of labor costs driving up inflation in the near term.

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International

RBNZ Governor Says New Zealand Cannot Avoid Impact of Middle East Conflict

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman said New Zealand cannot avoid being "buffeted" by global forces stemming from the Middle East conflict, with the impact to be felt differently across sectors, regions, and households, according to a Wednesday statement.Breman said annual consumer price index (CPI) inflation was 3.1% in the March quarter, above the 1% to 3% target range and slightly higher than expected at the time of the April monetary policy decision, with much of the increase driven by fuel prices, though measures of core inflation have remained stable within the target."The Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision on 8 April to hold the [Official Cash Rate] at 2.25 percent balanced the potential benefits of responding pre-emptively to the risk of higher medium-term inflation against the cost of unnecessarily stifling the economic recovery," Breman added.

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Asia

NZX Midday Sector Update: Health Technology Rises, Consumer Durables Tank

Health technology stocks gained the most on New Zealand's Exchange, rising 1% by midday Wednesday.Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (NZE:FPH, ASX:FPH) shares climbed nealry 2% in recent trade.On the other hand, consumer durables shares fell more than 6%.KMD Brands (NZE:KMD, ASX:KMD) shares slid past 6% in recent trade.

^NZ50ASX:FPHASX:KMDNZE:FPHNZE:KMD
Asia

New Zealand Shares Fall; AM Best Affirms Tower Ratings at 'A-Excellent' With Stable Outlook

New Zealand shares closed lower on Tuesday amid reports of US President Donald Trump being unsatisfied with Iran's latest proposal to end the US-Iran conflict.The S&P/NZX 50 Index fell 0.86% or 110.54 points to close at 12,764.40.Trump is "unhappy" with Iran's latest proposal to resolve the two-month conflict, according to a Tuesday Reuters report, citing a US official.New Zealand signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with India on Monday that lowers tariffs on key fruit imports such as kiwifruit and apples, expands opportunities for Indian exports, and eases visa access as the two countries deepen economic ties, according to a Monday Reuters report.In domestic news, the total business count across New Zealand fell to 599,352 in March from 599,625 in February, according to data from Stats NZ.Also, the seasonally adjusted number of filled jobs across New Zealand industries rose 0.3% month on month to 2.4 million in March, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month, data from Stats NZ showed.Further, home lending in New Zealand increased almost 18% in the six months through December 2025, with first-home buyers receiving nearly a quarter of new residential loans in the period, the New Zealand Banking Association (NZBA) said.In corporate news, Tower (ASX:TWR, NZE:TWR) said AM Best has reaffirmed its financial strength rating at "A-Excellent" and its long-term issuer credit rating at "a-Excellent," both with a stable outlook.Fletcher Building (ASX:FBU, NZE:FBU) entered a binding conditional agreement to sell its Fletcher Reinforcing and Wire business to United Industries for NZ$15.7 million.

^NZ50ASX:FBUASX:TWRNZE:FBUNZE:TWR
International

New Zealand Construction Cost Inflation Relatively Modest But Price Pressure is Building, QV Says

Construction cost inflation in New Zealand is relatively contained despite significant pressure from rising fuel prices due to the Middle East conflict, Quotable Value (QV) said in a Tuesday report.The latest CostBuilder monthly update showed both elemental and trade rates rising by an average of 0.3% in April from the previous month. However, soaring diesel costs, which posted a monthly gain of 37.6% and are up nearly 110% since February, continue to flow through to construction, especially in fuel-intensive works.Piling and demolition costs increased by 1.6% and 1.3%, respectively, mainly as a result of elevated diesel prices. Diesel costs also drove a 2.2% increase in site preparation costs and a 1.9% increase in substructure costs, the report said."What makes fuel different to other inputs is how broadly it feeds into the construction process - from machinery on site through to transport and materials - so the impact tends to build over time rather than show up all at once," said QV CostBuilder spokesperson and quantity surveyor Martin Bisset."The key thing is that price pressure is building, even if it's not fully reflected in headline cost increases just yet," Bisset added.

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International

New Zealand Home Lending Rose in H2 2025 With Resilient Activity From First Home Buyers, NZBA Says

Home lending in New Zealand increased almost 18% in the six months through December 2025, with first home buyers receiving nearly a quarter of new residential loans in the period, the New Zealand Banking Association (NZBA) said in a Tuesday report.The volume of new home loans increased to 70,811 in the second half of 2025 from 60,249 in the first half, although the average value of cumulative new home loans fell 3% from the previous period to NZ$392,519, according to the report.Almost 43% of home loan borrowers were ahead on their repayments in the second half of 2025, up from about 40% in the first half, which showed "a high level of financial capability among New Zealand homeowners," said NZBA Chief Roger Beaumont."Nearly 18% of home loans moved from variable to fixed interest rates, which is relatively significant," Beaumont said. "This may reflect a recognition that interest rates were becoming less likely to fall further as economic conditions changed."Meanwhile, just over 1% of residential loan customers were behind on repayments in the second half of last year, roughly the same as in the first half, the report showed.

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Asia

NZX Midday Sector Update: Electronic Technology Advances, Industrial Services Decline

Electronic technology shares gained the most on New Zealand's Exchange, rising past 2% by midday Tuesday.Shares of ikeGPS Group (NZE:IKE, ASX:IKE) rose almost 5% in recent trade.On the flip side, the industrial services sector struggled, shedding nearly 4%.Ventia Services Group (NZE:VNT, ASX:VNT) shares fell 6% in recent trade.

^NZ50ASX:IKEASX:VNTNZE:IKENZE:VNT
International

New Zealand Filled Jobs Rise in March

The seasonally adjusted number of filled jobs across New Zealand industries rose 0.3% month on month to 2.4 million in March, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month, data from Stats NZ showed on Tuesday.Filled jobs in the primary, goods-producing, and service industries rose by 0.6%, 0.1%, and 0.3% respectively.By industry, the largest increase was in health care and social assistance, with filled jobs up 1.8%, or 5,201 jobs, compared with March 2025.Meanwhile, total gross earnings rose 2.5% in March on an accrual basis compared with March 2025, while total gross earnings for the same month reached NZ$16.7 billion.

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International

New Zealand Business Count Falls in March

The total business count across New Zealand fell to 599,352 in March from 599,625 in February, according to data from Stats NZ on Tuesday.Enterprise entries declined to 4,461 in March from 11,454 in the previous month, while exits fell to 4,737 from 8,784.

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International

Asia Week Ahead: Central Bank Decisions; Inflation Prints; and Trade Data

For the week ahead in Asia, the economic calendar is packed with major data releases, central bank decisions and inflation updates across the region.Monday brings China's first-quarter industrial profits data, as well as Malaysia's producer prices.On Tuesday, markets will turn to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, alongside trade figures from Hong Kong and Macao, and India's March production report.Wednesday features Thailand's central bank rate decision and Australia's closely watched quarterly inflation print, while Thursday brings China's official and private PMI readings.On Friday, Japan's Tokyo core inflation reading will be in focus, along with South Korea's April trade data.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, April 27The week kicked off with the release of China's industrial profits data for the first quarter.The total profits of China's industrial enterprises rose 15.5% year on year to 1.696 trillion yuan during the first three months of 2026, with increases seen in the mining, manufacturing, technology, and chemical industries.A drop in profits was witnessed in the utilities industry, as well as the electricity and heat and agricultural industries, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.Singapore disclosed its manufacturing output stats for March, highlighting a 10.1% jump in production thanks to strong growth across almost all clusters.Malaysia's producer prices rose in March for the first time in a year, driven largely by a rebound in the mining sector, according to Trading Economics.Producer prices climbed 1.1% year on year, reversing a 3.4% decline in the previous month.Meanwhile, Taiwan's consumer confidence index edged up to 62.47 in April, rising 0.17 points from March.The uptick was driven by improvements in four sub-indicators, with sentiment on employment opportunities posting the largest monthly gain.A pair of reports covering business and consumer confidence was also due in the Philippines.TUESDAY, April 28Markets will turn their attention to an interest rate decision scheduled in Japan.The upcoming decision could be a complicated one for the Bank of Japan as it grapples with intensifying inflation domestically and the uncertainty surrounding the Middle East, ING said in a preview.While markets broadly expect the central bank to maintain rates at 0.75%, ING said it continues to believe there's a chance the Bank of Japan may hike rates.Japanese unemployment data is also due the same day, with observers expecting the jobless rate to hover around the 2.6% mark, unchanged from the prior month, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.Hong Kong will disclose trade stats for March. According to Trading Economics, the city state's trade deficit could narrow to HK$43 billion from the HK$64.2 billion recorded in February.Macao will similarly release balance of trade figures. The city state's trade deficit could narrow to 9.4 billion pataca in March from 9.9 billion pataca a month prior, Trading Economics forecasted.India's industrial production data for March will also be in the news. A consensus compiled by Trading Economics indicated analysts expect India's industrial production growth to slow to a rate of 4.2% from 5.2% in February.India's manufacturing weakened in March as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, unstable market conditions, and inflationary pressures impacted output, S&P Global said previously. However, conditions appeared to have improved in April, according to the firm's most recent flash purchasing managers' index release.South Korea's business confidence report for April will be due the same day.WEDNESDAY, April 29Thailand's central bank will meet for its interest rate decision.The Bank of Thailand is seen to hold rates steady at 1% amid softening growth and inflationary pressure due to the conflict in the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reported.Thailand's March Industrial production data is also expected on the same day.Australia's latest inflation print will be in the news, providing markets with an overview of pricing pressure ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's May board meeting.Westpac said it expects to see a 4.2% yearly gain in headline inflation for the March quarter.The quarterly data is likely to affirm for the Reserve Bank of Australia that the underlying inflation pressures are evident in the economy before the escalation of the Middle East conflict in late February, ANZ said in a preview.In Singapore, March import and export prices will be expected, as well as producer price inflation data.THURSDAY, April 30China's manufacturing and services sectors will be in focus as the National Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly purchasing managers' index covering manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and general PMI for April.The release will be accompanied by a private reading on China's manufacturing sector from S&P Global.Economists at ING said they expect official data to show activity dipped back into contractionary territory following the expansion witnessed in March.ING forecasts manufacturing PMI falling to 49.9 and the non-manufacturing PMI dipping to 49.8, and said it expects to see pricing pressure continuing to build in the PMI sub-indices.Taiwan will release its first-quarter advance gross domestic product growth rate, with markets looking for signs of whether the island state's economy can continue posting stellar growth due to its global positioning in high-precision semiconductor production.Researchers at ANZ expect Taiwan's first-quarter GDP growth rate to come in at 11.8%, slowing from the 12.7% rise witnessed in the prior quarter, the Wall Street Journal reported.In Australia, the first-quarter import and export prices data is expected. CommBank said it expects export prices to rise 1.2% while import prices to decline 0.6%, both on a quarter-on-quarter basis.Meanwhile, a confidence report due in New Zealand is likely to show a further deterioration in business sentiment due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, CommBank said in a preview.Further trade data is expected in the Philippines, which could see its trade deficit widen to $4.1 billion in March from $3.68 billion in April, according to Trading Economics.Both South Korea and Japan will release industrial production and retail sales data for March.ING said it expects Japan's industrial production to "rebound quite firmly" during the month. The firm expects industrial output to rise 2.2% year on year from the 0.4% rise witnessed in February.Japan will additionally release a consumer confidence report for April, while a similar release covering business confidence will be due in Singapore.Singapore's first-quarter preliminary unemployment rate will also be released on Thursday.Thailand's February retail sales stats will be due.FRIDAY, May 1Japan's closely watched Tokyo core consumer price index for April will capture headlines, offering markets an early indicator of the overall inflation rate in the country."The Tokyo CPI is expected to rise faster in April, reflecting recent energy price hikes, a weak JPY, solid wage growth, and bi-annual price adjustments," ING said in a preview.South Korea announces April trade data.The country's trade surplus could drop marginally to $26 billion from $26.2 billion a month prior, even as exports show a 50% year on year growth due to robust chip shipments, ING said.A consumer confidence report due in New Zealand could show sentiment weakening further in April and over the coming months amid the Middle East conflict, CommBank said in a preview."As the conflict progresses, overall consumer confidence is expected to continue falling," CommBank said.Neighboring Australia will release first-quarter produce price data.On the activity front, S&P Global releases its PMI reports covering manufacturing activity in Australia and Japan.

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