S&P/TSX Composite Index

Canada's Unemployment Rate at 6.5% in June; MUFG Says Consensus Saw at 6.6%

Canada Gains 18,000 Jobs, or 0.1% M/M, in June; MUFG Says Consensus Expected 10,000 Increase

TSX Closer: Index Rises as Base Metals, Financial Shares Gain Ahead of Canada Jobs Data

The Toronto Stock Exchange rose on Thursday as strong gains in base metals and financial shares helped lift the benchmark index, while investors assessed the outlook for interest rates and the Canadian economy ahead of Friday's jobs report.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 264.65 points, or 0.76%, to 35,200.45, with sectors closing mixed.Base Metals led gainers, up 3.41%, with Industrials, Information and Technology, and Financial, up 0.06%, 0.49%, and 1.01%, respectively. Battery Metals Index led decliners, down 2.42%, while Health Care, down 0.54%, Utilities, down 0.58%, Energy, down 1.29%, and Telecom, down 0.16%.In commodities, gold traded higher on Thursday as the dollar and yields fell, but remained rangebound as inflation worries again heightened with oil prices rising earlier in the day on renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran.The precious metal for August delivery was last seen up $58.90, or 1.4%, to $4,141.30 per ounce. The price of the metal has hovered above the $4,000 mark for the past two weeks, staying well under its Jan. 29 record high of $5,354.90.Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower on Thursday even as fresh friction between the U.S. and Iran threatens to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, again shutting in tankers bringing Persian Gulf supply to the market. WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down $1.44, or 2%, to settle at $72.08 per barrel, while September Brent oil was last seen down $1.72, or 2.2%, to $76.30.In currencies, The Canadian dollar has edged higher this week thanks to stronger oil prices, but remained range-bound ahead of this week's Labour Force Survey (LFS), Corpay said in a note on Thursday.The LFS report, due Friday, is expected to show a slowdown in job creation and a stabilization in the unemployment rate in June, following an unexpectedly strong performance in the previous month, Karl Schamotta, Corpay's chief market strategist, wrote.Additionally, the guidance for the Canadian dollar will depend heavily on whether US-Canada rate differentials begin to narrow, according to TD Economics. TD's base case is that moderating U.S. inflation and slower growth will allow the Federal Reserve to gradually cut rates toward 3.25% in 2027, reducing the appeal of US. dollar assets and providing support for the Canadian dollar, the bank wrote in a Thursday note."The main risk is that the U.S. economy proves strong enough to keep those rate differentials wider for longer," wrote Andrew Hencic, director and senior economist at TD note. A resilient U.S. economy could limit Fed easing, while stronger American productivity growth may keep the neutral rate higher than in Canada.Looking ahead, this week's LFS for June will provide another update on Canada's jobs market, but National Bank of Canada Capital Markets said it doesn't expect the data to significantly alter the Bank of Canada's outlook.With ongoing uncertainty around United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement negotiations weighing on the economy, a broad-based recovery is unlikely in the near term in Canada, wrote National Bank. As a result, the BoC is expected to maintain a balanced policy stance, leaving both rate hikes and cuts on the table.With growth subdued and inflation pressures contained, market pricing has pushed the timing of rate hikes further out, added National Bank.Turning to the auto sector, Canadian vehicle sales are expected to ease this year before recovering in 2027.Canadian light vehicle sales are forecast to be slightly lower this year before improving in 2027, although the outlook remains highly uncertain with risks stemming from volatile oil prices and U.S. trade policy, according to Scotiabank Economics.Canadian light vehicle sales are expected to reach 1.86 million units in 2026, or 1.6% less than the previous year, with demand remaining broadly stable through mid-year before recovering to 1.9 million units in 2027, wrote the bank in a note.In line with this forecast, Canadian light vehicle sales increased 1.6% on the month in June to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.9 million units, according to Omdia, marking the fourth rise in five months, said Scotiabank.

TSX up 290 Points at Midday With Materials The Best Performer

The Toronto Stock Exchange is up near 290 points at midday on Thursday, reversing most of Tuesday's decline.Materials, up 3.5%, is the best performer, as precious metals prices rise, followed by the financials sector, up 1%.Energy is the biggest decliner, down 0.9%.In stocks, Neo Performance Materials (NEO.TO) is up 13% and earlier climbed to a record high of $43.03 after it upgraded its fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance.

TSX Closer: Index Drops as Financial, Mining Losses Outweigh Energy Surge; US-Iran Fighting Hikes Inflation Fears

The Toronto Stock Exchange dropped on Wednesday as losses in financial and mining shares outweighed a sharp rise in energy stocks, while renewed fighting between the US. and Iran fueled inflation concerns and weighed on investor sentiment.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 336.79 points, or 0.95%, to 34,935.80, with a majority of sectors ending lower.Energy led gainers, up 3.78%, with Telecom and Utilities, up 0.31% and 0.98%, respectively. Battery Metals Index led decliners, down 5.56%, while Financial, down 1.86%, Base Metals, down 2.01%, Industrials, down 0.42%, Information and Technology, down 0.71% and Health Care, down 0.04%.In commodities, gold traded lower on Wednesday as renewed fighting between Iran and the U.S. boosted oil prices and the dollar, reviving inflation fears that weighed on the precious metal. Gold for August delivery was last seen down $80.90, or 2%, to $4,076.50 per ounce, the lowest since June 30.Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed higher on Wednesday as the US. and Iran traded attacks, with President Trump saying the ceasefire deal reached last month is over. WTI crude oil for August delivery closed up $3.08, or 4.4%, to settle at $73.52 per barrel, the highest since June 18, while September Brent oil was last seen up $3.80, or 5.1%, to $77.96.However, despite renewed fighting, ships trapped in the Persian Gulf since the start of the war have continued to move through the Strait of Hormuz, with hormuzstraitmonitor.com reporting 25 ships moved through the waterway in the past day.Investors also weighed a weaker outlook for the Canadian economy. The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday trimmed its Canadian economic growth forecasts for this year and 2027 on slower population growth, weak investment and trade uncertainty.These headwinds continue to outweigh the support provided by stronger terms of trade and resilient household consumption, wrote the IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook. The IMF now predicts Canada's economy will expand 1.1% this year and 1.7% in 2027, down from 1.5% and 1.9% estimated respectively in April.The country's economy grew 1.9% last year. Stronger 2027 growth depends on effective policy implementation and a firmer private investment response, added the IMF.In currency markets, the outlook for the Canadian dollar also remained in focus. Deutsche Bank said it is now taking profits on the USD/CAD long position, which has returned around 3.5% on the investment, while maintaining a negative view on the Canadian dollar."USD/CAD has only been higher than this in three episodes in the past 20 years," Tim Baker, Deutsche Bank macro strategist, wrote in a note on Wednesday. However, much of the move has been driven by broad U.S. dollar strength and Baker added he doesn't expect the current greenback rally to extend.Deutsche Bank's outlook remains skewed toward USD/CAD moving to C$1.40 rather than back to the mid-C$1.30s, given limited downside potential.Additionally, Canadian bank shares are over-valuing future growth and potential upside, said Jefferies on Wednesday. Except for Scotiabank (BNS.TO) and EQB (EQB.TO), all Canadian Banks are trading at an NTM P/E valuation above their respective historical peaks since 2005, Jeffries director of research John Aiken wrote.Bank ROEs currently average 14.6%, compared with their historical average of 15.4%. Aiken found that near-to-medium ROE is currently the strongest driver of relative valuations, rather than EPS growth.In corporate news, Air Canada (AC.TO) announced a leadership change, naming a new chief executive to succeed retiring CEO Michael Rousseau. The airline named Anko Van der Werff as president, chief executive officer and board member, effective by the end of January 2027. Van der Werff is replacing Rousseau, who previously announced his retirement after 19 years with Air Canada, the airline company said Wednesday.Air Canada said Van der Werff has a 25-year track record and is currently serving as president and CEO of Scandinavian Airlines. Rousseau's retirement is effective Aug. 31. During the transition period, the executive committee will report to the board of directors, Air Canada said.Besides, a new survey pointed to a positive hiring outlook among Canadian employers, even as recruitment challenges persist.Nearly three quarters of a survey of 508 Canadian hiring managers feel positive about their company's hiring outlook for the remainder of 2026, with 43% of companies planning to boost the number of employees. However more than eight in 10 managers anticipate challenges in filling positions, with 45% citing difficulties with finding qualified candidates, the survey, conducted on behalf of staffing company Express Employment International, highlighted.A similar survey conducted last year had 67% of participants feeling positive about hiring with 44% planning to hire more.

TSX Falls Near 580 Points at Midday With Materials The Worst Performer

The Toronto Stock Exchange slumped 580 points by midday Wednesday on renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities, as President Trump declared the ceasefire "over".Energy, up 3.7% is the best performer, bolstered by higher oil prices, followed by defensive sectors telecoms, up 0.6%, and utilities up 0.7%.Materials, down 4.4%, is the worst performer, as precious metals prices decline, followed by technology which is 3% lower.In company news, Air Canada (AC.TO) appointed Anko Van der Werff as chief executive officer. Van der Werff, who is currently CEO of Scandinavian Airlines, takes over from Michael Rousseau. In a statement, Air Canada said Van der Werff "is able to communicate in French".

TSX Closer: The Index Rises as Energy Shares Jump, Strong Trade Data Signals Q2 Growth Tailwind

The Toronto Stock Exchange rose on Tuesday as a jump in energy issues and gains across most sectors outweighed weakness in mining stocks, while stronger-than-expected Canadian trade data offered a positive signal for second-quarter economic growth.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 60.27 points, or 0.17%, to 35,272.59, with a majority of sectors closing higher.Energy led gainers, up 3.03%, with Health Care, Industrials, Information and Technology, Financial, Utilities, and Telecom, up 0.17%, 0.59%, 0.88%, 0.35%, 0.68%, and 1.45%, respectively. Battery Metals Index closed down 1.73%, while Base Metals ended the day down 4.38%.In commodities, gold traded lower on Tuesday as the dollar and bond yields rose, with the metal remaining rangebound even as inflation worries eased with lower energy prices. The precious metal for August delivery was last seen down $9.70, or 0.2%, to $4,157.80 per ounce.Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil jumped on Tuesday following fresh Iranian attacks on ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil for August delivery closed up 2.8% to settle at $70.44 per barrel, while September Brent oil was last seen up 3.1% to $74.25.The rise follows reports that Iran fired on ships in Omani waters near the Strait of Hormuz. The attacks threaten to keep ships that have been trapped in the Persian Gulf since the Feb. 28 start of the war on Iran from leaving the region.On the domestic economic front, stronger-than-expected trade data offered a positive signal for second-quarter growth, with Canada's merchandise trade surplus widening in May and economists pointing to a growing contribution from net exports.With merchandise data covering the first two months of the quarter, Canada's trade activity suggests net exports are shifting from a drag in the first quarter to a modest tailwind for real GDP growth in Q2, said TD Economics on Tuesday.May's trade surplus widened to C$4.2 billion, up from an upwardly revised C$3.4 billion in April, said Statistics Canada on Tuesday. May's surplus was significantly above the C$2.9 billion consensus figure provided by Bank of Montreal Capital Markets (BMO) before the StatsCan release.Exports increased 0.9% monthly, led by stronger shipments of metal ores and non-metallic minerals, including diamonds, while energy exports eased slightly after recent gains."Net exports look to add firmly to growth in Q2, another data point that suggests the Canadian economy has snapped out of its two-quarter funk," wrote BMO Senior Economist Robert Kavcic in a note.Canada's merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. widened to C$11.6 billion in May from C$10.3 billion in April, posting the largest surplus since January 2025, according to StatsCan.Notably, the July 1 U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) deadline passed without renewal, moving the agreement into rolling annual reviews and extending uncertainty around unresolved issues involving steel, aluminum, autos, lumber, and procurement, added TD."This leaves risks modestly tilted to the downside even as solid U.S. demand offers a partial offset," wrote TD Economist Marc Ercolao.In currency markets, the Canadian dollar remained under scrutiny as investors weighed improving domestic economic data against weaker commodity prices and ongoing trade uncertainty.The Canadian dollar is caught between improving domestic data and limited external support, but conditions might be in place late this year to provide support to the loonie in 2027, National Bank of Canada said in a note.Recent gross domestic product gains and stronger full-time employment have eased recession concerns, with Q2 growth tracking around 2.3% annualized, the bank said. However, weaker medium-term growth prospects, softer commodity prices, and the uncertainty on the ongoing USMCA trade discussions continue to limit the Canadian dollar's upside, Stefane Marion and Kyle Dahms said in the bank's note.The Canadian dollar's stretched levels after climbing above C$1.42 against its US counterpart don't seem to be enticing investors to a near-term rebound with labor-market data on Friday offering economic clues, according to Societe Generale.Since the pair last traded at these levels following the April 2025 tariff shock from President Donald Trump, expectations for higher U.S. interest rates have widened the gap between Canadian and U.S. short-term yields, continuing to support the US dollar, the bank said in a note Tuesday.

TSX Closer: Index Closes Sharply Higher in Broad-Based Rally as Strong Canadian Data, Gold Gains, Lift Sentiment

The Toronto Stock Exchange closed sharply higher on Friday as gains across all sectors were supported by stronger than expected Canadian economic data, while higher gold prices and elevated market sentiments boosted investors' confidence.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 308.17 points, or 0.88%, to 35,274.84, with all sectors ending higher.Health Care led gainers, up 1.29%, with Battery Metals Index, up 0.97%, Industrials, up 0.90%, Information and Technology, up 0.79%, Energy, up 0.62%, Base Metals, up 0.92%, Financial, up 0.41%, Utilities, up 0.27%, and Telecom, up 0.60%.In commodities, gold traded higher on Friday in light electronic trading as the dollar continued to weaken after a report the previous day showed weaker-than-expected U.S. job growth. The precious metal for August delivery was last seen up 1.5% to $4,187.30 per ounce in thin trade with US markets closed ahead of the July 4 Independence Day holiday.The rise comes after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday reported the economy added just 57,000 jobs last month, down from 129,000 in May and well below expectations for an increase of 115,000, according to MarketWatch.Meanwhile, oil prices were mostly steady on Friday, hovering near four-month lows on expectations that the U.S. and Iran will reach a peace agreement and continue to free up ships trapped in the Persian Gulf. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for August delivery was last seen up $0.09 to $68.78 per barrel in light electronic trading, with US markets closed on Friday ahead of the July 4 Independence Day holiday. September Brent crude was up 0.5% at $72.12.On the macro front, recent data pointed to stronger momentum in the Canadian economy heading into the second quarter. The Canadian economy started the second quarter on a stronger footing than expected, National Bank of Canada said in a note on Friday."While broad-based, the rebound was led by the energy sector, which saw a normalization in oil sands and pipeline activity following earlier disruptions," noted the lender adding that the sector is expected to contribute strongly to Q2 growth given the shift in demand toward producers outside the Middle East in a context where the Strait of Hormuz was closed for several weeks.Canada's real GDP grew 0.5% in April, surpassing the expected 0.4% increase and rebounding from the 0.1% decline recorded in March.S&P Global's Manufacturing PMI increased from 52.9 in May to 53.0 in June, a third consecutive month of expansion in the country's factory activity."Production grew at a healthy clip, though it did not keep pace with the inflow of new orders. The result was a further expansion of work backlogs, which led to the largest increase in headcount since October 2024," added National Bank.Looking ahead, Canadian manufacturers' confidence in future output slipped to a 3-month low and was well below its long-term average, the bank said.Meanwhile, the outlook for the Canadian dollar remained challenging, with Rosenberg warning of further weakness amid structural, cyclical and interest-rate pressures. Rosenberg said Canadian loonie is in a "fundamental bear market" that suggests C$1.60 to the U.S. dollar is not out of reach."Another, more persistent challenge, is that Canada's already massive productivity gap with the U.S. looks set to widen, with the U.S. in the throes of an AI-related investment surge, and with no major pro-business tax reforms looming in Canada. A weaker Canadian dollar is the competitive crutch," Rosenberg wrote in a note on Friday.The Canadian dollar faces such a dire situation, as it relates to a relentless loss of relative domestic productivity and cost competitiveness, that it is very likely to continue to weaken to C$1.50 first, and then toward C$1.60 by the end of 2027, added Rosenberg.Additionally, the Labour Force Survey for June, to be released next Friday, could post a more moderate gain than May's 88,000 surge in employment, wrote Scotiabank Economics in a note. Derek Holt, who heads Scotiabank's capital markets economics, is "guesstimating" a 10,000 gain."After the large 88k job gain in May it may be natural to assume that June could offer some payback. The historical evidence and the methodology employed by the Labour Force Survey would counsel against expecting as much," he said.In real estate, Canadian average home prices are expected to dip 0.3% in annual average terms this year, TD Economics wrote in a note."Our estimate of first half price growth is roughly unchanged from March. Looking ahead, we still see subdued second half gains, consistent with loose supply/demand balances, followed by a modest acceleration in price growth in 2027," said economist Rishi Sondhi.TD's upgraded sales growth expectations for British Columbia and Ontario for the second half of this year show average prices in B.C. moving sideways and Ontario's falling further over the near term. Prices in both markets are expected to turn positive in 2027. In Quebec, price growth stays firm but continues to decelerate. Alberta prices are cooling, while Saskatchewan's "continues to run hot".

TSX Jumps 300 Points at Midday With All Sectors Higher

The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 300 points at midday, climbing above the 35,000 mark for the first time in more than two weeks, with all sectors higher.The best performers are the healthcare and telecoms sectors, both up 1.1%. Materials is the third biggest gainer, up 0.9%.In other news, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board said Friday that the Greater Toronto Area housing market conditions continued to improve in June, with sales growing year-over-year even as new listings declined over the same period. However, the MLS Home Price Index Composite benchmark was down by 5.4% year-over-year in June, and the average selling price fell 3.9% to C$1.06 million.In stocks, Imperial Metals (III.TO) is up 6.5% to $7.50, after it said it is set to receive C$500 million from the federal government to support the Red Chris mine's Block Cave copper-gold project.

TSX Closer: The Index Rises as Healthcare, Energy Gain; Investors Weigh US Jobs Data, CUSMA Outlook

The Toronto Stock Exchange rose on Thursday, led by gains in healthcare, industrial and energy shares, as investors weighed weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data, developments in North American trade and the outlook for interest rates.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 109.68 points, or 0.3%, to 34,966.67, with mixed sectors.Health Care led gainers, up 1.30%, with Battery Metals Index, Industrials, Information and Technology, and Energy, up 1.15%, 0.36%, 0.41%, and 0.52%, respectively. Base Metals led decliners, down 1.80%, while Financial, down 0.53%, Utilities, down 0.19%, and Telecom, down 1.66%.In commodities, gold moved higher on Thursday as the U.S. dollar fell sharply after U.S. hiring slowed more than expected in June. The yellow metal for August delivery was last seen up 1.1% to $4,127.80 per ounce.The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the economy added just 57,000 jobs last month, down from 129,000 in May and well below expectations for an increase of 115,000, according to MarketWatch.Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil edged higher on Thursday, even as supply concerns continue to ease with tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf since the start of the Iran war resuming transit through the Strait of Hormuz.WTI crude oil for August delivery closed up 0.2% to settle at $68.69 per barrel, while September Brent oil was last seen up 0.2% to $71.68. The rise comes even as ships continued to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, easing supply disruptions caused by the conflict.Investors also assessed the outlook for Canada-U.S. trade relations after Washington formally declined to renew the Canada-U.S.-Mexico (CUSMA) in its current form, a move economists said was widely anticipated and unlikely to disrupt trade in the near term.The July 1st deadline to extend the CUSMA agreement for another 16 years slipped by this week, with the U.S. declining to extend, but that outcome was communicated well in advance by all three parties, TD Economics wrote in a note.It is business as usual for now, with most of Canada's exports to the U.S. tariff-free, though onerous tariffs are continuing on steel, aluminum and autos. Uncertainty will also persist as the three parties will now engage in annual reviews, TD economist Rishi Sondhi said."We have tentative evidence that the worst of the trade conflict may be in the rearview. For instance, manufacturing GDP has risen in two of the last three months through April, and may have increased again in May given a pick up in hiring," he added.The U.S. did not agree to renew the CUSMA deal in its current form, U.S. trade representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer said in a statement on Wednesday. However, Greer said that the U.S. will continue to engage with Mexico and Canada to address the agreement's shortcomings and its trade deficits with these countries.As previously announced, the U.S. will meet with Mexico the week of July 20 for a third round of bilateral negotiations related to the CUSMA joint review.Rosenberg Research, in its note published on Thursday, said the Canadian Dollar has improved a touch to below the C$1.42 mark but surely will not benefit from the news that the White House has declined to renew the North American trade pact, at least not in its current form (the trade agreement remains in effect, but the move not to extend means that U.S. trade representatives will have to meet every year for a decade with Mexican and Canadian officials to review the deal ... and give the administration leverage to make changes it sees fit, and one of many issues is the protectionist supply management scheme in Canada's farming sector).Additionally, TD said Canada's economy is now on track to grow at above 2% annualized in the second quarter, when StatsCan's GDP guidance for May is included, which is above what the Bank of Canada had forecast in its April projection."Even still, it doesn't materially change our view on rates. Remember that the bounce back in GDP comes of heels of several quarters of soft activity, meaning that the economy is still likely in excess supply," Sondhi said.In the housing market, fresh data pointed to softer conditions in one of Canada's largest real estate markets.Home sales in Calgary declined in June from a year earlier as home prices also edged lower, reflecting softer housing demand, reported The Canadian Press.The Calgary Real Estate Board said 2,197 homes were sold during the month, down 3.8% from June 2025, while the residential benchmark price fell 2.1% year over year to C$572,500. The board's chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie attributed the slowdown to weaker population growth, saying lower migration has reduced demand for both higher-density housing and rental properties.

TSX up 76 Points at Midday, Led by Info Tech, Industrials

The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 76 points midday in choppy trade, with most sectors lower as the market resumes trading after the Canada Day holiday.Info tech and industrials are the sole gainers, up 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively.Limiting gains are decliners in materials, which is down 1.5%, and telecoms (-0.8%), followed by financials (-0.6%).In economic news, Canada's manufacturing sector expanded for a third straight month. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 53.0 in June, a tick above May's 52.9.The Trump administration also declined to renew the CUSMA trade agreement in its current form, necessitating annual reviews.In stocks, Aecon Group (ARE.TO) is up 8.2% to C$49.25 after it said its consortium was awarded a C$4 billion contract by Greenlight Electricity Centre Limited Partnership to build a 932-megawatt power plant in central Alberta to serve data-center power demand.Aecon's C$1.7 billion share of the contract value will be added to its construction segment backlog in the third quarter.

TSX Closer: The Index Edges Up as Economic Data Boosts Investor Sentiment

The Toronto Stock Exchange rose on Tuesday as gains in financial, technology and base metals stocks offset weakness in energy and telecom shares, while stronger-than-expected domestic economic data supported investor sentiment.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 33.17 points, or 0.10%, to 34,856.99, with a majority of sectors ending higher.Base Metals led gainers, up 1.76%, with Battery Metals Index, Health Care, Industrials, Information and Technology, and Financial, up 0.13%, 1.02%, 0.13%, 0.85%, and 0.77%, respectively. Telecom led decliners, down 2.60%, while Energy, down 0.24%, and Utilities, down 0.61%.In commodities, gold was steady on Tuesday, sticking above $4,000 even as the dollar and yields rose.The precious metal for August delivery was last seen up 0.1% to $4,042.60 per ounce. The price of the metal has dropped 10% over the past month as investors worry rising US inflation due to higher energy prices will force a hike to US interest rates, bearish for the metal since it offers no yield.Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower on Tuesday, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to free up previously trapped barrels. WTI crude for August delivery closed down 1.8% to $69.50 per barrel, while August Brent crude was last seen down 0.3% to $72.92.In economic news, Statistics Canada said Canada's real gross domestic product rose 0.5% in April, more than expected, after contracting 0.1% in March. The consensus on Investing.com was for a 0.4% gain.Goods-producing industries rose 1.2% in April, helped by mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, according to StatsCan. The sector jumped 2.9% in April, the largest monthly growth rate since February 2024's 3.2%, more than offsetting March's 1.4% contraction.Services-producing industries edged up 0.3%, the third-straight monthly increase. StatsCan said the increase was due to growth in the public sector and transportation and warehousing. Overall, 14 of the 20 industrial sectors advanced in April, the agency reported.The public sector aggregate, comprising educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration, expanded 0.4% in April, on increases across all comprising sectors.Transportation and warehousing rose 0.9% in April, up for the second time in three months, driven in large part in the month by increases in rail and pipeline transportation.The manufacturing sector rose 0.6% in April, while the construction sector edged up 0.7%, reversing four consecutive monthly declines. Real estate and rental and leasing expanded for the third consecutive month, rising 0.2% in April, on increases across all comprising subsectors. StatsCan said offices of real estate agents and brokers and activities related to real estate (+1.3%) contributed the most to the growth.The agency estimates real GDP by industry increased 0.1% in May. This estimate will be updated on July 31.April's stronger GDP stats indicates a better transition to the second quarter with Q2 growth now tracking above an annualized pace of 2%, TD Economics wrote in a note."Zooming out, that leaves the first-quarter stumble looking more like a temporary soft patch than the start of a deeper downturn, broadly in line with the Bank of Canada's view that growth should resume in Q2 even if the economy remains in excess supply," said economist Marc Ercolao.Canada's economy never entered any "credible" definition of recession, but growth is rebounding in Q2, wrote Scotiabank's Derek Holt, head of capital markets economics."This offers a nice set-up for the Bank of Canada's wholesale forecast reset in the July 15th MPR and following next week's BoC surveys that are likely to show higher inflation expectations," Holt said.In company news, MDA Space (MDA.TO) was in focus after the federal government awarded the company a C$688-million contract to build and launch a new replenishment satellite for Canada's RADARSAT Constellation Mission, The Canadian Press reported.Industry Minister Melanie Joly said is important to the country's security and sovereignty"In an increasingly dangerous and divided world, Canada is investing in modern surveillance systems to detect threats earlier," Joly said in a news release. "Through this investment, we are reinforcing Canada's sovereign satellite capabilities and equipping industry and the Canadian Armed Forces with the intelligence they need to protect communities, inform decisions, and keep Canada secure."

TSX up 84 Points at Midday, With Most Sectors Higher

The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 84 points at midday with most sectors higher.Materials is the top gainer, up 1.7%, tracking higher precious metals prices.The telecoms sector continued its downward decline, shedding 1.5%. Telus (T.TO) touched a fresh 52-week low of $15.03 in earlier trade.In economic news, Statistics Canada reported real GDP advanced 0.5% for the month of April, after contracting 0.1% in March and above economists' expectations.In stocks, Quarterhill (QTRH.TO) jumped near 46% to hit a multi-year high of C$2.50 per share after it announced it was acquiring Conduent Tolling Solutions' business for $70 million cash.

TSX Closer: The Index Falls as Investors Eye Canada GDP Data, Telecom Weighs

The Toronto Stock Exchange dropped on Monday as losses in telecom, industrial and utility stocks outweighed gains in healthcare and financials, while investors look ahead to a busy week of economic data, including Canada's April GDP report.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 156.18 points, or 0.45%, to 34,823.82, with a majority of sectors ending lower.Health Care led gainers, up 0.56%, with Battery Metals Index and Financial, up 0.21% and 0.33%, respectively. Telecom led decliners, down 1.38%, while Information and Technology, down 0.23%, Base Metals, down 0.03%, Energy, down 0.08%, Industrials, down 0.48%, and Utilities, down 0.65%.In commodities, gold prices eased on Monday on rising Treasury yields even as the dollar weakened. The precious metal for August delivery was last seen down 1.3% to $4,058.50. However, despite the drop, the price of the precious metal is sticking above the seven-month low touched on Thursday that followed a report of yet another monthly rise in U.S. inflation, pushing the dollar higher on expectations higher interest rates are coming.Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed higher on Monday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to halt the weekend strikes that had threatened their ceasefire. WTI crude oil for August delivery closed up 2.2% to settle at $70.75 per barrel, while August Brent oil was last seen up 1.4% to $73.03.On the trade front, Ontario moved to boost bilateral ties with another US state as tariff-related uncertainty continued to impact cross-border relations. Ontario signed an initial agreement with Utah on Monday to strengthen trade ties, extending a series of bilateral agreements the province has reached with US states since trade tensions escalated, Chris Fox of CTV News reported.Premier Doug Ford and Utah Governor Spencer Cox signed the pact while attending the annual meeting of Western U.S. governors in Deer Valley, Utah."Canada and the United States are always stronger when we work together to increase cooperation, collaboration and trade so we can grow the economy on both sides of the border," Ford said in a news release. "With nearly $7 billion in annual trade between Ontario and Utah already, today's agreement will help deliver new opportunities for our province's world-class workers and companies and create lasting prosperity in both regions," he added.On the economic front, National Bank said the latest Statistics Canada data pointed to mounting strains in Canada's manufacturing sector despite broader economic resilience.The agency's firm count data published Monday negates the argument that the country has remained "broadly resilient" because the effective U.S. tariff rate on its exports is relatively low, writes National Bank in a note.While that claim may hold at the aggregate level, the same doesn't apply for sectors like manufacturing, which are most exposed to trade friction, sayid chief economist Stefane Marion. National Bank's Hot Chart showed that the number of active manufacturing firms in Q1 fell to its lowest level in at least 10 years, outside the COVID-19 collapse, even though firm counts across all other industries are much closer to cycle highs.Looking ahead, Scotiabank said Canada's economy likely continued to expand in May, with early indicators pointing to another monthly gain in GDP.Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate for May gross domestic product is expected to show another monthly gain after an advance estimate pointed to 0.4% month-over-month growth in April, Scotiabank said in a note."As for May's preliminary estimate, I'm tracking another gain based on more limited readings. Hours worked were up by 0.6% m/m SA which is a solid plus given that GDP is hours worked times labour productivity," wrote Head of Capital Markets Derek Holt.Additionally, BMO Capital Markets said Canada's economy likely rebounded modestly in April ahead of this week's GDP report. Canada's economy might have "rebounded modestly" in the monthly GDP release for April due out on Tuesday as the week's key data point, BMO Capital Markets said in a note."After successive quarterly declines, the economy likely rebounded slightly in Q2 (around 1% annualized)," Senior Economist Sal Guatieri said in the note. "The May flash estimate could point to continued growth given reported advances in retail and manufacturers' sales."Also on the agenda for this week is a deadline over the Wednesday formal review date for the U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade agreement. "We're not holding our breadth for a quick resolution," the economist said, adding that trilateral talks have yet to begin.

TSX Down 182 Points at Midday With Most Sectors Lower

The Toronto Stock Exchange is down 182 points midday, with most sectors in the red.Telecoms, down 1.3% is the worst performer, followed by materials, down 0.7%, as precious metals prices fall.The financials sector is up just 0.1%. Energy has also edged up slightly.In other news, Statistics Canada is releasing April's gross domestic product figures tomorrow. The agency will also provide a preliminary estimate for May.Also on the agenda for this week is a deadline over the Wednesday formal review date for the US-Canada-Mexico trade agreement.

TSX Closer: Index Gains as Investors Weigh Easing Geopolitical Risk, BoC Rate Outlook

The Toronto Stock Exchange rose on Friday as investors assessed easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fresh economic data that reinforced expectations for a potential Bank of Canada interest-rate cut.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 129.79 points, or 0.37%, to 34,980.00, with sectors closing mixed.Battery Metals Index led gainers, up 1.54%, with Information and Technology, Industrials and Utilities, up 1.18%, 0.75%, and 0.58%, respectively. Health Care led decliners, down 0.97%, while Telecom, down 0.42%, Base Metals, down 0.56%, Energy, down 0.25%, and Financial, down 0.15%.In commodities, gold remained mostly steady on Friday, rising off multi-month lows as the U.S. dollar fell off a seven-month high. The precious metal for August delivery was last seen up 1.3% to US$4,098.00 per ounce.Meanwhile, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed at a four-month low as ships resumed moving through the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns over supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf following the outbreak of the Iran conflict on Feb. 28. WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down 3.7% to settle at US$69.23 per barrel, the lowest since Feb. 27, while August Brent crude was last seen down 4.3% to US$72.03 per barrel.The decline came after shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumed, a day after reports that Iran had attacked a vessel transiting the waterway in Omani waters. The incident prompted the International Maritime Organization to suspend an evacuation plan for ships stranded in the Persian Gulf. However, ships are again moving through the Strait, with hormuzstraitmonitor.com reporting 62 ships have moved out of the Gulf in the past day.Statistics Canada said in its latest report wholesale sales are estimated to have slipped in May, partly due to weaker activity in the machinery, equipment and supplies subsector. Wholesale sales, excluding oil, oil products, other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, are estimated to have fallen 0.7% month-on-month in May, StatsCan said in its advance estimate on Friday. This estimate is based on a 70.4% weighted response rate, below the 12-month average final response rate of 82.9%, added StatsCan.On the economic front, investors also assessed fresh labor-market signals and their implications for the Bank of Canada's rate path. Rosenberg Research said Friday it does not see wage-driven inflation pressures emerging in Canada despite April's average weekly earnings rising at their fastest annual pace in 12 months, according to payroll data released Thursday.Rosenberg pointed to the Bank of Canada's June 10 Summary of Deliberations, which said the economy remained weak, was operating with excess supply and continued to show labor market slack. "We do not fear wage-push inflation," stated Rosenberg.The Canadian Survey of Employment, Payrolls, and Hours (SEPH) payrolls rose by 22,000 in April, up from 5,700 in March, a solid monthly gain, pointed out Rosenberg. However, underlying labor conditions remain weak, with combined labor demand -- payrolls and vacancies -- just above zero, in line with subdued economic growth.Against this backdrop, Rosenberg said it still views the balance of risks as tilted toward a potential Bank of Canada rate cut.Additionally, BMO Capital Markets said that divergences in country's labor market reports were "surprising" and a reminder that one piece of data won't always capture the "complex" job market. Statistics Canada's SEPH showed jobs rose by 22,000 in April, while the Labour Force Survey posted an 18,000 decline for the same month, Senior Economist Shelly Kaushik wrote in a note.This is "a good reminder that no one statistic or report can fully capture something as complex as the job market," said Kaushik. The divergence reflects structural differences as the SEPH counts payroll jobs excluding self-employment, while the LFS counts individuals and includes self-employed workers, according to the bank.On the housing front, a new survey suggested affordability concerns have spread well beyond Canada's largest cities. The majority of Canadians, or 70%, consider local home prices to be high, either unreasonably or understandably so, compared with a decade ago, when opinions were more evenly split between those who viewed prices as reasonable and those who viewed them as unreasonable, the Angus Reid Institute said Friday.Ten years ago, housing affordability was primarily an issue in Vancouver and Toronto, but it has since become a national concern, according to the survey. The most notable shift has been in previously more affordable cities such as Calgary, Winnipeg, Montreal and Halifax, where perceptions that homes are overvalued have increased significantly, Angus Reid said.

TSX up 232 Points at Midday With Info Tech The Best Performer

The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 232 points at midday with most sectors higher.The best performers are info tech, up 1.2%, followed by industrials, up 0.8%. Blackberry (BB.TO) is up another 8% to $15.91. The company reported an earnings beat earlier this week.The financials sector is the sole decliner, down 0.04%.In other stocks, Titan Mining (TI.TO) is 6.4% higher, to $3.31 after it said overnight it received conditional selection notices from the U.S. Army for Enhanced Use Lease for opportunities to site graphite-purification facilities at the Pine Bluff Arsenal in Arkansas, and Anniston Army Depot in Alabama.

TSX Closer: Index Jumps as Investors Assess Oil Rebound, Rate Outlook, Trade Developments

The Toronto Stock Exchange surged on Thursday as investors weighed a rebound in oil prices, the outlook for Bank of Canada interest rates, and fresh signals on Canada's labor market and trade negotiations with the United States.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 114.12 points, or 0.33%, to 34,850.21, with gains in healthcare, industrials and base metals stocks outweighing declines in technology, telecommunications and battery metals shares.Industrials led gainers, up 1.16%, with Health Care, Utilities, Base Metals , Energy, and Financial, up 1.15%, 0.24%, 1.15%, 0.05%, and 0.35%, respectively. Battery Metals Index led decliners, down 4.98%, while Telecom, down 1.23%, and Information and Technology, down 1.31%.In commodities, gold moved up on Thursday as the dollar eased. The precious metal for August delivery was last seen up 0.9% to US$4,046.40 per ounce after falling to the lowest since Nov. 6 a day earlier.Meanwhile, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed higher on Thursday, rising off a four-month low after reports a cargo ship was attacked near Oman, raising safety worries that could again keep ships trapped in the Persian Gulf.WTI crude oil for August delivery close up 2.3% to settle at US$71.92 per barrel after earlier touching US$68.90, while August Brent oil was last seen up 2.1% to US$72.28. UK Maritime Trade Operations on Thursday said the International Maritime Organization is suspending traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following reports a cargo vessel in the Strait was attacked. So far, there was no indication when the Strait will be reopened.The pressure also extended to currency markets, where the Canadian dollar remained under strain. The Canadian dollar is trading close to levels it last reached after the U.S. announced its "Liberation Day" tariffs in April 2025, Corpay Currency Research said Thursday. It reflects a sharp widening in two-year US-Canada yield spreads since early May, driven by a more hawkish US policy repricing, ongoing trade tensions, weakness in Canada's housing market, and expectations the Bank of Canada will look through energy-driven inflation, given subdued growth, said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay.However, the decline looks stretched, added Schamotta. From a technical perspective, the Canadian dollar is at extremely oversold levels last seen in 1985, suggesting the recent decline may have gone too far.In the meantime, Prime Minister Mark Carney on Thursday said Canada is prepared to modernize the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement alongside its North American partners but will not agree to terms that do not serve the country's interests, CTV News reported."We could sign a bad deal this afternoon. We could have signed a bad deal a year ago. We're not going to sign a bad deal, so it has to be a real deal," CTV quoted Carney as saying at a press conference in Ottawa.Factors that have weighed on the Canadian dollar recently, including lower oil prices and shifting interest-rate expectations in the U.S. are exaggerated, even as upcoming trade talks and economic weakness weigh, Commerzbank said in a note. As recently as late April, the outlook was for a stronger Canadian currency, with the U.S. dollar versus the loonie briefly dipping below $1.36 as higher oil prices and Canada's position as a major energy exporter provided support amid Iran-war disruptions, Commerzbank wrote Thursday."These figures seem almost like something from another era when compared to the current ones," Commerzbank said. The greenback versus the loonie has climbed more than $0.06 to above $1.42, its highest since early April 2025. The move was driven by oil prices falling from their mid-April peak toward pre-Iran war levels, weakening Canada's terms of trade.On the monetary policy front, a new economic outlook pointed to a prolonged pause from the Bank of Canada.The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% through this year, with rate hikes likely postponed until 2027 as economic growth gradually regains momentum, Deloitte Canada said on Thursday.BoC policymakers continue to balance opposing pressures as weak economic growth and excess capacity are helping to restrain inflation, while higher energy prices stemming from Middle East tensions present an upside risk, Deloitte wrote in its Summer Edition Economic Outlook note. At its June 10 policy meeting, the central bank said April's annual inflation increase to 2.8% was largely energy-driven, with limited signs of broader price pressures.With growth weak but not recessionary, the current policy rate remains appropriate, stated Deloitte.Besides, a new report released by the country's statistical agency on Thursday showed payroll employment in Canada rose 0.1% month over month, or by 22,000 jobs, in April, after little change in March, leaving year-over-year growth at 0.4%.Job gains were led by health care and social assistance, public administration and administrative support services, while losses in professional services, manufacturing and construction partly offset the increase, noted Statistics Canada.However, labor demand stayed weak, with April's job vacancies flat on the month at around 490,500 and down 3.4% year over year. The job vacancy rate, which measures vacant positions as a share of total labor demand, stood at 2.7% in April, down from 2.8% in each month from December 2025 to March 2026, added StatsCan.

TSX up 240 Points at Midday as Materials, Healthcare, Lead Gains

The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 240 points at midday, led by gains in the materials and healthcare sectors both up 1.4%.The telecoms sector is the worst performer, down 1.2%.In stocks, Blackberry (BB.TO) has jumped 20% to a multi-year high of C$14.63 per share, and is the most actively traded issue on the TSX, after it reported higher first-quarter earnings and revenue, and raised its full year revenue guidance.Vitamin company Jamieson Wellness (JWEL.TO) is also up 12% to a multi-year high of $40.70 after it issued a statement overnight Wednesday confirming it had received an unsolicited proposal to acquire the company.

TSX Closer: Index Drops Amid Commodity Weakness

The Toronto Stock Exchange closed lower on Wednesday, falling for a second day as a sharp decline in oil prices and weakness in commodity-linked sectors weighed on sentiment.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 191.29 points, or 0.55%, to 34,736.09, with gains in some sectors offset by losses in others.Information and Technology led gainers, up 3.2%, with Industrials, Utilities, and Health Care, up 0.79%, 0.50%, and 2.18%, respectively. Battery Metals Index led decliners, down 6.02%, with Telecom, down 0.72%, Base Metals, down 3.97%, Energy, down 3.23%, and Financial, down 0.36%.In commodities, gold traded at a seven-month low on Wednesday as the dollar continued to strengthen on expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year to slow rising inflation.Gold for August delivery was last seen down 3.2% to US$4,032.90 per ounce, the lowest since early November. The price of the precious metal has dropped 4.9% in the week since the Fed's policy committee ended its two-day meeting leaving interest rates unchanged but warned rates might rise this year as inflation continues climb on higher energy costs.Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell for a fourth straight session on Wednesday as tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf due to the U.S-Iran war continued to move through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil for August delivery closed 4.9% lower to settle at US$70.34 per barrel, the lowest since Feb. 27, while August Brent oil was last seen down 4.4% to US$73.71.In other economic news, fresh reports on Canada's housing market pointed to ongoing affordability challenges for prospective homebuyers. Demand from prospective first-time home buyers remains very weak, with affordability constraints and barriers to down payments keeping many out of the market, Rosenberg Research said.More than half of non-homeowners in Canada have no plans to buy in the next 12 months, noted Rosenberg, citing a poll reported by the National Post. Housing affordability is about 20% weaker than its long-term average, most notably for younger buyers, implying further downward pressure on prices unless policy becomes more supportive, said Rosenberg in a note.However, homes priced under C$500,000 are becoming more common as Ontario's housing market cools, according to data from the Municipal Property Assessment Corp. (MPAC) published on Wednesday.Properties valued below C$500,000 account for nearly 24% of homes in 2026, up from 17% in 2022, though still far below the 67% share seen in 2016, said MPAC, which defines itself as an independent, not-for-profit corporation funded by all Ontario municipalities, accountable to the Province, municipalities, and property taxpayers.The Ontario market has shifted toward improved balance, with fewer homes above C$1 million and a majority now below C$750,000, added MPAC.Additionally, preliminary data from Statistics Canada indicated on Wednesday that total manufacturing sales gained 1.1% in May, with the motor vehicles and chemicals posting the largest expansion. If May's advance estimate is confirmed in final numbers, it would be the fourth month in a row of increases in manufacturing sales.A separate report focused on the budgetary implications of Canada's aging population and retirement programs.An aging population and rising fiscal strains are prompting Canada to rethink established policy models, with retirement support at the forefront of the debate, Scotiabank Economics said on Wednesday. With almost one in five Canadians now over 65, population aging is set to drive rising public expenditures, the bank wrote. At the center of the issue is Old Age Security (OAS), accounting for close to 60% of direct federal transfers to households and forecast to reach $100 billion annually by the end of the decade."Canada is rapidly aging," wrote Rebekah Young, Vice-President of Economic Policy, in the note. "The next phase of aging will look very different -- and cost much more -- than the one the country is experiencing now."