The Toronto Stock Exchange closed sharply higher on Friday as gains across all sectors were supported by stronger than expected Canadian economic data, while higher gold prices and elevated market sentiments boosted investors' confidence.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 308.17 points, or 0.88%, to 35,274.84, with all sectors ending higher.
Health Care led gainers, up 1.29%, with Battery Metals Index, up 0.97%, Industrials, up 0.90%, Information and Technology, up 0.79%, Energy, up 0.62%, Base Metals, up 0.92%, Financial, up 0.41%, Utilities, up 0.27%, and Telecom, up 0.60%.
In commodities, gold traded higher on Friday in light electronic trading as the dollar continued to weaken after a report the previous day showed weaker-than-expected U.S. job growth. The precious metal for August delivery was last seen up 1.5% to $4,187.30 per ounce in thin trade with US markets closed ahead of the July 4 Independence Day holiday.
The rise comes after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday reported the economy added just 57,000 jobs last month, down from 129,000 in May and well below expectations for an increase of 115,000, according to MarketWatch.
Meanwhile, oil prices were mostly steady on Friday, hovering near four-month lows on expectations that the U.S. and Iran will reach a peace agreement and continue to free up ships trapped in the Persian Gulf. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for August delivery was last seen up $0.09 to $68.78 per barrel in light electronic trading, with US markets closed on Friday ahead of the July 4 Independence Day holiday. September Brent crude was up 0.5% at $72.12.
On the macro front, recent data pointed to stronger momentum in the Canadian economy heading into the second quarter. The Canadian economy started the second quarter on a stronger footing than expected, National Bank of Canada said in a note on Friday.
"While broad-based, the rebound was led by the energy sector, which saw a normalization in oil sands and pipeline activity following earlier disruptions," noted the lender adding that the sector is expected to contribute strongly to Q2 growth given the shift in demand toward producers outside the Middle East in a context where the Strait of Hormuz was closed for several weeks.
Canada's real GDP grew 0.5% in April, surpassing the expected 0.4% increase and rebounding from the 0.1% decline recorded in March.
S&P Global's Manufacturing PMI increased from 52.9 in May to 53.0 in June, a third consecutive month of expansion in the country's factory activity.
"Production grew at a healthy clip, though it did not keep pace with the inflow of new orders. The result was a further expansion of work backlogs, which led to the largest increase in headcount since October 2024," added National Bank.
Looking ahead, Canadian manufacturers' confidence in future output slipped to a 3-month low and was well below its long-term average, the bank said.
Meanwhile, the outlook for the Canadian dollar remained challenging, with Rosenberg warning of further weakness amid structural, cyclical and interest-rate pressures. Rosenberg said Canadian loonie is in a "fundamental bear market" that suggests C$1.60 to the U.S. dollar is not out of reach.
"Another, more persistent challenge, is that Canada's already massive productivity gap with the U.S. looks set to widen, with the U.S. in the throes of an AI-related investment surge, and with no major pro-business tax reforms looming in Canada. A weaker Canadian dollar is the competitive crutch," Rosenberg wrote in a note on Friday.
The Canadian dollar faces such a dire situation, as it relates to a relentless loss of relative domestic productivity and cost competitiveness, that it is very likely to continue to weaken to C$1.50 first, and then toward C$1.60 by the end of 2027, added Rosenberg.
Additionally, the Labour Force Survey for June, to be released next Friday, could post a more moderate gain than May's 88,000 surge in employment, wrote Scotiabank Economics in a note. Derek Holt, who heads Scotiabank's capital markets economics, is "guesstimating" a 10,000 gain.
"After the large 88k job gain in May it may be natural to assume that June could offer some payback. The historical evidence and the methodology employed by the Labour Force Survey would counsel against expecting as much," he said.
In real estate, Canadian average home prices are expected to dip 0.3% in annual average terms this year, TD Economics wrote in a note.
"Our estimate of first half price growth is roughly unchanged from March. Looking ahead, we still see subdued second half gains, consistent with loose supply/demand balances, followed by a modest acceleration in price growth in 2027," said economist Rishi Sondhi.
TD's upgraded sales growth expectations for British Columbia and Ontario for the second half of this year show average prices in B.C. moving sideways and Ontario's falling further over the near term. Prices in both markets are expected to turn positive in 2027. In Quebec, price growth stays firm but continues to decelerate. Alberta prices are cooling, while Saskatchewan's "continues to run hot".