S&P/TSX Composite Index

Update: Bank of Canada Keeps on Hold as Expected, Tweaks GDP, Inflation Forecasts

(Updates with governor comments in 5th paragraph, CIBC comment in 8th paragraph.)The Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday, in line with expectations, maintaining a cautious approach as policymakers assessed a mixed economic outlook and easing inflation pressures.This was the sixth policy meeting in which Canada's central bank held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.The BoC's message is that it can remain patient, allowing time to assess incoming economic data before making any further policy adjustments, but stressing it can either cut or hike rates as the situation requires."Governing Council judges the current policy rate remains appropriate to sustain the economic recovery and bring inflation back to the 2% target," wrote the BoC in its policy statement, adding it's "prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed."Governor Tiff Macklem said in his opening statement that the key messages were that Canada's growth has resumed after a year of stagnation, supported by resilient consumers and adaptable businesses despite US trade pressures. Inflation is expected to ease gradually, but uncertainty remains elevated amid Middle East tensions and ongoing US trade talks.With core inflation at 1.6% year over year and BoC-focused median and trimmed measures at or close to the central bank's 2.0% target, inflation dynamics offer little support for a more hawkish policy stance.The economy remains weak, but so far doesn't appear to warrant further BoC stimulus. After contracting in late 2025 and early 2026, it rebounded more strongly than expected in April, while unemployment eased to 6.5% in June.The BoC "noted that the economy is improving and core inflation measures remain close to target, showing little sign of spillover from elevated energy prices," added CIBC Economics after the central bank's statement. CIBC sees the BoC leaving rates unchanged for the remainder of this year.As expected, the BoC tweaked its 2026 gross domestic product growth and inflation forecast to reflect a weaker economy at the start of the year and higher inflation as a result of surging energy prices amid the Middle East conflict.Wednesday's new Monetary Policy Report said the BoC now predicts GDP growth of 0.7% this year from April's 1.2% estimate. GDP is seen rising 1.8% next year and in 2028.The new MPR sees average 2026 inflation at 2.5%, up from April's 2.3% forecast. It predicts inflation at 2.0% next year and 2.1% in 2028.

Bank of Canada Keeps on Hold as Expected, Tweaks GDP, Inflation Forecasts

The Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday, in line with expectations, maintaining a cautious approach as policymakers assessed a mixed economic outlook and easing inflation pressures.This was the sixth policy meeting in which Canada's central bank held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.The BoC's message is that it can remain patient, allowing time to assess incoming economic data before making any further policy adjustments, but stressing it can either cut or hike rates as the situation requires."Governing Council judges the current policy rate remains appropriate to sustain the economic recovery and bring inflation back to the 2% target," wrote the BoC in its policy statement, adding it's "prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed."With core inflation at 1.6% year over year and BoC-focus median and trimmed measures at or close to the central bank's 2.0% target, inflation dynamics offer little support for a more hawkish policy stance.The economy remains weak, but so far doesn't appear to warrant further BoC stimulus. After contracting in late 2025 and early 2026, it rebounded more strongly than expected in April, while unemployment eased to 6.5% in June.As expected, the BoC tweaked its 2026 gross domestic product growth and inflation forecast to reflect a weaker economy at the start of the year and higher inflation as a result of surging energy prices amid the Middle East conflict.Wednesday's new Monetary Policy Report said the BoC now predicts GDP growth of 0.7% this year from April's 1.2% estimate. GDP is seen rising 1.8% next year and in 2028.The new MPR sees average 2026 inflation at 2.5%, up from April's 2.3% forecast. It predicts inflation at 2.0% next year and 2.1% in 2028.

Bank of Canada Governor Says Won't Let Higher Oil Prices Become 'Persistent Inflation'

Bank of Canada's MPR Sees Inflation Average Around 2% in 2027, 2028

Bank of Canada's New MPR Sees GDP Growth at 1.8% in 2027, 2028

Bank of Canada's New Monetary Policy Report Sees 2026 GDP Growth at 0.7% Vs. 1.2% in Prior MPR

Bank of Canada Says It's Prepared to Adjust Monetary Policy as Needed

Bank of Canada Says Uncertainty Is 'Still High'

Bank of Canada Says Sources of Economic Growth Appear to Be Broadening

Bank of Canada Keeps Rates Unchanged, as Expected

TSX Closer: The Index Rises as Base Metals, Financials Offset Broad Sector Weakness

The Toronto Stock Exchange rose on Tuesday as gains in base metals and financial stocks offset weakness across most other sectors, while higher gold prices supported sentimentThe S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 67.82 points, or 0.19%, at 35,320.54, despite a majority of sectors ending lower.Base Metals led gainers, up 3.65%, with Financial and Utilities, up 0.71% and 0.24%, respectively. Battery Metals Index led decliners, down 3.35%, while Health Care, down 0.83%, Industrials, down 0.74%, Telecom, down 1.40%, Information and Technology, down 1.78%, and Energy, down 0.92%.In commodities, gold rose off an eight-month low on Tuesday as the US dollar and yields weakened after US consumer prices eased in June, easing concerns rising prices would force higher interest rates.Gold for August delivery was last seen up $57.50, or 1.4%, to $4,063.20 per ounce, after falling to the lowest since Nov. 6 a day earlier. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index fell by 0.4% in June, down from a rise of 0.5% in May and against expectations for a fall of 0.2%, according to MarketWatch.Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose for a second day on Tuesday as renewed fighting between the US and Iran again threatens to keep Persian Gulf supply off the market.WTI crude oil for August delivery closed up $1.20, or 1.5%, to settle at $79.34 per barrel, the highest since June 15, while September Brent oil was last seen up $1.34, or 1.6%, to $84.64. Oil is now up 11% in the past two days after Iran and the US renewed fighting on the weekend.On the trade front, Canadian mushroom producers face the prospect of additional US duties.The US Commerce Department has proposed an 8.26% preliminary anti-dumping duty on most fresh mushrooms imported from Canada, following an investigation into whether Canadian producers were selling the product in the United States at unfairly low prices, reported The Canadian Press.Mushrooms Canada disputed the probe's finding.The US separately imposed a 2.84% countervailing duty on Canadian mushroom imports in May after the Commerce Department preliminarily concluded that producers had benefited from unfair government subsidies, a finding disputed by the industry.Looking ahead, investors will turn their attention to the Bank of Canada's policy decision this week.BoC's Governor Tiff Macklem is expected to strike a cautious tone at Wednesday's policy meeting, weighing persistent risks to growth against potential upside to inflation, according to Nomura Global Markets Research."That dilemma persists, and the overall outlook has not changed materially" since June's policy meeting, Nomura's Ruchir Sharma wrote in a note made available on Monday.Macklem previously said inflation risks had eased after the US-Iran ceasefire, but renewed tensions may prompt the BoC to remain cautious, said Nomura. With risks still balanced, the governor is likely to reaffirm that policy is well-positioned and responsive to evolving conditions.The BoC policy statement is due out at 9:45 a.m. ET Wednesday, followed shortly after by a press conference with Macklem. Nomura expects the central bank to keep the policy rate on hold at 2.25%, in line with the market consensus.In a survey published on Tuesday, Royal LePage predicts Canadian home prices will rise 2.0% annually in the fourth quarter of the year, reflecting an upgrade from its previous 1.0% forecast given in April. Quebec City is projected to record the strongest home price growth, with values expected to increase 8% annually in the fourth quarter, according to the forecast.The Greater Montreal Area and Winnipeg follow with estimated gains of 5%, while Halifax, Edmonton, and Regina are each expected to see prices rise 4%. Home prices in the Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto Areas are projected to decline by 3.5% and 2.0%, respectively.Besides, a proposed pipeline between Alberta and the west coast could represent a significant step toward improving Canada's energy export capacity and reducing the discount of Canadian oil, but the economic payoff remains years away, according to Rosenberg Research.The project would support Canada's efforts to diversify energy exports and reduce reliance on the US, which currently accounts for more than 80% of Canada's energy exports and over 90% of crude oil shipments, Rosenberg said in a note Tuesday. Additional export capacity could narrow the discount on Canadian heavy crude relative to the US WTI, added Rosenberg.Alberta estimates the current $10-$15 per barrel gap could shrink by around $3, improving returns for Canadian producers. At the start of the month, Canada's federal government, Alberta and British Columbia agreed to advance the new route for Canadian crude to reach global markets. The pipeline could transport up to one million barrels per day and require an investment estimated at C$35 billion to C$45 billion.

TSX up Over 75 Points at Midday; Materials, Energy, The Best Performers

The Toronto Stock Exchange is up more than 75 points at midday on Tuesday.The best performers are materials, up 3%, boosted by higher precious metals prices, and energy, up 1.1%.Info tech and telecoms are the worst performers , down 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively.In stocks, Mattr (MATR.TO) jumped 23% to $17.11 after it provided preliminary second-quarter results.Thomson Reuters (TRI.TO) said this morning that it is selling a 51% stake in its Global Print business to investment firm KKR for $500 million. its shares were last seen down 1.8% to C$130.83.

Amapa Minerals Files Preliminary Base Prospectus For Proposed IPO

Amapa Minerals has filed a preliminary base prospectus for a proposed initial public offering (IPO) of common shares.The IPO will be managed by Canaccord Genuity and BMO Capital Markets, as joint lead bookrunners. The number and price range of shares to be sold are still undetermined, the company said.Amapa Minerals' lead asset is the Amapa Project in northern Brazil, which is a past-producing gold operation that historically sold more than 1.5 million ounces of gold between 2005 and 2021.

Cadillac Mines Plans Initial Public Offering

Cadillac Mines has filed a preliminary prospectus for its proposed initial public offering on the Toronto Stock Exchange, the mineral exploration company said late Monday.Cadillac said it has yet to determine the size and price of the offering.The company recently changed its name from Gold Candle to Cadillac Mines to reflect its portfolio of gold and critical mineral projects at the Cadillac-Larder Lake Break in Ontario and Quebec.

TSX Closer: The Index Falls as Middle East Tensions Lift Oil, Investors Eye Bank of Canada Decision

The Toronto Stock Exchange fell on Monday as investors weighed renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a sharp jump in oil prices and expectations the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged this week.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 52.59 points, or 0.15%, to 35,252.72, with the majority of sectors closing higher.Energy led gainers, up 3,17%, with Battery Metals Index, Health Care, Utilities, Telecom, Industrials, and Information and Technology, up 0.50%, 1.18%, 0.10%, 0.65%, 0.14%, and 0.08%, respectively. Base Metals was down 2.58%, while Financial was down 0.37%In commodities, gold fell to its lowest level this month on Monday amid heightened inflation worries following renewed fighting between Iran and the US over the weekend. The precious metal for August delivery was last seen down $105.10, or 2.6%, to $4,008.60 per ounce, the lowest since June 24. The US on the weekend struck sites in Iran, while Tehran targeted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and US assets in neighboring countries.Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil surged 9.2% on Monday to the highest in a month after the Middle East conflict escalated, fueling concerns about potential disruptions to global crude supplies. WTI crude oil closed up $6.73 to settle at $78.14 per barrel, the highest since June 15, while September Brent crude was last seen up $7.39, or 9.7%, to $83.40.In currencies, ING sees limited upside for Canadian Dollar and forecasts USD/CAD at 1.36 in one year. The Canadian dollar is unlikely to receive much support from interest rate differentials because Canadian yields don't offer a compelling advantage over US yields, according to ING Global Markets Research in a note Monday.ING said it sees limited scope for markets to meaningfully bring forward expectations for Bank of Canada tightening, with only around 17 basis points of hikes currently priced by year-end. The bank forecasts the USD/CAD exchange rate at 1.41 in one month, at 1.39 in three months, at 1.37 in six months and at 1.36 in one year.Separately, Commerzbank said a "significant" appreciation of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar is unlikely to take place until there's a Federal Reserve repricing or progress in trade relations with the United States."Lower USD-CAD levels are unlikely to materialize until then," wrote Commerzbank Foreign Exchange Analyst Michael Pfister in the note on Monday. A renewed escalation in the Iran conflict could push oil prices higher and provide near-term support for the Canadian dollar, as Canada is a major oil exporter, noted Commerzbank.While economists broadly expect the Bank of Canada to remain on hold this week, some see the next policy move shifting toward tightening as the economy regains momentum. The BoC is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday for the sixth time in a row, acknowledging that inflation risks have eased as oil prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks, according to economists.Policymakers are also likely to reiterate that there is little evidence higher energy prices have spilled over into broader inflation, while emphasizing that they remain prepared to tighten policy if inflationary pressures re-emerge, said economists.UBS said in a note that it sees a hold decision at the BoC, keeping the policy rate at 2.25%. "We expect the signal to remain standing pat amidst ongoing uncertainty with the Governor likely to lean into the scenarios that could lead to hikes (broader inflation pressures and stronger growth) or cuts (ongoing economic weakness with narrowly driven headline price pressures)."Canada's economy is evolving broadly in line with expectations, with activity rebounding after an early-year soft patch, allowing Scotiabank Economics to predict the BoC will begin gradually hiking rates toward the end of 2026.April gross domestic product rose a stronger-than-expected 0.5% on the month, while labor market conditions are improving sooner than expected, wrote the bank in a note Monday. Scotiabank maintains its 2026 growth forecast of 0.9%, with momentum building as rate cuts support demand and government spending picks up. Growth is expected to accelerate to 2.2% next year.Meanwhile, attention also remained on Canada-US trade relations ahead of the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge later this month.The opening of the new Gordie Howe Bridge between Canada and the US is scheduled for July 27, following a weekend agreement that cleared unexpected concerns raised by President Donald Trump's administration over its launch, according to Scotiabank Economics.Although the resolution supports trade and cross-border activity, the dispute underscores lingering concerns over contract certainty, investment confidence and the durability of bilateral agreements with the United States, wrote Derek Holt, head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, in a Monday note.In corporate news, Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO, TD) unveiled a new payment platform for Canadian small and medium-sized businesses. The bank said it is offering the Clover all-in-one platform in Canada to help clients accept payments, manage their business and build customer relationships through an integrated ecosystem.The solution, to be offered under the TD Merchants Solution banner, combines point-of-sale hardware, payment processing, e-commerce tools and business management software, a statement said.

TSX Down 60 Points at Midday With Most Sectors Lower; Energy The Best Performer

The Toronto Stock Exchange is down 60 points at midday on Monday, with most sectors in the red.Materials, down 1.6%, is the biggest decliner, followed by financials, down 0.7%.The energy sector, up 2.6%, is the best performer, as oil prices hit a three-week high following the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran.In stocks, Greenfire Resources (GFR.TO) is up 9.7% to C$8.59 on the Toronto Stock Exchange after it said it is acquiring closely held oil-sands producer Connacher Oil and Gas for C$1.3 billion in cash.

TSX Closer: Index Gains as Battery Metals Rally, Investors Digest Mixed Labor Data

The Toronto Stock Exchange rose on Friday as gains in energy, financial and base-metals stocks outweighed weakness in telecom shares, while investors assessed mixed Canadian employment data.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 104.86 points, or 0.3%, to 35,305.31, with mixed sectors.Battery Metals Index led gainers, up 5.35%, with Information and Technology, Energy, Financial, and Base Metals, up 0.59%, 0.10%, 0.94%, and 0.94%, respectively. Telecom led decliners, down 0.65%, while Health Care, down 0.17%, Utilities, down 0.04%, and Industrials, down 0.12%.In commodities, gold traded lower on Friday as treasury yields rose. Goldl for August delivery was last seen down $27.30, or 0.7%, to $4,113.50 per ounce. The price of the metal has hovered above the $4,000 mark for the past two weeks, staying well under its Jan. 29 record high of $5,354.90.Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower on Friday as fighting between the U.S. and Iran continues, while some ships continue to move out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, boosting supply. WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down $0.67, or 0.9%, to settle at $71.41, while September Brent oil was last seen down $0.42, or 0.6%, to $75.88.In currencies, the UBS bank said the recent rise in the US dollar against the Canadian dollar has been driven by a widening divergence in interest rate expectations between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, making next week's BoC meeting a key focus for the currency pair.UBS is bearish on the Canadian dollar in the near term, expecting USD/CAD to stay elevated before easing toward 1.40 early next year.Despite Canadian inflation accelerating to more than 3% annually, UBS said the BoC remains one of the least likely major central banks to tighten policy, as persistent weakness in the Canadian economy continues to weigh on the outlook."We expect the BoC to leave its policy stance unchanged next week," wrote UBS in its note. Canada's central bank is scheduled to release its policy decision on Wednesday.Additionally, Canada's labor market showed mixed signals. Canada's labor market continued to cool in June, with employment a tad higher, thanks to private-sector job gains more than offsetting declines among public-sector workers, said the country's statistical agency in its Labour Force Survey (LFS) Friday.Canada gained 18,000 jobs, or 0.1% month over month, in June, while the unemployment rate edged down to 6.5% from 6.6%, according to Statistics Canada. The job increases were roughly in line with a 10,000 consensus rise provided by MUFG before the release of the LFS.The unemployment rate was expected to stay at 6.6% in the consensus. Private-sector employment increased by 32,000, or 0.2% monthly, which offset a 31,000 decline, or 0.7% month over month, in public-sector jobs, added StatsCan.Sector performance was mixed, led by 15,000 gains in accommodation and food services, while manufacturing fell by 17,000."Manufacturing, where job losses continue to mount, remains a poster child of the uncertainty hanging over the Canadian economy. It is a reminder that the economy continues to operate below capacity, with downside risks concentrated in trade-exposed sectors," wrote TD economist Maria Solovieva.CIBC's Andrew Grantham and Desjardins' Royce Mendes separately noted that the summer job market for youths improved for the second straight month, and the unemployment rate for 15-24 year olds fell to 12.7%, from 13.4% in May and 14.3% in April. Mendes linked this improvement to the reduction in non-permanent residents, with the youth population shrinking in 2026.

TSX up Near 65 Points at Midday, Info Tech, Materials, Top Gainers

The Toronto Stock Exchange is up near 65 points at midday on Friday.Info tech (+0.8%) and materials (+0.7%) are the top gainers, followed by financial, up 0.4%.Healthcare, down 0.7%, is the biggest decliner, followed by energy, down 0.4%.In economic news, June's employment figures posted an 18,000 job gain, beating consensus expectations of an 11,000 gain. Youth employment figures rose for the second straight month, but manufacturing and construction continued to suffer job losses.In stocks, MTY Foods (MTY.TO) is down over 8% to C$34.60 after it reported a Q2 earnings and revenue miss. The company, which announced a strategic review of its operations last November, said it is shuttering 68 corporate locations at a cost of between C$10 million to C$12 million.

Canada's Job Market Cools as Expected in June as Private-Sector Gains Offset Public-Sector Losses

Canada's labor market continued to cool in June, with employment tad higher, thanks to private-sector job gains more than offsetting declines among public-sector workers, said the country's statistical agency in its Labour Force Survey Friday.Canada gained 18,000 jobs, or 0.1% month over month, in June, while the unemployment rate edged down to 6.5% from 6.6%, according to Statistics Canada.The job increases were roughly in line with a 10,000 consensus rise provided by MUFG before the release of the LFS. The unemployment rate was expected to stay at 6.6% in the consensus.Private-sector employment increased by 32,000, or 0.2% monthly, which offset a 31,000 decline, or 0.7% month over month, in public-sector jobs, added StatsCan. Sector performance was mixed, led by 15,000 gains in accommodation and food services, while manufacturing fell by 17,000.Average hourly wages among employees were up 3.3% on a year-over-year basis in June, said the Ottawa-based agency.The monthly LFS estimates are based on a sample and are therefore subject to sampling variability. As a result, monthly estimates will show more variability than trends observed over longer time periods. This analysis focuses on differences between estimates that are statistically significant at the 68% confidence level.LFS estimates at the Canada level don't include the territories. The LFS estimates are the first in a series of labor market indicators released by StatsCan, which includes indicators from programs such as the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH); Employment Insurance Statistics; and the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey.

Canada's Average Hourly Wages Among Employees Rises 3.3% Y/Y in June