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Update: US Equity Indexes Jump as Washington's Strikes to Prevent Iran From Controlling Hormuz Drive Crude Oil Lower
(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data, and company/geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes rose as Washington's move to degrade Iran's ability to control the Strait of Hormuz by attacking commercial ships transiting the critical waterway sent crude oil prices lower, setting the stage for investors to refocus on technology.The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.3% to 26,206.89, the S&P 500 climbed 0.8% to 7,543.64, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average marched 0.3% higher to 52,487.41 on Thursday. Technology and consumer discretionary led the gainers, while consumer staples and energy paced the decliners.US Central Command has hit 170 Iranian military targets over the past two nights after Tehran attacked three commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for about a fifth of global crude oil flows. On Wednesday, before the second round of 90 strikes, US Vice President JD Vance said: "If Iran tries to close the strait down, there's going to be a response [from] the American military. That's the deal."The renewed tension is expected to be relatively short-lived because practical economic and political realities inhibit both the US and Iran, Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie, said in a note. The US is constrained by the risk that oil prices could rise, undermining the Federal Reserve's ability to ease inflation to its 2% target. The Fed's June 16-17 meeting minutes, released Wednesday, showed a wide diversity of views on the monetary policy path ahead."Iran has come through the negotiations with (arguably) a great deal," Dwivedi said. "We would be surprised if they overplay a good hand and test President Trump's patience and restraint for minimal remaining gain."In response to the new US strikes on infrastructure, Iran attacked US military sites in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, according to reports from Reuters and Al Jazeera, a Middle Eastern broadcaster, on Thursday. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke with his counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Oman, as well as Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, to explain Tehran's rationale, the Associated Press reported Thursday, citing Araghchi's Telegram channel."The question confronting traders is whether Iran is willing to return to large-scale kinetic war with the US and its allies if necessary to strengthen its claim of control over the Strait of Hormuz, something that it has apparently not been granted by way of any diplomatic negotiations so far," Thierry Wizman, global foreign-exchange and rates strategist at Macquarie, said in a note Thursday.Front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent dropped 2.6% to $76.02 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate declined 2.4% to $71.78 a barrel, trading near intraday lows.The CBOE Volatility Index, also known as the fear gauge, dropped 6.3% to 15.84.Most US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 1.8 basis points to 4.55% and the two-year declining 2.9 basis points to 4.17%.Gold futures advanced 1.5% to $4,142.3, and silver futures jumped 4% to $60.89.In economic news, US initial jobless claims fell sequentially to 215,000 in the week ended July 4 from an upwardly revised 217,000, compared with expectations for 217,000 in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. The four-week moving average declined by 3,750 to 218,750.In company news, Micron Technology (MU) increased its planned US investment to more than $250 billion through 2035 and outlined intentions to invest up to $3 billion to bolster the domestic semiconductor supply chain, sending the company's shares higher Thursday.
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