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Update: US Equity Indexes Jump as Washington's Strikes to Prevent Iran From Controlling Hormuz Drive Crude Oil Lower

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(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data, and company/geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)

US equity indexes rose as Washington's move to degrade Iran's ability to control the Strait of Hormuz by attacking commercial ships transiting the critical waterway sent crude oil prices lower, setting the stage for investors to refocus on technology.

The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.3% to 26,206.89, the S&P 500 climbed 0.8% to 7,543.64, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average marched 0.3% higher to 52,487.41 on Thursday. Technology and consumer discretionary led the gainers, while consumer staples and energy paced the decliners.

US Central Command has hit 170 Iranian military targets over the past two nights after Tehran attacked three commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for about a fifth of global crude oil flows. On Wednesday, before the second round of 90 strikes, US Vice President JD Vance said: "If Iran tries to close the strait down, there's going to be a response [from] the American military. That's the deal."

The renewed tension is expected to be relatively short-lived because practical economic and political realities inhibit both the US and Iran, Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie, said in a note. The US is constrained by the risk that oil prices could rise, undermining the Federal Reserve's ability to ease inflation to its 2% target. The Fed's June 16-17 meeting minutes, released Wednesday, showed a wide diversity of views on the monetary policy path ahead.

"Iran has come through the negotiations with (arguably) a great deal," Dwivedi said. "We would be surprised if they overplay a good hand and test President Trump's patience and restraint for minimal remaining gain."

In response to the new US strikes on infrastructure, Iran attacked US military sites in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, according to reports from Reuters and Al Jazeera, a Middle Eastern broadcaster, on Thursday. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke with his counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Oman, as well as Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, to explain Tehran's rationale, the Associated Press reported Thursday, citing Araghchi's Telegram channel.

"The question confronting traders is whether Iran is willing to return to large-scale kinetic war with the US and its allies if necessary to strengthen its claim of control over the Strait of Hormuz, something that it has apparently not been granted by way of any diplomatic negotiations so far," Thierry Wizman, global foreign-exchange and rates strategist at Macquarie, said in a note Thursday.

Front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent dropped 2.6% to $76.02 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate declined 2.4% to $71.78 a barrel, trading near intraday lows.

The CBOE Volatility Index, also known as the fear gauge, dropped 6.3% to 15.84.

Most US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 1.8 basis points to 4.55% and the two-year declining 2.9 basis points to 4.17%.

Gold futures advanced 1.5% to $4,142.3, and silver futures jumped 4% to $60.89.

In economic news, US initial jobless claims fell sequentially to 215,000 in the week ended July 4 from an upwardly revised 217,000, compared with expectations for 217,000 in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. The four-week moving average declined by 3,750 to 218,750.

In company news, Micron Technology (MU) increased its planned US investment to more than $250 billion through 2035 and outlined intentions to invest up to $3 billion to bolster the domestic semiconductor supply chain, sending the company's shares higher Thursday.

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Update: US Equity Indexes Recover From Session Lows as Iran Strikes Designed to Stop Islamic Republic From Hormuz Attacks

(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data, and political news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes closed off session lows after President Donald Trump said strikes against Tehran should not be interpreted as a return to full-scale war, and his Deputy JD Vance signaled Washington is attempting to stop Iran from attacking maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.1% to 52,348.39, with the S&P 500 down by 0.3% to 7,482.71 on Wednesday. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% to 25,870.65, after trading about 1% lower intraday. Technology and energy were the only gainers. Materials, real estate, and consumer discretionary led the decliners.The CBOE Volatility Index jumped 4.8% to 16.90, retreating from a gain of about 13% around midday.The US has launched more strikes against Iran "to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz," US Central Command said Wednesday, according to CNN. Iranian state media reported explosions in several cities, including Bushehr, Chabahar, Konarak, Bandar Abbas, and Sirik.Trump had said earlier in the day that the latest back-and-forth fighting would not result in "long-term" military action, according to the Associated Press.US Vice President JD Vance has warned Iran of a military response if it attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz, Al Jazeera, a Middle Eastern broadcaster, reported. "If Iran tries to close the strait down, there's going to be a response [from] the American military. That's the deal," said Vance."They can either follow it [terms of the June memorandum of understanding], or they can have exactly what happened last night. It's just gonna keep on happening until they open up that lane and stop shooting at ships," Vance told a news briefing in Washington, D.C., according to Al Jazeera.The front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent soared 6.8% to $79.19 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate advanced 6.1% to $74.70 a barrel.Most US Treasury yields rose, but came off their highest for the day. The two-year yield was up 5.6 basis points to 4.22%, and the 10-year traded 5.2 basis points higher at 4.58%.Gold futures dropped 1.6% to $4,091.7, and silver futures slumped 4.3% to $58.70, partially recovering intraday lossesIn economic news, the June 16-17 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed widespread disagreement among participants, according to the minutes released Wednesday."Most participants remarked on scenarios in which inflationary pressures would dissipate and inflation would soon begin to return to 2%," the minutes showed. "In such scenarios, almost all of these participants noted that it would likely be appropriate to maintain or eventually lower the target range for the federal funds rate."However, some policymakers noted that outcomes such as stable labor market conditions and elevated inflation, driven by AI-related demand, further conflict in the Middle East, and tariffs, could result in monetary tightening to ease inflation to the Fed's 2% target.

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Asia Markets

Exchange-Traded Funds Lower as US Equities Fall After Midday

Broad Market IndicatorsBroad-market exchange-traded funds IWM and IVV fell. Actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) lost 0.2%.US equity indexes fell while volatility surged with crude oil and government bond yields after President Donald Trump warned of more strikes on Iran after saying a peace deal signed in June "is over."EnergyIShares US Energy ETF (IYE) and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) each added about 1.1%.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) rose 0.5%; iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) added 0.1%, and iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was up 0.2%.The State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD) climbed up 1.7%, and iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) gained 1.7%.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) fell 1.5%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) dropped 4.6%, and its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), advanced 4.6%.CommoditiesCrude oil rose 6.1%, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) added 3.7%. Natural gas lost 1.4%, and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was down 1.2%.Gold on Comex dipped 2.2%, and the State Street SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) fell 1.2%. Silver was down 5.1%, and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was 3.8% lower.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) slipped 0.1%. The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) eased 0.2%, and iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods (IYK) was down 0.6%.The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) fell 2%. VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) eased 0.3%, and the State Street SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) dipped 1.7%.HealthcareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) fell 0.8%, iShares US Healthcare (IYH) lost 1%, and Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) was down 0.9%. IShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) shed 1.4%.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) dipped 1.1%. Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) and iShares US Industrials (IYJ) were also lower.CryptocurrencyIn midday activity, bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell 2.8%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) lost 2.7%, ProShares Ether ETF (EETH) was down 3.6%, and ProShares Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) was 2.8% lower.

Dow Jones^EEM^EXI^FAS^FAZ^GLD^IBB^IGM^IGV^IPK^IVV^IWMNasdaq Composite^IYE^IYH^IYJ^IYK^IYW^PMR^QQQ^RTH^SOXXS&P 500^SPY^UNG^USO^VDC^VHT^VIS^XLE^XLF^XLI^XLK^XLP^XLV^XRT^XSD$BETH$BITO$EETH
Asia Markets

Update: US Equity Indexes Decline, Crude Oil Jumps as Trump's Threats to Strike Iran Again Elevate Geopolitical Risk

(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data, and political news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes fell while volatility jumped with crude oil and government bond yields after President Donald Trump warned of more strikes on Iran after saying a peace deal signed in June "is over"The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.2% to 52,294.8, with the Nasdaq Composite down 0.2% to 25,760.5, and the S&P 500 lower by 0.5% to 7,469.1 after midday Wednesday.Energy was the standout gainer, with Valero Energy (VLO), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Phillips 66 (PSX) leading the S&P 500. Chevron (CVX) was the Dow's top gainer. On Nasdaq, the top spot went to Baker Hughes (BKR).The CBOE Volatility Index jumped 6% to 17 after Trump said, per a Bloomberg report, the US would probably launch further strikes on Iran and could resume a blockade on the country's ports.American forces launched strikes against more than 80 targets in Iran, including air defense systems, command-and-control networks, coastal radar installations and anti-ship missile capabilities, in response to recent attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a Deutsche Bank note on Wednesday. The strikes were accompanied by the US Treasury's decision to revoke a waiver that had allowed new Iranian oil sales, it said."We hit them very hard last night," Trump said Wednesday on the sidelines of a summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization leaders in Ankara, Turkey. "Probably hit them hard again tonight."The front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent soared 7% to $79.37 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate surged 6.9% to $75.29 a barrel.After the burial ceremony of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - killed by an Israeli strike at the outset of the conflict - ends on July 9, both warring sides could adopt an even harder stance, driving a further uptick in geopolitical risk premiums, according to a note from Rystad Energy."Even if no sustained physical disruption materializes, uncertainty around vessel safety, insurance costs, potential delays, and the risk of further retaliation is likely to keep volatility elevated in the near term," the Rystad note said.US Treasury yields rose, reflecting market concern that higher crude oil prices, driven by a supply shock, will make it harder for the Federal Reserve to fight inflation. The two-year yield jumped 5.8 basis points to 4.22%, and the 10-year climbed 6.2 basis points to 4.59%.Inflation concerns also sent gold futures down 2.7% to $4,045.6 and silver futures lower by 5.5% to $57.98.In economic news, the minutes from the Fed's policy meeting on June 16-17 are due at 2 pm ET. Investors will parse the views on the direction of interest rates at a time when the market is pricing in hikes. The probability of a 25-basis-point increase in rates is the highest among all other policy outcomes in September, October, and December, the CME FedWatch tool showed Wednesday.Meanwhile, in company news, Apple (AAPL) said Wednesday that Broadcom (AVGO) will produce chips for use in the iPhone maker's products in a deal likely worth more than $30 billion.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$AAPL.AVGO$BKR$CVX$OXY$PSX$VLO