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US Equity Investors to Focus on Banks Kicking Off Q2 Earnings, Warsh's Take on Inflation, Worsening Geopolitics This Week

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US equity investors will focus on Q2 earnings this week, with big money-centre banks kicking off the earnings season in earnest, and consumer price inflation data amid an escalation of tensions with Iran.

* JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citibank (C), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Wells Fargo (WFC) are among banks reporting quarterly earnings, with investors expecting results to help counter tense geopolitics. ASML (ASML) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) are among the others reporting, giving investors a fresh take on the state of the so-called AI trade.

* Investors will look out for consumer and wholesale price inflation data amid the market pricing in at least one interest rate increase this year. Additionally, Federal Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony is due, alongside retail sales, Michigan consumer sentiment, and inflation expectations.

* The combined probability that rates will be higher by 25 or 50 basis points from current levels by December is around 70%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Investors will parse Warsh's testimony, which comes amid a worsening geopolitical environment and higher crude oil prices. Fed's June meeting minutes, released last week, showed "quite a divide" on the rate path given the impact of the war in Iran on inflation, a Stifel note said on Friday.

* The US and Iran each asserted Monday they controlled the Strait of Hormuz after a weekend of attacks stretching across the wider Middle East, further threatening any diplomacy to end the war, the Associated Press reported early Monday.

* Iran and the US are nearly at the midway point of a 60-day period that was supposed to result in a permanent end to the war, the news report said. Instead, it has devolved into a series of attacks over the strait and its future, worrying world leaders that the Iran war could fully resume, it added.

* Early Monday, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures jumped 3.4% to $73.87 a barrel.

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Saudi Shares Start Week Higher Amid US-Iran Focus

The Tadawul All Share Index closed trading at 0.10% in the green as the latest geopolitical updates of the US-Iran conflict took the global spotlight on Sunday.Iran and the US launched back-and-forth strikes against each other in Gulf states. The missile and drone attacks resulted in Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz again."Asian stocks rose sharply on Friday, led by chip and AI firms as investors brushed off concern over the stalled recovery of energy supplies through the critical Strait of Hormuz, with tit-for-tat attacks escalating between the U.S. and Iran. The renewed back-and-forth attacks have further eroded the fragile three-week-old ceasefire, bringing the spotlight back on oil prices and what they could mean for inflation and the global rates outlook," United Securities LLC said in a note.Looking ahead, the economic calendar will see the release of the US' June inflation print on Tuesday, with Saudi Arabia following suit on Wednesday.Back at home and on the corporate front, Knowledge Economic City Co. (SASE:4310) shares ticked up 1.11% as it signed a nonbinding term sheet to create a closed-ended private real estate investment fund for the Multaqa Almadinah project's Multaqa Hospitality Cluster 1.Meanwhile, Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Co. (SASE:4325) entered into reservation deals with Watheeq Real Estate Opportunities Second Fund for the sale of three land plots in Makkah. Shares of the real estate developer closed 2.02% higher.

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Asia Markets

Update: US Equity Indexes Rise as Diplomatic Engagements Between Washington, Iran Send Crude Oil Lower

(Updates with index/price moves and company/geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes rose amid a broad-based rally as crude oil extended declines after Washington replaced air strikes on Iran with diplomatic engagements.The Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.3% to 26,281.61, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.3% to 52,637.01 and the S&P 500 higher by 0.4% to 7,575.39 on Friday. All but one sector, healthcare, rose. Materials led the gainers.The CBOE Volatility Index, also known as the fear gauge, dropped 5.1% to 15.03.Talks between the US and Iran over a permanent peace deal are continuing, Bloomberg reported, citing an American official. The US is still committed to finding a diplomatic solution with Iran, the official told Bloomberg on Thursday. The official described the ongoing discussions as technical talks.Iran had asked to continue talks, and the US agreed, but the June ceasefire is "over," President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post."The US has said that progress on the MoU is 'performance-based', and therefore, as long as Iran moves forward with a certain behaviour such as allowing the right of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the US will move forward with what was promised to Iran," Al Jazeera, a Middle Eastern broadcaster, reported Friday, citing Dania Thafer, executive director at Gulf International Forum.At least 15 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, CNN reported, citing MarineTraffic data.The front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent slipped 0.4% to $76.02 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate retreated 0.7% to $71.56 a barrel, extending declines from Thursday.Most US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year up 1.8 basis points to 4.56% and the two-year climbing 4.6 basis points to 4.21% as investors watched geopolitical developments and awaited the consumer price index data for June next week, as the June 16-17 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed widespread disagreement among participants in relation to inflationary pressures.In precious metal markets, gold futures fell 0.5% to $4,119.4, and silver futures declined 1% to $60.16.In company news, SK Hynix (SKHY, SKHYV) jumped 13% after listing its American depositary receipts on Nasdaq, with trading volume exceeding 105.8 million.Shares of Meta Platforms (META) jumped almost 6%, the top gainer on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, after a Bloomberg report cited Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg as saying the company is considering renting out some of its artificial intelligence compute as demand for AI infrastructure surges.Moderna (MRNA) was the worst performer on the S&P 500, down nearly 11%.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$META$MRNA$SKHY$SKHYV
Asia Markets

US Equity Indexes Mixed This Week as Investors Chase Growth After Washington Strikes Aim to Free Hormuz From Iran's Control

US equity indexes traded mixed this week as growth sectors lifted the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 after Washington struck Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz out of the Islamic Republic's control.The S&P 500 closed at 7,575.39 on Friday, versus 7,483.24 a week ago. The Nasdaq Composite stood at about 26,281.61, compared with 25,832.67 a week earlier. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 52,637.01, versus 52,900.07 at the end of last week.* Technology, consumer cyclicals, and communication services were among the top five sectors. Industrials, materials, and health care led the decliners.* Five Magnificent-7 stocks rose this week, led by Meta Platforms (META). SK Hynix (SKHY, SKHYV) surged following the listing of its American depositary shares on the Nasdaq.* US Central Command struck 170 Iranian military targets over two nights after Tehran attacked three commercial ships transiting the Strait. Iran attacked US military sites in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar. "If Iran tries to close the Strait down, there's going to be a response [from] the American military. That's the deal," US Vice President JD Vance said.* "Iran has come through the negotiations with (arguably) a great deal," according to a Macquarie note. "We would be surprised if they overplay a good hand and test Pres. Trump's patience and restraint for minimal remaining gain."* "The question confronting traders is whether Iran is willing to return to large-scale kinetic war with the US and its allies if necessary to strengthen its claim of control over the Strait of Hormuz, something that it has apparently not been granted by way of any diplomatic negotiations so far," a separate Macquarie note said.* The US is still committed to finding a diplomatic solution with Iran, an American official told Bloomberg on Thursday. The official described the ongoing discussions with Tehran as technical talks. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell on Friday to $71.62, retreating from an intra-week high.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$META$SKHY$SKHYV