The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the Australian labor market has been small so far, but the landscape is quickly rapidly, with the data pointing to the labor market changing in shape more than size, Jarden said in a report on Thursday.
Deloitte Access Economics' Employment Forecasts report shows that so far, there is no observable divergence in employment growth between AI-disrupted and other occupations since AI emerged in 2022. It flagged a possible near-term inflationary impact from AI infrastructure investment, before any later disinflationary efficiency gain shows through.
Occupations disrupted by AI are projected to grow by around 167,200 fewer workers over five years. Industry exposure is concentrated in financial, professional, scientific, and technical services, as well as information media.
The Department of Employment and Workplace Relations' (DEWR) AI and Employment in Australia report found that employment in the most AI-exposed occupations grew 5.6% since Nov. 2022, compared with 9.5% in the least-exposed occupations. By February, employment sat around 2% below where the trend from before the launch of ChatGPT would have placed it.
However, US data shows disruption at both junior and senior levels, with particular concern around entry-level roles.
AI is expected to differentiate performance within the office real estate sector, with non-core suburban and metro markets at most risk, while premium-grade central business district assets forecast to prove relatively more resilient.
Among real estate investment trusts, Dexus (ASX:DXS) carries the highest core-market weighting at 53%, ahead of GPT Group (ASX:GPT) at 31% as well as Mirvac (ASX:MGR) at 20%, positioning them comparatively better than portfolios skewed to secondary, non-core stock.
Proposed national AI standards are expected to add costs for data center developers, but also bring faster approvals and greater certainty.