S&P/ASX 200

RBA Press Conference: Productivity Not Part of Meeting-by-Meeting Decision, But a Consideration Over a Period of a Year or Two

RBA Press Conference: RBA Did Not Consider Hiking Interest Rates at This Meeting

RBA Press Conference: Outcome of Fair Works Commission Was Higher Than We Had Factored Into Our Forecast

--RBA Press Conference: Economy Expected to Grow Slower This Quarter, Which is Needed to Try and Get Inflation Down

RBA Press Conference: Today's Decision Does Not Rule Out Further Tightening If That Is What Is Required to Bring Inflation Down

Reserve Bank of Australia Leaves Cash Rate Unchanged at 4.35%

The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, according to the central bank's monetary policy statement released Tuesday.The bank said financial conditions are now tighter following three rate increases since the beginning of the year, with signs the economy is slowing as expected. However, inflation remains too high, prompting the board to leave the cash rate unchanged while assessing the impact of previous rises and the oil supply disruption.Inflation picked up materially in the second half of 2025, with capacity pressures contributing to the increase, the bank said, adding that headline and underlying inflation remain too high even as oil prices have eased in recent weeks.Energy and most related commodity prices remain higher than before the Middle East conflict, with some firms raising prices or looking to do so, while short-term inflation expectations have eased but remain above earlier levels, the RBA added.Growth in consumer spending is slowing as expected, and housing market momentum has shifted, with prices falling in some capital cities, the bank said. It noted that the unemployment rate was higher than expected in April, although other labor market measures have been more resilient.RBA added that heightened uncertainties persist around domestic activity and inflation, given the early-stage resolution of the Middle East conflict.Global oil supply issues will take time to resolve, maintaining upward pressure on energy prices and inflation, while a period of prolonged uncertainty may also weigh on growth in Australia's major trading partners and domestically, it added.

Reserve Bank of Australia Leaves Cash Rate Target Unchanged at 4.35%

ASX Midday Sector Update: Energy Stocks Advance, Consumer Discretionary Sector Struggles

Energy stocks advanced nearly 1% at midday Tuesday.Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS) gained more than 1% in recent trade.On the flip side, the consumer discretionary sector struggled, shedding nearly 2%.Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) shares were down almost 2% in recent trade.

IMF Sees Global Economy Holding Up Amid Middle East Conflict

The global economy has remained resilient despite the Middle East conflict, supported by strong growth in the U.S. and China, though energy importers remain vulnerable, according to a Monday blog by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.Oil prices remain about 30% above pre-war levels, contributing to higher inflation in many economies.However, inflation expectations have generally remained anchored, while financial markets have held up and global financial conditions remain accommodative, Georgieva said.She said investment in artificial intelligence and data centers continues to support growth, particularly in the U.S. and parts of Asia, helping offset the impact of higher energy costs.The IMF warned that countries heavily reliant on energy imports, especially in Africa and parts of Asia, face mounting pressure from higher fuel, food, and financing costs.The fund said policymakers should maintain price stability and fiscal discipline while remaining prepared to respond to prolonged disruptions.

Australian Consumer Confidence Falls as Middle East Tensions Weigh on Sentiment

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian consumer confidence edged down 0.1 points to 70.7 in the week of June 8 to June 14, ANZ reported Tuesday.The four-week moving average rose 1.1 points to 69.1 points.Household sentiment improved on personal finances and major purchases, even as confidence in broader economic conditions slipped amid escalating Middle East tensions, according to ANZ economist Sophia Angala.The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold the cash rate at 4.35% at Tuesday's meeting as rising unemployment, subdued household spending, a soft housing market, and historically low confidence reinforce the case for policy stability, Angala added.Weekly inflation expectations fell to 6% from 6.1%, while the current financial condition indicator for 12 months increased 2.6 points to 62.7. The future financial conditions for the next 12 months increased to 78.6 points from 78.4.Short-term economic confidence for the next year fell 1.3 points to 60, while medium-term economic confidence for the next five years decreased to 77.6 points from 80.4.The "time to buy a major household item" subcategory rose 0.9 points to 74.7.

ASX Preview: Australian Shares Set to Fall as Oil Drop on US-Iran Deal; Atlas Arteria Says IFM Global Unit Lifts Stake

Australian shares are poised to fall on Tuesday after oil prices tumbled to a three-month low following reports that the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, erasing much of the crude's war-risk premium.Overnight, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.7%, 3.1%, and 0.9%, respectively.In the macroeconomy, investors are eyeing the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision.In corporate news, Atlas Arteria (ASX:ALX) received notice that IFM Global Infrastructure Fund subsidiary Diamond Infraco 1 and its affiliates increased their holdings in the company to 38.26% from 34.48%.Including those held by or on behalf of the listed equity funds, Diamond Infraco 1 and its affiliates now have a 39.61% stake in Atlas Arteria, compared with 35.68% from the previous notice.HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (ASX:HDN) has reported a preliminary unaudited portfolio valuation gain of AU$92 million, or 1.8%, as at June 30, increasing the value of its portfolio to AU$5.19 billion from AU$5.1 billion at Dec. 31, 2025, primarily driven by net operating income growth.Australia's benchmark index rose 1.3% or 110 points to close at 8,914 on Monday.

Asia Week Ahead: Central Bank Decisions; Inflation; and Trade

The week ahead in Asia will be packed with a number of central bank decisions and macroeconomic data, with investors set to track the impact of the Middle East conflict on regional economies.The economic calendar starts quietly on Monday with services activity data from Japan, whole inflation figures from India and New Zealand's services PMI.Activity picks up Tuesday as the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Japan announce policy decisions, while China releases a batch of closely watched activity indicators.Wednesday shifts the focus to trade, with Japan and Singapore due to report May figures.Thursday brings a cluster of central bank decisions from Taiwan, Indonesia and the Philippines, with New Zealand's first-quarter GDP and Thailand's trade data also on deck.Friday rounds out the week with inflation data from Japan and Malaysia, with New Zealand reporting trade numbers.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, June 14The week was off to a relatively light start with a handful of releases from India, New Zealand, and Japan.Japan released its tertiary industry activity index for April, a measure of change in the total value of services provided and consumed by the country's service sector.The index rose a seasonally adjusted 1.3% month on month, reversing from a 0.6% decline in the prior month and recording its first increase in three months.It also beat the Trading Economics forecast of a 0.5% increase.In New Zealand, the BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index fell to 47.5 in May from a downwardly revised 48.7 in April, marking a fourth straight month of contraction in the services sector. Trading Economics said the decline came as the Iran war weighed on business activity.India's annual wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation rate rose to 9.68% year over year in May. The reading was higher than the consensus forecast of 9.10% tracked by Investing.com and compared with an 8.26% pace recorded in the prior month.Later Monday, India reports unemployment stats for May.TUESDAY, June 16Macro activity picks up Tuesday with central bank decisions scheduled in Australia and Japan, and a slew of monthly data from China.The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold the official cash rate steady at 4.35%, according to a Trading Economics consensus.Economists at National Australia Bank said the latest decision would mark the end of the tightening cycle, with the next move likely down and now expected in the second quarter of 2027.In contrast, the Bank of Japan is forecasted to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 1%, according to a Trading Economics consensus estimate.Bloomberg reported earlier June that the central bank was considering raising the policy rate amid high uncertainties over the Middle East conflict. Officials were expected to sift through as much data as possible until the last minute before making a final decision, though the decision to raise rates was unlikely to be unanimous, according to the report.China's industrial production and retail sales stats will also be in the news, alongside monthly unemployment and housing price data.Markets will review the figures to gauge how well the country's economy is faring amid the Middle East conflict. According to the Wall Street Journal, the data is likely to indicate overall improvement and economic resilience despite the macro headwinds.Hong Kong will report unemployment data the same day, while trade stats will be in focus in India and South Korea.In New Zealand, markets will await food inflation data which is expected to show "modest increases," according to CommBank.WEDNESDAY, June 17Focus shifts Wednesday to trade data from Singapore and Japan.Japan is expected to record a trade deficit of 564.6 billion yen in May, reversing from a 301.9 billion yen surplus a month earlier, according to a Trading Economics consensus.Wednesday will also bring the Reuters Tankan Index for June, a key gauge of Japanese business confidence, along with monthly machinery orders data.Meanwhile, Singapore's trade surplus is expected to narrow to $7 billion in May from $13.07 billion in April, according to Trading Economics. The city-state is also due to release monthly non-oil export data.A forward-looking report from Westpac capturing consumer confidence in New Zealand is also scheduled for Wednesday.THURSDAY, June 18Central banks across Taiwan, Indonesia and The Philippines will meet for interest rate decisions Thursday.Bank Indonesia will be in focus after it unexpectedly raised interest rates by 25 basis points earlier this month to support the rupiah.While some economists expect the central bank to deliver another 25 basis point hike, ING expects Bank Indonesia to hold rates steady and instead prioritize alternative measures to attract foreign capital inflows and stabilize the currency.The Philippines' central bank, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, is widely expected to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% amid persistent inflationary pressure, according to a Trading Economics consensus.Meanwhile, Taiwan's central bank is expected to hold rates steady at 2%. ING said it will be monitoring the Central Bank of the Republic of China's press conference for clues on a possible rate hike in the third quarter.Elsewhere, New Zealand will report its first quarter gross domestic product growth rate. CommBank said it expects quarterly growth to reach 0.8%, shy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's 1% forecast.While the economy started 2026 with a decent moment, there will be "pockets of weakness" highlighting that economic recovery was a "bit patchy," CommBank said in a preview.Lastly, Thursday will feature Thailand's trade figures for May.FRIDAY, June 19The week rounds off with closely watched inflation data from Japan.According to ING, May's consumer prices could record a rise of 1.6% year on year, accelerating marginally from 1.4% in April. The subdued increase would reflect government measures, though price pressures are likely to broaden, ING said.Malaysia's headline inflation, also due the same day, is similarly expected to show a marginal rise to 2% year-on-year in May from 1.9% in April due to government fuel subsidies and stable food prices, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing DBS.Malaysia will additionally report monthly trade figures on Friday, while Macao will release monthly inflation data the same day.Trade figures from New Zealand will also feature Friday. According to a Trading Economics consensus, New Zealand's May trade surplus could narrow to NZ$875 million from NZ$1.92 billion a month earlier.South Korea's producer price inflation will also be among the highlights of the day.

Australian Shares Rally; Vault Minerals on Track to Deliver Fiscal Year 2026 Gold Production Guidance

Australian shares continued their rally on Monday after the US and Iran said they had reached a deal to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz.The S&P/ASX 200 Index jumped 1.25%, or 110 points, to close at 8,914.US President Donald Trump said that the US and Iran would sign the agreement on Friday, and the Strait of Hormuz would open. Brent crude oil fell over 4% to around $83 per barrel.On the domestic front, capital city housing prices in Australia are forecast to fall 2.1% this year and 3.3% in 2027, ANZ Research said. The bank had previously forecast 2.8% growth in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. It attributed the reduction in forecasts to a combination of global uncertainty, three consecutive cash rate hikes, and recent housing policy changes, which have led to a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the housing market.In company news, Vault Minerals (ASX:VAU) is on track to deliver fiscal year 2026 gold production guidance of 332,000 to 360,000 ounces after achieving production of 306,542 ounces in the fiscal year to date through May.Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS) confirmed in a bourse filing that it is not engaged in talks on a potential transaction with Exxon Mobil after media reports said it was among several potential acquisition targets being evaluated by the US energy giant.Ora Banda Mining (ASX:OBM) entered into a AU$233 million engineering, procurement, and construction contract with GR Engineering Services (ASX:GNG) to deliver a 3 million tonnes per annum processing plant at Ora Banda Mining's Davyhurst Mill Expansion Project in Western Australia.

Australian Capital City Housing Prices Forecast to Fall in 2026, ANZ Says

Capital city housing prices in Australia are forecast to fall 2.1% this year and 3.3% in 2027, ANZ Research said in a report on Monday.The bank had previously forecast 2.8% growth in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. It attributed the reduction in forecasts to a combination of global uncertainty, three consecutive cash rate hikes, and recent housing policy changes which have led to a sharper than expected slowdown in the housing market.Housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne are expected to fall around 8% in 2026, with prices at a nine-month low in Sydney and a 12-month low in Melbourne. A price correction in Adelaide in South Australia is seen to lead to prices falling 6.4% in 2027.Prices are expected to partly recover in 2028, rising 3.8%, supported by 50 basis points of forecast rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia in late 2027.Meanwhile, investor housing credit growth is expected to decline from a likely peak of more than 10% year over year in the June quarter to negative 0.8% in the first quarter of 2028, ANZ said. Total housing credit growth is expected to ease sharply to a low of 2.9% year over year in early 2028, from 7.1% in the March quarter.Over the medium term, a structural shift is expected in the composition of housing credit, with owner-occupier credit becoming a stronger source of growth.Total private sector credit growth should moderate to 4.2% by the March 2028 quarter from 7.8% in the March quarter before moving higher over the remainder of 2028, per the report.Business credit growth is forecast to slow to 6.6% year over year by the end of 2027 before recovering in 2028. Personal credit growth is seen easing to a low of 1.4% year over year in early 2028, the report said.

ASX Midday Sector Update: Materials Stocks Jump, Energy Sector Falls

Materials stocks advanced nearly 4% at midday Monday.BHP Group (ASX:BHP) gained more than 3% in recent trade.On the flip side, the energy sector struggled, shedding almost 4%.Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS) shares were down nearly 4% in recent trade after confirming it is not engaged in discussions on a potential acquisition with Exxon Mobil.

ASX Preview: Australian Shares Set to Rise After US-Iran Peace Deal; Atlas Arteria Says IFM Global Unit Raises Takeover Offer

Australian shares are poised to rise on Monday after US and Iranian officials agreed to a peace framework to end their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a sharp drop in oil prices and lifting global risk sentiment.On June 12, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.7%, respectively.In the macroeconomy, investors are eyeing the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision on Tuesday.In corporate news, Atlas Arteria (ASX:ALX) said IFM Global Infrastructure Fund subsidiary Diamond Infraco 1 has increased its takeover offer to AU$5.10 per security from AU$4.75 and declared it "best and final."ASX (ASX:ASX) has settled Federal Court proceedings with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) over misleading 2022 statements about its Chess replacement project, admitting a breach of the ASIC Act and agreeing to pay AU$20.5 million in penalties plus AU$3 million in legal costs, subject to court approval.Telstra Group (ASX:TLS) is in focus as investors weigh its outlook after SpaceX's June 12 listing.Australia's benchmark index rose nearly 2% or 170.8 points to close at 8,804 on June 12.

Australian Shares Rally; Magellan Financial Gets ACCC Approval for Barrenjoey Merger, Plans Group Rebranding

Australian shares rallied on Friday, following stocks on Wall Street higher, as investors reacted to rising hopes of a peace agreement to end the conflict in the Middle East.The S&P/ASX 200 Index jumped 1.98%, or 170.80 points, to close at 8,804.US President Donald Trump said the US had cancelled planned strikes against Iran, and that the US and Iran could sign a peace agreement as soon as ​this weekend. He said negotiations with Tehran had advanced to the highest ⁠levels of Iran's leadership. Brent oil futures fell to around $88 per barrel.Overnight, the S&P 500 rose 1.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained nearly 1.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.5%.On the domestic front, the number of seasonally adjusted filled jobs in Australia was unchanged from initial data, according to a report released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Filled jobs rose 0.6% to 16.2 million in the March quarter, following a 0.3% increase in the December 2025 quarter. Total jobs rose 0.7% to 16.5 million, while job vacancies were up 5.2% to 344,000.In company news, Magellan Financial Group (ASX:MFG) said the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission approved the company's merger with Barrenjoey Capital Partners. Magellan expects to complete the merger in early July, and it plans to seek shareholder approval at an Oct. 22 meeting to change its name to Barrenjoey Group.Monash IVF Group (ASX:MVF) now expects fiscal year 2026 underlying net profit after tax of AU$17 million to AU$18 million. It earlier guided for a full fiscal year underlying net profit after tax of AU$20 million. The outlook cut is driven by lower-than-expected activity in the Australian assisted reproductive technology market in the fiscal second half.Lastly, ANZ Group Holdings (ASX:ANZ, NZE:ANZ) said that ANZ Bank New Zealand Chief Executive and ANZ Bank group executive Antonia Watson will retire, effective Sept. 30. ANZ Bank New Zealand Chief Risk Officer Ben Kelleher was named as her successor, subject to Reserve Bank of New Zealand non-objection and other regulatory engagement.

Update: ASX Biggest Losers

(Updates to add tickers)Here are the ASX-listed companies with the biggest losses on Friday:Energy Resources of Australia (ASX:ERA): -20%, AU$0.002United Overseas Australia (ASX:UOS): -6%, AU$0.68Tamboran Resources (ASX:TBN): -7%, AU$0.22REA Group (ASX:REA): -4%, AU$141.51News Corp (ASX:NWS): -4%, AU$42.45Viva Energy Group (ASX:VEA): -4%, AU$2.24DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (ASX:DGT): -4%, AU$2.43Tuas (ASX:TUA): -3%, AU$2.62Anteris Technologies Global (ASX:AVR): -3%, AU$13.08Beach Energy (ASX:BPT): -2%, AU$1.06

ASX Biggest Losers

Here are the ASX-listed companies with the biggest losses on Friday:Energy Resources of Australia (ASX:ERA): -20%, AU$0.002United Overseas Australia (ASX:UOS): -6%, AU$0.68Tamboran Resources (ASX:TBN): -7%, AU$0.22REA Group (ASX:REA): -4%, AU$141.51News Corp (ASX:NWS): -4%, AU$42.45Viva Energy Group (ASX:VEA): -4%, AU$2.24DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (ASX:DGT): -4%, AU$2.43Tuas (ASX:TUA): -3%, AU$2.62Anteris Technologies Global (ASX:AVR): -3%, AU$13.08Beach Energy (ASX:BPT): -2%, AU$1.06

ASX Biggest Gainers

Here are the ASX-listed companies with the biggest gains on Friday:Minerals 260 (ASX:MI6): +13%, AU$0.85Pantoro Gold (ASX:PNR): +12%, AU$2.57Develop Global (ASX:DVP): +10%, AU$6.90PLS Group (ASX:PLS): +9%, AU$6.46Elevra Lithium (ASX:ELV): +9%, AU$11.65Genesis Minerals (ASX:GMD): +9%, AU$5.24Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL): +9%, AU$1.33Almonty Industries (ASX:AII): +9%, AU$24.04Imdex (ASX:IMD): +9%, AU$4.01Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR): +8%, AU$19.88