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Asia Week Ahead: Central Bank Decisions; Inflation; and Trade

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The week ahead in Asia will be packed with a number of central bank decisions and macroeconomic data, with investors set to track the impact of the Middle East conflict on regional economies.

The economic calendar starts quietly on Monday with services activity data from Japan, whole inflation figures from India and New Zealand's services PMI.

Activity picks up Tuesday as the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Japan announce policy decisions, while China releases a batch of closely watched activity indicators.

Wednesday shifts the focus to trade, with Japan and Singapore due to report May figures.

Thursday brings a cluster of central bank decisions from Taiwan, Indonesia and the Philippines, with New Zealand's first-quarter GDP and Thailand's trade data also on deck.

Friday rounds out the week with inflation data from Japan and Malaysia, with New Zealand reporting trade numbers.

Here's what to watch in the week ahead.

MONDAY, June 14

The week was off to a relatively light start with a handful of releases from India, New Zealand, and Japan.

Japan released its tertiary industry activity index for April, a measure of change in the total value of services provided and consumed by the country's service sector.

The index rose a seasonally adjusted 1.3% month on month, reversing from a 0.6% decline in the prior month and recording its first increase in three months.

It also beat the Trading Economics forecast of a 0.5% increase.

In New Zealand, the BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index fell to 47.5 in May from a downwardly revised 48.7 in April, marking a fourth straight month of contraction in the services sector. Trading Economics said the decline came as the Iran war weighed on business activity.

India's annual wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation rate rose to 9.68% year over year in May. The reading was higher than the consensus forecast of 9.10% tracked by Investing.com and compared with an 8.26% pace recorded in the prior month.

Later Monday, India reports unemployment stats for May.

TUESDAY, June 16

Macro activity picks up Tuesday with central bank decisions scheduled in Australia and Japan, and a slew of monthly data from China.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold the official cash rate steady at 4.35%, according to a Trading Economics consensus.

Economists at National Australia Bank said the latest decision would mark the end of the tightening cycle, with the next move likely down and now expected in the second quarter of 2027.

In contrast, the Bank of Japan is forecasted to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 1%, according to a Trading Economics consensus estimate.

Bloomberg reported earlier June that the central bank was considering raising the policy rate amid high uncertainties over the Middle East conflict. Officials were expected to sift through as much data as possible until the last minute before making a final decision, though the decision to raise rates was unlikely to be unanimous, according to the report.

China's industrial production and retail sales stats will also be in the news, alongside monthly unemployment and housing price data.

Markets will review the figures to gauge how well the country's economy is faring amid the Middle East conflict. According to the Wall Street Journal, the data is likely to indicate overall improvement and economic resilience despite the macro headwinds.

Hong Kong will report unemployment data the same day, while trade stats will be in focus in India and South Korea.

In New Zealand, markets will await food inflation data which is expected to show "modest increases," according to CommBank.

WEDNESDAY, June 17

Focus shifts Wednesday to trade data from Singapore and Japan.

Japan is expected to record a trade deficit of 564.6 billion yen in May, reversing from a 301.9 billion yen surplus a month earlier, according to a Trading Economics consensus.

Wednesday will also bring the Reuters Tankan Index for June, a key gauge of Japanese business confidence, along with monthly machinery orders data.

Meanwhile, Singapore's trade surplus is expected to narrow to $7 billion in May from $13.07 billion in April, according to Trading Economics. The city-state is also due to release monthly non-oil export data.

A forward-looking report from Westpac capturing consumer confidence in New Zealand is also scheduled for Wednesday.

THURSDAY, June 18

Central banks across Taiwan, Indonesia and The Philippines will meet for interest rate decisions Thursday.

Bank Indonesia will be in focus after it unexpectedly raised interest rates by 25 basis points earlier this month to support the rupiah.

While some economists expect the central bank to deliver another 25 basis point hike, ING expects Bank Indonesia to hold rates steady and instead prioritize alternative measures to attract foreign capital inflows and stabilize the currency.

The Philippines' central bank, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, is widely expected to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% amid persistent inflationary pressure, according to a Trading Economics consensus.

Meanwhile, Taiwan's central bank is expected to hold rates steady at 2%. ING said it will be monitoring the Central Bank of the Republic of China's press conference for clues on a possible rate hike in the third quarter.

Elsewhere, New Zealand will report its first quarter gross domestic product growth rate. CommBank said it expects quarterly growth to reach 0.8%, shy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's 1% forecast.

While the economy started 2026 with a decent moment, there will be "pockets of weakness" highlighting that economic recovery was a "bit patchy," CommBank said in a preview.

Lastly, Thursday will feature Thailand's trade figures for May.

FRIDAY, June 19

The week rounds off with closely watched inflation data from Japan.

According to ING, May's consumer prices could record a rise of 1.6% year on year, accelerating marginally from 1.4% in April. The subdued increase would reflect government measures, though price pressures are likely to broaden, ING said.

Malaysia's headline inflation, also due the same day, is similarly expected to show a marginal rise to 2% year-on-year in May from 1.9% in April due to government fuel subsidies and stable food prices, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing DBS.

Malaysia will additionally report monthly trade figures on Friday, while Macao will release monthly inflation data the same day.

Trade figures from New Zealand will also feature Friday. According to a Trading Economics consensus, New Zealand's May trade surplus could narrow to NZ$875 million from NZ$1.92 billion a month earlier.

South Korea's producer price inflation will also be among the highlights of the day.

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