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Asia Week Ahead: Interest Rate Decisions; Inflation Prints; Trade Numbers

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The week ahead in Ahead is packed with key releases, starting with industrial production data from Japan and inflation numbers from India.

Tuesday will see a slew of data from China, alongside India's trade figures and unemployment rate.

Mid-week, all eyes will be on an interest rate decision from the U.S., with a rate hike expected. Japan will post its trade data and machinery orders.

On Thursday, Singapore will publish trade numbers and unemployment rate, with an interest rate decision in Japan being the key release to close the week.

MONDAY, Sept. 14

Japan's industrial production rose 3.9% year over year in July, slower than a 4.9% growth in the previous month.

India's annual wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation rate increased to 9.92% year over year in August, up from 9.78% in July.

Additionally, Hong Kong's index of industrial production for manufacturing industries jumped 2.3% year over year in the second quarter, slower than a 3.1% rise in the first quarter.

India will publish consumer price index numbers for August later today, with a rise to 4.7% expected by ING economists.

TUESDAY, Sept. 15

China will release a slew of economic data on Tuesday.

Industrial output for the month is expected to rise to 4.9% in August from 4.5% in July, while retail sales may inch up to 0.7% from 0.6% earlier, according to economists at ING.

The country will also publish its unemployment rate and house price index for the month of August.

Elsewhere, India will post August trade and unemployment figures, while South Korea will also publish export and import price data.

WEDNESDAY, Sept. 16

The U.S. Fed may increase rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday amid persistent inflation and strong jobs numbers, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Investors will also look for signs of potential rate changes in the upcoming months.

Elsewhere, Japan's trade deficit is expected to come in at 1.053 trillion yen in August, with export and imports rising 18.2% and 26.3% respectively, according to market consensus forecast data posted by ING.

Machinery orders for July are projected to rise 9.2% year over year.

THURSDAY, Sept. 17

Experts at ING expect Taiwan to hike its interest rate to 2.13% from 2% previously.

Commerzbank Research analysts also project a rate hike by 12.5 basis points, while Citi economists expect rate policy to remain unchanged, the WSJ said.

Singapore will publish trade data for August and unemployment rate for the second quarter.

Non-oil domestic exports are expected to increase to 35% year over year, at a quicker pace than 24.2% in July, the WSJ said, citing DBS economists.

Elsewhere, Hong Kong will publish unemployment data and export and import volume numbers.

FRIDAY, Sept. 18

Japan is also projected to raise its interest rate to 1.25% from 1%, according to ING experts.

The country may see a slight rise in August inflation to 2% from 1.9% previously, while core inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 1.8%, market consensus forecast data from ING showed.

Malaysia is projected to post a rise in August inflation to 1.96% from 1.8% in July, the WSJ said, citing a note by Zhaopeng Xing, an economist at ANZ.

The country will also report trade numbers.

Elsewhere, South Korea will publish producer price index data for August.

What else is happening in International?

International

Supplier Costs for New Zealand Supermarkets Rise Nearly 2% in August

The Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index showed an average 1.9% year-over-year increase in supplier costs for supermarkets in August, unchanged from July's result, according to an Infometrics report on Monday.Supplier costs rose across all departments in August compared with a year earlier, with seafood and butchery costs remaining higher due to sustained global demand and pricing trends, although the pace of cost growth for chilled foods slowed a little amid slightly lower dairy costs."The August data continues a recent trend of a more elevated number of cost increases being recorded, but at a less intense pace than originally expected," said Brad Olsen, principal economist at Infometrics."Broader input cost data shows businesses were either less willing to raise costs, or unable to respond as quickly as the knock-on economic effects of the Middle East conflict emerged," Olsen added.The renewed conflict continues to cloud the cost outlook for the remainder of this year, with oil prices moving higher again and raising expectations for further cost adjustments in the coming months, Olsen said.

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International

Australia's Annual Pace of Inflation Expected to Rise in August, Westpac Says

Australia's consumer price index (CPI) is expected to rise 0.4% in August from the previous month, which would increase the annual pace of inflation to 4% from 3.5% in July, Westpac said in a Monday report.The bank expects a 0.7% monthly CPI increase on a seasonally adjusted basis.Meanwhile, the August trimmed mean measure of underlying inflation is expected to rise 0.2%, down from the 0.4% average over the previous three months and holding the annual pace steady at 3.6%, the bank said.Westpac also revised its CPI estimate for the third quarter to 1.3% from 1.1% previously, and now expects the quarterly trimmed mean to print at 0.9%, compared with a previous call of 0.8%."A stronger-than-expected July set a higher starting point which we expect to be partially unwound in August-September," the bank said, adding that it still foresees a moderation in the fourth quarter with the trimmed mean reading expected at 0.7%.Westpac now sees annual headline inflation at 2.4% by the end of 2027 and at 2.3% by the close of 2028, noting that its year-ended estimates are below the Reserve Bank of Australia's current forecasts.

ASX 200
International

New Zealand Farmer Perceptions of Current Economic Conditions in January Show Strongest Reading Since 2017

New Zealand farmer perceptions of present general economic conditions strengthened further to a net 37% viewing conditions as good in January, the strongest reading since 2017, according to the Federated Farmers' January Farm Confidence Survey released on Monday.The result indicates continued benefits from official cash rate cuts to 2.25%, strong commodity prices, and reduced debt servicing costs.In January 2025, farmer confidence rose 68 points since July 2024, rebounding to a net positive score of 2% from negative 66%.Forward sentiment in January was modestly positive at net 4%, down from 6% in July 2025, signaling a shift away from negativity since 2014. However, cost pressures and market volatility concerns continue to create a gap between strong current performance and a cautious future outlook.Current farm profitability reached a record 70%, with the recovery across most sectors stable, but profit expectations turned negative for the first time since early 2024, with a 21-point drop driven by dairy's decline to negative 32% due to margin concerns.

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