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USD/CAD Likely To Remain "Trapped" In a Range-bound Environment In Coming Months, RBC Says

USD/CAD is likely to remain "trapped" in a range-bound environment in the coming months, with the pair seen trading between 1.3500 and 1.3900, RBC Capital Markets said in its latest FX View note.RBC added its end-of-second-quarter forecast for USD/CAD stands at 1.3700.The bank said Friday's Canadian and U.S. employment reports point to both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve holding interest rates for now.Although, RBC noted, the Canadian employment series tends to be volatile, it said the latest print "pours some cold water on the possibility of a BoC rate hike in the short-term."Meanwhile, RBC said the "stabilizing" U.S. labour market further diminishes the risk of a near-term dovish Federal Reserve pivot, particularly as attention shifts to potential secondary-round inflation effects.RBC noted the outlook is also unfolding against the backdrop of the ongoing Iran conflict, "for which the path is uncertain.""As long as the USD is not experiencing a sustainable broad-based rally, this morning's Canadian data reinforce CAD's underperformance vs its commodity/higher yielding peers in the past month," the bank said.On technicals, RBC said last week's close below 1.3598 "reasserted the downtrend," suggesting that rallies are viewed as a selling opportunity. The bank noted USD/CAD was hovering around trendline resistance at 1.3674, with 1.3728 seen as the next resistance level. "If USD/CAD closes above the latter, then the risk is additional gains towards 1.3799 and 1.3856," RBC added.Support levels are seen at 1.3526 and 1.3482, according to the bank.

$$CXY$CAD$usd

International15h ago

Job Reports Not Enough To Take USD-CAD Out Of Its Range Bound Environment, RBC says

A softer Canadian jobs report today saw the unemployment rate up to 6.9% and resulted in a rates rally and curve steepening, RBC Capital Markets said in its latest CAD Weekly Soundbites note. But, the bank added, when that report is combined with the US labor report, that beat forecasts, it wasn't enough to take USD/CAD out of its range-bound environment.Canadian data also reinforced the Canadian dollar's underperformance versus its G10 commodity and higher-yielding peers over the past month, RBC said.On the Canadian economy, RBC noted the April jobs report showed a 0.2 percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, with weakness evident in goods sectors, trade and transport/warehousing, though private-paid employment and total hours worked were little changed in the month.Looking ahead, RBC said next week will not feature key Canadian data releases, although there will be a number of second-tier reports including housing market data, wholesale trade on Thursday and manufacturing sales on Friday. "The softening labour market YTD has not translated to the product market, where Q1 GDP is tracking above-potential including the March nowcast," it added.The bank added that investors will also watch inflation data in Norway, New Zealand inflation expectations, U.S. producer prices, second-quarter GDP revisions in the euro area, U.K. first-quarter GDP, U.S. retail sales, and Japanese producer prices. RBC also noted that the Bank of Japan and Riksbank will release minutes from their latest meetings, while Norges Bank's Financial Stability Report is due Tuesday.On rates, RBC said the Bank of Canada's expected hold last week was delivered, although "the balance of changes tilted hawkish." The bank noted GDP growth is tracking in the 1.5%-2% range in the first quarter, which would result in a lessening of excess slack in the economy if realized in the full expenditure breakdown. RBC added improved labour market outcomes are expected as part of slack reduction over the year. "We maintain our long-held view: base case is the BoC on hold in 2026, with hikes in 2027, but the chance of H2 hikes far exceeds the chance of a cut."Meanwhile, RBC noted Government of Canada bonds outperformed their U.S. Treasury counterparts following the weaker jobs report, with the Canada/U.S. 10-year spread tightening 5 basis points to at -89 basis points from last Friday.On technicals, RBC said after yields failed to close above the key double top at 3.62%, the move back below a trendline dating to late February, now at 3.54%, "eases some of the topside risks.""This opens 3.43% and 3.39% next on the downside," RBC added.

$$CXY$CAD$usd

International16h ago

USD's Weekly Coppock Curve "Still Nominally In An Uptrend" Vs CAD, "But It Is Peaking", says Rosenberg Research

Walter Murphy over at Rosenberg Research noted in a last comment in early April the U.S. dollar's weekly Coppock Curve was in a confirmed uptrend against the Canadian dollar and was on pace to remain constructive into the latter part of May. Five weeks on, the indicator is still nominally in an uptrend, but it is peaking, he said. More importantly, the greenback is currently a good deal below its early-April levels against the Canadian currency, "despite those seemingly favorable momentum conditions", he added.According to Murphy, April's promise was "overwhelmed" by the combination of the 2025-2026 resistance trendline and the lower reaches of C$1.402-C$1.417 chart resistance area. "Those two elements have clearly proven their mettle (again)," Murphy said.Murphy noted the greenback is currently in the middle of the C$1.375-C$1.340 support range, while the resistance line is now at C$1.385 and declining by C$0.001 per week. "At that rate, it will not challenge the upper portion of the support band until early July," Murphy said.The peaking Coppock indicator will likely enter a confirmed downtrend by the end of May, according to Murphy. However, he said, the resulting bearish bias may only continue for a relatively few weeks, "perhaps into late June or early July."Under those conditions, Murphy said there may not be enough time for the U.S. dollar to do much more than test the lower boundaries of the C$1.375-C$1.340 support area.He added the year-to-date lows in the C$1.353-C$1.348 range "would be expected to provide some intervening support."

$$CXY$CAD$usd

International17h ago

US Existing Homes Sales Pace Expected to Accelerate in April

The National Association of Realtors' measure of US existing-home sales is expected to accelerate to a 4.05 million annual rate in April, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg, after falling by 3.6% to a 3.98 million rate in March.Existing-home sales were at a 4.02 million rate in April 2025, so the year-over-year change would be slightly positive.The data are scheduled to be released at 10:00 am ET Monday.The pending home sales index, also produced by the NAR, was up 1.5% in March but was 1.1% below its reading a year ago. That measure is taken at contract signing and is meant to foreshadow movements in existing homes closings a month or two out.Recent mortgage application data from the Mortgage Bankers Association indicated that mortgage rates fell early in April before rising at the end of the month.

International17h ago

Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for May 8

The April employment report was mixed, with payrolls growth stronger than expected the unemployment rate unchanged, and hourly earnings growth slower than expected.Nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000 in April after an upwardly-revised 185,000 gain in March and a downwardly revised 156,000 decline in February. Private payrolls rose by 123,000, also above expectations and following a 190,000 gain in March.Health care and social assistance jobs rose by 53,900 in April while transportation and warehousing jobs rose by 30,300 and retail trade jobs advanced by 21,800.The unemployment rate remained at 4.3% in March, but the details suggested a deterioration in the employment picture. The labor force contracted by 92,000 as labor force participation declined. Household employment fell by 226,000 while the number of unemployed rose by 134,000.Average hourly earnings were up 0.2% in April, the same as in March, but lifting the year-over-year rate to 3.6% from 3.4%.The preliminary Michigan Sentiment index fell to 48.2 in May from 49.8 in April.According to Michigan, consumers' assessment of current conditions deteriorated in May due to continued concerns about the Middle East conflict, but the near-term outlook improved on lower inflation expectations.March wholesale inventories were revised lower to a 1.3% increase from a 1.4% gain in the advance reading.At the same time, wholesale sales increased by 2.8%, faster than expected.Combined with already released data for the retail and factory levels of distribution, business inventories are on track for a 0.9% gain while business sales are tracking up 2.1%. Both will be released on May 14, when updated retail inventory and sales estimates will be released.The Q2 GDPnow initial estimate from the St. Louis Fed is for a 1.980% gain.The Q2 GDP nowcast estimate from the Atlanta Fed is for a 3.7% gain, unrevised from the previous estimate.

International18h ago

Cargo Traffic to Los Angeles Port Expected to Fall in Week Ending May 23

Cargo traffic at the Port of Los Angeles is expected to fall in the week ending May 23, according to data from the ship-tracking system Port Optimizer.A total of 103,650 20-foot equivalent units, a standardized measure of cargo capacity, are projected to reach the port in the week, the data showed. That volume reflects a roughly 14% decrease from the previous week and a 0.7% rise from a year earlier.Eighteen freight vessels are scheduled to arrive at the port in the week ending May 23, the data showed. That is fewer than the 19 vessels during this week and 21 scheduled for the week ending May 16.

International19h ago

TSX Up Near 190 Points at Midday With Most Sectors Higher, Led By Base Metals and Energy

The Toronto Stock Exchange is up near 190 points early Friday afternoon with most sectors higher.Base Metals and Energy are the best performers, up near 2.6% and 1.0%, respectively.Info tech, down 1.25%, is the biggest decliner.On the economics front, focus was on the release of Canada jobs data for April. Over at Desjardins, Tiago Figueiredo said Canada's labour market remained soft in April, with elevated energy prices likely adding to the strain. He noted after stabilizing in March, the economy shed 17.7K jobs in April, lifting the unemployment rate two ticks to 6.9%. All of the job losses were in full-time positions while part-time employment saw a gain of 29K.Figueiredo said rising energy prices may have played some role here: job losses were concentrated in the transportation, recreation and construction sectors. Across provinces, there was notable weakness in Quebec, but that was largely offset by a rebound in Ontario. Additionally, there was no real evidence of additional hiring in the energy sector in Alberta.Among the key points, Figueiredo noted the unemployment rate rose to the highest level since October of last year. Separately, wage growth accelerated again in April, but Statistics Canada pointed out that the recent acceleration is a result of changes in the composition of employment. Using a fixed-weight measure shows that wages increased 3.4% in April, consistent with fixed-weight rates seen in February and March."Despite some regional weakness, the details of today's release suggest the labour market is soft but not falling off a cliff. Given that policymakers need to balance this weakness with upside risks to inflation, we continue to expect the Bank of Canada remains on hold for the remainder of this year," Figueiredo said.CIBC's view is that continued trade uncertainty and increased energy costs are likely making companies wary of adding to their workforce, and these worries are unlikely to ease in the near-term. The bank sees the unemployment rate holding near current levels throughout much of the year. With ample slack in the labour market, its less likely that core measures of inflation will accelerate much in the months ahead, and as a result CIBC doesn't think the Bank of Canada will need to respond to the current oil price shock by raising interest rates. CIBC continues to forecast no change in interest rates throughout 2026.

$^GSPTSE$.GSPTSE$$CXY

International20h ago

Atlanta Fed US Q2 GDP Nowcast Estimate Unrevised at 3.7% Gain

International20h ago

St. Louis Fed US Initial Q2 GDP Nowcast Estimate 1.980% Gain

International20h ago

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Falls More Than Expected in Preliminary May Survey

The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 48.2 in May from 49.8 in April, lower than the expectations for a smaller decrease to 49.5 in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.The current conditions index decreased to 47.8 in May from 52.5 in April, while the expectations reading rose to 48.5 from 48.1.Michigan said cost pressures, led by soaring gasoline prices continue to be a major concern for consumers."Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall," Michigan noted.Respondents saw one-year inflation expectations at 4.5%, down from 4.7% in April, while five-year inflation expectations fell to 3.4% from 3.5%.The twice-monthly Michigan Sentiment index measures consumer sentiment early in the current month (the preliminary estimate) and is then revised later in the month (the final estimate). The headline index is a combination of the current assessment and expectations for the near future.An increase in the reading suggests consumers are more confident, a positive for stocks if that confidence translates into spending. Increased demand is usually inflationary, a negative for bonds.

International22h ago

March Wholesale Inventories Revised Lower From Advance Estimate; Sales Jump

Wholesale inventories rose by 1.3% in March, revised lower from a 1.4% increase in the advance reading and following a 0.9% gain in February.Analysts in a survey compiled by Bloomberg expected March inventories to be unrevised.Durable wholesale inventories increased by 0.2%, while nondurables inventories rose by 3.2%.Wholesale sales increased by 2.8% in March after a 2.6% gain in February, led by a 1.6% increase in automotive sales. Analysts expected a 1.8% gain in wholesale sales.When combined with already released data at the retail and factory levels, business inventories are tracking for a 0.9% gain, while business sales are tracking up 2.1%. The report on business inventories and sales will be released on May 14.

International22h ago

March US Wholesale Sales Rise 2.8% vs 1.8% Gain Expected, Prior 2.6% Increase

International22h ago

March US Wholesale Inventories Rise 1.3% Vs Unrevised 1.4% Gain Expected, Prior 0.9% Gain

International22h ago

May Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 48.2 Vs. Expected 49.5, Prior 49.8

International23h ago

Chinese Investments in Brazil Reach $6.1 Billion in 2025, Research Says

China invested $6.1 billion across 52 projects, making Latin America's top economy China's number one investment destination in 2025, the China-Brazil Business Council said in its annual report Thursday.The value is 45% higher compared with the year-ago period, while the number of investments is 33% higher year over year, the council said.Brazil comprised about 11% of China's overseas investments, the CEBC said.

$^SSEC$^SZSE

International23h ago

April US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise More Than Expected, Unemployment Rate Steady

The April employment report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000, above the 65,000 jobs increase expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg, while March payrolls were revised up to a 185,000 increase and February payrolls were revised down to a 156,000 decrease.Private payrolls rose by 123,000 in April after a 190,000 increase in March, well above the increase of 75,000 private jobs expected. Health care and social assistance jobs added 53,900 to the payrolls total.The unemployment rate remained at 4.3% in April, as expected, while the labor force participation rate fell to 61.8% from 61.9% in March and the size of the labor force declined.Hourly earnings rose by 0.2%, slower than the 0.3% gain expected, and following a 0.2% increase in March. Hourly earnings were up 3.6% year-over-year.The average workweek rose to 34.3 hours from 34.2 hours in March, above the 34.2 hours expected.The monthly employment report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics consists of two separate surveys and is considered the most important data release for the month. The survey of businesses measures the levels of employment and wages and the length of the average workweek, broken down by industry.The survey of households measures the number of people working or looking for work, the unemployment rate, those who have left the workforce and reasons for part-time work.Market reaction can be mixed, particularly when the two surveys disagree. A strong increase in employment or a decline in the unemployment rate is generally a positive for stocks as a sign of a strong US economy, but bonds would react negatively to the same news, particularly if wages rise sharply at the same time.

International23h ago

April US Hourly Earnings Rise 0.2% Vs. Expected 0.3% Gain, Prior 0.2% Gain

International23h ago

April US Unemployment Rate 4.3% Vs. Expected 4.3%, Prior 4.3%

International23h ago

April US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise 115,000 Vs. Expected 65,000 Gain, Prior Revised 185,000 Gain

Showing 1-20 of 846

International15h ago

Job Reports Not Enough To Take USD-CAD Out Of Its Range Bound Environment, RBC says

$$CXY$CAD$usd

Financial News · Live Terminal

USD/CAD Likely To Remain "Trapped" In a Range-bound Environment In Coming Months, RBC Says

Job Reports Not Enough To Take USD-CAD Out Of Its Range Bound Environment, RBC says

USD's Weekly Coppock Curve "Still Nominally In An Uptrend" Vs CAD, "But It Is Peaking", says Rosenberg Research

US Existing Homes Sales Pace Expected to Accelerate in April

Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for May 8

Cargo Traffic to Los Angeles Port Expected to Fall in Week Ending May 23

TSX Up Near 190 Points at Midday With Most Sectors Higher, Led By Base Metals and Energy

Atlanta Fed US Q2 GDP Nowcast Estimate Unrevised at 3.7% Gain

St. Louis Fed US Initial Q2 GDP Nowcast Estimate 1.980% Gain

Top Midday Stories: Nvidia Chips Said at Center of Smuggling Probe; TCI Slashes Nearly All Its $8 Billion Microsoft Stake

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Falls More Than Expected in Preliminary May Survey

March Wholesale Inventories Revised Lower From Advance Estimate; Sales Jump

March US Wholesale Sales Rise 2.8% vs 1.8% Gain Expected, Prior 2.6% Increase

March US Wholesale Inventories Rise 1.3% Vs Unrevised 1.4% Gain Expected, Prior 0.9% Gain

May Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 48.2 Vs. Expected 49.5, Prior 49.8

Chinese Investments in Brazil Reach $6.1 Billion in 2025, Research Says

April US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise More Than Expected, Unemployment Rate Steady

April US Hourly Earnings Rise 0.2% Vs. Expected 0.3% Gain, Prior 0.2% Gain

April US Unemployment Rate 4.3% Vs. Expected 4.3%, Prior 4.3%

April US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise 115,000 Vs. Expected 65,000 Gain, Prior Revised 185,000 Gain

USD/CAD Likely To Remain "Trapped" In a Range-bound Environment In Coming Months, RBC Says

Job Reports Not Enough To Take USD-CAD Out Of Its Range Bound Environment, RBC says

USD's Weekly Coppock Curve "Still Nominally In An Uptrend" Vs CAD, "But It Is Peaking", says Rosenberg Research

US Existing Homes Sales Pace Expected to Accelerate in April

Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for May 8

Cargo Traffic to Los Angeles Port Expected to Fall in Week Ending May 23

TSX Up Near 190 Points at Midday With Most Sectors Higher, Led By Base Metals and Energy

Atlanta Fed US Q2 GDP Nowcast Estimate Unrevised at 3.7% Gain

St. Louis Fed US Initial Q2 GDP Nowcast Estimate 1.980% Gain

Top Midday Stories: Nvidia Chips Said at Center of Smuggling Probe; TCI Slashes Nearly All Its $8 Billion Microsoft Stake

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Falls More Than Expected in Preliminary May Survey

March Wholesale Inventories Revised Lower From Advance Estimate; Sales Jump

March US Wholesale Sales Rise 2.8% vs 1.8% Gain Expected, Prior 2.6% Increase

March US Wholesale Inventories Rise 1.3% Vs Unrevised 1.4% Gain Expected, Prior 0.9% Gain

May Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 48.2 Vs. Expected 49.5, Prior 49.8

Chinese Investments in Brazil Reach $6.1 Billion in 2025, Research Says

April US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise More Than Expected, Unemployment Rate Steady

April US Hourly Earnings Rise 0.2% Vs. Expected 0.3% Gain, Prior 0.2% Gain

April US Unemployment Rate 4.3% Vs. Expected 4.3%, Prior 4.3%

April US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise 115,000 Vs. Expected 65,000 Gain, Prior Revised 185,000 Gain