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July US Median Inflation Expectations Decelerate for Short Term, Unchanged for Medium Term, According to NY Fed Survey

Consumer expectations for one-year US inflation growth decelerated to a 3.6% gain in July from a 3.7% gain in the previous month, according to a survey released by the New York Federal Reserve Bank on Friday.The median inflation expectations remained at a 3.3% gain for the three-year period and remained at a 3.0% gain for five years ahead for the eleventh straight month.The median inflation uncertainty slowed to 2.7% from 2.9% in the one-year horizon but remained at a 2.8% for the three-year outlook.Median home price change expectations remained at 3.2% while home price uncertainty remained at 3.3% increase in the previous month.The median one-year expectations commodity prices growth rose for gas and cost of college education, fell for medical care, rent and gold, but was unchanged for food.Earnings growth expectations remained at 2.8%, while earning growth uncertainty fell. Expectations for losing a job increased but so did expectations of finding one.

July US Median Five-Year Inflation Expectations 3.0% Increase Vs. Prior 3.0% Increase, NY Fed Says

July US Median Three-Year Inflation Expectations 3.3% Increase Vs. Prior 3.3% Increase, NY Fed Says

July US Median One-Year Inflation Expectations 3.6% Increase Vs. Prior 3.7% Increase, NY Fed Says

International5h ago

Update: Canada's Labor Report Is Better Than Expected in July as the Jobless Rate Falls to a Two-Year Low

(Adds economist comment in paragraph seven.)The Canadian labor market continued to improve in July, with stronger employment growth and the jobless rate reaching its lowest point in two years, the country's statistical agency said on Friday.Employment rose by 75,000 jobs, or 0.4% monthly, while the unemployment rate eased 0.1 percentage point to 6.4%, its lowest level since July 2024, said Statistics Canada in its monthly Labour Force Survey (LFS).July's job gains easily topped a 20,000 expected increase and a 6.5% unemployment rate forecast in a Bloomberg survey.The strongest employment gains came from core-aged workers aged 25 to 54, where employment rose by 51,000, or 0.4% monthly, led largely by an increase of 33,000 jobs, or 0.5%, among women, added StatsCan.July employment growth was supported by strength across multiple sectors, with wholesale and retail trade adding 21,000 positions, while finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing, professional services, and construction recorded gains of 18,000, 17,000 and 16,000, respectively. These improvements were partly offset by employment declines in public administration and agriculture.Wage growth slowed down in July, with average hourly earnings rising 2.8% year over year to C$37.17, following a 3.3% increase in June, the agency said."Job growth was pretty evenly split between full and part time roles, and by sector was led by wholesale & retail, finance, professional services and construction. The unemployment rate edged down further for core aged (25-54) and young workers (aged 15-24), with this summer's student job market stronger than those see in the prior two years," CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham said in a note.The monthly LFS estimates are based on a sample and are as such subject to sampling variability. As a result, monthly estimates will show more variability than trends observed over longer time periods. This analysis focuses on differences between estimates that are statistically significant at the 68% confidence level. The LFS estimates at the Canada level do not include the territories.

International5h ago

Canada's Labor Report Is Better Than Expected in July as the Jobless Rate Falls to the Lowest Level in Two Years

The Canadian labor market continued to improve in July, with stronger employment growth and the jobless rate reaching its lowest point in two years, the country's statistical agency said on Friday.Employment rose by 75,000 jobs, or 0.4% monthly, while the unemployment rate eased 0.1 percentage point to 6.4%, its lowest level since July 2024, said Statistics Canada in its monthly Labour Force Survey (LFS).July's job gains easily topped a 20,000 expected increase and a 6.5% unemployment rate forecast in a Bloomberg survey.The strongest employment gains came from core-aged workers aged 25 to 54, where employment rose by 51,000, or 0.4% monthly, led largely by an increase of 33,000 jobs, or 0.5%, among women, added StatsCan.July employment growth was supported by strength across multiple sectors, with wholesale and retail trade adding 21,000 positions, while finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing, professional services, and construction recorded gains of 18,000, 17,000 and 16,000, respectively. These improvements were partly offset by employment declines in public administration and agriculture.Wage growth slowed down in July, with average hourly earnings rising 2.8% year over year to C$37.17, following a 3.3% increase in June, the agency said.The monthly LFS estimates are based on a sample and are as such subject to sampling variability. As a result, monthly estimates will show more variability than trends observed over longer time periods. This analysis focuses on differences between estimates that are statistically significant at the 68% confidence level. The LFS estimates at the Canada level do not include the territories.

The Philippine's GDP Rises 2.3% in Q2

The Philippine's GDP grew 2.3% year over year in the second quarter of 2026, according to a Friday release by the Philippine Statistics Authority.The reading compared with a GDP increase of 2.8% in the first quarter and missed the 2.8% growth forecast tracked by Investing.com.Gross national income rose 2.2% year over year.

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July US Nonfarm Payrolls Fall Unexpectedly, Unemployment Rate Lower

The July employment report showed nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, compared with the 80,000 jobs increase expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:35 am ET, while June payrolls were revised downwards to a 20,000 increase and May payrolls were revised down to a 63,000 increase, for a net downward revision of 103,000 jobs.Private payrolls rose by 30,000 in July, the same as in June and well below the increase of 82,000 private jobs expected. Health care and social assistance sector jobs increased by 22,600 but government sector jobs decreased by 53,000, leisure and hospitality jobs fell by 40,000 and retail payrolls declined by 19,400.The preliminary benchmark revision for nonfarm payrolls is due to be released on Aug. 28.The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June, compared with a 4.2% rate expected, while the labor force participation rate declined to 61.4% from 61.5% in June and the size of the labor force contracted. Household employment fell but household employment fell at a faster rate.Hourly earnings rose by only 0.1%, slower than the 0.3% gain expected, and following a 0.3% increase in June. Hourly earnings were up 3.2% year-over-year.The average workweek remained at 34.3 hours in July, as expected.The monthly employment report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics consists of two separate surveys and is considered the most important data release for the month. The survey of businesses measures the levels of employment and wages and the length of the average workweek, broken down by industry.The survey of households measures the number of people working or looking for work, the unemployment rate, those that have left the workforce and reasons for part-time work.Market reaction can be mixed, particularly when the two surveys disagree. A strong increase in employment or a decline in the unemployment rate is generally a positive for stocks as sign of a strong US economy, but bonds would react negatively to the same news, particularly if wages rise sharply at the same time.

Canada's July 6.4% Unemployment Rate Is the Lowest in Two Years

Canada's Average Hourly Wages Among Employees Up 2.8% Y/Y in July

Canada's Unemployment Rate at 6.4% in July; Bloomberg Survey Saw at 6.5%

Canada Gains 75,000 Jobs, or 0.4% M/M, in July; Bloomberg Survey Saw 20,000 Increase

July US Hourly Earnings Rise 0.1% Vs. Expected 0.3% Gain, Prior 0.3% Gain

July US Unemployment Rate 4.1% Vs. Expected 4.2%, Prior 4.2%