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Australia's Annual Pace of Inflation Expected to Rise in August, Westpac Says

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Australia's consumer price index (CPI) is expected to rise 0.4% in August from the previous month, which would increase the annual pace of inflation to 4% from 3.5% in July, Westpac said in a Monday report.

The bank expects a 0.7% monthly CPI increase on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Meanwhile, the August trimmed mean measure of underlying inflation is expected to rise 0.2%, down from the 0.4% average over the previous three months and holding the annual pace steady at 3.6%, the bank said.

Westpac also revised its CPI estimate for the third quarter to 1.3% from 1.1% previously, and now expects the quarterly trimmed mean to print at 0.9%, compared with a previous call of 0.8%.

"A stronger-than-expected July set a higher starting point which we expect to be partially unwound in August-September," the bank said, adding that it still foresees a moderation in the fourth quarter with the trimmed mean reading expected at 0.7%.

Westpac now sees annual headline inflation at 2.4% by the end of 2027 and at 2.3% by the close of 2028, noting that its year-ended estimates are below the Reserve Bank of Australia's current forecasts.

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International

TSX Closer: The Index Rises on Stronger Tech and Financial Issues

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed higher on Friday as gains in technology, industrial and financial stocks outweighed weakness in energy, while investors assessed lower oil prices and fresh Canadian economic data.The index closed up 191.21 points, or 0.5%, to 35,697.49 with mixed sectors. Information Technology led advancers, up 3.6%, followed by Industrials and Financial that closed up 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively. Energy was down 0.7%.The Battery Metals Index, which includes companies listed both on the TSX and TSX Venture Exchange, dropped 6.4%.In commodities, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude fell on Friday as reports of possible diplomatic efforts to ease tensions around the Strait of Hormuz tempered concerns over immediate supply disruptions following Thursday's sharp rally. The October WTI crude oil contract settled down $2.43, or 2.3%, to $100.05 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen down $2.68, or 2.5%, to $104.95 per barrel.Meanwhile, December Comex gold futures dropped 0.4%, or $19.30, to $4,388.00 per ounce at last look.In currencies, the US dollar edged higher 0.2% against the Canadian dollar, with USD/CAD at 1.3864 at last look. However, Scotiabank expects USD/CAD to fall, with a target of $1.37 by year-end and $1.33 by the last quarter of 2027. The loonie has remained resilient despite heightened trade tensions, with economic data suggesting the Canadian economy continues to show strength, wrote the bank in a note.On household finances, Canadian household net worth climbed 2.9% quarter over quarter in the second quarter to more than CA$19 trillion, fueled by equity market gains that boosted the value of household assets, Statistics Canada said on Friday.Household liabilities rose 1.3% in the second quarter, with residential mortgages making up nearly three-quarters of total household debt. While household credit market debt as a share of disposable income fell from 178.6% to 176.4%, marking its largest quarterly decline since the third quarter of 2024, the agency said.In corporate news, Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO) and the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO) both announced multi-billion dollar initiatives to support critical sectors in the Canadian economy. BMO said Friday it plans to mobilize up to CA$70 billion over 10 years, targeting electricity, energy and transportation infrastructure, among other sectors including defense, mining and artificial intelligence. CIBC late Thursday committed CA$2 billion to support funding for small and medium-sized defense-related and dual-use businesses across Canada.

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International

Canadian Economic Growth Can Be Resilient Despite Tariffs, Macquarie Bank Says

Canada's growth can remain resilient even if some industries are negatively impacted by trade tensions with the United States, Macquarie Bank said in a note.Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will host the Canada Investment Summit in Toronto Sept. 14-15, in what the government has called the first-of-its-kind gathering in the country. It comes after the US imposed tariffs on Canada, which were met by Canadian counter-tariffs.Trade diversification is already underway, Macquarie said.Over the past 18 months export growth to the rest of the world outperformed, wrote Macquarie economists David Doyle and Chinara Azizova in a recent note. Canada's premiers are also making progress on reducing inter-provincial trade barriers, with the IMF calculating that doing so could boost Canada's real gross domestic product per worker by nearly 7%.Employment gains have also been solid and housing-related activity and prices are stabilizing, they added.Canada also retains several advantages, including a AAA credit rating, low government debt as a share of GDP, and low federal deficit as share of GDP. The Federal government also enjoys strong public support.Apart from streamlining critical minerals and energy projects to boost growth, the economists noted the rise of data center investments, already an important growth driver in the US."There is growing evidence that the same drivers are emerging in Canada and could be set to propel growth ahead," the economists added, noting that Alberta currently accounts for 92% of planned data centre capacity.They pointed out that in Canada there was a 59% month-on-month surge in June for imports of computers and computer peripherals. The increase was driven by imports of processing units (of the type used in data centers) coming from the US.

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International

Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for Sept. 11

The consumer price index rose by 0.4% in August, as expected, and was up 0.3% excluding food and energy prices, above expectations for a 0.2% gain.The year-over-year growth rate remained at 3.4% while the core measure was up 2.4% year-over-year after a 2.5% rate in the previous month.Food prices rose by 0.1%, while energy prices increased by 2.1%. Gasoline prices alone were up 3.9%.Owners' equivalent rents and regular rents both rose by 0.2%, accounting for about one-third of the overall gain.In addition, prices of new vehicles rose by 0.3% after a 0.1% gain in the previous month and used vehicle prices rose by 0.4% for a second straight month.The preliminary Michigan Sentiment index fell to 47.8 in September from 51.7 in August.Consumers' assessment of current conditions and the near-term outlook both deteriorated in September, while inflation expectations surged.The US Treasury reported a $166.80 billion budget gap in August, much smaller than the $344.79 billion deficit reported in August 2025 due to larger receipts and smaller outlays.The Q3 GDPnow estimate from the St. Louis Federal Reserve is for a 2.405% gain, revised up from a 2.367% gain in the previous estimate, while the estimate from the New York Fed was unrevised at a 2.26% gain.